Modelling nuclear energy system: Extending the analysis using MESSAGE

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1 Modelling nuclear energy system: Extending the analysis using MESSAGE Presented by G. Fesenko

2 Place of MESSAGE tool in an holistic NES assessment Developing energy strategies and identification of nuclear energy strategies Mass flow and economic analysis Economics, Environment, Infrastructure, Waste management, Proliferation resistance Decision on NES sustainability

3 Nuclear Fuel Cycle

4 Global Nuclear Energy System based on LWR and HWR with once-through nuclear fuel cycle. (Demo_Case_NFC12) The reactors and fuels to be considered are: HWR using natural uranium fuel; LWR using UOX fuel, ALWR using UOXfuel. Conversion U Conversion U Conversion U Enrichment Dep U Enrichment LWR fuel ALWR fuel HWR LWR ALWR HWR LWR SF ALWR SF HWR SF MESSAGE energy chain of NES

5 Demand structure

6 Mass flow MESSAGE outputs for open fuel cycle Natural uranium consumption (file cumnatu) Fresh fuel requirements (file FF) SWU consumption (file SWU) Spent nuclear fuel in storages (file SF)

7 Economic results of MESSAGE modelling for once-through fuel cycle Annual Investments in NPP Annual expenditure on Fuel Cycle and annual expenditure on O&M of NPP LUAC&LUOM (Levelized Unit Amortization Cost and Levelized Unit Operation and Maintenance cost.)

8 Global Nuclear Energy System based on LWR and HWR with partly closed nuclear fuel cycle (Demo_Case_NFC23) Conversion U Enrichment LWR fuel LWR& LWR SF LWR Reprocessing Rep U Conversion U HWR fuel HWR HWR SF Dep U LWR MOXfuel LWR_MOX LWR MOX SF LWR MOX Reprocessing Pu Pu U MA FP HWR using natural uranium fuel; LWR using UOX fuel, LWR using UOX and MOX fuels.

9 Mass flow MESSAGE outputs for partly closed fuel cycle Nuclear electricity generation structure Fresh fuel requirements Natural uranium consumption Reprocessing requirements

10 Economic results of MESSAGE modelling for partly closed fuel cycle Annual Investments in NPP Annual expenditure on Fuel Cycle and annual expenditure on O&M of NPP LUAC&LUOM (Levelized Unit Amortization Cost and Levelized Unit Operation and Maintenance cost.)

11 Global Nuclear Energy System based on thermal and fast reactors with recycling of Pu recovered from LWR and multiple recycling of Pu recovered from FRs (Demo_Case_NFC32) Conversion U Enrichment LWR&ALWR fuel LWR ALWR LWR SF ALWR SF LWR Reprocessing Rep U Conversion U HWR HWR HWR SF Pu Dep U MOX Fuels FR_MOX FR_MOX&blSF FR&bl Reprocessing Pu U MA FP Pu loses bl. Fuel HWR using natural uranium fuel; LWR using UOX fuel, ALWR using UOX fuel. FR using MOX fuels for core and depleted uranium for blankets.

12 Selected MESSAGE outputs for closed fuel cycle with plutonium multi-recycling Nuclear electricity generation structure; Natural uranium consumption; Fresh fuel requirements;enrichment requirements; Reprocessing requirements;spent fuel accumulation. Annual Investments in NPP and FC Annual expenditure on Fuel Cycle and annual expenditure on O&M of NPP

13 MESSAGE materials: Users Guide for Modelling Nuclear Energy Systems with MESSAGE (Draft) Users Guide provides a step-by-step guidance to create mathematical models representing nuclear energy systems to the level of detail as necessary. The User Guide presents three demonstration cases including modelling a nuclear energy system based on thermal and fast reactors with fully closed fuel cycle.

14 GAINS Fuel Cycle Options modelled with MESSAGE BAU, Business as usual : NS based on thermal reactors with once-through nuclear fuel cycle (OT-NFC) without spent fuel reprocessing; FR Introduction in BAU : INS based on thermal and fast reactors with inclusion of plutonium multi-recycling in fast reactors (BR ~1.0, ) with mixed oxide fuels; FR12 Introduction in BAU : INS based on thermal and fast reactors with inclusion of plutonium multi-recycling in fast reactors (BR ~1.2, ) with mixed oxide fuels FRMA Introduction in BAU : INS based on thermal and fast reactors with inclusion of plutonium and MA multi-recycling in fast reactors (BR ~1.2, ) with MOX&MA fuels Th Introduction in BAU : Thorium Fuel Cycle based on Thermal and Fast Reactors with spent fuel reprocessing and Pu/U233 recycling MSR Introduction Fuel continuous feeding and discharge (reprocessed) One half of the fuel in the core, while the second one out of the core Feeding fuel - Np, Am and Cm from LWR, ALWR and FR spent fuel v

