EVALUATION OF ArcSWAT MODEL FOR STREAMFLOW SIMULATION

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1 EVALUATION OF ArcSWAT MODEL FOR STREAMFLOW SIMULATION 212 International SWAT Conference By Arbind K. Verma 1 and Madan K.Jha 2 1. Assistant Professor, SASRD, Nagaland University, Ngaland (India) 2. Professor, AGFE Department, IIT Kharagpur (India)

2 Introduction 2

3 Introduction (Contd.) Present and future per capita water availability in India Water Availability m 3 /person/year Country s Status >2 Adequate Population 128 million 164 million 1-2 Waterstressed <5 Water Scarce Source: Bouwer (2) Per capita water availability 182 m 3 /year 114 m 3 /year Source: Gupta and Deshpande (24) 3

4 Introduction (Contd.) 4

5 Introduction (Contd.) Watershed Hydrologic Models SWAT GWLF WAM HSPF WEPP ANSWER MIKE SHE AGNPS HEC-HMS 5

6 Objectives Calibration and validation of ArcSWAT watershed model for the simulation of streamflow. Performance evaluation of the model for simulation of streamflow. 6

7 22 11'51.65"N 7

8 METHODOLOGY Pre Processing of Hydro-meteorological Data, Preparation of model specific weather input files (Daily Rainfall and streamflow data of 8 years ) Preparation of Spatial Data for the Study Area: DEM, Land use/land cover map and Soil map 8

9 Land use/land cover map Soil map 9

10 Contour Map 1

11 DEM Sub watersheds and Stream reaches No. of Sub watersheds =15 No. of HRUs =271 11

12 METHODOLOGY (contd.) Calibration and validation of ArcSWAT model for the simulation of stream flow ArcSWAT model set up Sensitivity analysis for 18 streamflow parameters (LH-OAT Sampling techniques), Calibration (SCEA-UA method) and Validation Performance evaluation of model for simulation of streamflow at daily and monthly time steps using statistical and graphical indicators 12

13 Model Performance Statistics Moriasi et al. (27) Statistical Indicators RSR Mathematical Expression RMSE PBIAS NSE STDEV obs n i = 1 NSE = 1 ( Q Q ) ( 1) o n i = 1 s i ( ) n i= 1 n i= 1 Q o i ( Q Q ) Q o s i o Q o i 13

14 Performance Ratings of a Model for Monthly Time Step Performance Rating Very good Good Satisfactory Unsatisfactory RSR. < RSR <.5.5 < RSR <.6.6 < RSR <.7 NSE.75 < NSE < < NSE <.75.5 < NSE <.65 Streamflow PBIAS (%) Sediment PBIAS < ±1 PBIAS < ±15 ±1 < PBIAS < ±15 ±15 < PBIAS < ±25 ±15 < PBIAS < ±3 ±3 < PBIAS < ±55 RSR >.7 NSE <.5 PBIAS > ±25 PBIAS > ±55 Moriasi et al. (27) 14

15 RESULTS Streamflow Simulation 15

16 Sensitivity Analysis Results for ArcSWAT Streamflow Parameters Sl.No. Parameters Unit Mean Sensitivity Index Assigned Rank 1 Baseflow alpha factor (Alpha_Bf) days Manning coefficient for channel (CH_N) Surface runoff lag coefficient (Surlag) SCS curve number for moisture condition II (Cn2) Effective hydraulic conductivity in main channel (Ch_K2) Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer required for return flow to occur (Gwqmn) mm/hr mm Soil evaporation compensation factor (Esco) Groundwater delay (Gw_Delay) (days)

17 Sensitivity Analysis Results (contd.) Sl.No. Parameters Unit Mean Sensitivity Index Assigned Rank 9 Soil conductivity (Sol_K) mm/h Available water capacity of the soil layer (Sol_Awc) mm/m m Soil depth (Sol_Z) Groundwater revap coefficient (Gw_Revap) Plant evaporation compensation factor (Epco) Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer for revap to occur (Revapmin) (mm) Maximum canopy index (Canmx) Soil albedo (Sol_Alb) Leaf area index for crop (Blai)

18 Initial and Calibrated Parameter Values for Streamflow Simulation Parameter Lower boundary Upper boundary Initial Value Calibrated Parameter value Alpha_Bf Canmx Ch_K Ch_N Cn2* Soil /LULC data Epco Esco Gw_Delay Gw_Revap Gwqmn Rchrg_Dp Revapmin Sol_Awc* Soil data Sol_K* Soil data Sol_Z* Soil data Surlag

19 ArcSWAT Model Performance Statistics for Simulation of Daily Streamflow Statistical Indicators Calibration Period ( ) Daily Streamflow Validation Period (24-25) Observed Simulated Observed Simulated Mean(m 3 /s) STDEV(m 3 /s) ME (m 3 /s) MAE (m 3 /s) RMSE (m 3 /s) PBIAS RSR NSE R

