Implications of Abundant Natural Gas

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Implications of Abundant Natural Gas"

Transcription

1 Implications of Abundant Natural Gas JAE EDMONDS AND HAEWON MCJEON APRIL 213 April 29, 213 1

2 Gas and the Global Energy System Gas is has been a growing component of the global energy system for some time. April 29, 213 Grubler et al., 212: Chapter 1 - Energy Primer. In Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future. 2

3 A brief history of thinking about Natural Gas Resources In the 199s total gas reserves were thought to be more abundant than oil, but gas production was expected to peak and decline before mid-21 st century, because gas exploitable resources were economically limited to conventional resources. Unconventional resources were thought to be too expensive ever to be relevant. In 1997, Rogner s work on natural resources indicated that unconventional gas was abundant. But, modelers either were slow to incorporate unconventional gas (and oil) into their thinking or priced them as more expensive than conventional resources. And then a technological revolution happened. April 29, 213 3

4 The natural gas revolution The application of technologies for accessing unconventional gas shales in the United States has dramatically increased gas production, and estimates of recoverable resources even more. And, dramatically reduced natural gas prices. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 212 4

5 Key Questions As application of new production technology spreads beyond the United States: How will this change our understanding of the scale and composition of the evolving global energy system? How will this affect energy security and international trade? How will this affect local and regional air quality? What effect will this have on CO 2 and other GHG emissions and the technologies for their use in the near term and long term? Globally and regionally With and without emissions mitigation policies Implications for regional air pollution April 29, 213 5

6 How Much Gas Is Out There? April 29, 213 6

7 EJ EJ Fossil Fuel Resources How much natural gas is there and how much does it cost? How much in the larger sense means resource availability Oil, Gas and Coal Conventional and unconventional for oil and gas Coal is just too abundant to divide up that way. 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, - oil gas coal 1, 9, unconventional 8, resource 7, unconventional 6, reserve 5, conventional 4, resource 3, conventional 2, reserve 1, - oil gas coal unconventional resource unconventional reserve conventional resource conventional reserve 7

8 How much does it cost? To help us understand the implications of abundant and inexpensive natural gas availability for the global energy system, we have developed three alternative global and regional resource supply schedules. Gas Technology Circa 199 (Gas Tech 199 or GT199) this supply schedule reflects an understanding of gas resource availability circa 199s. Gas Technology Circa 2 (Gas Tech 2 or GT2) this supply schedule reflects an understanding of gas resource availability in the early 2s. Gas Technology Circa 2 (Gas Tech 21 or GT21) this supply schedule assumes that advanced technologies can be successfully deployed globally. April 29, 213 8

9 25 Extraction Cost (25$/GJ) The three gas supply schedules (global) GT199 - Conventional Gas Resources Only, ca 199s GT2 - Expensive Unconventional Gas, ca 2s GT21 - Abundant and Inexpensive Gas Resources, 21 and beyond 2 GT199 GT2 GT Cumulative Resource (EJ) April 29, 213 9

10 The Global Change Assessment Model 14 Region Energy/Economy Model 151 Agriculture and Land Use Model GCAM is a global integrated assessment model GCAM links Economic, Energy, Landuse, and Climate systems Technology-rich model Emissions of 16 greenhouse gases and short-lived species: CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, halocarbons, carbonaceous aerosols, reactive gases, sulfur dioxide. Runs through 295 in 5-year timesteps. Dynamic Recursive Open Source/Model and Documentation available at: models/gcam/ April 29, 213 1

11 Gas and the Global Energy System April 29,

12 Global Natural Gas Production (EJ) Adding Abundant but EXPENSIVE unconventional gas to Conventional gas Increased late 21 st century production When gas prices were driven up past present prices Near-term gas production and use were similar in GT199 and GT GT2 GT199 April 29,

13 Global Natural Gas Production (EJ) 25$/GJ Abundant AND Inexpensive gas changes our understanding of the near term And lowers the price of natural gas around the world. 35 N. Gas Production 9 GT GT Abundant and inexpensive gas is introduced in North America in 215 and globally in The increase in natural gas production accelerates N. Gas Price domestic natural gas GT2 domestic natural gas GT21 LNG imports GT2 LNG imports GT21 13

14 EJ/yr 25 Global Primary Energy Consumption GT2 1,5 1,7 25 GT21 trad biomass geothermal solar wind hydro nuclear biomass coal natural gas April 29,

15 EJ/yr Abundant and Inexpensive Gas Penetrates Power Production Abundant and inexpensive natural gas displaces other energy carriers in power generation Where it helps lower generation costs Change in Fuel Mix for Power Generation resulting with Abundant and inexpensive natural gas rather than expensive unconventional gas Global power sector consumption in 25 = 185 EJ/yr net change battery CHP solar wind hydro geothermal nuclear biomass liquid fuel gas coal 15

16 EJ/yr 25 Global Final Energy Consumption Change Global consumption in 25 (EJ) building industry transport electricity others renewables nuclear district heat trad biomass hydrogen electricity biomass coal gas liquid fuel April 29,

17 Primary Energy Consumption (EJ/yr) But, a 2% increase in gas use is a much smaller change in global energy use. This effect is more pronounced in some regions with existing infrastructure for natural gas based economy (e.g. FSU). Global Former Soviet Union GT2 GT

