Full transition into renewable energy in Estonia by 2050 First step: balanced wise energy program

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1 Full transition into renewable energy in Estonia by 2050 First step: balanced wise energy program Ernst&Young 14th Baltic Utilities Seminar 13 May 2011, Tallinn

2 Agenda Estonian electricity market: aging capacities and energy secuirity Social economical analysis. What would be the best energy mix for consumers in the long run? Nelja Energia snapshot 2

3 Estonian electricity market Aging generating capacities and energy security 3

4 Dependence on imports & shortage of capacity Electricity generation split in 2009 Other RES 4% Wind 2% Other 3% Oilshale 91% MW Peak demand and capacities in Estonia New oilshale block 300 MW constructed New 2nd oilshale block 300 MW constructed Wind 1% Other 3% Imports 23% Gas 24% Hydro 49% Hydro 3% Other 3% Gap to be filled 500 MW Wind 1% Hydro 3% Other 6% Gas 19% Nuclear 71% 2010 Gas 39% Imports % Shutdown of old oilshale 1,105 MW Peak load Installed capacity Source of electricity: Estonia local, oilshale, Latvia local hydro, gas, imports, Lithuania gas, imports Gap between production capacities and peak consumption is projected to be around 500 MW by 2023 in Estonia 4

5 Shortage of generating capacities since 2016 Generation capacity balance, 10% reserves, MW Elering forecasts 364 MW of shortage of generating capacities in 2020 Allikas: Elering, Eesti elektrisuesteemi tootmisseadmete piisavuse aruanne 2010 a.

6 Baltics still connected to Russian system Existing connections Planned connections Baltics is connected to the IPS/UPS interconnection with Russia and Belarus, with Estlink (350MW) being the only interconnection with EU 6

7 Peak load and capacity during winter in Finland During peak load consumption Finland can barely provide Estonia with additional supply of electricity 7

8 Not to depend on others energy independence Energy supply independent from other countries Sufficient supply to cover peak consumption Own generation capacities, own fuel resources, own transmission lines Balanced generation mix Renewable energy preferred Long-term development plan 8

9 Energy security... is vital 9

10 Electricity prices on the rise EUR/MWh Electricity prices (10d moving average) Price forecast for Estonia (IEA 2009) Baltpool (LT) Nordpool Estonia Nordpool Finland EUR/MWh International Energy Agency forecasts 93 EUR / MWh in Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 Estonian area of Nordpool opened in April 2010, Baltpool commenced in January 2010 in Lithuania May-11 EUR/MWh Electricity prices for domestic users in 2010* EU27 average 42% lower than EU average Estonia Latvia Lithuania Electricity prices in the Baltics are projected to grow more than two times by 2020 * With taxes 10

11 What would be the best energy mix for consumers in the long run? 11

12 Base load generation alternatives Nuclear Oilshale Wind Gas 12

13 Estonian electricity system 2023 Hours 13

14 Electricity system development 2023 Capacities MWel /0 2023/A 2023/B 2023/C Oilshale New PP Balanced wind 270 CHP Hydro Base load Peak load PP Balance Peak consumption Shortage Emergency reserve Wind energy Different scenarios Alternative v0: investment decisions made so far Two new oilshale blocks x 270 MW 577 MW shortage to cover peak Alternative A Two new oilshale blocks x 270 MW New heat PP 100 MW Pump storage 500 MW - peak Alternative B New heat PP 640 MW Pump storage 500 MW - peak Alternative C Wind & Pump storage PHAJ & gas turbine 270 MW New heat PP 370 MW Peak load PP gas turbine or larger pump storage 14

15 Oilshale: assumptions Subsidy 16,0 EUR/MW installed CO 2 CO 2 price: 30 EUR/t *SEIT estimate Negative external impact to the environment: 5,1 EUR/MWh 15

