Land Subsidence Simulation and Implications in Deltas. Mahmoud Bakr National Water Research Center

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1 Land Subsidence Simulation and Implications in Deltas. Mahmoud Bakr National Water Research Center

2 Contents - Definition, causes, symptoms, and Data acquisition. - Method of analysis and simulation - Case study of Jakarta - Land subsidence in the Nile Delta

3 Definition Land subsidence is the lowering of the land surface due to changes that take place underground. San Joaquin Valley subsidence Mining ground water for agriculture has enabled the San Joaquin Valley of California to become one of the world s most productive agricultural regions, while simultaneously contributing to one of the single largest alterations of the land surface attributed to humankind 9 m of land subsidence between (52 years) ~ 17.3 cm/y

4 Land subsidence classification of Causes

5 Factors causing subsidence Distribution of soft soil (e.g. clay) and organic soil (e.g. peat). Excessive (unregulated, uncontrolled) groundwater abstraction for domestic & industrial demand + reduced recharge (hard surface) Drainage of soil oxidation of peat, soil compaction. Erosion by rainwater runoff (sinkholes) Construction of dams and changes of river channels reduced amount of sediment supply no natural compensation of subsidence: fact of life in city

6 Land subsidence effects on coastal areas Rising sea levels> 3mm/year High tide Sinking velocity > 5mm/year Relative sea level higher due to land subsidence Damage to flood protection structures Different flood inundation maps (land subsidence is a spatially distributed phenomena). More significant sea water intrusion. High tide Tall buildings Aquifer salinization Land subsidence Pipeline Piles

7 Land subsidence effects on coastal areas; diagnosing 1. Predict change in topography in the future: impact on hydraulic and hydrological models 2. Estimate effects of land subsidence of surface and deeper layers on flood protection structures: impact on design of structures and foundations 3. Possible damaging effects on sewerage/drainage systems and other infrastructure.

8 Symptoms: Land subsidence observed at groundwater pumping wells

9 Data acquisition methods of land subsidence 1. Geometric leveling network (optical leveling ~0.3mm); 2. Global Positioning System Surveying; 3. Extensometers, 4. Remote sensing: 1. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR); 2. Differential InSAR (C-Band). It is capable of mapping centimeters to meters of contiguous deformation across large areas, with centimeter accuracy. DifSAR is capable of capturing wide are surface deformation, but unlikely to be able to resolve any highly localized surface deformation features; and 3. Permanent Scatterer (PS) InSAR measurements (L-Band). It is used to map order of millimeters subsidence trends in urban and semi-urban environments. Extensometer; ~ 0.3cm Geodetic station used by GPS; ~ 2-3 cm

10 Contents - Definition, causes, symptoms, and Data acquisition. - Method of analysis and simulation - Case study of Jakarta - Land subsidence in the Nile Delta

11 Valida tion & Improvement Methodology: Integration of monitoring and modeling Risk analysis & Decision making Ground-motion monitoring data Comparison & inverse modelling Forecasted ground-motion Geomechanical modelling Geological model of the subsurface Specific requirements to satellite data STRATIGRAPHY HYDROGEOLOGY GEODESY GEOTECHNIQUE

12 Methodology to predict subsidence 1. Modeling of causes Groundwater flow model Calibration of ground water flow model with head observations Prediction of drawdown development according to different groundwater management scenarios. Determine process contributing to compaction (i.e., primary, secondary) Oxidation potential of organic layers Estimation of location and thickness of unsaturated layers 2. Modeling of effects Either coupled or decoupled groundwater flow and geo-mechanics modeling > Estimate compaction parameters > Calibrate parameters with land subsidence observations Add oxidation (and erosion).

13 Terzaghi's Principle Terzaghi's Principle states that when a rock is subjected to a stress, it is opposed by the fluid pressure of pores in the rock. Also known as Terzaghi's theory of one-dimensional consolidation; it states that all quantifiable changes in stress to a soil (compression, deformation, shear resistance) are a direct result of a change in effective stress. The effective stress σ' is related to total stress σ and the pore pressure u by the relationship; σ = σ' + u

14 Consolidation of multiple layers U t C v : d : t : exp 2 1 2i 1 ct 2 2 v 2 2 i 2 i 1 4d consolidation coefficient [L2/T]; drainage length [L]; and consolidation time [T]. n bj n j 1 b i Calculating equivalent consolidation c v c j 1 v, j coefficient

15 The NEN-Bjerrum method The NEN-Bjerrum model supports today s international defacto standards for settlement predictions, as contained for example in the Dutch standards. The model uses common linear strain soil parameters (C c,c r, C a ). It assumes that the creep rate will reduce with increasing over-consolidation and that over-consolidation can grow by unloading and by ageing. It decomposes total strain into two components; namely, a direct elastic contribution (ε d ) and a transient viscous contribution (ε vp ) where all inelastic compression is assumed to result from visco- plastic creep. The Over-consolidation Ratio (OCR) is defined as the ratio of pre-consolidation pressure and insitu.