18 Gas Trade April 29,

19 Cumulative Natural Gas Net Export Gas Tech ca. 2 Gas Tech ca. 21 Former Soviet Union Canada Middle East Africa Australia_NZ Southeast Asia Latin America China Eastern Europe Korea India Japan USA Western Europe Former Soviet Union Canada Middle East Africa Australia_NZ Southeast Asia Latin America China Eastern Europe Korea India Japan USA Western Europe Cumulative Natural Gas Net Export (EJ) Global natural gas consumption in 25 = 99 EJ/yr Cumulative Natural Gas Net Export (EJ) Cumulative USA natural gas consumption in = 12 EJ ~ 16 EJ April 29,

20 Gas and Greenhouse Emissions Without Climate Policy April 29, 213 2

21 Carbon and Energy How does abundant gas affect expected greenhouse gas emissions? CO 2, and total climate forcing. Carbon and energy Petroleum = ~2 PgC/EJ Coal = ~27 PgC/EJ Natural gas = ~14 PgC/EJ Nuclear, Solar, wind, geothermal, and other renewable energy forms = ~ PgC/EJ Bioenergy is net emissions for the energy sector, but indirect land use change emissions are accounted. Methane emissions have a (1 year) Global Warming Potential of ~25 gco 2 /gch 4 12% of methane emissions was from natural gas in 25. Sources include: emissions from FF, e.g. coal mining, gas transmissions & distribution, gas venting, etc., (also land use, agriculture, animal husbandry, waste ) April 29,

22 Carbon-energy ratios in the larger economy XGAS: Expensive unconventional gas scenario Average carbon intensities (kgc/gj): Natural gas ~14 Petroleum ~2 Coal ~27 Average global 23 ~17 Regional average carbon-energy ratios in 21 (kgc/gj): Average US ~16 Average China ~22 (modern ~24) Average India ~16 (modern ~2) Average W. Europe ~15 Average Africa ~11 (modern ~15) April 29,

23 GtC CO 2 Emissions: Abundant and Inexpensive versus Expensive Unconventional Gas GT21 April 29,

24 GtC CO 2 Emissions: Abundant and Inexpensive versus Expensive Unconventional Gas GT2 GT21 Virtually no change in Fossil Fuel CO 2 emissions. Slightly higher in the early years due to increased energy consumption. Slightly lower in the later years due to crowding out coal. April 29,

25 Radiative Forcing (Wm -2 ) Concentration (ppmv CO2-eq) Radiative Forcing Difference Climate Forcing: Abundant and Inexpensive versus Expensive Unconventional Gas Radiative forcing increases slightly. Reduced SO 2 from coal burning reduce cooling effect. Increased fugitive methane emissions from natural gas extraction. Smaller countervailing effect of reduced fugitive methane emissions from coal mining. Reduced Black Carbon emissions from coal burning. Slightly reduced CO 2 emissions from reduced biomass land use change emissions Radiative Forcing GT2 25 GT Radiative Forcing Difference 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% -.5% CO2 CH4 N2O Other Kyoto Gases SO2 All Other Gases Net Total April 29,

26 Why did CO 2 emissions not decline? Two effects of abundant and inexpensive unconventional gas 1. Carbon-intensity reduction effect on average more gas means a lower carbon-energy ratio 2. Demand expansion effect on average energy is less expensive, so people use more. These two effects roughly cancel at a global scale. April 29,

27 ΔMtC Africa Australia_NZ Canada China Eastern Europe Former Soviet Union India Japan Korea Latin America Middle East Southeast Asia USA Western Europe Regional changes in carbon emissions April 29,

28 EJ/yr Global Primary Energy Consumption Change Global Total 493 EJ/yr in 25 In general changes are modest trad biomass geothermal solar wind hydro nuclear biomass coal natural gas oil net change April 29,

29 EJ/yr EJ/yr EJ/yr EJ/yr Global trad biomass 2 geothermal solar 1 wind hydro nuclear biomass coal -1 natural gas oil net change -2 China trad biom geotherm solar wind hydro nuclear biomass coal natural g oil net chan USA trad biomass 8 geothermal solar 4 wind hydro nuclear biomass coal -4 natural gas oil net change -8 Africa trad biom geotherm solar wind hydro nuclear biomass coal natural g oil net chan 29

30 Gas and Emissions Mitigation April 29, 213 3

31 Abundant natural gas and greenhouse gas emissions mitigation How is that understanding different compared with our earlier understanding? Which policy? Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations (the goal of the Framework Convention on Climate Change) Analysis assumptions: Ambitious policy goal: 45 ppm CO 2 -e (2.6 Wm -2 ) in 21 Idealized policy All regions face a common carbon tax All sectors face a common carbon tax The carbon tax rises over time at the idealized Hotelling rate. Full suite of technologies available Nuclear, CO 2 capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy, forest sequestration, renewable energy, energy efficiency April 29,

32 Primary Energy Consumption (EJ/yr) Primary Energy Consumption (EJ/yr) Primary Energy Consumption (EJ/yr) Fossil Fuel Consumption GT2 GT2 45 CO2e GT21 GT21 45 CO2e GAS Abundant and inexpensive gas increases gas usage in climate mitigation scenarios. 1 5 Larger than in the expensive gas reference scenario. But, not as large as in the Abundant and inexpensive gas reference scenario i.e. climate mitigation does not enhance gas usage. OIL Abundant and inexpensive gas reduces oil demands, but not much. 5 Climate policy reduces the demand for oil, but also, not much. COAL Abundant and inexpensive gas reduces coal demands, but not much. Climate policy reduces the demand for coal use, a lot.

