Comparing the main indicators for population, GDP, energy, CO2 and electricity of Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa

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1 Renewables International - Comparing the main indicators for population, GDP, energy, CO2 and electricity of Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa Bernard CHABOT Sustainable Energy Expert and Trainer, BCCONSULT, 1

2 Scope, Main Findings and Conclusions After the previous analysis related to different CO2 emitting countries (China, USA, EU-28, Japan, India; Germany, UK, France; Australia, Canada, Russia, Saudi Arabia) and three Nordic countries (Denmark, Sweden, Norway), this document presents a comparison of the parameters and indicators related to population, economy, energy and CO2 emissions of four selected countries that are within the 20 more CO2 emitting countries and with growing population and economy: Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa. Together they represent 8,7 % of world population and 5,3 % of the 2013 CO2 emissions. With the other countries already analysed, the total represents 79 % of 2013 CO2 emissions. The 4 countries enjoy a large potential for modern and affordable renewables, but they differ in their present results for tapping it: Brazil is ahead with a large historic development of hydropower and biofuels (35.4 % of primary energy consumption (PEC), of which 30.7 % from hydropower) and recently of wind power. Share of PEC from renewables is 4.6 % in Mexico (of which 3.3 % from hydropower), 3.9 % in Indonesia (of which 2.5 % from hydropower), and only 0.3 % in South Africa (of which 0.2 % from hydropower). After decades of development, nuclear covers only 1.2 % of PEC in Brazil, 1.4 % in Mexico and 1.4 % in South Africa and is not used in Indonesia. There are large differences in absolute and relative carbon emissions parameters and ratios, particularly in the power sector which is too much relying on fossil fuels, except in Brazil, with its large share of hydropower and emerging wind power production. Measures to increase the future share of renewables for power production in those 4 countries are key for their efficient future climate policies. Two of those countries are member of the BRICS group (Brazil and South Africa, along with China and India), Mexico and Indonesia are representative respectively of OECD and non-oecd countries with strong economic and population growth, and so it will be important to analyse their 4 INDCs (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, to be published before the COP21 in December) and how they will contribute by their policies and measures to the expected Paris agreement to limit the global warming to less than 2 C in the century. 2

3 Content References: 4 Back to basics: the Kaya identity and its ten indicators: 5-6 Population, primary energy and CO2 emissions 7-26 Comparisons of GDPppp, primary energy, CO2 emissions Focus on electricity Relative changes in energy, economy and carbon indicators

4 References 2013 CO2 emissions: BP Statistical Review 2014 ( CO2 and other detailed data: IEA ( «CO2 Emissions From Fuel Combustion ». Refer to preceding analysis and conclusions on CO2 emissions from energy and electricity: Comparing the main indicators for population, GDP, energy, CO2 and electricity of Australia, Canada, Russia, Saudi Arabia, on line March2015, and downloadable as PDF at: Analysis of ten population, energy, economy and CO2 emissions parameters and indicators of the twenty larger CO2 emitting countries in 2012, on line February 17, 2015, and downloadable as PDF at: Towards 100 % renewable electricity and then 100 % of renewable energy: who will lead among Denmark, Germany, Norway and Sweden?, on line January 28, 2015, and downloadable as PDF at: «Comparing the main indicators for population, GDP, energy, CO2 and electricity of China, USA, European Union and India, on line December 17, 2014, and downloadable as PDF at: Methodology and Case Study for Long Term Energy and CO2 Emissions Scenarios Based on the Kaya Identity, on line November 17, 2014, PDF downloadable at: Analysis of Present CO2 Emissions, Primary Energy Consumption and GDPs of a Proposed Representative G30 Group of Countries, on line August 2, 2014, PDF downloadable at: «Comparisons of CO2 emissions per capita on with a focus on years 1990, 2000 and 2010, on line July , PDF downloadable at: Analysis of unsustainable inequalities of CO2 emissions from countries and per capita, on line July 16, PDF downloadable at: The three Elephants in the Room : Coal, Oil and Gas in the Primary Energy Consumption (PEC) and their CO2 Emissions up to 2013, on line on July 9, 2014 and downloadable as PDF at: 4

5 A precious tool for economic, energy and CO2 emissions analysis: the Kaya identity 5

6 CO2/capita The Kaya Identity: CO2 = (CO2/TPES) * (TPES/GDP) * (GDP/POP)*POP CO2 CO2 emissions ktco2/year POP Population Thousand TPES Total Prim. En. Supply Mtoe GDP Gross Dom. Product b$2005ppp Energy Intensity EI = TPES/GDP kgoe/$2005ppp Carbon Content CC = CO2/TPES tco2/toe Carbon Intensity CI = CO2/GDP kgco2/$2005ppp CO2 per capita CO2/POP tco2/capita GDP per capita GDP/POP $2005ppp/capita TPES per Capita TPES/POP toe/capita CO2 7 6 POP 1 2 TPES EI = Energy Intensity = TPES/GDP GDP Bernard CHABOT - BCCONSULT 6

