Chapter 6: Adapting to a Changing Climate

Transcription

1 Chapter 6: Adapting to a Changing Climate Coastline in East Nusa Tenggara Photo: Endro Adinugroho

2 MAIN MESSAGES Investing In a More Sustainable Indonesia Specific areas of Indonesia are highly vulnerable to multiple climate change hazards (drought, floods, landslides, sea-level rise) While temperature may only increase modestly, more intense rainfall and sea-level rise will negatively affect food security, water resources, coastal areas, farming and coastal livelihoods, forests, marine biodiversity, and health People and ecosystems are especially vulnerable to climate risks on Java, Bali, parts of Sumatra, and a large area of Papua Climate change will have the most impact on the poorest Indonesians who are more likely to be: living in marginal areas that are susceptible to drought, flooding and/or landslides; dependent on climate-sensitive agriculture or fisheries for their livelihoods; and have fewer assets to cope with the impacts of a changing climate The annual benefit of avoided damage from climate change is likely to exceed the annual cost by 2050 and, by 2100, the benefit could reach 1.6 percent of GDP, compared to the cost at 0.12 percent of GDP Many adaptation options exist to help reduce Indonesia s vulnerability to climate change which will need to be phased and prioritized according to the magnitude of costs, benefits and risks 6.1 Impacts of Climate Change in Indonesia Recent analysis for the Southeast Asia region (Yusuf and Francisco, 2009) suggests that Indonesia is highly vulnerable within the region to various aspects of a warming climate. The eastern and western portions of densely-populated Java, the coastal regions of much of Sumatra, parts of western and northern Sulawesi, and southeastern Papua islands all rank highly on the multiple climate hazard map (see Figure 6.1). Figure 6.1: Multiple climate hazard map of Southeast Asia Indonesia is susceptible to all major climate change risks (drought, floods, landslides, sea-level rise) except cyclones. Indonesia will experience modest temperature increase. Annual mean temperature in Indonesia has been observed as increasing by around Celsius ( o C) since 1990 and has occurred in all seasons of the year, relatively consistent if not slightly lower than the expectation of the warming trend due to climate change. The 1990s was the warmest decade and a 48 Legend Multiple Climate Hazard Index Country Boundary Source: Yusuf and Francisco, 2009

3 Figure 6.2. The Average Change of Precipitation Pattern September-November (in mm/100 years) < > 100 SOURCE: Ratag, increase of almost 1 o C (above the average) made it the country s warmest year in the century (Hulme, et al., 1999). Indonesia will experience more intense rainfall. Climate change is predicted to result in 2 percent to 3 percent more rainfall per year in Indonesia (Ratag 2001 in Susandi 2007). As Figure 6.2 shows, the entire country will experience more rainfall, with the largest change being in the Moluccas. The increased rainfall is expected to continue and, due to climate change, result in a shorter rainy season (fewer number of rainy days in a year), with significant increase in the risk of flooding. Food security in Indonesia will be threatened by climate change. Perhaps the largest concern for Indonesia with regards to the impacts of climate change is the risk of decreased food security. Climate change will alter precipitation, evaporation, run-off water and soil moisture; hence will have effects on agriculture and thus food security. The droughts caused by the 1997 El Nino event affected 426,000 hectares of rice. The loss of production (measured as the percentage deviation from a fiveyear moving average) in eight El Nino years between 1965 and 1997 averaged 4 percent. Production variability during was greatest for maize (13.5percent due mainly to chages in area harvested (World Bank, 2008). For particular regions, the losses may be higher: East Java/Bali, an area with a very short monsoon, is predicted to be 18 percent for the January- April harvest (Naylor et al., 2007). Important income-generating non-food crops such as coffee, cocoa and rubber were also affected (FAO, 1996). Projected changes in crop yields in Asia could vary between -22 percent to +28 percent by the end of the century in the event of a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (Reilly, 1996). A model simulating the impacts of climate change on crops (Goddard Institute of Space Studies, UK Meteorological Country Environmental Analysis 49 Figure 6.3. Impact of Sea Level Rise Caused by Global Warming: Jakarta in 2050 Blue = inundation due to sea level rise at 1 cm/yr (ITB 2007)

