Status Quo, Potentials Challenges of Renewables in Japan
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1 Status Quo, Potentials Challenges of Renewables in Japan 25 May 2016 Asia Super Grid (ASG) Workshop JW Marriott Hotel Kang Nam, Seoul, South Korea Tomoki Ehara, E-konzal
2 Status quo of energy supply and renewables in Japan 1
3 Current power supply situation in Japan Japan import 94.6% of energy from abroad in After Fukushima disaster, Japanese power supply situation changed drastically. The share of renewables becomes visible, but not that great yet. TWh 1,200 1, Renewables Pumped-storage hydro Oil LNG Hydro Coal Nuclear
4 Feed in tariff as a driver Feed in tariff scheme was introduced in 2012 FIT played important role as a driver for renewables Solar consists 96% of Newly installed REN Many approved plants have not been started its operation yet. Comparison of REN Approved and Installed under FIT GW Annual Growth rate 5% REN boost after FIT Annual Growth rate 32% Annual Growth rate 9% Solar Wind S/M Hydro Geother mal Biomass 5 0 Purchasing residential surplus electricity Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) FY Feed in Tariff (FIT) 3
5 Feed in tariff as a driver Unit:Yen/kwh Duration FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 Solar <10kw 10kw 10 years Wind Small-Mid Hydro (Newly built) Geothermal Biomass Onshore <20kw Onshore 20kw Offshore 20kw <200kw 200-1,000kw 1,000-30,000kw <15,000 kw 15,000 kw Methane gasification Woody biomass (forest thinnings) Agricultural biomass Construction waste Other waste 15 years 15 years
6 Challenges ahead 5
7 Pending the FIT interconnection procedure by utilities Kyusyu electric company announced to stop procedures for FIT interconnection due to supply security concern in Hokkaido, Tohoku, Shikoku follow the decision. The approved capacities of renewable power plants was higher than the peak demand in the summer. 6
8 Structural reform of power supply system The challenge is the integration of 10 regional power grids Structural reforms of the power supply systems are in place after 2013 The objectives are Expansion of inter-regional grid management Full liberalization of retail and power generation market Ensuring the neutrality of transition and distribution sector by legal separation 10 Regional power company have had a virtual monopoly on power supply market Hokkaido Tohoku Hokuriku Tokyo Shikoku Chubu Kansai Kyushu Shikoku Okinawa 7
9 Where are we going? 8
10 Global decisions to go for Zero-carbon Paris agreement in COP 21 clearly stated the target of net-zero carbon society in the second half of this century Considering the risks of nuclear power and technical/political uncertainty of CCS, renewable energy must play central role to achieve our global climate change goal. Article 4 In order to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2, Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that peaking will take longer for developing country Parties, and to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with best available science, so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century,. 9
11 Options to go net-zero carbon Conventional Power Plant +CCS Renewables Nuclear 10
12 Renewable Energy Potential in Japan Renewable Energy Potential in 2050 (High case) Residential PV 170 GW Non-Residential PV 103 GW There are still large RE potential in Japan Most of the potential are in Solar/Wind Controlling / Managing the unstable intermittent power output is the key Onshore Wind Offshore Wind 35GW 35 GW Mid-Small Hydro 19GW Large Hydro 12GW Geo thermal 8 GW Biomass 7GW 8.5GW 22.3GW 3GW 0 GW 10GW 11GW 0.5GW 4.7GW Renewable Energy Exploited (As of Jan 2016) Ref. MoE Japan/METI Japan 11
13 Remarks and Expectation on Asia Super Grid Given that our ultimate goal is to achieve a net zero carbon society, renewable energy has to play central role. Japan has a great potential to expand the use of renewables especially for solar and wind Grid issues including controlling and dispatching the intermittent renewable energy need to be overcome Domestically, structural reform of power supply system is on the way. The reform will improve the grid capacity to some extent, but can not solve the issue completely. Asia Super Grid can be a solution 12
14 Dream? It may come true.. 13
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