WWF IPCC WG3 Key Findings
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1 WWF IPCC WG3 Key Findings April 2014 The world should more than triple investments in sustainable, safe lowcarbon energy sources (like renewable energy) as the main measure to mitigate climate change WWF The energy sector is by far the largest emitter of greenhouse gases and, therefore, is the key battleground of change WWF Global emissions of greenhouse gases have risen to unprecedented levels despite a growing number of policies to reduce climate change. Emissions grew more quickly between 2000 and 2010 than in each of the three previous decades IPCC International cooperation is key for achieving mitigation goals Ottmar Edenhofer WG 3 co-chairperson Page 1 of 6
2 Key Findings The following represent some of the key findings and most noteworthy items contained in the AR5 WG3 report. Emissions Climate change is a global problem. Addressing it requires international cooperation together with effective local, national, and regional policies. Emissions grew faster over the past ten years (at 2.2% per year) than over the entire 30 year period of 1970 to 2000 (1.3% per year). The global economic crisis of 2007/2008 temporarily reduced emissions, but it did not change the overall trend. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from fossil fuels have continued to grow by about 3% between 2010 and 2011 and by about 1-2% between 2011 and CO 2 remains the most common greenhouse gas (GHG), representing about 76% of total GHG emissions in Over the past four decades, the total amount of CO 2 in the atmosphere has doubled, from about 900 GtCO 2 for the period to 2,000 GtCO2 for The regional patterns of GHG emissions are shifting in line with changes in the world economy. Increases in pollution are being seen in upper-middle income countries where economic growth and infrastructure development has been high. While total CO 2 emissions from some developing countries now exceed those of developed countries, per-capita emissions are still markedly lower in most developing countries. A small number of countries accounts for a large share of global emissions. In 2010, ten countries accounted for about 70% of the world's CO 2 from fossil fuels and industrial processes. A similarly small number of countries are responsible for most of the CO2 emissions going back to More than 75% of the increase in annual GHG emissions between 2000 and 2010 was from the energy supply (47%) and industry (30%) sectors. During the period of 2000 to 2010, economic and population growth were the main drivers for emissions, and without targeted efforts they are expected to remain key drivers. 2 C A concentration of atmospheric CO 2 - equivalent of more than 530 parts per million (ppm) will more likely than not result in warming of more than 2 C above pre-industrial levels. Page 2 of 6
3 Keeping temperature rise below 2 C by 2100 is definitely still possible, but will require large scale changes in the global energy mix plus deep cuts in emissions soon. Even limiting warming to 1.5 C is not ruled out by the IPCC, the level advocated by many of the most vulnerable nations on Earth. Significant cuts in emissions will be required by both developed and emerging economies, e.g. 50% cuts by 2030 (from 2010 levels) in wealthy countries. In Asia, emissions in 2030 can't be higher than they were in Latin American countrie s will also be required to cut emissions significantly. For below 2 degrees C, by 2050 the share of zero and low carbon energy will need to almost quadruple, while global GHG emissions will have to be reduced by 40-70% (compared to 2010). The stabilisation of GHG concentrations at low levels requires the long-term phase-out of unabated fossil fuel conversion technologies. The concentrations of CO 2 in the atmosphere can only be stabilised if global (net) CO 2 emissions peak and decline toward zero in the long term. Economics A low-carbon economy doesn't have to mean reduced economic growth. Policies such as carbon taxes have helped to decouple carbon emissions from GDP in some countries. The transformation to a low-carbon economy will require new patterns of investment, and will result in the creation of a significant amount of new jobs. Reduction of subsidies to fossil fuels can achieve significant emission cuts at no or low social cost. To keep temperature rise below 2 C by 2100, substantial shifts in annual investment flows between 2010 and 2029 will be required. Specifically, investment in fossil fuels, both power plants and extraction, would need to decline by 30 billion USD per year between 2010 and At the same time, investment in low carbon electricity supply would need to rise by 147 billion USD. Mitigation policy may devalue endowments of fossil fuel exporting countries, with the biggest negative impact on coal exporters. If the world delays mitigation and cannot stop the rise in emissions we currently see before 2030, it will be very difficult to keep warming below 2 C. The report makes clear that emission reduction pledges made by governments at the climate talks in Cancun, for 2020, will not be enough. Keeping temperature rise below 2 C will have many co-benefits in many areas, e.g. energy security, air quality, public health, employment, and innovation objectives. Risks Page 3 of 6