20 ArcSWAT Model Performance Statistics for Simulation of Monthly Streamflow Statistical Indicators Calibration Period ( ) Monthly Streamflow Validation Period (24-25) Observed Simulated Observed Simulated Mean(mm) STDEV(mm) ME (mm) MAE (mm) RMSE (mm) PBIAS RSR NSE R

21 Observed and SWAT Simulated Daily and Cumulative Streamflow Hydrographs Streamflow (m 3 /s) Observed (daily) Simulated (daily) Observed (cumulative) Simulated (cumulative) (a) Calibration Cumulative Streamflow (MCM) Total Streamflow (MCM) Obs.= Sim.= Streamflow (m 3 /s) /1/1999 1/1/2 1/1/21 Observed (daily) Simulated (daily) Observed (cumulative) Simulated (cumulative) Date (b) Validation 1/1/22 1/1/ Cumulative Streamflow (MCM) Total Streamflow (MCM) Obs.= Sim.= /1/24 4/1/24 7/1/24 1/1/24 1/1/25 Date 4/1/25 7/1/25 1/1/25 21

22 Comparison of Observed and SWAT Simulated Daily Streamflows Hydrographs for Calibration Years Streamflow (m 3 /s) Streamflow (m 3 /s) Streamflow (m 3 /s) (a) 1999 Mean Rainfall Observed Simulated 1/1 3/1 5/1 7/1 9/1 11/1 D t (b) 2 Mean Rainfall Observed Simulated 1/1 3/1 5/1 7/1 9/1 11/1 D t (c) 21 Mean Rainfall Observed Simulated 1/1 3/1 5/1 7/1 9/1 11/1 Date Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) 1 Rainfall (mm) Streamflow (m 3 /s) Streamflow (m 3 /s) (d) 22 Mean Rainfall Observed Simulated 1/1 3/1 5/1 7/1 9/1 11/1 D t (e) 23 Mean Rainfall Observed Simulated 1/1 3/1 5/1 7/1 9/1 11/1 Date Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm)

23 Comparison of Observed and SWAT Simulated Daily Streamflows Hydrographs for Validation Years Streamflow (m 3 /s) Streamflow (m 3 /s) (a) 24 Mean Rainfall Observed Simulated 1/1 3/1 5/1 7/1 9/1 11/1 1 Date (b) 25 Mean Rainfall Observed Simulated 1/1 3/1 5/1 7/1 9/1 11/1 Date Rainfall (mm) 1 Rainfall (mm) 23

24 Observed and SWAT Simulated Monthly Streamflow Hydrographs 3 Mean Rainfall Observed Simulated Monthly Streamflow (mm) ` (a) Calibration Jan-99 Monthly Rainfall (mm) Jul-99 Jan- Jul- Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-2 Jul-2 Jan-3 Jul-3 Month 25 Monthly Streamflow (mm) (b)validation Mean Rainfall Observed Simulated Monthly Rainfall (mm) Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Month Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 24

25 Scatter Plots of Observed and Simulated Streamflow Simulated Daily Streamflow (m 3 /s) Simulated Daily Streamflow (m 3 /s) (a)calibration R 2 = R 2 =.85 Daily (b) Validation Data Points 1:1 Line Linear Data Points 1:1 Line Linear Observed Daily Streamflow (m 3 /s) Simulated Monthly Streamflow (mm) Simulated Monthly Streamflow (mm) Monthly (a)calibration R 2 = (b)validation R 2 =.94 Data Points 1:1 Line Linear Data Points 1:1 Line Linear Observed Monthly Streamflow (mm) 25

26 Bar Plots of Observed and Simulated Annual Streamflow Total Streamflow (MCM) Observed Simulated Year 26

27 Conclusion Based on the analysis of the results obtained in this study, the following conclusions could be drawn Alpha_Bf was found to be the most sensitive parameters followed by Ch_N, Surlag, Cn2, Ch_K2, Gwqmn, Esco, Gw_delay, Sol_k, Slope, Sol_Awc, Sol_Z, Gw_revap, Epco, Revapmin, Canmax, Slsubbsn, and Biomix. Values of PBIAS, NSE, and R 2 during model calibration and validation at daily and monthly time steps were found to vary from to 1.76,.84 to.95, and.86 to.96 respectively. 27

28 Conclusion (contd.) Lower values of PBIAS and RSR coupled with higher values of NSE and R 2 indicated that the SWAT model simulated streamflow within accepatable level of accuracy. Diffrerent graphical techniques used to evaluate model performance showed that there is a reasonably good agreement between observed and simulated daily and monthly streamflows as well as observed and simualted annual streamflow volumes for both calibration and validation period of model simulation. Overall, it can be concluded that the ArcSWAT model simulated streamflow satisfactorily. Therefore, ArcSWAT model can be used for future studies on wtershed modeling in the Upper Baitarni river basin. 28

29 THANK YOU 29

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