Understanding Climate Change

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1 Understanding Climate Change Emerging Regulatory Environment and ARC Research Activities David D Onofrio Principal Planner Atlanta Regional Commission ddonofrio@atlantaregional.com

2 Outline Emerging Federal Rulemaking and Potential Legislation Impacting MPOs State of Science Behind Climate Change Research Prior ARC Research on Climate Change Understanding CO 2 Emissions at the Neighborhood Level

3 Climate Change One of the Most Contentious Policy Debates of Our Generation

4 Policy Initiatives Federal Rules Impacting MPOs Are Emerging or Proposed MAP 21 Metropolitan Planning Rules (proposed) Climate Change Scenario Testing Options States can include mitigation of CO 2 as part of their environmental reviews GROW AMERICA ACT (proposed reauthorized bill) Assess vulnerabilities and risks to infrastructure Evaluate potential strategies for adaptation of critical assets Clean Power Plan (proposed) President s Climate Action Plan action plan

Climate Change Is an Emerging Priority for Several Communities Sustainable Atlanta Decatur Sustainability Assessment Decatur Greenhouse Gas Inventory Partnership for a Better Bartow DeKalb Green

5 Climate Change Is an Emerging Priority for Several Communities Sustainable Atlanta Decatur Sustainability Assessment Decatur Greenhouse Gas Inventory Partnership for a Better Bartow DeKalb Green Focus US Conference of Mayors Climate Protection Agreement Alpharetta, Atlanta, Decatur, East Point, Roswell Energy Star Challenge 122 organizations in Georgia 12 local governments State of Georgia

6 Understanding the Background of Climate Change / Global Warming.

7 What is Climate Change? Weather Daily change in conditions you experience Climate Long term trend in those conditions

8 Earth s Long-Term Climate is Affected by the Greenhouse Effect

9 The Earth s Systems aren t as Big as We Think Earth s Water Earth s Air

10 CO2 (ppmv) , , , , , , , ,000 0 Age (years BP) Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

11 CO2 (ppmv) , , , , , , , ,000 0 Age (years BP) Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

12 CO2 Concentration: CO2 (ppmv) , , , , , , , ,000 0 Age (years BP) Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

13 CO2 Concentration: 400 After 40 more years at the current rate of increase CO2 (ppmv) , , , , , , , ,000 0 Age (years BP) Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA

Knutti, 2012:Anthropogenic and natural warming inferred from

14 Global Temperature Change Source: National Climate Assessment, 2014 adapted from Huber, M., and R. Knutti, 2012:Anthropogenic and natural warming inferred from changes in Earth's energy balance. Nature Geoscience, 5, 31-36, doi: /ngeo1327. URL

Global Ocean Heat Content 1955 2010 Heat Content (10 22 Joules) 5 year average, 0-2000 m depth 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: NOAA/NESDIS/NODC Ocean Climate Laboratory, updated from Levitus, S.

15 Global Ocean Heat Content Heat Content (10 22 Joules) 5 year average, m depth Source: NOAA/NESDIS/NODC Ocean Climate Laboratory, updated from Levitus, S., et al., World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0-2000), , Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, doi: /2012gl051106, American Geophysical Union. Reproduced/modified by permission of American Geophysical Union.

16 Arctic Sea Ice Extent 1984 September 2012 Sea Ice Concentration Source: NASA Earth Observatory 0% 100%

While Contentious Debate Exists in the Political Arena

Change is Happening and Humans are the Cause Source:

Quantifying the Consensus on Anthropogenic Global

17 While Contentious Debate Exists in the Political Arena 97% of Published Climate Papers State that the Climate Change is Happening and Humans are the Cause Source: Cook, J., Nuccitelli, D. et al. (2013). Quantifying the Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming in the Scientific Literature. Environmental Research Letters, 8(2), 1 7.

19 Prior Climate Change Research at ARC Scenario Testing Source: ARC s Taking the Temperature Report, 2011 Available at

Forecast Per Capita Regional CO 2 Emissions Expected to Decline Through 2030 Total Transportation Network CO 2 Emissions (million tons/year) 60 50 40 30 20 10 6.9 39 39 6.

20 Forecast Per Capita Regional CO 2 Emissions Expected to Decline Through 2030 Total Transportation Network CO 2 Emissions (million tons/year) CO 2 Emissions (tons/person/year) Year Total Network CO2e Emissions Per Capita CO2e Emissions

21 Past Evaluation and Consideration of CO 2 Emissions in Planning Processes Incorporated CO 2 emissions into the Benefit Cost analysis Calculated CO 2 emissions as part of the CMAQ project call Pursued programs/policies to reduce vehicle trips Livable Centers Initiative Transportation Demand Management Congestion bottleneck relief projects to reduce idling

modeling to establish a neighborhood level inventory of CO 2

22 Current Research Understanding Neighborhood Level Emissions Goals: Continue previous ARC work in transportation and emissions modeling to establish a neighborhood level inventory of CO 2 emissions Understand potential policies and programs that impact CO 2 emissions

23 Transportation & Household Electricity Account for 61% of US GHG Emissions Agriculture 8% Other 11% Electricity 33% Transportation 28% Industry 20% Source: US EPA

24 Understanding Neighborhood Level Emissions (Work Underway) Activity Based Transportation Model Transportation Emissions TAZ Level Travel Data SQL / GIS Zip Code Level Household Electricity Data SQL / GIS Census Data Residential Emissions CO 2 Emissions CO 2 Emissions Model/Tool Input Output Total per person/ per household CO 2 emissions

25 Neighborhood Level Emissions Research Still finalizing the data and information Will bring more info to TCC in the future

26 Contact Information David D Onofrio ddonofrio@atlantaregional.com (404)

27 Reference Slides

28 Key Issues for the Southeast Increasing temperatures and the associated increase in frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat events will affect public health, natural and built environments, energy, agriculture, and forestry. Decreased water availability, exacerbated by population growth and land use change, will continue to increase competition for water and affect the region s economy and unique ecosystems. Source: Southeast Chapter of the 2014 National Climate Assessment

29 Climate Change Indicators Based on records dating back to 1901, seven of the top 10 warmest years on record in the United States have occurred since The top 10 warmest years worldwide have all occurred since Total annual precipitation has increased over land areas in the United States. Although, shifting weather patterns have left some areas of the United States with less precipitation. From records dating between 1910 and 2013, nine of the top 10 years for extreme one day precipitation events have occurred since The decade from saw twice as many record high temperatures as record lows. Ocean surface temperatures have increased globally over the 20 th century. The average length of the growing season has increased by nearly two weeks across the lower 48 states since the year Spring is coming earlier and the autumn s first frost is coming later. Source: US EPA. Climate Change Indicators in the US, 2014

30 Climate Change Indicators Three excellent sources for information on how we know the climate is changing and the outcomes we expect in the future

Under the Weather? The Health Consequences of a Changing Climate

Under the Weather? The Health Consequences of a Changing Climate George Luber, PhD Chief, Climate and Health Program National Center for Environmental Health Centers for Disease Control and Prevention