Next generation energy modelling Benefits of applying parallel optimization and high performance computing

Transcription

1 Next generation energy modelling Benefits of applying parallel optimization and high performance computing Frieder Borggrefe System Analysis and Technology Assessment DLR - German Aerospace Center Stuttgart a project by Modelling Smart Grids , Prague

2 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague Agenda 1. Introduction energy system Modelling and constraints 2. The project BEAM-ME 3. Decomposition 4. Model annotation and PIPS-IPM

3 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague It is not all about rocket science in DLR

4 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague DLR Energy System Model REMix Installed capacities and power generation profiles from renewables GHI HVDC lines long-range power exchange and imports Transmission grid based on current European AC grid Scenario analysis with model REMix cost minimised supply in temporal & spatial resolution model Electricity demand Heat demand Flexible operation of CHP with: - heat storages - peak boiler & electric heaters DNI wind speed results: generation & storage strategies Mo Di Mi Do Fr Sa So Electric vehicles (EV) BEV/hybrids: charging strategies, hourly battery capacities of the fleet connected to the grid run-off river. Conventional generation nuclear, coal, gas power plants Storages pumped hydro compressed air hydrogen Demand side management industry & households, increases system efficiency -x FCEV: flexible on-site H 2 generation

5 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague DLR Energy System Model REMix Installed capacities and power generation profiles from renewables GHI DNI wind speed run-off river. HVDC lines long-range power exchange and imports Energy system models: Simulate Conventional generation nuclear, coal, gas power plants Mo Di Mi Do Fr Sa So Storages pumped hydro compressed air hydrogen Transmission grid based on current European AC grid Scenario analysis with model REMix Demand side management industry & households, increases system efficiency Electricity demand cost minimised supply in temporal & spatial resolution Heat demand Flexible operation of policy and technology choices CHP with: - heat storages influence model on future energy demand and supply, and investments - peak boiler & electric heaters -> are mostly used in an exploratory manner Depend on external assumptions/boundary conditions: Development of economic activities, demographic development, or energy prices on world markets. results: generation & storage strategies Electric vehicles (EV) BEV/hybrids: charging strategies, hourly battery capacities of the fleet connected to the grid -x FCEV: flexible on-site H 2 generation

6 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague The Energy System Model REMix Installed capacities and power generation profiles from renewables GHI HVDC lines long-range power exchange and imports Transmission grid based on current European AC grid Scenario analysis with model REMix cost minimised supply in temporal & spatial resolution model Electricity demand Heat demand Flexible operation of CHP with: - heat storages - peak boiler & electric heaters DNI wind speed results: generation & storage strategies Mo Di Mi Do Fr Sa So Electric vehicles (EV) BEV/hybrids: charging strategies, hourly battery capacities of the fleet connected to the grid run-off river. Conventional generation nuclear, coal, gas power plants Storages pumped hydro compressed air hydrogen Demand side management industry & households, increases system efficiency -x FCEV: flexible on-site H 2 generation

7 Requirements for Energy System Models Increase Petten 2014 Modelling comes at a cost: Small number of time steps Or small number of regions Or small number of technologies JRC Times model: Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague

8 Energy Sector Integration 8 Ongoing transformation drastically increases complexity of the energy system

9 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague The Energy System Model REMix

10 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague The Energy System Model REMix

11 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague Agenda 1. Introduction energy system Modelling and constraints 2. The project BEAM-ME 3. Decomposition 4. Model annotation and PIPS-IPM

12 Idea and scope of BEAM-ME Reduction of solution times urgently needed to enable the reflection of energy system complexity in state-of-the-art models Evaluation of different approaches to reduce model solution times Increased Modelling efficiency Higher computing power Implementation of selected approaches into REMix Assessment of the transferability to other models Definition of best-practice strategies Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague

13 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) BEAM-ME: Optimizing performance of ESM Input data Model description Modelling Language & Compiler Algorithm High Performance Computing

14 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) BEAM-ME: Optimizing performance of ESM Input data Model description Modelling Language & Compiler Algorithm High Performance Computing Energy System Modeling Modelling Language Solver Development High Performance Computing