4 Rather than ignoring risk and waiting for total certainty, effective policies will move forward while accounting for risk and uncertainty. Some of the risks are essentially unknown, such as tipping points or thresholds that would trigger runaway climate change. Uncertainty further amplifies the need to plan effectively for the risks we face, both known and unknown. Policies can be improved by taking into account risks and uncertainties in natural, social and technological systems, people s values, and their perceptions and decision processes. Risks and uncertainties can be addressed systematically, even when probabilities and outcomes cannot be specified precisely. Sectors Without taking new action, emissions are projected to grow in all sectors, except for CO 2 emissions in the land-use sector. Infrastructure developments that lock societies into high emissions pathways may be difficult or very costly to change. The energy supply sector is the largest contributor to global GHG emissions, primarily due to an increasing demand for energy services and a growing share of coal in the global fuel mix. Direct emissions from the energy supply sector are projected to double or even triple by 2050 compared to Taking the carbon out of electricity generation is a key component of mitigation, and this will require rapidly reducing coal power generation. Since the last IPCC report, AR4, many renewable energy technologies have substantially advanced, which has increased their share in the global energy mix. The cost of many renewable energy solutions is falling and their use is spreading. The price of so lar PV fell by more than half, global installations increased 25-fold from However, for the continued expansion of renewable energy, more enabling policies will need to be enacted. Without action, transport CO2 emissions are projected to double by 2050, but with strong measures and good policies, energy demand in the transport sector could be reduced 40%. The building sector was responsible for 34% final energy use in 2010, but with energy demand projected to roughly double, emissions could increase % by With the increase in advanced technologies, know-how and good policies, it's possible to stabilise or reduce building sector energy use by Page 4 of 6
5 Recent large improvements in performance and costs make very low energy construction and retrofits economically attractive. Low energy building codes in new buildings, combined with retrofits in existing ones can help achieve reductions of heating/cooling energy use by 50-90%. Industry related emissions are expected to continue to grow as they have over the past decades, with CO 2 emissions projected to increase % by 2050 (compared to 2010). The energy intensity of the sector could be reduced by up to 25% compared to the current level through the wide-scale deployment of best available technologies. A growing share of CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion in developing countries is released in the production of goods and services that are exported and traded across borders. Since the previous IPCC report, AR4, emissions from the AFOLU sector have stabilized, but the share of anthropogenic emissions has decreased. The report also states that the most cost-effective forestry options are reducing deforestation and forest management. Urbanisation is transforming societies and energy use. By 2050, the global urban population is expected to almost double. This is directly relevant to climate changes as urban areas account for roughly 70% of global energy use and global energy-related CO 2 emissions. The next decades are full of opportunity for urban mitigation, as most of the world s urban areas have yet to be constructed. Urban areas are expected to triple between 2000 and Policies In a large number of countries, fuel taxes (although not explicitly designed for mitigation) act as sectoral carbon taxes. In Europe, where the fuel taxes are highest, they have contributed to reductions in carbon emissions from the transport sector of roughly 50%. Reduction of subsidies to fossil fuels can achieve significant emission reductions, but can have a high social cost if not done carefully. Many countries have reformed their tax and budget systems to reduce fuel subsidies, which largely accrue to the wealthy, utilizing lump-sum cash transfers to off-set impacts on the poor. Potential adverse side-effects of mitigation due to higher energy prices, for example, on improving access of the poor to clean, reliable and affordable energy services, can be avoided. Approximately three billion people worldwide do not have access to electricity and/or depend on traditional solid fuels for cooking and heating - with various negative consequences. The costs for achieving nearly universal energy access are between 72 and 95 billion USD per year until The contribution of renewable energy to energy access can be substantial. Page 5 of 6
6 Achieving universal energy access reduces short-lived climate pollutants and methane emissions, and yields only negligibly higher GHG emissions from power generation. ENDS Page 6 of 6
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