BAU Cumulative Ocean Uptake [PgC] Year ECS = 3 ± C/2xCO 2

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1 Pge 1 of CCS + 1CCS FAO Dt Gross Energy Emissions Cptured [%] CCS +CCS Scenrios without cron cpture & sequestrtion: Fossil Fuels Food Crop Yield [1 6 kcl h 1 yr 1 ] Independent econometric projection of input-neutrl yield growth Supplementry Figure 1 CCS scle-up nd griculturl yields: () Percentge of gross energy sector cron emissions cptured nd permnently sequestered through CCS technology. In the six scenrios with CCS, emissions mitigtion technology rmps up rpidly from through 4. Susequent growth in cron cpture efficiency slows due to incresing mrginl costs of mitigtion. () Arel scenrio crop yield projections [1 6 kcl h 1 yr 1 ]. All other scenrios show smll divergence from the nominl projection, nd re contined within the oundries of the red shded rnge. Recent historicl estimte, plotted in grey, is clculted from FAOSTAT dt on per cpit consumption, popultion, nd griculturl re. Blck rs indicte the results of n independent econometric nlysis of yield growth due to input-neutrl technologicl dvncements 1. 5 Fossil Fuels 5 Cumultive Lnd Sink Uptke [PgC] CCS +CCS + 1CCS +CCS 5 1 Cumultive Ocen Uptke [PgC] Yer Yer ECS = 3 ± C/xCO Atmospheric Cron Concentrtion [ppm] ECS = 3 ± C/xCO Atmospheric Cron Concentrtion [ppm] Supplementry Figure Cumultive nturl sink flux s function of tmospheric cron: cumultive lnd sink () nd ocenic () cron uptke [PgC] plotted s function of tmospheric cron concentrtion [ppm].

2 Pge of 6 Net Cron Flux in 35 [PgC yr 1 ] Atmosphere Ocen Biomss Humus Cron Flux Response in 35 [%] % 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% Atmosphere (Net) Ocen (Net) Biomss (Gross) Biomss (Net) Humus (Gross) Humus (Net) Lnd Sink (Net) All Sinks (Net) 6-15% 8 1 ECS = 3 ± C / xco Net Anthropogenic Emissions [PgC yr 1 ] (constnt fter 15) ECS = 3 ± C / xco -% -15% -1% -75% -5% -5% 1 PgC/yr +5% +5% +75% +1% +15% Net Anthropogenic Emissions [PgC yr 1 ] (constnt fter 15) Supplementry Figure 3 Cron cycle response to constnt emissions: () stedy-stte nnul net cron uptke (flux) y tmospheric, hydrospheric, iospheric, nd pedospheric sinks in yer 35 of the simultion, ssuming constnt net nthropogenic emissions fter 15 t the vlue specified on the x-xis. () Totl chnge in net nd gross cron fluxes s function of chnge in nnul nthropogenic emissions ECS = 4.5 ± C/xCO Emissions pthwy for non-co gses (exogenous) RCP Temperture Anomly [ ± C] ECS = 3. ECS =.5 ECS = RCP 8.5 RCP 6. RCP 4.5 RCP.6 Temperture Anomly [ ± C] RCP 6. RCP 4.5* RCP.6 *RCP 4.5 is exogenously.5 HdCRUT4 Dt HdCRUT4 Dt ssumed to descrie non-co emissions pthwys for ll FeliX scenrios Supplementry Figure 4 Temperture nomly sensitivity to model prmeters: () sensitivity of T to equilirium climte sensitivity (ECS) in the scenrio. ECS quntifies the wrming response to douling of tmospheric cron concentrtion [ C/ CO ]. The drk shded region indictes.5 ECS 3., nd the light shded region indictes ECS 4.5. Historicl dt from HdCRUT4 re shown in grey t left. () sensitivity of T to lterntive non-co RCPs Flux [PgC yr 1 ] [PgC yr 1 ] [PgC yr 1 ] Fossil Fuel Emissions Υ F F 5.5 ± ± ±.7 LULUCF Emissions Υ LUC 1.4 ±.8 ±.8.9 ±.8 Renewle Energy Emissions Υ RE Ocen Uptke Ω O. ±.7. ±.7.4 ±.7 Residul Lnd Sink Ω LS ± ± 1..5 ± 1.3 Atmospheric Increse Ω Atm 3.4 ±. 3.1 ±. 4.3 ±. Supplementry Tle 1 Error nlysis on present vlue of R AF. All vlues nd errors tken from IPCC WG3 3.

3 Pge 3 of 6 Rtio of Net Anthropogenic Emissions to Net Nturl Sinks (R AF ) Net Positive Atmospheric Flux Net Negtive Atmospheric Flux Net Negtive Anthropogenic Emissions (COP trget) Temperture Anomly [ ± C] (1) Fossil +CCS4 +CCS8 +CCS4 +CCS8 IPCC Dt ECS =.5 ± C/xCO Temperture Anomly [ ± C] ± C.7 ± C.5 ± C.1 ± C. ± C 1.7 ± C ± C 1.1 ± C RCP 8.5 RCP 6. RCP 4.5 RCP.6.5 T [81-1] HdCRUT4 Dt ECS =.5 ± C/xCO Supplementry Figure 5 Primry nlysis results for ECS =.5 C/ CO : () R AF ; () T.