15 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Nodes! Nodes? Nodes!? - Challenge: Common language Nodes Storage Efficient Robust results Nodes Robust results Efficient Nodes Storage Efficient Energy System Modeling Modelling Language Solver Development High Performance Computing

16 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague Agenda 1. Introduction energy system Modelling and constraints 2. The project BEAM-ME 3. Decomposition 4. Model annotation and PIPS-IPM

17 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague Categorization of speed-up approaches Solver parameters Exact methods Solver related Solver Algorithm Meta-Heuristics Software related speed-up approaches Model specific Problem formulation Heuristics Model reduction and clustering Solving multiple, small problems Exact methods

18 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague Benders decomposition in capacity expansion and economic dispatch Benders decomposition for two-stage stochastic optimization Mathematical formulation in LP table Investment -> Master problem: Decide now which capacities should be expanded Dispatch -> Sub problem: Decide later on economic dispatch to satisfy electrical demand with capacities given by master problem 1st Stage: Capacity expansion Installed capacities 2nd Stage: Dispatch Generation variables Linking variables: Installed capacities, connecting the capacity expansion problem and the dispatch problem

19 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague Deterministic vs. Benders Decomposition Deterministic Model Benders Decomposition Master Subproblem 1st Stage: Capacity expansion Installed capacities 2nd Stage: Dispatch Generation variables Size of LP increases with number of scenarios, solved by SIMPLEX / Barrier Out of memory for typical REMix problems with scenario dimension Subproblems can be solved in parallel Memory demand scales with number of parallel solve processes

20 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague 20 Challenges 3: Efficient use of ressources Synchronous Model Asynchronous Model Iteration 1 Iteration 2 t Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3 Iteration 4 t Input data Model description Modelling, Language & Compiler Mathematical Optimization High Performance Computing

21 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague 21 Agenda 1. Introduction energy system Modelling and constraints 2. The project BEAM-ME 3. Decomposition 4. Model annotation and PIPS-IPM

22 Categorization of speed-up approaches Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague Solver parameters Exact methods Solver related Solver Algorithm Meta-Heuristics Software related speed-up approaches Model specific Problem formulation Heuristics Model reduction and clustering Solving multiple, small problems Exact methods

23 Challenges: Scalable Implementation Input data Model description Modelling Language & Compiler Mathematical Optimization High Performance Computing IBM Blue JSC: 28,672 nodes / 458,752 cores Efficient HPC implementation Benchmarking and profiling Distributed storage for large ESMs Apply new concepts for assigning tasks to cores CRAY HLRS: 3,944 nodes / 94,656 cores Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague

24 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague Application of stochastic PIPS solver Decomposition Approach PIPS-Solver (Argonne National Lab) Capacity Constraints Dispatch Investment Capacity Expansion Planning Operation & Maintainance Capacity Limits Capacity Expansion Planning Capacity Constraints Capacity Constraints Dispatch Dispatch Capacity Constraints Capacity Constraints Capacity Constraints Dispatch Dispatch Dispatch Electrical Demand

25 Within BEAM-ME adaptation of PIPS-Solver to PIPS IPM New PIPS-IPM-Solver under development PIPS-Solver Master Capacity Expansion Planning Sub problems Limits: Master Linking Variables Sub-Problem Linking Variables Linking Variables Sub-Problem Sub-Problem Limits Subs Linking Variables Linking Equations New developed PIPS-IPM can be used for non stochastic models PIPS-IPM will also bring benefits to stochastic Modelling Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague

26 Original problem with random matrix structure min/max A c Model annotation = b How to get there? PIPS exploits matrix block structure min c 0 c s1 c sn A = b low A = b b upp T = s1 W = s1 = b s1 b low T s1 W s1 b upp s1 s1 * min/max Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) x * c Permutation reveals block structure A = b' * x' * Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague T = sn W = sn = b sn 26 b low T sn W sn b upp sn sn C = C = C = s1... sn = b C b low C C C C... s1 sn x 0 low x sn low x 0 x sn b C upp x 0 upp x sn upp

