Implications of Abundant Natural Gas
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1 Implications of Abundant Natural Gas JAE EDMONDS AND HAEWON MCJEON APRIL 213 April 29, 213 1
2 Gas and the Global Energy System Gas is has been a growing component of the global energy system for some time. April 29, 213 Grubler et al., 212: Chapter 1 - Energy Primer. In Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future. 2
3 A brief history of thinking about Natural Gas Resources In the 199s total gas reserves were thought to be more abundant than oil, but gas production was expected to peak and decline before mid-21 st century, because gas exploitable resources were economically limited to conventional resources. Unconventional resources were thought to be too expensive ever to be relevant. In 1997, Rogner s work on natural resources indicated that unconventional gas was abundant. But, modelers either were slow to incorporate unconventional gas (and oil) into their thinking or priced them as more expensive than conventional resources. And then a technological revolution happened. April 29, 213 3
4 The natural gas revolution The application of technologies for accessing unconventional gas shales in the United States has dramatically increased gas production, and estimates of recoverable resources even more. And, dramatically reduced natural gas prices. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 212 4
5 Key Questions As application of new production technology spreads beyond the United States: How will this change our understanding of the scale and composition of the evolving global energy system? How will this affect energy security and international trade? How will this affect local and regional air quality? What effect will this have on CO 2 and other GHG emissions and the technologies for their use in the near term and long term? Globally and regionally With and without emissions mitigation policies Implications for regional air pollution April 29, 213 5
6 How Much Gas Is Out There? April 29, 213 6
7 EJ EJ Fossil Fuel Resources How much natural gas is there and how much does it cost? How much in the larger sense means resource availability Oil, Gas and Coal Conventional and unconventional for oil and gas Coal is just too abundant to divide up that way. 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, - oil gas coal 1, 9, unconventional 8, resource 7, unconventional 6, reserve 5, conventional 4, resource 3, conventional 2, reserve 1, - oil gas coal unconventional resource unconventional reserve conventional resource conventional reserve 7
8 How much does it cost? To help us understand the implications of abundant and inexpensive natural gas availability for the global energy system, we have developed three alternative global and regional resource supply schedules. Gas Technology Circa 199 (Gas Tech 199 or GT199) this supply schedule reflects an understanding of gas resource availability circa 199s. Gas Technology Circa 2 (Gas Tech 2 or GT2) this supply schedule reflects an understanding of gas resource availability in the early 2s. Gas Technology Circa 2 (Gas Tech 21 or GT21) this supply schedule assumes that advanced technologies can be successfully deployed globally. April 29, 213 8
9 25 Extraction Cost (25$/GJ) The three gas supply schedules (global) GT199 - Conventional Gas Resources Only, ca 199s GT2 - Expensive Unconventional Gas, ca 2s GT21 - Abundant and Inexpensive Gas Resources, 21 and beyond 2 GT199 GT2 GT Cumulative Resource (EJ) April 29, 213 9
10 The Global Change Assessment Model 14 Region Energy/Economy Model 151 Agriculture and Land Use Model GCAM is a global integrated assessment model GCAM links Economic, Energy, Landuse, and Climate systems Technology-rich model Emissions of 16 greenhouse gases and short-lived species: CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, halocarbons, carbonaceous aerosols, reactive gases, sulfur dioxide. Runs through 295 in 5-year timesteps. Dynamic Recursive Open Source/Model and Documentation available at: models/gcam/ April 29, 213 1
11 Gas and the Global Energy System April 29,
12 Global Natural Gas Production (EJ) Adding Abundant but EXPENSIVE unconventional gas to Conventional gas Increased late 21 st century production When gas prices were driven up past present prices Near-term gas production and use were similar in GT199 and GT GT2 GT199 April 29,