4 Pge 4 of Nominl vlues of C A in : 48 ppm 71 ppm Prmeter Description Shift [ppm] World popultion (low) UNDESA WPP low vrint 4-77 World popultion (high) UNDESA WPP high vrint 4 +8 Initil NPP NPP I 51 PgC yr Lnd sink cron residence time (high) τ(t) τ(t) + 7 yers Lnd sink cron residence time (low) τ(t) τ(t) - 4 yers Energy demnd (low) +.% yr 1 cp 1 (cf. Fig. 1) -8 Energy demnd (high) -.% yr 1 cp 1 (cf. Fig. 1) +3 Equilirium climte sensitivity ECS C/ CO -5-8 Equilirium climte sensitivity ECS.5 C/ CO -1-8 Equilirium climte sensitivity ECS 4.5 C/ CO Plnttion productivity (low) 1 t(dry iomss) h 1 yr 1 +9 Plnttion productivity (high) t(dry iomss) h 1 yr 1-13 Forest C sequestrtion (low) C F or. 8.5 tc h Forest C sequestrtion (high) C F or tc h Non-CO emissions pthwy RCP.6-4 Non-CO emissions pthwy RCP Bioenergy emissions (low) EM BE tc t(dry iomss) 1-1 Bioenergy emissions (high) EM BE 98 tc t(dry iomss) 1 +1 Agriculturl residues (low) Collected from % of rle lnd +4 Agriculturl residues (high) Collected from % of rle lnd -5 Agriculturl yields (low) -.14% yr 1 (cf. Supp. Fig. 1) +3 Agriculturl yields (high) +.14% yr 1 (cf. Supp. Fig. 1) - Food demnd niml (low) GDP cp 1 effects - 1% -3 Food demnd niml (high) GDP cp 1 effects + 1% +3 Food demnd vegetl (low) GDP cp 1 effects - 1% - Food demnd vegetl (high) GDP cp 1 effects + 1% + Supplementry Tle Error nlysis on tmospheric cron concentrtions (C A ) [ppm] in the scenrio. Atmospheric Cron Flux [PgC yr 1 ] Sources Sinks Fossil Fuels LULUC Renewles Ocen Lnd Scenrio Yer (Averge) Υ F F Υ LUC Υ RE Ω O Ω LS R AF IPCC Dt 5 (-11) +8.3 ± ± ± ± ±. FeliX Model (-11) ±. Fossil Fuels ± ± ±.5 +CCS ±.6 +CCS ± ±.6 +CCS ±.9 +CCS ± Supplementry Tle 3 Mgnitude of cron sources nd sinks for ll scenrios in yer 1 of the FeliX model. R AF nd the ssocited errors re clculted from Eqs. 8 nd 1, respectively. In extreme low emissions scenrios, errors on R AF grow due to vnishing denomintors.

5 Pge 5 of Popultion (Index: 1=1) WPP High Vr. WPP Med. Vr WPP Low Vr Historicl dt source: FAO Fossil Fuels +CCS.5 + 1CCS + 1CCS +CCS GPD per Cpit (Index: 1=1) Historicl dt source: (Mddison, 6) Energy Intensity of GDP (Index: 1=1).5 Historicl dt source: IEA & (Mddison, 6) Cron Intensity of Energy (Index: 1=1) Historicl dt.8 source: CDIAC & IEA.6.4. Cron net-negtive energy sector Supplementry Figure 6 Scenrio results decomposed into Ky fctors: indexed to historicl dt from 1. Clockwise from top left: popultion, show with UNDESA high, medium, nd low popultion vrints 4 ; GDP per cpit, shown with projection sed on historicl rte of increse; cron intensity of energy; nd energy intensity of GDP, shown with projection sed on historicl rte of decrese 6. Where ville, recent historicl vlues re clculted from the relevnt dtsets nd shown in grey.

6 Supplementry References 1. Herrero, M., Hvlik, P., McIntire, J., Plzzo, A., Vlin, H.: Africn livestock futures: Relizing the potentil of livestock for food security, poverty reduction nd the environment in su-shrn fric. Technicl report, Office of the Specil Representtive of the UN Secretry Generl for Food Security nd Nutrition nd the United Ntions System Influenz Coordintion (UNSIC) (14). Morice, C.P., Kennedy, J.J., Ryner, N.A., Jones, P.D.: Quntifying uncertinties in glol nd regionl temperture chnge using n ensemle of oservtionl estimtes: The HdCRUT4 dt set. Journl of Geophysicl Reserch: Atmospheres 117(D8) (1) 3. Ciis, P., Sine, C., Bl, G., Bopp, L., Brovkin, V., Cndell, J., Chhr, A., DeFries, R., Gllowy, J., Heimnn, M., et l.: Cron nd other iogeochemicl cycles. In: Climte Chnge 13: The Physicl Science Bsis. Contriution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmentl Pnel on Climte Chnge, pp Cmridge University Press, Cmridge (14) 4. Gerlnd, P., et l.: World popultion stiliztion unlikely this century. Science 346(66), (14) 5. Moss, R.H., et l: The next genertion of scenrios for climte chnge reserch nd ssessment. Nture 463, (1) 6. Clrke, L., Jing, K., Akimoto, K., Biker, M., Blnford, G., Fisher-Vnden, K., Edenhofer, O., Pichs-Mdrug, Y., Sokon, E., Frhni, S.: Assessing Trnsformtion Pthwys. In: Climte Chnge 14: Mitigtion of Climte Chnge. Contriution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmentl Pnel on Climte Chnge. Cmridge University Press, Cmridge (14) Pge 6 of 6

Recent studies have identified a near-linear relationship between

Recent studies have identified a near-linear relationship between PUBLISHED ONLINE: 21 SEPTEMBER 214 DOI: 1.138/NGEO2248 Persistent growth of CO 2 emissions nd implictions for reching climte trgets P. Friedlingstein 1 *, R. M. Andrew 2, J. Rogelj 3,4, G. P. Peters 2,