7 . Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa: population, primary energy consumption and CO2 emissions from fossil fuels 7

8 Ranking of 2013 CO2 emissions for the 20 more emitting countries Source of data: BP Statistical Review, 2014 Rank Country MtCO % World Cum. % 1 China 9 524,3 27,1% 27,1% 2 USA 5 931,4 16,9% 44,0% 3 EU ,7 11,2% 55,2% 4 India 1 931,1 5,5% 60,7% 5 Russia 1 714,2 4,9% 65,6% 6 Japan 1 397,4 4,0% 69,6% 7 Korea Republic 768,1 2,2% 71,8% 8 Saudi Arabia 632,0 1,8% 73,6% 9 Iran 630,6 1,8% 75,3% 10 Canada 616,7 1,8% 77,1% 11 Brazil 541,1 1,5% 78,6% 12 Indonesia 523,3 1,5% 80,1% 13 Mexico 499,4 1,4% 81,6% 14 South Africa 441,1 1,3% 82,8% 15 Australia 360,1 1,0% 83,8% 16 Taïwan 330,0 0,9% 84,8% 17 Turkey 328,8 0,9% 85,7% 18 Thailand 328,4 0,9% 86,7% 19 Ukraine 301,1 0,9% 87,5% 20 UAE 253,7 0,7% 88,2% ROW 4 127,6 11,8% 100,0% WORLD ,0% 8

9 The four countries represent 8,7 % of the world population in 2012 and 5,3 % of world CO2 emissions Data form IEA CO2 (Mt) % World Pop (k) % World Mexico ,4% ,7% Brazil ,4% ,8% Indonesia ,4% ,5% South Africa ,2% ,7% Other Non-OECD ,6% ,7% Bunkers ,4% Rest OECD ,7% ,6% WORLD % ,3% 9

10 With a total of 615 million people, the 4 countries represent 8,7 % of the 7.04 billion people in

11 Brazil: primary energy supply in 2013: large contribution of hydro Source of data: BP Statistical Review,

12 12

13 13

14 14

15 Indonesia: primary energy supplies in 2013 Source of data: BP Statistical Review,

16 16

17 17

18 18

19 Mexico: primary energy supplies in 2013 Source of data: BP Statistical Review,

20 20

21 21

22 22

23 South Africa: primary energy supplies in 2013 Source of data: BP Statistical Review,

24 24

25 25

26 26

27 Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa: comparisons of GDPppp, energy and CO2 emissions parameters and indicators 27

28 Economic growth is strong in the four countries. 28

29 Growth of GDPppp per capita is also strong in the 4 countries since

30 Growth of the total primary energy supplies (TPES) is also strong in the 4 countries. 30

31 Except in South Africa, primary energy consumption per capita is lower than the world average and is increasing in line with the world average. 31

32 Except in South Africa, primary energy intensity is better than the world average and is decreasing in line with the world average, except in Brazil. 32

33 The four countries are within the 15 larger CO2 emissions countries, with large annual increases. 33

34 As for the world average, recent CO2 emissions per people are increasing, even in South Africa where the ratio is 60 higher than the world average. 34

35 There is no decrease in the carbon content of primary energy. Due to its large share of hydropower, the ratio in Brazil is only 66 % of the world average. 35

36 . Creating a $ of GDPppp requires 2.2 more primary energy in the world than in Brazil and 3.9 times more in South Africa than in Brazil. There was not a sensible decrease in the four countries since 1970 compared to the world average 36

37 Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa: Focus on electricity 37

38 As other developing and emerging countries, the 4 countries are still in an electrifying phase of their population and their economies, leading to an increase of electricity demand. 38

39 Electricity production per capita is still lower than the world average, except in South Africa, but in this country, demand for industry is higher than for households. 39

40 Creating a $2005ppp of GDP requires 67 % more of electricity in South Africa than the world average, compared to 2.7 time less in Indonesia. 40

41 Except in Brazil with its high share of hydropower, CO2 emissions for electricity production are very large in the 3 other countries that rely more on fossil fuels. 41

42 The range of CO2 emissions per capita from power production is very large: 6.3 times less in Brazil compared to the world average, 2.6 times more in South Africa. 42

43 Due mainly to the too large use of coal in South Africa and in Indonesia, their CO2 contents of electricity are increasing and are very high at more than 0.8 kgco2/kwh. Value is very low in Brazil due to its large share of hydropower and now more and more wind power.. 43

44 . The range of carbon intensity of the GDP from power production is very large between countries relying mainly either on coal or on renewables for electricity production: near twenty times higher in South Africa than in Brazil 44