16 Compressibility and specific storage; remarks Typically, skeletal compressibilities (and therefore storativities) of interbeds and confining units are several orders of magnitude larger than compressibilities of coarser-grained aquifers, which are typically much larger than water compressibility, therefore, virtually all of the water derived from interbed and confining-unit storage is due to the compressibility of the granular skeleton. Skeletal specific storage is inversely related to effective stress. For deep sediments, σ will be large, and reductions in u resulting from groundwater pumping are not likely to make large percentage changes in σ. On the other hand, for shallow sediments where σ is relatively small, changes in u could result in relatively large percentage changes in σ S g n sk w

17 Jakarta Case

18 Coastal flooding and land subsidence Coastal Flooding! Land subsidence and climate change Pluit Total Sea level rise 4-6 cm 4-6cm 8-12 cm Minimum Subsidence cm cm cm

19 Indications 41 cm ,5 cm 3 cm Extensometer at old Geology Office Jalan Tongkol

20 Data acquisition Leveling measurements in 1974, 1982, 1991, 1997 GPS Surveys 1997, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 Level on the tide gauge Extensometer, piezometric surface Remote sensing (InSAR, etc).

21 Data acquisition Subsidence revealed from Extensometer Rambu-1 Instrumen sipat datar Rambu-2 Rambu-1 Belakang Muka bb1 Belakang Muka bm1 bb2 bm2 Titik A H B H A = (bb1 bm1) + (bb2 bm2) Leveling survey Titik B GPS survey

22 Measured land subsidence maps; Subsidence map of Jakarta : Between , almost no land subsidence recorded around area of Jakarta. This is could be because of less urban development at that time, and minimum usage of groundwater.

23 Measured land subsidence maps; Subsidence map of Jakarta : Total subsidence -5 up to -90 cm ; rate -0.5 up to -9 cm/year Between , subsidence begin to be recorded around Jakarta; at the same time urban development has been growing up, where indeed much used of groundwater is observed.

24 Measured land subsidence maps; Subsidence map of Jakarta : Total subsidence -10 up to -150 cm ; rate -1 up to -16 cm/year Between , wider areas with land subsidence and larger land subsidence rates were observed. During this time, acceleration of urban development, and the tremendous used of groundwater were observed.

25 Measured land subsidence maps; Subsidence map of Jakarta : Total subsidence -10 up to -160 cm ; rate -1 up to -17 cm/year Between , generally constant rate of subsidence is recorded as compared to the period

26 Measured land subsidence maps; Subsidence map of Jakarta : Total subsidence -25 up to -400 cm ; rate -0.5 up to -17 cm/year -4,1 meter -2,1 meter -1,4 meter -0,7 meter meter

27 Land subsidence simulation in Jakarta

28 Research Questions What is the expected additional land subsidence in Northern Jakarta in case: The groundwater abstraction is continued as present and piezometric heads in the deeper aquifers will continue to lower in the coming 20 years. The groundwater abstraction is partially reduced and piezometric heads in the deeper aquifer will stabilize. The groundwater abstraction is reduced to 10% of present abstraction and piezometric heads will recover. The groundwater abstraction is reduced to 10% and clean water is infiltrated in the former pumping wells resulting in a rapid recovery of the piezometric heads. What is the estimated influence of large complexes of high rise buildings in Northern Jakarta on land subsidence.

29 Study area, and land subsidence and piezometric head data

30 <Not Registered> <Not Registered> Phone <Not Registered> <Not Registered> <Not Registered> Fax <Not Registered> date MSettle 7.3 : jwrmsfit2. Conceptual lithological sequence of aquifer/aquitard formations Input View <Not Registered> 17/03/ Level (m) Layers 8. Aquifer 1 7. Aquitard 1 6. Aquifer 2 5. Aquitard 2 4. Aquifer 3 3. Aquitard 3 2. Aquifer 4 1. Aquitard

31 Piezometric heads of the considered scenarios. Piezometric Head (m) Piezometric Head (m) "Aquifer 1" "Aquifer 2" -40 "Aquifer 3" "Aquifer 4" Year "Aquifer 1" "Aquifer 2" -40 "Aquifer 3" "Aquifer 4" Year Piezometric Head (m) 0 Case 1 Case "Aquifer 1" -60 "Aquifer 2" "Aquifer 3" "Aquifer 4" Year 0 Case 3 Case 4 Piezometric Head (m) "Aquifer 1" "Aquifer 2" -40 "Aquifer 3" "Aquifer 4" Year Average yearly drawdown in the area is about 1.2 m.