13 Global Natural Gas Production (EJ) 25$/GJ Abundant AND Inexpensive gas changes our understanding of the near term And lowers the price of natural gas around the world. 35 N. Gas Production 9 GT GT Abundant and inexpensive gas is introduced in North America in 215 and globally in The increase in natural gas production accelerates N. Gas Price domestic natural gas GT2 domestic natural gas GT21 LNG imports GT2 LNG imports GT21 13
14 EJ/yr 25 Global Primary Energy Consumption GT2 1,5 1,7 25 GT21 trad biomass geothermal solar wind hydro nuclear biomass coal natural gas April 29,
15 EJ/yr Abundant and Inexpensive Gas Penetrates Power Production Abundant and inexpensive natural gas displaces other energy carriers in power generation Where it helps lower generation costs Change in Fuel Mix for Power Generation resulting with Abundant and inexpensive natural gas rather than expensive unconventional gas Global power sector consumption in 25 = 185 EJ/yr net change battery CHP solar wind hydro geothermal nuclear biomass liquid fuel gas coal 15
16 EJ/yr 25 Global Final Energy Consumption Change Global consumption in 25 (EJ) building industry transport electricity others renewables nuclear district heat trad biomass hydrogen electricity biomass coal gas liquid fuel April 29,
17 Primary Energy Consumption (EJ/yr) But, a 2% increase in gas use is a much smaller change in global energy use. This effect is more pronounced in some regions with existing infrastructure for natural gas based economy (e.g. FSU). Global Former Soviet Union GT2 GT
18 Gas Trade April 29,
19 Cumulative Natural Gas Net Export Gas Tech ca. 2 Gas Tech ca. 21 Former Soviet Union Canada Middle East Africa Australia_NZ Southeast Asia Latin America China Eastern Europe Korea India Japan USA Western Europe Former Soviet Union Canada Middle East Africa Australia_NZ Southeast Asia Latin America China Eastern Europe Korea India Japan USA Western Europe Cumulative Natural Gas Net Export (EJ) Global natural gas consumption in 25 = 99 EJ/yr Cumulative Natural Gas Net Export (EJ) Cumulative USA natural gas consumption in = 12 EJ ~ 16 EJ April 29,
20 Gas and Greenhouse Emissions Without Climate Policy April 29, 213 2
21 Carbon and Energy How does abundant gas affect expected greenhouse gas emissions? CO 2, and total climate forcing. Carbon and energy Petroleum = ~2 PgC/EJ Coal = ~27 PgC/EJ Natural gas = ~14 PgC/EJ Nuclear, Solar, wind, geothermal, and other renewable energy forms = ~ PgC/EJ Bioenergy is net emissions for the energy sector, but indirect land use change emissions are accounted. Methane emissions have a (1 year) Global Warming Potential of ~25 gco 2 /gch 4 12% of methane emissions was from natural gas in 25. Sources include: emissions from FF, e.g. coal mining, gas transmissions & distribution, gas venting, etc., (also land use, agriculture, animal husbandry, waste ) April 29,
22 Carbon-energy ratios in the larger economy XGAS: Expensive unconventional gas scenario Average carbon intensities (kgc/gj): Natural gas ~14 Petroleum ~2 Coal ~27 Average global 23 ~17 Regional average carbon-energy ratios in 21 (kgc/gj): Average US ~16 Average China ~22 (modern ~24) Average India ~16 (modern ~2) Average W. Europe ~15 Average Africa ~11 (modern ~15) April 29,
23 GtC CO 2 Emissions: Abundant and Inexpensive versus Expensive Unconventional Gas GT21 April 29,
24 GtC CO 2 Emissions: Abundant and Inexpensive versus Expensive Unconventional Gas GT2 GT21 Virtually no change in Fossil Fuel CO 2 emissions. Slightly higher in the early years due to increased energy consumption. Slightly lower in the later years due to crowding out coal. April 29,
25 Radiative Forcing (Wm -2 ) Concentration (ppmv CO2-eq) Radiative Forcing Difference Climate Forcing: Abundant and Inexpensive versus Expensive Unconventional Gas Radiative forcing increases slightly. Reduced SO 2 from coal burning reduce cooling effect. Increased fugitive methane emissions from natural gas extraction. Smaller countervailing effect of reduced fugitive methane emissions from coal mining. Reduced Black Carbon emissions from coal burning. Slightly reduced CO 2 emissions from reduced biomass land use change emissions Radiative Forcing GT2 25 GT Radiative Forcing Difference 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% -.5% CO2 CH4 N2O Other Kyoto Gases SO2 All Other Gases Net Total April 29,
26 Why did CO 2 emissions not decline? Two effects of abundant and inexpensive unconventional gas 1. Carbon-intensity reduction effect on average more gas means a lower carbon-energy ratio 2. Demand expansion effect on average energy is less expensive, so people use more. These two effects roughly cancel at a global scale. April 29,