33 Primary Energy Consumption (EJ/yr) Primary Energy Consumption (EJ/yr) Primary Energy Consumption (EJ/yr) Fossil Fuel Consumption GT2 GT2 45 CO2e GT21 GT21 45 CO2e GAS Abundant and inexpensive gas increases gas usage in climate mitigation scenarios. 1 5 Larger than in the expensive gas reference scenario. But, not as large as in the Abundant and inexpensive gas reference scenario i.e. climate mitigation does not enhance gas usage. OIL Abundant and inexpensive gas reduces oil demands, but not much. 5 Climate policy reduces the demand for oil, but also, not much. COAL Abundant and inexpensive gas reduces coal demands, but not much. Climate policy reduces the demand for coal use, a lot.

34 Primary Energy Consumption (EJ/yr) Primary Energy Consumption (EJ/yr) Primary Energy Consumption (EJ/yr) Fossil Fuel Consumption GT2 GT2 45 CO2e GT21 GT21 45 CO2e GAS Abundant and inexpensive gas increases gas usage in climate mitigation scenarios. 1 5 Larger than in the expensive gas reference scenario. But, not as large as in the Abundant and inexpensive gas reference scenario i.e. climate mitigation does not enhance gas usage. OIL Abundant and inexpensive gas reduces oil demands, but not much. 5 Climate policy reduces the demand for oil, but also, not much. COAL Abundant and inexpensive gas reduces coal demands, but not much. Climate policy reduces the demand for coal use, a lot.

35 Carbon Price 25$/tCO GT2 45 CO2e GT21 45 CO2e April 29,

36 Summary Natural gas has been increasing its market share for decades Technologies that make commercially available gas more abundant and less expensive accelerate this trend This has major implications for competition among all primary energy sources; for energy production, transformation, distribution and end use; energy security; local and regional air pollution; investments in facilities and infrastructure; supply and value chain interactions within and among sectors and regions and trade Gas displaces other fuels but does not significantly alter the overall scale of the global energy system through 25 Gas trade patterns change significantly, e.g. the USA becomes a small net exporter Availability of abundant, less expensive gas through 25 does not significantly change Global fossil fuel CO 2 emissions or total radiative forcing, or The carbon price required in an idealized mitigation scenario

37 END April 29,

GCAM Scenarios and Latin America

GCAM Scenarios and Latin America GCAM Scenarios and Latin America Leon Clarke for the GCAM Team October 2, 212 San Jose, Costa Rica 2 Overview of GCAM GCAM: The Global Change Assessment Model 14 Region Energy/Economy Model Regions 151

More information

Overview of GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) Sonny Kim JGCRI PNNL/UMD November 4, 2010

Overview of GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) Sonny Kim JGCRI PNNL/UMD November 4, 2010 Overview of GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) Sonny Kim JGCRI PNNL/UMD November 4, 21 The Integrated Assessment Framework MAGICC/SCENGEN ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION CLIMATE & SEA LEVEL Atmospheric Chemistry

More information

How effective would a global version of the EU policy be?

How effective would a global version of the EU policy be? How effective would a global version of the EU 2-2-2 policy be? JAE EDMONDS AND KATHERINE CALVIN Joint GCAM Community Modeling Meeting and GTSP Technical Workshop Joint Global Change Research Institute

More information

Modeling Post-2012 Climate Policy Scenarios

Modeling Post-2012 Climate Policy Scenarios Modeling Post-2012 Climate Policy Scenarios Interim Results Elliot Diringer, Director of International Strategies Pew Center on Global Climate Change Leon Clarke, Kate Calvin, Marshall Wise, Jae Edmonds

More information

The Impact of Emissions Mitigation on Water Demand for Electricity Generation

The Impact of Emissions Mitigation on Water Demand for Electricity Generation The Impact of Emissions Mitigation on Water Demand for Electricity Generation PAGE KYLE, EVAN DAVIES, JAMES DOOLEY, STEVE SMITH, MOHAMAD HEJAZI, JAE EDMONDS, AND LEON CLARKE Joint GCAM Community Modeling

More information

International and National Policy

International and National Policy Sectoral Approaches in International and National Policy 2nd International Expert Meeting on Bottom-up Based Analysis on Mitigation Potential Leon Clarke, Kate Calvin October 21, 2008 Acknowledgements

More information

Tackling Energy Security in Europe: the Role of the Electricity Sector

Tackling Energy Security in Europe: the Role of the Electricity Sector Tackling Energy Security in Europe: the Role of the Electricity Sector Uwe Remme, Markus Blesl Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy (IER) University of Stuttgart IAEE 28 June 18-2,

More information

AGRICULTURE WATER DEMAND. Incorporating water in GCAM. Vaibhav Chaturvedi

AGRICULTURE WATER DEMAND. Incorporating water in GCAM. Vaibhav Chaturvedi AGRICULTURE WATER DEMAND Incorporating water in GCAM Vaibhav Chaturvedi Background! Agriculture highest consumer of water globally, more than 70% of global water withdrawals! Increasing population and

More information

Technology and Climate Policy in the Post-Copenhagen World: GTSP Research

Technology and Climate Policy in the Post-Copenhagen World: GTSP Research Technology and Climate Policy in the Post-Copenhagen World: GTSP Research Jae Edmonds The Global Energy Technology Strategy Annual Meeting May 23, 2011 The Cosmos Club, Washington, DC Acknowledgements!