45 Relative changes in energy and carbon parameters and indicators 45

46 . Brazil: changes of indicators Average yearly changes of strategic indicators (%/year) Brazil Population 1,59% 1,51% 1,30% 0,93% GDPppp per people 1,46% 0,49% 1,47% 2,73% Energy Intensity (EI) -0,24% 1,04% 0,03% 0,22% Carbon Content (CC) 1,28% 2,06% -1,54% 0,60% CO2 from Fossil Fuels 4,13% 5,20% 1,23% 4,54% CO2 per people 2,51% 3,64% -0,07% 3,57% TPES 2,82% 3,08% 2,81% 3,91% TPES per people 1,21% 1,54% 1,49% 2,95% GDP M$2005ppp 3,07% 2,01% 2,78% 3,69% Carbon Intensity 1,03% 3,13% -1,51% 0,82% kwh electricity per capita 2,72% 3,27% 1,61% 3,64% Electricity production 4,34% 4,83% 2,93% 4,61% CO2 Content of electricity 0,06% 9,78% -0,91% 2,18% CO2 from electricity prod. 4,40% 15,09% 1,99% 6,89% Electricity Intensity of GDP 1,24% 2,76% 0,14% 0,89% CO2elec Intensity of GDP 1,29% 12,82% -0,77% 3,09% 46

47 . Indonesia: changes of indicators Average yearly changes of strategic indicators (%/year) Indonesia Population 1,68% 1,48% 1,45% 1,37% GDPppp per people 6,09% -0,77% 3,24% 4,49% Energy Intensity (EI) -1,90% 2,82% -1,72% -3,23% Carbon Content (CC) 2,05% 1,36% 1,27% 1,26% CO2 from Fossil Fuels 7,98% 4,94% 4,23% 3,79% CO2 per people 6,20% 3,41% 2,75% 2,39% TPES 5,81% 3,54% 2,93% 2,49% TPES per people 4,07% 2,02% 1,46% 1,11% GDP M$2005ppp 7,87% 0,70% 4,73% 5,92% Carbon Intensity 0,10% 4,21% -0,47% -2,01% kwh electricity per capita 10,77% 7,93% 4,90% 4,91% Electricity production 12,62% 9,53% 6,42% 6,34% CO2 Content of electricity -2,69% 2,01% 1,82% 1,76% CO2 from electricity prod. 9,59% 11,73% 8,36% 8,21% Electricity Intensity of GDP 4,41% 8,77% 1,61% 0,40% CO2elec Intensity of GDP 1,60% 10,96% 3,47% 2,17% 47

48 . Mexico: changes of indicators Average yearly changes of strategic indicators (%/year) Mexico Population 1,65% 1,32% 1,21% 1,27% GDPppp per people -0,12% 4,08% 0,65% 1,21% Energy Intensity (EI) -0,34% -3,09% 1,21% -0,88% Carbon Content (CC) 1,09% 1,10% -1,08% 0,16% CO2 from Fossil Fuels 2,28% 3,32% 1,99% 1,76% CO2 per people 0,62% 1,97% 0,77% 0,48% TPES 1,18% 2,19% 3,10% 1,59% TPES per people -0,46% 0,86% 1,87% 0,32% GDP M$2005ppp 1,53% 5,45% 1,87% 2,49% Carbon Intensity 0,74% -2,03% 0,12% -0,72% kwh electricity per capita 3,90% 4,66% 2,37% 1,42% Electricity production 5,62% 6,05% 3,61% 2,70% CO2 Content of electricity -0,40% 0,76% -1,86% -1,66% CO2 from electricity prod. 5,20% 6,85% 1,69% 1,00% Electricity Intensity of GDP 4,03% 0,56% 1,71% 0,21% CO2elec Intensity of GDP 3,62% 1,33% -0,18% -1,46% 48

49 . South Africa: changes of indicators Average yearly changes of strategic indicators (%/year) South Africa Population 2,13% 2,38% 1,60% 1,34% GDPppp per people -1,25% 0,40% 2,19% 1,81% Energy Intensity (EI) 1,76% -1,67% -0,54% -1,86% Carbon Content (CC) -1,02% 0,51% -1,14% 0,65% CO2 from Fossil Fuels 1,59% 1,59% 2,09% 1,91% CO2 per people -0,53% -0,77% 0,48% 0,57% TPES 2,63% 1,07% 3,27% 1,25% TPES per people 0,49% -1,27% 1,64% -0,08% GDP M$2005ppp 0,86% 2,79% 3,83% 3,17% Carbon Intensity 0,72% -1,16% -1,68% -1,22% kwh electricity per capita 0,17% -0,06% 1,47% -0,57% Electricity production 2,31% 2,31% 3,10% 0,75% CO2 Content of electricity 0,81% 0,21% -0,95% 1,02% CO2 from electricity prod. 3,14% 2,53% 2,12% 1,78% Electricity Intensity of GDP 1,43% -0,46% -0,71% -2,34% CO2elec Intensity of GDP 2,26% -0,25% -1,65% -1,35% 49

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