4 Figure 6.4 Population Density Within and Outside of a 10 m Low Elevation Coastal Zone (CIESIN, 2007) JAKARTA 50 Investing In a More Sustainable Indonesia Office) shows a decrease of crop harvest in West and East Java. Climate change will likely reduce long-term soil fertility by 2 percent to 8 percent, resulting in projected decreases of rice yield by 4 percent per year, soybean by 10 percent, and maize by 50 percent (Amin, 2004 and Parry and Nih, 1992) Land and forest fires in Indonesia are closely related to a changing climate. In El Nino years, the total area of land and forest affected by fire increased significantly, as did carbon emissions (GoI, 2007). These fires disrupt destroy habitats, pollute watersheds, reduce biological diversity, and increase air pollution, with consequent health effects. The 1997/98 El Ninorelated peat fires in Indonesia have been classified as one of the top ten natural hazards in the world between 1907 and 2007, with the direct and indirect value of damages and economic losses potentially totaling $17 billion (OFDA/CRED, 2007). Rainfall variability will negatively affect water resources. Decreases and increases in rainfall will adversely affect hydroelectricity generation and drinking water supply, both of which depend on steady supply from water reservoirs. Data from eight dams during six El Nino years indicate that hydropower plant output was below normal. Shortage of water in reservoirs also affects the availability of drinking water, especially for cities. On the other hand, heavy rainfall with associated turbidity will damage water processing facilities, contaminate the water supply and increase the costs of water treatment (GoI, 2007). Sea level rise will inundate productive coastal zones. Climate change will also increase the average sea level due to increased volume of the sea water and the melting of polar ice caps. The mean sea level in the Jakarta Bay will increase as high as 0.57 Population Density within and outside of a 10 meter low elevation coastel zone (LECZ), 2000 Persons per sq km < ,000 >1,000 within LECZ outside LECZ centimeters (cm) per year. The average depth of inundated area varies between 0.28 and 4.17 in 2050 (Meliana 2005 in Susandi 2007). This coupled with the land surface decline as high as 0.8 cm per year, as observed in the Jakarta Bay, can have a tremendous impact on urban productivity and infrastructure, as visualized in Figure 6.3 (Priambodo 2005). Also, in rural districts such as Krawang and Subang, a 95 percent reduction in local rice supply (down 300,000 tons) is estimated as a result of inundation of the coastal zone. In the same districts, maize output would be reduced by 10,000 tons, about half of this due to inundation. At the national scale, recent analysis by Columbia University has indicated the extensive risk of sea level rise to Indonesia (see Figure 6.3). Areas with a density of more than 1,000 people per square kilometres such as Jakarta, Yogyakarta, Semarang, Surabaya, are areas which will get hit the most by sea level rise (CIESIN, 2007). In total 41,610,000 Indonesians live within ten meters of the average sea level. They are the most vulnerable to sea level changes (IIED, 2007). Sea level rise will reduce farming and coastal livelihoods. Sealevel rise would also be likely to affect fish and prawn production. In the Krawang and Subang districts, the loss is estimated at over 7,000 tons and 4,000 tons, respectively (valued at over US$ 0.5 million). In the lower Citarum Basin, sea-level rise could result in the inundation of about 26,000 ha of ponds and 10,000 ha of crop land. This could result in the loss of 15,000 tons of fish, shrimp and prawns output, and about 940,000 tons of rice production. The overall effect would be to reduce potential average income. The estimated reduction of yield would cost the rice farmer