More information

Sectoral Approaches in International and National Policy

Sectoral Approaches in International and National Policy Sectoral Approaches in International and National Policy 2nd International Expert Meeting on Bottom-up Based Analysis on Mitigation Potential Leon Clarke, Kate Calvin October 21, 2008 Acknowledgements

More information

IEEJ: December 2013 All Right Reserved Implications of the Changing Energy Map Comments for IEA WEO 2013 Symposium Tokyo 28 November, 2013 The Institu

IEEJ: December 2013 All Right Reserved Implications of the Changing Energy Map Comments for IEA WEO 2013 Symposium Tokyo 28 November, 2013 The Institu Implications of the Changing Energy Map Comments for IEA WEO 2013 Symposium Tokyo 28 November, 2013 The Institute of Energy Economics, Yukari Yamashita Board Member, Director Energy Data and Modelling

More information

James J Dooley Joint Global Change Research Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle PNNL-SA-52439

James J Dooley Joint Global Change Research Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle PNNL-SA-52439 On the Potential Large-Scale Commercial Deployment of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage Technologies: Findings from Phase 2 of the Global Energy Technology Strategy Project James J Dooley (dooleyj@battelle.org)

More information

Agriculture, Energy, Land and Water in GCAM

Agriculture, Energy, Land and Water in GCAM Agriculture,, Land and Water in GCAM Jae Edmonds 14 December 2012 National Institutes for Environmental Studies Tsukuba, Japan Long term research support provided by The Global Change Assessment Model

More information

Global Gas Projections: the Potential Impact of Unconventional Gas Production in the United States and China. Dr Brian Fisher

Global Gas Projections: the Potential Impact of Unconventional Gas Production in the United States and China. Dr Brian Fisher Global Gas Projections: the Potential Impact of Unconventional Gas Production in the United States and China Dr Brian Fisher Presenta.on to the Global Energy Technology Strategy Program Workshop: Abundant

More information

World Energy Outlook Bo Diczfalusy, Näringsdepartementet

World Energy Outlook Bo Diczfalusy, Näringsdepartementet World Energy Outlook 2013 Bo Diczfalusy, Näringsdepartementet Energy demand & GDP Trillion dollars (2012) 50 40 30 20 10 000 Mtoe 8 000 6 000 4 000 GDP: OECD Non-OECD TPED (right axis): OECD Non-OECD 10

More information

Earth s energy balance and the greenhouse effect

Earth s energy balance and the greenhouse effect Earth s energy balance and the greenhouse effect Average incident solar radiation 342 W/m 2 Reflection to space by atmosphere, clouds, and earth surface 102 W/m 2 Infrared radiation emitted to space 240

More information

Hydrogen in An Energy System Context

Hydrogen in An Energy System Context Hydrogen in An Energy System Context Supply & Demand Side Technology Competition John Clarke and Jae Edmonds Nuclear Hydrogen Workshop General Atomic, May 14-15, 22 National Laboratory Some Fundamental

More information

John Gale General Manager IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme

John Gale General Manager IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme The role of CCS as a climate change mitigation option, Energy technology perspectives p John Gale General Manager IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme Public Power Corporation Seminar on CCS Athens, Greece

More information

GCAM GAINS Scenario Comparison

GCAM GAINS Scenario Comparison GCAM GAINS Scenario Comparison STEVEN J. SMITH 2030 Global Emission Scenarios Workshop International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg, Austria October 8, 2012 PNNL- SA- xxxx OUTLINE In

More information

Climate Impact on U.S. Building Energy Use

Climate Impact on U.S. Building Energy Use Climate Impact on U.S. Building Energy Use YUYU ZHOU, LEON CLARKE, JIYONG EOM, PAGE KYLE, PRALIT PATEL Joint GCAM Community Modeling Meeting and GTSP Technical Workshop Joint Global Change Research Institute

More information

Global Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector

Global Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector Global Climate Change and the Unique (?) Challenges Posed by the Transportation Sector 8 th Diesel Engine Emissions Reduction Conference August 26, 2002 Pacific Northwest National Laboratory James J Dooley,

More information

U.S. Reflections on Outcomes and Implications of Bali

U.S. Reflections on Outcomes and Implications of Bali U.S. Reflections on Outcomes and Implications of Bali Dr. Harlan L. Watson Senior Climate Negotiator and Special Representative U.S. Department of State IISD Conference on A Way Forward: Canadian and International

More information

Trends in Energy Scenario Development

Trends in Energy Scenario Development Trends in Energy Scenario Development Cecilia Tam, Senior Energy Analyst, International Energy Agency APERC Annual Conference, Tokyo 30-31 May 2018 IEA Context Energy Efficiency: The world is generating

More information

RENEWABLE ENERGY DEPLOYMENT AND FINANCIAL DE-RISKING

RENEWABLE ENERGY DEPLOYMENT AND FINANCIAL DE-RISKING RENEWABLE ENERGY DEPLOYMENT AND FINANCIAL DE-RISKING A CASE STUDY FOR AFRICA Bob van der Zwaan with Bart Sweerts and Francesco Dalla Longa 13-15 November 2018, IAMC, Sevilla, Spain GHG EMISSION PATHWAYS

More information

Milken Institute: Center for Accelerating Energy Solutions

Milken Institute: Center for Accelerating Energy Solutions Milken Institute: Center for Accelerating Energy Solutions Center for Accelerating Energy Solutions Promotes policy and market mechanisms to build a more stable and sustainable energy future Identifies

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition

BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition BP Energy Outlook 217 edition Margaret Chen Head of China Economist bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Economic backdrop Contributions to GDP growth by factor Contributions to GDP growth by region % per annum

More information

CONTENTS TABLE OF PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS PART B SPECIAL FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY OECD/IEA, 2016 ANNEXES

CONTENTS TABLE OF PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS PART B SPECIAL FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY OECD/IEA, 2016 ANNEXES TABLE OF CONTENTS PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS PART B SPECIAL FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY ANNEXES INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE 1 OVERVIEW 2 OIL MARKET OUTLOOK 3 NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOOK 4 COAL MARKET OUTLOOK

More information

OECD/IEA Dr. Johannes Trüby, IEA IGU Diplomatic Gas Forum Oslo 5 December 2017

OECD/IEA Dr. Johannes Trüby, IEA IGU Diplomatic Gas Forum Oslo 5 December 2017 Dr. Johannes Trüby, IEA IGU Diplomatic Gas Forum Oslo 5 December 2017 Tipping the energy world off its axis Four large-scale upheavals in global energy set the scene for the new Outlook: The United States

More information

Long Term Trends in Electric Power

Long Term Trends in Electric Power Long Term Trends in Electric Power STEVEN J. SMITH 2030 Global Emission Scenarios Workshop International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg, Austria October 9, 2012 PNNL- SA- xxxx Introduction!