32 Land subsidence data at DNMG location. Year Time step Subsidene (m)

33 Geo-mechanical parameters for the Bejrrum method Soil Unit Weight Condolidation Coeff. Overconsolidation Reloading/Swelling Compression index Sec. compression kn/m 3 (Cv) m 2 /s ratio OCR (-) ratio RR (-) CR (-) coeff. Ca (-) Aquifer 1 26 N/A Aquifer 2 26 N/A Aquifer 3 26 N/A Aquifer 4 26 N/A Aquitard E Aquitard E Aquitard E Aquitard E Values in yellow cells are adopted as initial values Layer RR CR C a OCR C v [-] [-] [-] [-] m 2 /s Aquitard E-07 Aquitard E-09 Aquitard E-08 Aquitard E-09 Calibrated parameter values

34 Calculated versus measured subsidence and forecasted subsidence Simulated Measured Simulated Measured Case 1 Case 2 Simulated Measured Simulated Measured Case 3 Case 4 ID Case Description Case 1: Drawdown zero after 2010 Case 2: Drawdown increases 5m every 5 years from 2010 till 2030 Case 3: Piezometric heads are recovered to the values of 1995 by 2015 Case 4: Piezometric heads recovered to the maximum of all aquifers in 1995 by 2015 Year Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case

35 Compaction of aquitard layers (Case 1) Input View 1 Level (m) Layers 8. Aquifer 1 7. Aquitard 1 6. Aquifer 2 5. Aquitard 2 4. Aquifer 3 3. Aquitard 3 2. Aquifer 4 1. Aquitard Compaction (m) "Aquitard 1" "Aquitard 2" "Aquitard 3" "Aquitard 4" Year

36 Degree of Consolidation "Aquitard 1" "Aquitard 2" "Aquitard 3" "Aquitard 4" U (%) Year Delay effect due to slow dissipation in the most bottom aquitard could be significant. This is due the assumption that the lower boundary is undrained. The undrained lower boundary can be simply because the layer is overlaid on basement rock. Note that most aquitards have not reached full dissipation at end of simulation (2100). This means a continuous subsidence till the layers reach hydrostatic condition.

37 Subsidence for several drainage and creep conditions of "Case 1" CrNoDr (Case 1) CrDr NoCrNoDr NoCrDr Subsidence (m) Year

38 General conclusions (Jakarta Case) The NEN-Bjerrum method has been used to evaluate land subsidence in deltaic environment due to change in pore water pressures as a result of applying different groundwater management schemes. The method is combined with the Terzaghi s consolidation theory to account for consolidation of multiple homogeneous layers of soil between drained layers The method decomposes total strain into a direct elastic contribution ( d ) and a transient visco-plastic contribution ( vp ). The results showed significance of creep compaction on calculated land subsidence where for the case studied here with the calibrated parameters set, creep presented about 99% of total land subsidence for the year The results also showed that coupled processes of consolidation and creep produced a favorable situation where consolidation reduced total land subsidence by 66% as compared to the case of drained layers (and consequently 100% consolidation).

39 Land subsidence in the Nile Delta (proposal stage)

40 Research Objectives 1. Establishing a national monitoring network to provide continuous measurements of land subsidence in the Nile Delta 2. Identifying risk areas prone to land subsidence by: 1. Mapping the thickness of soft soils within the Nile Delta to help in identification of areas with high risks to land subsidence, 2. To characterize clay-cap in the Nile Delta in terms of geo-mechanical parameters, 3. Developing a preliminary coupled groundwater flow model and land subsidence of the Nile Delta; this will be used to investigate the relationship between groundwater abstraction and land subsidence. 4. Investigation processes (e.g. primary or secondary compaction) controlling potential risk area of land subsidence, 5. Initial evaluation of consequences of land subsidence on flood mapping in the coastal area of the Nile Delta; this includes how climate change and groundwater management could affect flooding risks of the delta. 6. Evaluating the change in freshwater-seawater interface due to land subsidence.