5 Figure 6.5: Vulnerability Map of Southeast Asia SECTION 3: Sectoral Challenges in a Changing Climate Laos Vietnam Thailand Philippines Cambodia Legend Vulnerable regions (Country std) mildly vulnerable ( ) moderately vulnerable ( ) highly vulnerable ( ) Malaysia Source: Yusuf and Francisco, 20 Indonesia US$ 10 to US$ 17 annually, the soybean farmer US$ 22 to US $72 and the maize (corn) farmer US$ 25 to US $130 annually. It is estimated that the decrease in yield would cause, in the Subang District alone, about 43,000 farm laborers to lose their jobs. In addition, more than 81,000 farmers would have to look for other sources of income due to the inundation of their rice fields or prawn and fish farms due to sea-level rise (Parry & Nih, 1992). The warming of ocean water will affect marine biodiversity. Climate change will subject Indonesia s ocean water to an increase in temperature of 0.2 to 2.5 o C. The 50,000 km 2 of coral reefs in Indonesia, about 18 percent of the world s total, are already in dire straits. The El Nino event in alone was estimated to have caused coral bleaching to 16 percent of the world s coral reef. In a 2000 survey, only 6 percent of Indonesia s coral reefs are in excellent condition, 24 percent in good condition, and the remaining 70 percent are in fair to poor condition (John Hopkins University and Terangi, 2003). A survey in the Bali Barat National Park found that a majority of coral reefs were in poor condition. More than half of the degradation was due to coral bleaching. This puts the Bali Barat National Park as a catastrophically-affected site (Wilkinson, 2000 in Setiasih, 2006). In Pari island, in the Thousand Islands National Park, percent of the coral reefs were found bleached in 1997 (Irdez 1998 in Setiasih, 2006); ten years later, this had increased to percent (GoI, 2007b). Climate change will intensify water- and vector- borne diseases. In the late 1990s, El Nino and La Nina were associated with outbreaks of malaria, dengue and plague. Malaria has spread to high elevations where it was detected for the first time as high as 2103 m in the highlands of Irian Jaya in 1997 (Epstein, et al., 1998). In 2004, it appeared that a more virulent strain of the potentially deadly dengue fever virus may have emerged. Dengue fever has been spreading faster and killing more victims than in past years, especially during La Nina years (GoI, 2007). The links between climate change and these diseases and health problems is poorly researched. The IPCC s Fourth Assessment Report (2007) stated that there is too little data to reliably confirm perceptions of an increase in extreme weather events, which may be due to increased reporting. However, perhaps as a forewarning of what is to come, the rise in the number of dengue fever cases during the rainy seasons in Indonesia, particularly in Java, could have been partially caused by warmer climates. Research has confirmed that warmer temperature has led to mutation of the dengue virus, making cases more difficult to handle, thus leading to an increase in fatalities. Impacts will be uneven across the country, but result in significant economic damage and loss of livelihoods. For example, the economic impacts of forest fires are estimated to cost an annual US$ 9 billion from droughts and fires (Applegate, May 2006) and US$ 4 billion from haze related costs (International Development Research Center, 2003). Country Environmental Analysis 51

6 Investing In a More Sustainable Indonesia There is no proven evidence yet that intense and more frequent El Nino and La Nina events are caused by or are causing climate change. But these events can be a good proxy for looking at the damage that could occur due to climate change. The rare events could become the norm as the world will get permanently warmer. 6.2 The Socio-economic Costs and Benefits of Adaptation Vulnerability With 65 percent of its population living in coastal areas, Indonesia is vulnerable to sea-level rise and other hydrometeorological events. This exposure is even greater when one considers that nearly half the population depends on agricultural as well as forest-based livelihoods (GoI, 2007b). Recent analysis (Yusuf and Francisco, 2009) has evaluated the exposure of people to climate change in Southeast Asia as well as climate threats to protected areas. When human and ecological vulnerability are considered, important population centers in Indonesia will be at risk, especially on Java, Bali, parts of Sumatra, and a large area of Papua (see Figure 6.5) Economic Costs and Benefits Economic impacts of climate change will be high in Indonesia. Without considering non-market impact and catastrophic risks, mean GDP loss is projected to reach 2.5 percent by This is over four times the global mean GDP loss of 0.6 percent because Indonesia has a long coastline, high population density in coastal areas, high dependence on agriculture and natural resources, relatively low adaptive capacity, and a tropical climate (ADB, 2009). With no further mitigation or adaptation measures, mean GDP losses from market and nonmarket impacts could reach 6.0 percent by If the chance of catastrophic events is also considered, they could go as high as 7.0 percent of GDP. Benefits of adaptation far outweigh the costs. For Indonesia and three other countries in Southeast Asia, the cost of adaptation for agriculture and coastal zones (mainly the construction of seawalls and the development of drought- and heat-resistant crops) would be about $5 billion per year by 2020 on average. The annual benefit of avoided damage from climate change for Indonesia is likely to exceed the annual cost by By 2100, the benefit could reach 1.6 percent of GDP, compared to the cost at 0.12 percent of GDP (ADB, 2009). It should be stressed that further adaptation cannot entirely mitigate the projected damage from climate change and must be complemented by global mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the greater impact of future climate change. 52