More information

Biomass Energy for Transport and. under low CO2 concentration scenarios

Biomass Energy for Transport and. under low CO2 concentration scenarios Biomass Energy for Transport and Electricity: Large scale utilization under low CO2 concentration scenarios PW Luckow, MA Wise, JJ Dooley, SH Kim College Park, MD May 26, 2010 1 Major Themes of Forthcoming

More information

EPA Analysis of the Waxman-Markey Discussion Draft: The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 Executive Summary April 20, 2009

EPA Analysis of the Waxman-Markey Discussion Draft: The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 Executive Summary April 20, 2009 Summary EPA Analysis of the Waxman-Markey Discussion Draft: The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 Executive Summary April 20, 2009 At the request of House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman

More information

Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change: Perspectives on Renewable Fuels

Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change: Perspectives on Renewable Fuels Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change: Perspectives on Renewable Fuels John Reilly jreilly@mit.edu 1 Vision and Overview Discover new interactions among natural and human climate system

More information

Dr. Fatih BIROL IEA Chief Economist Tokyo, 17 February 2015

Dr. Fatih BIROL IEA Chief Economist Tokyo, 17 February 2015 Dr. Fatih BIROL IEA Chief Economist Tokyo, 17 February 2015 Signs of stress in the global energy system Current calm in markets should not disguise difficult road ahead Turmoil in the Middle East raises

More information

IEEJ:October 2016 IEEJ2016 The global energy outlook and what it means for Japan Paul Simons Deputy Executive Director, International Energy Agency Ja

IEEJ:October 2016 IEEJ2016 The global energy outlook and what it means for Japan Paul Simons Deputy Executive Director, International Energy Agency Ja The global energy outlook and what it means for Japan Paul Simons Deputy Executive Director, International Energy Agency Japan IDR launch Tokyo, 21 September 2016 Long-term energy demand set to grow fast

More information

OECD/IEA Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency Istanbul, 15 December 2017

OECD/IEA Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency Istanbul, 15 December 2017 Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency Istanbul, 15 December 2017 Tipping the energy world off its axis Four large-scale upheavals in global energy set the scene for the new Outlook:

More information

CURRENT AND FUTURE ENERGY SOURCES OF THE WORLD

CURRENT AND FUTURE ENERGY SOURCES OF THE WORLD CURRENT AND FUTURE ENERGY SOURCES OF THE WORLD The World s energy supply sources The World s energy supply sources for the year 2008 and projected supply for the year 2035 are shown in the figures below.

More information

European Shale Gas Potential

European Shale Gas Potential European Shale Gas Potential (from WEO2010 and Golden Age of Gas report) Chris Besson International Energy Agency October 2011 OECD/IEA 2010 Shale gas: a working definition Gas found in rock formations

More information

World Energy Outlook 2013

World Energy Outlook 2013 World Energy Outlook 2013 Paweł Olejarnik IEA Energy Analyst Warszawa, 15 Listopada 2013 The world energy scene today Some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten Countries are switching

More information

Integrating climate, air pollution & universal access: The Sustainable Development Scenario

Integrating climate, air pollution & universal access: The Sustainable Development Scenario Integrating climate, air pollution & universal access: The Sustainable Development Scenario Dr. Timur Gül, IEA COP23, Bonn, 16 November 2017 Context The SDGs recognise climate change, air pollution and

More information

Bioenergy with CO 2 Capture and Geologic Storage

Bioenergy with CO 2 Capture and Geologic Storage Bioenergy with CO 2 Capture and Geologic Storage Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) Presented by Jae Edmonds EPRI Global Climate Change Research Seminar Washington, DC May 19, 2009 PNNL-17943

More information

Global energy markets outlook versus post-paris Agreement Impact on South East Europe

Global energy markets outlook versus post-paris Agreement Impact on South East Europe Global energy markets outlook versus post-paris Agreement Impact on South East Europe Sylvia Elisabeth Beyer International Energy Agency Thessaloniki, 29 June 2016 A 2 C pathway requires more technological

More information

CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas SUMMARY Medium and Long Term Natural Gas Outlook 2018

CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas SUMMARY Medium and Long Term Natural Gas Outlook 2018 CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas SUMMARY Medium and Long Term Natural Gas Outlook 218 CEDIGAZ, June 218 CEDIGAZ Reference Scenario: Main characteristics Main trends (%/year) Main

More information

OECD/IEA London, 14 November 2017

OECD/IEA London, 14 November 2017 London, 14 November 2017 Tipping the energy world off its axis Four large-scale upheavals in global energy set the scene for the new Outlook: The United States is turning into the undisputed global leader

More information

XLVII Meeting of OLADE Ministers Buenos Aires, 6 December Paul Simons, IEA Deputy Executive Director

XLVII Meeting of OLADE Ministers Buenos Aires, 6 December Paul Simons, IEA Deputy Executive Director XLVII Meeting of OLADE Ministers Buenos Aires, 6 December 2017 Paul Simons, IEA Deputy Executive Director Tipping the energy world off its axis Four large-scale upheavals in global energy set the scene

