Roundtable 2: Energy Efficiency and Demand Management. John Jimison, Energy Future Coalition Alexandra Langenheld, Agora Energiewende Co-Chairs

Transcription

1 Roundtable 2: Energy Efficiency and Demand Management John Jimison, Energy Future Coalition Alexandra Langenheld, Agora Energiewende Co-Chairs

2 Efficiency has already been the largest recent source of incremental energy We used one-fourth of the amount of incremental energy projected in 1970 to produce the projected growth of national GDP in By 2010, our energy consumption is less than half the level forecast in 1970 as necessary to sustain the target level of economic growth. 200 U.S. Energy Consumption Actual Energy Use 1973 Projection

3 EJ Mtoe The same gains were made in 11 International Energy Agency nations Between 1974 and 2010, EE was the largest energy resource. Cumulative avoided energy consumption due to energy efficiency in these 11 IEA countries amounted to over EJ (32 billion toe) Hypothetical energy use had there been no energy efficiency improvements Total final Consumption (TFC) Avoided energy equal to 65% of 2010 TFC Coal Oil Gas Electricity Other Avoided energy use TFC IEA EEMR 2013

4 Despite these gains, the remaining potential EE is huge

5 Energy Flows and Waste Streams

6 Despite these gains, the remaining potential EE is huge The US in 2011 delivered 41.7 Quads (quadrillion Btus) of useful energy to economic sectors. The US threw away 55.6 Quads of primary energy in the process -- 57% of the total consumed (27% from power plants, 21% from transportation, and 9% from all other sectors).

7 Despite these gains, the remaining potential EE is huge The US in 2011 delivered 41.7 Quads (quadrillion Btus) of useful energy to economic sectors. The US threw away 55.6 Quads of primary energy in the process -- 57% of the total consumed (27% from power plants, 21% from transportation, and 9% from all other sectors). The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy has calculated that, of the 41.7 Quads actually delivered for its purposes, we could provide today s energy services at current levels using state-of-the-art technologies in buildings, equipment, and vehicles and reduce delivered energy consumption by 86%!

8 The Advantages of Energy Efficiency Most abundant potential energy source Shortest lead-time Lowest cost incremental source of energy Primarily uses on-the-shelf technologies Cleanest no incremental emissions Wholly domestic no national security considerations Least obtrusive no land use impacts, NIMBY issues Gained at end-use level leverages all conversion losses Lowers energy costs across the board Keeps producing indefinitely non-depletable Zero carbon, reduces use of carbon-based energy Available in every region of the nation (and world) Most job-intensive activity in the energy sector

9 The Disadvantages of Energy Efficiency Requires hundreds of millions of individual decisions Almost all of which are driven primarily by non-energy factors With significant individual transaction costs, modest individual gains Usually requiring significant up-front capital investment Usually under varied state or local law or regulations, not national policy Requires efforts to measure and verify Can be self-defeating by reducing energy costs the rebound effect Requires knowledge, skills, and awareness of energy economics that most consumers do not have. Consumer prices are disguised by averaging (especially in gas and electricity), so price signals for efficiency are missing or distorted. Key Disadvantage: EE has no major political constituencies among voters or industries. Most advantages are societal, not individual, therefore require government policy to create conditions for achieving them.

10 The Advantages of Energy Efficiency Most abundant potential energy source Shortest lead-time Lowest cost incremental source of energy Primarily uses on-the-shelf technologies Cleanest no incremental emissions Wholly domestic no national security considerations Least obtrusive no land use impacts, NIMBY issues Gained at end-use level leverages all conversion losses Lowers energy costs across the board Keeps producing indefinitely non-depletable Zero carbon, reduces use of carbon-based energy Available in every region of the nation (and world) Most job-intensive activity in the energy sector

11 Projections After economic crisis and ARRA 09, 2013 EIA Annual Energy Outlook Projected U.S. Energy Consumption Actual 1973 Projection AEO 2005 AEO 2009 ARRA 2009 AEO 2013

12 Annual Percent Growth in Electricity Demand Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2012, EIA, June 2012

13 Gt EE a key element for CC Mitigation Energy-related CO 2 emission abatement in the 450 Scenario New Policies Scenario ~ 4 C 450 Scenario ~ 2 C

14 Gt EE a key element for CC Mitigation Energy-related CO 2 emission abatement in the 450 Scenario New Policies Scenario ~ 4 C 450 Scenario ~ 2 C CO 2 abatement Activity 2% 2% End-use efficiency 18% 13% Power plant efficiency 3% 2% Electricity savings 50% 27% Fuel and technology switching in end-uses 2% 3% Renewables 15% 23% Biofuels 2% 4% Nuclear 5% 8% CCS 4% 17% Total (Gt CO 2 )

15 Gt EE a key element for CC Mitigation Energy-related CO 2 emission abatement in the 450 Scenario New Policies Scenario ~ 4 C 450 Scenario ~ 2 C CO 2 abatement End-use efficiency 18% 13% Power plant efficiency 3% 2% Electricity savings 50% 27%

16 Energy Efficiency Measures Alone Could Meet US Climate Targets 200 Projected U.S. Energy Consumption Actual AEO 2013 Fossil 20% CO2 Potential EE

17 Key Questions How do we implement all cost-effective energy efficiency measures, not merely those with the shortest paybacks? How do we overcome pushback to update building and appliance standards as improved technologies permit?