27 Original problem with random matrix structure min/max c * A = b x * Model annotation How to get there? PIPS exploits matrix block structure min c 0 c s1 c sn A = b low A = b b upp T = s1 W = s1 = b s1 b low T s1 W s1 b upp s1 s1 Permutation reveals block structure min/max A Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) c = b' * x' * Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague T = sn W = sn = b sn 27 b low T sn W sn b upp sn sn C = C = C = s1... sn = b C b low C C C C... s1 sn x 0 low x sn low x 0 x sn b C upp x 0 upp x sn upp

28 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague GAMS Annotation for PIPS-IPM Matrix of non-zero entries of REMix LP Permuted matrix revealing block structure PIPS-IPM blocks Linking variables Linking equations Annotation can be implemented directly in GAMS Modellers provide knowledge about problem and decompositions

29 Introducing PIPS-IPM Parallel Interior Point Solver Interior Point Method (PIPS-IPM) Petra et al. 2014: Real-Time Stochastic Optimization of Complex Energy Systems on High-Performance Computers Wind feed-in planning in electrical power systems under uncertainty OR 2017: D. Rehfeldt Optimizing large-scale linear energy problems with block diagonal structure by using parallel interior-point methods M. Wetzel et al. (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague

30 Decomposition by region I Linking by region: electricity transports, fuel transports, global constraints (CO 2 ) power flow limitation 4 partial problems including 4 regions t Temporal dimension of transport decisions leads to the largest number of linking variables hourly power flows between regionblocks 30 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague

31 Decomposition by region II 4 partial problems including 4 regions 16 partial problems including 1 region low increase in linking variables and constraints due to sparsely connected regions Target: Find maximum number of regionblocks of similar size which are sparely linked to other regionblocks Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague

32 M. Wetzel et al. (DLR) Getting Energy System Models ready for HPC 07 Sept Decomposition by time 7 partial problems including 24 time steps 56 partial problems including 3 time steps 168 partial problems including 1 time step 1 out of 24 storage constraints linking 3 out of 8 storage constraints linking Every storage constraint linking Target: Find good trade-off between number of time blocks and number of linking constraints

33 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague Evaluation of Annotations Decomposition by time and region can be applied at the same time power flow limitation from spatial decomposition Linking to previous time step from temporal decomposition All previously shown annotation plots describe exactly the same ESM problem Systematic evaluation of promising annotations required

34 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague Current state and challenges Current state of extended PIPS-IPM for BEAM-ME test problems: sequentially 10 times slower than CPLEX (latest version) barrier. can solve problems with few (< 1000) linking constraints and variables faster than CPLEX (multi-threaded) when enough CPU-cores can be used (on several compute nodes). biggest problem solved so far has > 10 million variables and constraints Current challenges: LPs with many (>10000) linking constraints and variables hard to solve due to factorization of large dense matrix in solving process

35 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague Challenges How to cut the model to allow for efficient application of solvers? How can PIPS-IPM use salient features of the problem? Identify options for model tuning that work? algorithmic and implementation improvements, e.g. (parallel, structurepreserving) preprocessing, scaling, adaptation of interior-point algorithm handle dense (symmetric indefinite) matrix more efficiently: try GPUs (e.g., MAGMA, cusolver) for problems with not too many (< 10000) linking constraints and variables try distributed linear algebra (e.g., Elemental, DPLASMA) for bigger problems

36 Frieder Borggrefe (DLR) Modelling Smart Grids 2017, Prague Challenges How to cut the model to allow for efficient application of solvers? How can PIPS-IPM use salient features of the problem? Identify options for model tuning that work? algorithmic and implementation improvements, e.g. (parallel, structurepreserving) preprocessing, scaling, adaptation of interior-point algorithm handle dense (symmetric indefinite) matrix more efficiently: try GPUs (e.g., MAGMA, cusolver) for problems with not too many (< 10000) linking constraints and variables try distributed linear algebra (e.g., Elemental, DPLASMA) for bigger problems Benchmark: PIPS-IPM and PIPS must beat SIMPLEX in the first place

37 Outlook: What can we do with more efficient models? Model new markets and market design Increase sparcial and temporal resolution Answer new questions Improved market analysis Regional potential of specific technologies Address uncertainty with stochastic models Exploring solution space Identifying tipping points between subsities Modelling sectors and sector integration