THE FUTURE OF COAL. Bruce Watzman Senior Vice President National Mining Association. April 23, 2013

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1 THE FUTURE OF COAL Bruce Watzman Senior Vice President National Mining Association April 23,

2 Coal Becomes World s Primary Energy Source 6 Billion TOE Coal Oil Natural Gas Sources: Wood Mackenzie, IEA 2

3 BTU-Hungry World 2013 World of Coal Ash Conference in Lexington, Kentucky - April 23, 2013 Plenary Session ( Developing Economies Will account for 80% Global GDP by 2050 Energy Intensities Remain just a fraction of developed economies China Only part of the story unfolding 3

4 Scale and Pace of Developing World Urbanization Total Urban Population in China, India and Africa (million) ,350 Total Population in Developed Countries (million) By 2020, developing countries will account for almost 80% of the world s total urban population ,400 ~500 ~370 The global growth is equal to adding the population of Mumbai every second month or Shanghai every third Source: McKinsey & Company EU 2030 US 4

5 Large Upside to Steel Intensity Potential Drives Met Coal Emerging countries driving met coal demand through greater urbanization and higher steel consumption Significant steel increases required to reach levels of developed Asia economies Stable stage intensity may take years to reach 2013 World of Coal Ash Conference in Lexington, Kentucky - April 23, 2013 Plenary Session ( Countries will rely on imports for met coal needs Kg/Capita 2011 Steel Consumption Per Capita 1,400 1,200 1, ~1.2 billion tons of met coal required to reach stable stage steel intensity of 900 kg/capita ,402 India Brazil China Japan Taiwan Korea Source: Peabody Global Energy Analytics 5

6 Build Out of Coal Generation Drives Growth in Thermal Coal Gigawatts New Coal-Based Generating Capacity, World of Coal Ash Conference in Lexington, Kentucky - April 23, 2013 Plenary Session ( Rest of World India China New coal-based generation expected to grow 395 GW by 2016 ~ 1 billion tons of additional coal demand Vast majority of growth in China and India, driving higher seaborne demand 73 GW of new coal generation in rest of world Source: Platts Worldwide Power Plant Database and Peabody Energy analysis 6

7 Planned Export Capacity Location Current Planned West Coast 6 50 Southwest 5 15 Gulf Coast East Coast Midwest Southeast TOTAL Source: UBS, NMA, ACI 7

8 Projected Plant Retirements as a Percentage of Total Capacity by Region % 7.4% 21% 30.3% 36.8% Nationwide Retirements: 68 GW = 20% of capacity

9 Coal Fleet Size Smaller units (<300MW) comprise 75% of the retirements Capacity (GW) <200 Almost 75% of the coal fleet will be larger than 500 MW

10 Coal Fleet Age By 2020 Capacity (GW) < % of the existing coal fleet is >40 years old Youngest segment-<30 years drops by half to 13% of entire fleet

11 Coal Fleet Heat Rate (MMBtu/MWh) Emission Profile (#/MWh) 250 SO2: - 25 % Capacity (GW) <10,000 10,000-11,000 11,000-13,000 13,000+ NOx: -11 % CO2: 0 %

12 Higher Capacity Factors for Remaining Plants Offset Retirements U.S. Coal Fleet (In gigawatts of capacity) U.S. Coal Plant Utilization (Remaining 277 gigawatts) 68 GW 76% 66% 57% Source: EVA, NMA 277 GW Capacity at risk of retiring by 2020 Expected capacity to remain online Includes 7 GW New Capacity : ~100 MST recovery from 2012 levels 12

13 EPA GHG NSPS for Power Plants New Units EPA proposed NSPS for new units April, 2012 Final rule April-June 2013 Creates a new single-source category for fossil fuel-fired power plants Proposed standard at 1,000 lb/ CO 2 per MWh Can only be met by NGCC plants Includes unworkable CCS rolling average option for coal plants Uncertainty about potential exposure for existing plants that modify/reconstruct to comply with MATS or other regulations Existing Units Required after a final new unit rule EPA does not establish direct regulations EPA calls for State plans and issues emissions guidelines, not standards Must include costs, technological feasibility. Rarely used provision Extent of State discretion in submitting plans is uncertain EPA publishes final guidance; states submit enforceable plans within nine months 13

14 Our Future The Facts 14

15 310 Coal Generation 2013 World of Coal Capacity Ash Conference in Lexington, and % Kentucky Change - April 23, 2013 in Plenary Generation Session ( from % % 20.0% Capacity (GW) % 9.4% 13.1% 2.1% 7.7% 9.3% 11.0% 12.5% 15.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% % change in generation from 2012 (GWh) -5.0% % % Source: EVA GW GWh

16 The World Needs Coal Share of people without electricity access for developing countries Source: WHO 16

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