More information

IEEJ 2019, All rights reserved

IEEJ 2019, All rights reserved 1 Advanced Technologies Scenario Coal declines while oil hits peak in 2030 2 6 5 4 3 2 1 Gtoe Primary energy demand (Solid lines: Advanced Technologies, dashed lines: Reference) Oil Coal Natural gas Renewables

More information

I. CITIES AND ENERGY USE

I. CITIES AND ENERGY USE I. CITIES AND ENERGY USE A. Background Energy is the lifeblood of modern industrial society. Modern cities rely heavily on fossil fuels for the maintenance of essential services and for powering devices

More information

Highlights. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region,

Highlights. Figure 1. World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, Highlights World energy consumption is projected to increase by 71 percent from 3 to 23. Fossil fuels continue to supply much of the energy used worldwide, and oil remains the dominant energy source. In

More information

Spencer Dale Group chief economist

Spencer Dale Group chief economist Spencer Dale Group chief economist Energy Outlook scenarios Primary energy consumption by fuel CO 2 emissions Billion toe Gt of CO 2 25 4 Renew.* 5 4 Evolving transition (ET) More energy (ME) Less globalization

More information

Energy & Climate Change ENYGF 2015

Energy & Climate Change ENYGF 2015 Energy & Climate Change ENYGF 2015 Ellina Levina Environment & Climate Change Unit Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology, IEA 22 June 2015 29 Member Countries: Australia, Japan, Korea, New Zealand,

More information

OECD/IEA Brent Wanner, Senior Energy Analyst Stockholm, 24 November 2015

OECD/IEA Brent Wanner, Senior Energy Analyst Stockholm, 24 November 2015 Brent Wanner, Senior Energy Analyst Stockholm, 24 November 2015 The start of a new energy era? 2015 has seen lower prices for all fossil fuels Oil & gas could face second year of falling upstream investment

More information

Fuels Used in Electricity Generation

Fuels Used in Electricity Generation Fuels Used in Electricity Generation for Energy and Climate Change Research Seminar May 17 th, 2012 Washington, DC by, Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear and Renewables Analysis Energy Information Administration

More information

Third IEA IEF OPEC Symposium on Gas and Coal Market Outlooks. Tim Gould, IEA

Third IEA IEF OPEC Symposium on Gas and Coal Market Outlooks. Tim Gould, IEA Third IEA IEF OPEC Symposium on Gas and Coal Market Outlooks Tim Gould, IEA A new fuel in pole position Change in global primary energy demand Mtoe 2 000 1990-2015 2015-2040 Rest of world 1 500 1 000 Renewables

More information

World Energy Outlook Dr Fatih Birol Chief Economist, IEA Istanbul, 20 December

World Energy Outlook Dr Fatih Birol Chief Economist, IEA Istanbul, 20 December World Energy Outlook 2013 Dr Fatih Birol Chief Economist, IEA Istanbul, 20 December The world energy scene today Some long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten Countries are switching roles:

More information

Issues and Concepts in Projecting Baseline Emissions

Issues and Concepts in Projecting Baseline Emissions Issues and Concepts in Projecting Baseline Emissions Leon Clarke Climate Change Expert Group Global Forum OECD Conference Center, Paris March 19-2, 213 The modeling community has produced many baseline

More information

CCSP Product 2.1A: An Application of Integrated Assessment Modeling. Leon Clarke Joint Global Change Research Institute

CCSP Product 2.1A: An Application of Integrated Assessment Modeling. Leon Clarke Joint Global Change Research Institute CCSP Product 2.1A: An Application of Integrated Assessment Modeling Leon Clarke Joint Global Change Research Institute Integrated Assessment Modeling 2 Integrated Assessment: A Comprehensive Paradigm Atmospheric

More information

U.S. Climate Change Policy

U.S. Climate Change Policy U.S. Climate Change Policy Dr. Harlan Watson Senior Climate Negotiator and Special Representative U.S. Department of State Joint Meeting of Global Environment Subcommittee and Expert Committee to Study

More information

OECD/IEA Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency Statoil Autumn Conference Oslo, 28 November 2017

OECD/IEA Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency Statoil Autumn Conference Oslo, 28 November 2017 Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency Statoil Autumn Conference Oslo, 28 November 2017 Tipping the energy world off its axis Four large-scale upheavals in global energy set the

More information

Delivering on the clean energy agenda: prospects and the role for policy

Delivering on the clean energy agenda: prospects and the role for policy Delivering on the clean energy agenda: prospects and the role for policy 6th Asian Ministerial Energy Roundtable 9 November 2015 Keisuke Sadamori Director, Energy Markets and Security Climate pledges shift

More information

Energy Outlook for ASEAN+3

Energy Outlook for ASEAN+3 The 15 th ASEAN+3 Energy Security Forum March, 218 Energy Outlook for ASEAN+3 Ryo Eto The Institute of Energy Economics, JAPAN (IEEJ) Contents Introduction Modeling framework, Major assumptions TPES, FEC

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition

BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition Bob Dudley Group chief executive bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats BP Energy Outlook 2017 edition Spencer Dale Group chief economist bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Economic backdrop

More information

Global Carbon Finance (GLOCAF) model

Global Carbon Finance (GLOCAF) model OFFICIAL-SENSITIVE Global Carbon Finance (GLOCAF) model PMR Technical Workshop on Post-2020 Mitigation Scenarios and Carbon Pricing Modelling Brasilia, 03 February 2016 Contents Introduction GLOCAF model

More information

WORLDWIDE ENERGY SCENARIO AN OVERVIEW

WORLDWIDE ENERGY SCENARIO AN OVERVIEW CHAPTER - I WORLDWIDE ENERGY SCENARIO AN OVERVIEW CHAPTER - I WORLDWIDE ENERGY SCENARIO - AN OVERVIEW 1.1 Introduction The world is hurtling towards two major crises: serious energy shortages and accelerating

More information

Renewable Energy: Pathways to a Sustainable Future

Renewable Energy: Pathways to a Sustainable Future National Renewable Energy Laboratory Renewable Energy: Pathways to a Sustainable Future Richard H. Truly, Director National Renewable Energy Laboratory Georgia Institute of Technology Workshop on Sustainable

More information

World primary energy demand in the t Reference Scenario: this is unsustainable!