41 Research Approach and Methodology 1. Data inventory 2. Monitoring of land subsidence 1. Geodetic techniques 2. Remote sensing (Radar Interferometry Technique) 3. Tide gauges 3. Characterization of geo-mechanical properties of the clay layer, 4. Mapping risk areas of land subsidence. 5. Modeling land subsidence and consequences to flood inundation. 1. Theoretical development of a method to handle creep in clay 2. Hydrogeological conditions of the Nile Delta 3. Consequences of land subsidence and sea level rise on flood inundation in the Nile Delta

42 GPS stations by National Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NIAG)

43 Groundwater aquifers in the Nile Delta

44 Land Subsidence in the Nile Delta Land Subsidence in the Nile Delta: Inferences from Radar Interferometry, The Holocene v. 19(6), doi: / Average elevation of approximately 1 m above sea level within 30 km of the coast and A predicted rise in sea level of mm/yr Evaluate rates of subsidence of sections of the northeastern Nile Delta (a total length of 110 km, up to 50 km from the coastline) using Ps-InSAR techniques applied to 14 ERS-1 and ERS-2 scenes. B The highest subsidence rates (~8 mm/yr; twice average Holocene rates) do not correlate with the distribution of the thickest Holocene sediments, but rather with the distribution of the youngest depositional centers (major deposition occurred between ~3500 yr BP and present) at the terminus of the Damietta branch.

45 Expected Major Outputs 1. A national spatial geo-database system of land subsidence measurements and parameters (NGDLS) 2. Several risk maps of land subsidence as inferred from different data 3. A complete geo-mechanical characterization of the clay-cap in the delta (results are to be integrated into NGDLS), 4. Time series of land subsidence at different locations a long the coastline of the Nile Delta (results are to be integrated into NGDLS), 5. Several modeling/data integrated tools to forecast spatial variability of land subsidence in the Nile Delta, to forecast flood inundation due to sea level rise and land subsidence, and to forecast impacts of groundwater management on land subsidence and seawater intrusion.

46 Thank you for your attention

47 well scheme in homogeneous aquifer and pore pressure variation

48 Artesian well in confined aquifer and pore pressure variation

49 Consolidation ratio as function of depth and time factor uniform initial excess pore pressure

50 The Bjerrum method; explained Idealized primary and secondary settlement during time (drained conditions) Idealized primary settlement during loading (drained conditions)

51 Common parameter values (The Netherlands) RR CR e0 Cr Cc sigma Ske Skv Percentage Clay (Holocene) Peat (Holocene) Clay (Pleistocene) Peat (Pleistocene) S g n sk w

52 Data requirements; The NEN-Bjerrum method Three dimensional model of the subsurface (lithology), Groundwater flow and related variability of water table and piezometric heads, Soil properties: The well-established constitutive models are based on common soil parameters for virgin compression, unloading/reloading and secondary creep. For example, for the NEN-Bjerrum method: the following parameters are required: > RR: Reloading/swelling ratio > CR: Compression ration > Ca: Coefficient of secondary compression > POP: Pre-overburden pressure (defines the over-consolidation by the difference between the initial vertical pre-compression stress and the initial field stress) Consolidation is either modeled by means of a consolidation coefficient or by means of permeability per layer. Total stresses is calculated using soil unit weights. Water unit weight to calculate effective stresses. Land subsidence data to calibrate/ validate relevant model parameters.

53 The Jakarta Case; Conclusions Groundwater abstraction is the main reason for land subsidence in Jakarta. Groundwater flow and land subsidence are coupled phenomena since dynamics of groundwater flow systems lead to a time-variant geo-mechanical system where change in effective stresses in time, and consequently evolution of land subsidence in time, follows the change in water levels/piezometric heads in porous media. In deltaic environment with extensive appearance of soft soils, secondary (creep) and delayed primary settlement play significant roles in the estimation of land subsidence and relation to different groundwater management schemes. The forward geo-mechanical model using the Bjerrum method is developed based on conceptual information about the subsurface as well as piezometric head data at the DNMG area located north-west of Jakarta. A time series of land subsidence at the studied location is used to condition the parameters of the forward model.

54 The Jakarta Case; Conclusions (cont.) The calibrated model estimates the compression ratio as 0.33, the recompression ratio as 0.008, and the secondary compression ratio (creep) as The developed model simulates the behavior of the measured land subsidence time series accurately with simulated subsidence value of 1.6m at 2010 (corresponds to 1.64m measured value). The model estimates 2.6m and 3.88m of land subsidence at 2030 and 2100, respectively, considering no further groundwater drawdown after This reflects the delay effect due to slow dissipation in aquitard systems. A moderate drawdown of 1m/y every 5 years till 2030 would cause land subsidence of 3.25m and 5.7m at 2030 and 2100, respectively. Several groundwater scenarios of stopping abstraction and artificial recharge of aquifers are examined. For example, recovering piezometric heads to measured values in 1995 (this corresponds to 15 m recovery), will result land subsidence (still) of 2.4m and 3.1m at 2030 and 2100, respectively.

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