16 Oilshale resources: potential shortage Capacity of operating mines Plans to process oilshale, mln t 375 mln t Kiviõli Keemiatööstus 1,09 EE heat 0,38 VKG oil 3,9 Divided by 25 years 15 mln t per year 25 mln t per year EE oil 8,50 EE electricity 11,77 Is possible to extract from exsisting mines Oilshale mining annual limit according to national development strategy. Plan to decrease mining to mln t per year 20 mln t per year Annual demand by Eesti Energia, VKG when business plan realized in business plans Eesti Energia Shaleoil th t 8,5 mln t oilshale Electricity 10 TWh 11,8 mln t oilshale VKG Shaleoil 500 th t 3,9 mln t oilshale If agressive business plans of Eesti Energia and VKG are realized, there will be shortage of oilshale 16

17 Oilshale: opportunity cost from shaleoil Production of shaleoil is more profitable than electricity production EUR Production of shaleoil: income & costs from 1 ton of oilshale 22,3 60 6,0 2, , , Sales Costs of production C02 costs Depreciation Net Profit Assumptions Shaleoil price Capex investment (2 x TSK-140M) 592* EUR/t 63,9 EUR m * Shaleoil price 592 EUR/ t equals to brent crude oil price of 158 EUR/t ( a period average of forecasts by Interantional Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2008 and US Energy Information Agency Annual Energy Outlook

18 EUR th / MW installed Nuclear: overnight investment costs NPP Overnight investment costs per MW of the plants under constructuion/ planning Argentina 750 MW PHWR IEA 2005 average estimate Slovakkia 951 MW VVER Finland MW PWR France 1630 MW PWR Brazil MW PWR Bulgaria MW VVER Romania MW Candu Netherlands MW PWR Turkey MW VVER Development stage of the plants Under construction Planning Czech Rep MW PWR Hungary MW PWR Switzerland MW PWR Year the plant is planned to be commissioned Overnight investment costs of the PPs planned to be commissioned in 2023 are around EUR th per MW 18 Source: IEA, internet

19 Overnight capital costs US NPPs 19 Source: Economics of Nuclear and Renewable Electricity, Mark Diesendorf, University of New South Wales

20 Cost overruns in North America and Europe 20 Source: New Power / Issue 21 / October 2010, Pöyry Energy Consulting, Nuclear capital costs

21 Nuclear: assumptions used Estimate of investment costs Estimate of fuel costs Estimate of O&M costs Account for 10% of capital cost during 10 years , , , , EUR th/ MW 0 Overnight cost Investments cost EUR/ MWh EUR/ MWh To get project IRR of 10%, subsidy for MWh produced by a nuclear plant should be 59 EUR/MWh and total compensation for MWh in the range of 120 EUR/ MWh 21

22 Balanced wind Simulation of wind energy, pump storage, and gas turbine generation Pump storage production Wind farms production Gas turbine production Pump storage 270 MW together with 500 MW onshore, 500 MW offshore wind turbines and second-hand gas turbine is more cost efficient alternative to one block of oilshale power plant Gas turbine would work around 400 hours per year, covering times of long-term no wind period Simulation is based on real wind data at Hiiumaa measured in 2009, Siemens 3,6 MW wind turbine power curve applied 22

23 Balanced wind: hydro pump storage technology Hydro pump storage is the most efficient and proven technology to store immitent renewable energy 23 Source: Emerging Energy Research, Energy Storage Forum Europe 2010

24 Balanced wind: assumptions Onshore 500 MW: subsidy 53,7 EUR/ MWh Offshore 500 MW: subsidy 80 EUR/ MWh Subsidized capacity 270 MW Subsidy: 16 EUR/ MW installed Subsiidium installeeritud võimsusele on arvutatud töötundi põhjal. Nüüdisväärtused on arvutatud kasutades 5% diskontomäära. 24

25 Combined cycle gas turbine: assumptions Probable scenario Estimate of investment costs Estimate of fuel/ CO2 costs Estimate of O&M costs LNG terminal ~EUR 200 m CO2 cost Fuel cost 6 6,0 4, EUR th/ MW Overnight costs 2010 Overnight costs ,2 Gas price forecast by US Energy Information Agency: Annual Energy Outlook 2011 CO2 cost per t: EUR 30 Gas price: EUR 400/ 1000m 3 3,0 1,5 0,0 3,8 O&M costs ,62 O&M costs 2023 To get project IRR of 10%, subsidy for MWh produced by a CCGT plant should be 77 EUR/MWh and total compensation for MWh in the range of 130 EUR/ MWh 25