World primary energy demand in the t Reference Scenario: this is unsustainable! OECD/IEA OECD/IEA -29-29 World primary energy demand in the t Reference Scenario: this is unsustainable! Mtoe 18 Other renewables 16 Hydro 14 12 Nuclear 1 Biomass 8 Gas 6 Coal 4 Oil 2 198 199 2 21 22 23

More information

A b u D h a b i 3rd 5th June 2015

A b u D h a b i 3rd 5th June 2015 A b u D h a b i 3rd 5th June 2015 Effect of the energy and climate policies in the future Mexican electricity system Helena Cabal Cuesta Yolanda Lechón Pérez Antonio Rodríguez Martínez David Castrejón

More information

Global Bioenergy Market Developments

Global Bioenergy Market Developments Global Bioenergy Market Developments Dr. Heinz Kopetz World Bioenergy Association Tokyo, 9 March 2012 Japan Renewable Energy Foundation - Revision 2012 The importance of biomass Biomass is organic matter

More information

Tipping the energy world off its axis Four large-scale upheavals in global energy : - The United States is turning into the undisputed global leader f

Tipping the energy world off its axis Four large-scale upheavals in global energy : - The United States is turning into the undisputed global leader f The rapidly changing global energy landscape Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency IEEJ, Tokyo, 27 February 2018 IEA Tipping the energy world off its axis Four large-scale upheavals

More information

Tipping the energy world off its axis Four large-scale upheavals in global energy : - The United States is turning into the undisputed global leader f

Tipping the energy world off its axis Four large-scale upheavals in global energy : - The United States is turning into the undisputed global leader f The rapidly changing global energy landscape Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency IEEJ, Tokyo, 27 February 2018 IEA Tipping the energy world off its axis Four large-scale upheavals

More information

The State of Energy and Power Generation/ Consumption in China

The State of Energy and Power Generation/ Consumption in China UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH The State of Energy and Power Generation/ Consumption in China Minking K. Chyu Leighton and Mary Orr Chair Professor and Chairman Department of Mechanical Engineering and Materials

More information

Plenary Session 1: Global Shifts: The Future of Energy Security: Finding New Balances. Background Paper

Plenary Session 1: Global Shifts: The Future of Energy Security: Finding New Balances. Background Paper India New Delhi Plenary Session 1: Global Shifts: The Future of Energy Security: Finding New Balances Background Paper Disclaimer The observations presented herein are meant as background for the dialogue

More information

APEC ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY OUTLOOK

APEC ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY OUTLOOK 2002/09/12 ASIA PACIFIC ENERGY RESEARCH CENTRE APEC ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY OUTLOOK 2002 1 PRESS RELEASE STUDY OBJECTIVES This Outlook is intended to foster member economies understanding of energy demand

More information

Outcome of the World Energy Congress 2013 in Daegu

Outcome of the World Energy Congress 2013 in Daegu Mag. Dr. Stephan Sharma Outcome of the World Energy Congress 2013 in Daegu Global trends and insights for Europe Vienna, March, 20th, 2014 Challenges for energy economic 4 A s Energy Trilemma Energy Dilemma

More information

Politique et sécurité énergétique dans le contexte des nouvelles énergies

Politique et sécurité énergétique dans le contexte des nouvelles énergies Politique et sécurité énergétique dans le contexte des nouvelles énergies Didier Houssin Director, Energy Markets and Security International Energy Agency Colloque L Energie : enjeux socio-économiques

More information

Assessing Today's Supplies to Fuel Tomorrow's Growth

Assessing Today's Supplies to Fuel Tomorrow's Growth WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK - INSIGHTS Assessing Today's Supplies to Fuel Tomorrow's Growth Dr. Fatih Birol Head, Economic Analysis Division International Agency / OECD World Series World 1998 World 1999 Looking

More information

Future Energy Insights and Nuclear Power

Future Energy Insights and Nuclear Power Future Energy Insights and Nuclear Power Mark Howells, Professor and head of the division of Energy Systems Analysis (KTH-dESA) Royal Institute of Technology, SWEDEN division of Energy Systems Analysis

More information

Facing the global energy trilemma: growth, climate and universal access

Facing the global energy trilemma: growth, climate and universal access Facing the global energy trilemma: growth, climate and universal access Ivan Faiella Bank of Italy Structural Analysis Department* Climate Finance e accesso universale all'energia Nona Conferenza Banca

More information

Mitigation and Adaptation

Mitigation and Adaptation Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer Mitigation and Adaptation Our Common Future Hannover, 4th November 2010 Volkswagen Stiftung Tipping Points in the Earth System T. M. Lenton & H. J. Schellnhuber (Nature Reports

More information

Environmental Measures

Environmental Measures Environmental Measures Reinforcement of Conventional Environmental Measures in Developing Countries Points In Asia, especially in China, emissions of SOx and other air pollutants are expected to increase