15 Analysis of Other NES Issues with MESSAGE Non-geographical group model Co nve rsi on D e p U En ric hm ent pla nt Fa bri cat ion pla nt MO Fa bri X cat io n pla nt F R T R U O X SF Reproc essing Sep aret ed Pu M A, F P Con ver sio n D e p U En ric hm ent pla nt Fab rica tion pla nt T R U O X SF D e p U Dep U MOX FR Reprocessing Separated Pu Con ver sio n En ric hm ent pla nt Fab rica tion pla nt T R U O X SF SF MA, FP Conversion Enrichment TR UOX Conversion Dep U Enrichment FR TR UOX SF NG1 Countries most involved in the development and deployment of the INS and consequently able to incorporate them as soon as commercially available. NG2 Countries having significant experience in the use of NE and most of the necessary infrastructure available, but not so clear readiness to incorporate rapidly the most advanced NES from the moment of its commercial availability NG3 Countries supposed to incorporate nuclear energy in their energy mix, as new comers.

16 Analysis of Other NES Issues: RD&D cost in transition to a INS CNFC-FR FR The transition costs can have significant impact on economic viability of the CNFC-FR system and have to be taken into account in developing market driven strategies of its introduction. Transition to INs will require pre-commercial investments (transition costs) which include RD&D cost, investments in prototype facilities, etc. Realization of an innovation takes a lot of time & requires huge funding Historically, most of the fundamental RD&D for nuclear was carried out by individual countries with direct or indirect funding from their governments In recent years, there are many initiatives for multilateral cooperation on regional and global levels for the development of innovative systems MESSAGE has capability to explore the role of the research, development and demonstration (RD&D) cost component in transition to a commercially viable Innovative Nuclear Systems (INS) based on Closed Nuclear Fuel Cycle with Fast Reactors (CNFC-FR).

17 Global nuclear structure for two groups as optimized by MESSAGE Region 1 Nuclear electricity capacities RD&D US$ 00 billions, New FR capacities unlimited Region 2 Nuclear electricity capacities RD&D US$ 00 billions, New FR capacities unlimited G W e FR ALWR LWR G W e FR ALWR LWR yr yr Due to exhaustion of cheap U of 16 mln t, FR becomes competitive with TR in G1 after 2050 in the high case; after 2065 in low case Having entered electricity market in G1, FR tend to substitute all TR RD&D up to $ 50 billions does not delay the FR introduction under the rate of ~ 50 Gwe/yr but is it likely? What happens when rate of FR commissioning is lower?

18 Rate of FR deployment leaving FR in the optimal expansion plan under different scale of RD&D cost Low limit of New capacities growth G We/yr RD&D, bln $

19 Summary MESSAGE model has capability for simulation and optimization of : Nuclear Energy System based on LWR and HWR with once-through nuclear fuel cycle, Nuclear Energy System based on thermal and fast reactors with Pu multi-recycling scenarios with the introduction of MSR systems, scenarios based on Thorium Nuclear Fuel Cycle, Global and Non-geographical group approach, RD&D cost for introduction of innovative reactor technology It allows to assess: Optimal Schedule for introduction various reactor technologies and fuel cycle options Infrastructure facilities Nuclear material flows and wastes Investments, RD&D and other costs

20 Thank you for your attention

21 Extraction&co nversion nat.u HWR AHWR fuel HWR AHWR HWR SF HWR SF Extraction&co nversion nat U Enrichment LWR UOX ALWR UOX LWR UOX ALWR UOX LWR UOX SF LWR UOX SF LWR Reprocessing LWR MOX LWR_MOX LWR MOX SF LWR MOX Reprocessin g Separeted Pu MA, FP Dep U FR&blanket Fuels FR FR & bl SF FR&bl Reprocessing Extraction Th FRTh&bl Fuels FR_Th FR_Th & bl SF FR_Th&bl Reprocessing Rep U 233 HWR_Th HTR Fuels HWR_Th HTR_Th HWR_Th SF HTR_Th SF HWR_Th&HT R Reprocessing MSR fuel MSR On line Reprocessing MA FP v

22 Brief code information MESSAGE Software Availability Via Responsible officer (below) Responsible officer Manual Training Tutorial/Demo cases Jalal Ahmed Irej Department of Nuclear Energy Planning & Economic Studies Section Telephone: (+431) Manual Within the model software Yes (regular) Distance Learning Package together with Demo Cases Familiarization/ Case creation time Two weeks for training and 3-4 months for a real case study Flexibility for case creation Optimisation capabilities Very High Yes

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