26 Comparison of social economical costs Comparison of subsidy levels for different types of generation Support Nuclear Gas Wind Balanced Wind Oilshale* 59 EUR/ MWh 80 EUR/ MWh 53,7 EUR/ MWh Time of support, years ,7 EUR/ MWh; 16 EUR/ MW for balance 12 for wind, 20 -balance 16 EUR/ MW Present value of support, EUR m Years of operation Power generation during operation, TWh 320,0 86,4 49,9 95,8 86,4 Subsidy NPV EUR/MWh 18,4 24,9 16,8 26,6 5,5 CO 2 costs, EUR per MWh * 10,4 Loss from not producing oil 22,4 External costs 5,4 5,4 Decrease of expenses for roads repair -6,4 Total subsidy&costs NPV EUR/MWh 23,7 24,9 16,8 20,1 43,6 * Already accounted in needed subsisdy calculation Note: capital cost is assumed 5% for wind and oilshale and 8% for nuclear; oilshale net capacity is 90% of gross capacity (e.g. 270 MW vs 300 MW); subsidy for intalled oilshale capacity is calculated based on working hours per year and CO2 price of 30EUR per ton; generation of oilshale PP is calculated assuming working hours per year. There is no cap for subsidy for wind energy per produced MWh

27 Comparison of social economical costs (2) Balanced wind is the cheapest technology to generate base load Comparison of subsidy levels for different types of generation: NPV of costs (EUR/MWh) , ,7 24,9 16,8 20,1 0 Nuclear Gas CCGT Wind Wind Balanced Oilshale* *including socialeconomic costs Note: capital cost is assumed 5% for wind and oilshale and 10% for nuclear; oilshale net capacity is 90% of gross capacity (e.g. 270 MW vs 300 MW); subsidy for intalled oilshale capacity is calculated based on working hours per year and CO2 price of 30EUR per ton; generation of oilshale PP is calculated assuming working hours per year. There is no cap for subsidy for wind energy per produced MWh. 27

28 Conclusion: Electricity system development 2023 Capacities MWel 2023/A 2023/B 2023/C Existing Oilshale Existing CHP New capacities New Oilshale 540 CCGT Nuclear 640 Balanced wind 270 Social economical cost MWh of new capacities 40,7 23,7 22,9 Estonia needs new generating capacities Different scenarios Alternative A Two new oilshale blocks x 270 MW New heat PP 100 MW Alternative B New heat PP 640 MW ready in 2027? Alternative C Wind & Pump storage PHAJ & gas turbine 270 MW New heat PP 370 MW Generation mix of oilshale capacities with new CCGT and balanced wind together with hydro pump storage is the most cost efficient solution to generate base load after 2023 the lowest NPV of subsidies per MWh generated Investment costs per MW installed of nuclear power plants have been growing strongly and will be increase at scale due to security measures 28

29 Nelja Energia snapshot 29

30 Nelja Energia snapshot Company estimated capitalization Investors Investment pipeline in the Baltics In operation as of Jan 1, 2011 Planned in operation by the end of 2012 Current development pipeline Pakri 18,6 MW Viru Nigula 24 MW EUR 200 m Vardar Eurus, EBRD, NEFCO EUR 482 m (onshore) EUR 2,100 m (offshore) 116 MW 285 MW 268 MW MW (offshore) Paldiski Vanaküla Pakri Hiiumaa offshore Tooma Esivere Virtsu II Virtsu I Virtsu III Viru Nigula Kunda Aseri Dundaga Sudenai Esivere 8,0 MW Sudenai 14 MW and Mockiai 14 MW Ciuteliai Mockiai Silute Silale Operational wind farm Wind farm under development

31 Thank you! Full version of the study available at Kalle Kiigske 31

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