More information

The Economics of International Offsets

The Economics of International Offsets The Economics of International Offsets KATE CALVIN, JAE EDMONDS, MARSHALL WISE GTSP TECHNICAL WORKSHOP COLLEGE PARK, MD October 1, 2013 This work has been done with support from Electric Power Research

More information

World Energy Outlook Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Rome, 18 November 2009

World Energy Outlook Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Rome, 18 November 2009 World Energy Outlook 29 Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Rome, 18 November 29 Change in primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario, 27-23 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear OECD Non-OECD Hydro Biomass Other

More information

International Energy Outlook: key findings in the 216 Reference case World energy consumption increases from 549 quadrillion Btu in 212 to 629 quadril

International Energy Outlook: key findings in the 216 Reference case World energy consumption increases from 549 quadrillion Btu in 212 to 629 quadril EIA's Global Energy Outlook For The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan October 5, 216 Japan By Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

More information

OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2011

OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2011 World Energy Outlook 211 The context: fresh challenges add to already worrying trends Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy and limited the means of intervention Post-Fukushima,

More information

Medium Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2013

Medium Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2013 Renewable Energy Market Report 213 Michael Waldron Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency OECD/IEA 213 OECD/IEA 213 MTRMR methodology and scope Analysis of drivers and challenges for RE

More information

API Automotive/Petroleum Industry Forum Alessandro Faldi

API Automotive/Petroleum Industry Forum Alessandro Faldi API Automotive/Petroleum Industry Forum Alessandro Faldi April 17, 2018 2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts

More information

A Forecast to 2050 Tekna April 11, 2018

A Forecast to 2050 Tekna April 11, 2018 A Forecast to 2050 Tekna April 11, 2018 Bent Erik Bakken - Senior Principal Scientist, Deputy Director Energy Transition Programme, Group Technology and Research Bent.erik.bakken@dnvgl.com Well placed

More information

Climate change and the global energy transition

Climate change and the global energy transition Climate change and the global energy transition Dave Turk Acting Director Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks Global emissions stagnate, but there are regional variations Change in annual

More information

Modelling 1.5 o C scenarios: Scientific challenges and consequences for policy making

Modelling 1.5 o C scenarios: Scientific challenges and consequences for policy making Low Carbon Society Research Network 8 th Annual Meeting Modelling 1.5 o C scenarios: Scientific challenges and consequences for policy making Mikiko Kainuma Institute for Global Environmental Strategies

More information

OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2011 focus on oil, gas and coal

OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2011 focus on oil, gas and coal World Energy Outlook 2011 focus on oil, gas and coal The context: fresh challenges add to already worrying trends Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy and limited the means of intervention

More information

Impact of American Unconventional Oil and Gas Revolution

Impact of American Unconventional Oil and Gas Revolution National University of Singapore Energy Studies Institute 18 May 215 Impact of American Unconventional Oil and Gas Revolution Edward C. Chow Senior Fellow Revenge of the Oil Price Cycle American Innovation:

More information

World Energy Outlook 2010 Renewables in MENA. Maria Argiri Office of the Chief Economist 15 December 2010

World Energy Outlook 2010 Renewables in MENA. Maria Argiri Office of the Chief Economist 15 December 2010 World Energy Outlook 2010 Renewables in MENA Maria Argiri Office of the Chief Economist 15 December 2010 The context: a time of unprecedented uncertainty The worst of the global economic crisis appears

More information

WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division

WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2002 Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division World Energy Outlook Series World Energy Outlook 1998 World Energy Outlook - 1999 Insights: Looking at Energy

More information

BP Energy Outlook 2035

BP Energy Outlook 2035 BP Energy Outlook 235 Focus on North America, March 215 bp.com/energyoutlook #BPstats Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global economic growth,

More information

Improving representation of electric end-use technologies in global scenarios

Improving representation of electric end-use technologies in global scenarios Improving representation of electric end-use technologies in global scenarios Taishi Sugiyama*, Masa Sugiyama** and Takeo Imanaka CRIEPI * sugiyama@criepi.denken.or.jp, ** s-masa@criepi.denken.or.jp February

More information

Dr. Johannes Trüby, IEA Clean Coal Day, Tokyo 5 September 2017

Dr. Johannes Trüby, IEA Clean Coal Day, Tokyo 5 September 2017 Dr. Johannes Trüby, IEA Clean Coal Day, Tokyo 5 September 2017 Global CO 2 emissions flat for 3 years Global energy-related CO 2 emissions Gt 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

More information

CEEPR/EPRG/EDF European Energy Policy Conference. Dr Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency Paris, 7 July 2016

CEEPR/EPRG/EDF European Energy Policy Conference. Dr Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency Paris, 7 July 2016 CEEPR/EPRG/EDF European Energy Policy Conference Dr Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency Paris, 7 July 2016 Demand growth in Asia the sequel Change in energy demand in selected regions,

More information

Energy and CO 2 Emissions Outlook

Energy and CO 2 Emissions Outlook INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Energy and CO 2 Emissions Outlook World Energy Outlook - 2006 Laura Cozzi Economic Analysis Division The Reference Scenario: World Primary Energy Demand 18 000 16 000 14 000

More information

Soaring energy prices to mid 2008, followed by a collapse what will it mean for demand? How will the financial crisis & economic slowdown affect

Soaring energy prices to mid 2008, followed by a collapse what will it mean for demand? How will the financial crisis & economic slowdown affect OECD/IEA OECD/IEA - 2009-2009 The context Soaring energy prices to mid 2008, followed by a collapse what will it mean for demand? How will the financial crisis & economic slowdown affect energy demand

More information