Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model Challenges and Opportunities

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1 Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model Challenges and Opportunities Peter J. Singhofen, P.E. Streamline Technologies, Inc. psinghofen@icpr4.com

2 Part 1 Florida is Different , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

3 Most watershed tools assume but Florida looks like this! Source: Al Karlin, SWFWMD , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

4 8 miles 28 sq.mi. 0.60% slope 14 miles 34 sq.mi. 0.05% slope TEXAS FLORIDA , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

5 2D Overland Flow in ICPR4 Finite Volume Method Double Mesh Flexible Triangular Mesh: Lump Momentum Equations Along Edges Honeycomb Mesh: Lump Mass Balance Equations , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

6 TEXAS TEXAS HONEYCOMB , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

7 FLORIDA HONEYCOMB , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

8 17,100 cfs 460 cfs 11.2 Rainfall in 24 hours Poor Soils in both Watersheds , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

9 Maximum Depths (> 6 ) 27.3 ft 0.5 ft , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

10 Maximum Depths (> 6 ) 7.7 ft 0.5 ft , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

11 Part 2 Primary Challenges 1. Storage & Groundwater 2. Leakage 3. Man-Made Alterations 4. Tidal Considerations 5. Hysteresis Effect , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

12 Challenge #1: Storage & Groundwater 1 km 2 cells , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

13 Challenge #1: Storage & Groundwater , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

14 Challenge #1: Storage & Groundwater , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

15 Challenge #1: Storage & Groundwater , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

16 Challenge #1: Storage & Groundwater , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

17 Challenge #1: Storage & Groundwater , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

18 Challenge #2: Leakage Putnam County, FL 21.6 sq.mi. Part of St. Johns River Basin , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

19 Challenge #2: Leakage ICPR4 Model >150 pot hole depressions Leakage critical factor in water balance Spatiotemporal boundary condition of Floridan Aquifer based on SJRWMD MODFLOW modeling (240 DEMs) , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

20 Challenge #2: Leakage Statistical Metric Targets Coefficient of Determination (R 2 ): Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency (NSE): 0.7 or higher 0.5 or higher Primary Calibration Parameters Leakage Fillable Porosity , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

21 Lake R 2 (1) NSE (1) R 2 (2) NSE (2) R 2 (3) NSE (3) Challenge #5: Leakage Broward Como Crystal Echo Estella Howell Lizzie Little Como Little Mall Margaret North Como Palmer Prior Silver South Como Tarhoe Trone , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

22 Challenge #2: Leakage R 2 = 0.89 NSE = , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

23 Challenge #2: Leakage R 2 = 0.94 NSE = , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

24 Challenge #2: Leakage R 2 = 0.90 NSE = , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

25 Challenge #3: Man-Made Alterations Econlockhatchee River 1 km 2 cells , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

26 Challenge #3: Man-Made Alterations Attenuation Pond Connection to Next Pond Treatment Pond & Control Structure , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

27 Challenge #3: Man-Made Alterations Pipe Channel Node Bridge Catchment Areas ICPR4 Model Control Structure , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

28 Challenge #4: Tidal Considerations Water Surface Profile 100-Year 24-Hour Storm Bayside Gulfside , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

29 Challenge #4: Tidal Considerations Old Port Tampa St. Petersburg , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

30 Challenge #4: Tidal Considerations USGS Cross Bayou Canal at Cedar Brk Dr Peak Rainfall Hermine Peak Surge Model Old Port Tampa Tide Gage (Bayside Boundary) , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

31 Challenge #5: Hysteresis Pinebrook Canal USGS Gage Flow & Stage Cross Bayou USGS Gage Stage Only , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

32 Pinebrook Canal USGS Gage Verification Event (06/21/ /30/2012) ICPR4 R 2 = NSE = USGS , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

33 Pinebrook Canal USGS Gage Rating Curve & 100-Year 24-Hour Simulation ICPR4 Simulation (St. Venant Eq.) USGS Rating Curve (Manning s Eq.) USGS Field Measured Flows , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

34 Cross Bayou USGS Gage Rating Curve & 100-Year 24-Hour Simulation 600 cfs , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

35 < 1 > , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

36 Banned from the Florida Hydrologist s Lexicon Muskingum Routing Kinematic Routing Modified Puls Method Dendritic is on Probation , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

37 Part 3 Opportunities (Florida is Data Rich) , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

38 Extensive infrastructure inventories and models available throughout the state, including hundreds of ICPR models. Orange County ICPR watershed models Completed SWFWMD floodplain mapping (mostly with ICPR models) , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

39 Key Features 1D/2D Surface Hydraulics Can ICPR be used as a hyper-resolution model and incorporated into the NWM? How do we make this happen? 2D Groundwater Flexible Computational Meshes Single Event and Continuous Simulation Soil Moisture Accounting Distributed Hydrology Multi-Core Processing , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

40 Three Key Modifications 1. Access and use NWM rainfall and climatological data as forcing function for forecasting 2. Serve up results that can become forecast products (elevation and flow data) 3. Port to Linux environment for super-computing power , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

41 #1 NWM Forcing Data Anclote River Watershed 113 square miles , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

42 NEXRAD 2-KM 2 GRID (Source for Rainfall & ET Data: Text Files) nexrad_id.txt , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

43 NWM 1-KM 2 GRID (WRF-Hydro Forcing Engine) (Source for Rainfall & ET Data: IP Address?) nwm_id: IP address , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

44 Intersect NWM Grid with Catchments, Soils, Land Use , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

45 Which steps of the NWM model chain can be accomplished by hyper-resolution model? Source: Maidment , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

46 #2. Serving Results up to NWM: Stages and flows are available at every node and link for every user specified output increment Anclote River , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

47 Current Approach in NWM: Does not account for hysteresis effect 1. Forecast discharge with National Water Model 2. Convert discharge to depth using rating curve 3. Convert depth to inundation using HAND Source: Maidment , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

48 Elevation Data Send this data to HAND??? Anclote River Node N1544 (West) , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

49 Anclote River Flow Data is also Available Node N1544 (West) , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

50 #3. Port ICPR to Linux and Parallelize Collaboration with Dr. Venkatesh Merwade to implement ICPR on HPC facilities at Purdue in Linux environment Target completion date is late Spring or Early Summer , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

51 Cypress Creek Basin (129 sq. mi.) 3 Models Maintained by Separate Organizations Trout Creek Basin (35 sq. mi.) New River Basin (121 sq. mi.) , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

52 Hydraulic Links Used for 2-Way Coupling , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

53 2-Way Coupling Links National Water Model Cypress Creek Local Work Station Trout Creek Local Work Station New River Local Work Station HPC Cypress Creek Computational Node Trout Creek Computational Node New River Computational Node , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

54 Thank you! Let s talk psinghofen@icpr4.com , Streamline Technologies, Inc. Florida s Deranged Hydrology and the National Water Model

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