27 ΔMtC Africa Australia_NZ Canada China Eastern Europe Former Soviet Union India Japan Korea Latin America Middle East Southeast Asia USA Western Europe Regional changes in carbon emissions April 29,
28 EJ/yr Global Primary Energy Consumption Change Global Total 493 EJ/yr in 25 In general changes are modest trad biomass geothermal solar wind hydro nuclear biomass coal natural gas oil net change April 29,
29 EJ/yr EJ/yr EJ/yr EJ/yr Global trad biomass 2 geothermal solar 1 wind hydro nuclear biomass coal -1 natural gas oil net change -2 China trad biom geotherm solar wind hydro nuclear biomass coal natural g oil net chan USA trad biomass 8 geothermal solar 4 wind hydro nuclear biomass coal -4 natural gas oil net change -8 Africa trad biom geotherm solar wind hydro nuclear biomass coal natural g oil net chan 29
30 Gas and Emissions Mitigation April 29, 213 3
31 Abundant natural gas and greenhouse gas emissions mitigation How is that understanding different compared with our earlier understanding? Which policy? Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations (the goal of the Framework Convention on Climate Change) Analysis assumptions: Ambitious policy goal: 45 ppm CO 2 -e (2.6 Wm -2 ) in 21 Idealized policy All regions face a common carbon tax All sectors face a common carbon tax The carbon tax rises over time at the idealized Hotelling rate. Full suite of technologies available Nuclear, CO 2 capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy, forest sequestration, renewable energy, energy efficiency April 29,
32 Primary Energy Consumption (EJ/yr) Primary Energy Consumption (EJ/yr) Primary Energy Consumption (EJ/yr) Fossil Fuel Consumption GT2 GT2 45 CO2e GT21 GT21 45 CO2e GAS Abundant and inexpensive gas increases gas usage in climate mitigation scenarios. 1 5 Larger than in the expensive gas reference scenario. But, not as large as in the Abundant and inexpensive gas reference scenario i.e. climate mitigation does not enhance gas usage. OIL Abundant and inexpensive gas reduces oil demands, but not much. 5 Climate policy reduces the demand for oil, but also, not much. COAL Abundant and inexpensive gas reduces coal demands, but not much. Climate policy reduces the demand for coal use, a lot.
33 Primary Energy Consumption (EJ/yr) Primary Energy Consumption (EJ/yr) Primary Energy Consumption (EJ/yr) Fossil Fuel Consumption GT2 GT2 45 CO2e GT21 GT21 45 CO2e GAS Abundant and inexpensive gas increases gas usage in climate mitigation scenarios. 1 5 Larger than in the expensive gas reference scenario. But, not as large as in the Abundant and inexpensive gas reference scenario i.e. climate mitigation does not enhance gas usage. OIL Abundant and inexpensive gas reduces oil demands, but not much. 5 Climate policy reduces the demand for oil, but also, not much. COAL Abundant and inexpensive gas reduces coal demands, but not much. Climate policy reduces the demand for coal use, a lot.
34 Primary Energy Consumption (EJ/yr) Primary Energy Consumption (EJ/yr) Primary Energy Consumption (EJ/yr) Fossil Fuel Consumption GT2 GT2 45 CO2e GT21 GT21 45 CO2e GAS Abundant and inexpensive gas increases gas usage in climate mitigation scenarios. 1 5 Larger than in the expensive gas reference scenario. But, not as large as in the Abundant and inexpensive gas reference scenario i.e. climate mitigation does not enhance gas usage. OIL Abundant and inexpensive gas reduces oil demands, but not much. 5 Climate policy reduces the demand for oil, but also, not much. COAL Abundant and inexpensive gas reduces coal demands, but not much. Climate policy reduces the demand for coal use, a lot.
35 Carbon Price 25$/tCO GT2 45 CO2e GT21 45 CO2e April 29,
36 Summary Natural gas has been increasing its market share for decades Technologies that make commercially available gas more abundant and less expensive accelerate this trend This has major implications for competition among all primary energy sources; for energy production, transformation, distribution and end use; energy security; local and regional air pollution; investments in facilities and infrastructure; supply and value chain interactions within and among sectors and regions and trade Gas displaces other fuels but does not significantly alter the overall scale of the global energy system through 25 Gas trade patterns change significantly, e.g. the USA becomes a small net exporter Availability of abundant, less expensive gas through 25 does not significantly change Global fossil fuel CO 2 emissions or total radiative forcing, or The carbon price required in an idealized mitigation scenario
37 END April 29,
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