Outlook for Gas Markets

Transcription

1 IEEJ IEEJ:Published 2015 年 7 in 月 August 禁無断転載 2015 All rights reserved The 420th Forum on Research Work July 10, 2015 Outlook for Gas Markets The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Tetsuo Morikawa Manager, Gas Group, Fossil Fuels & Electric Power Industry Unit

2 Natural gas demand in major consuming regions IEEJ:Published in August 2015 All rights reserved Monthly demand Year-on-Year Changes OECD Americas OECD Europe Northeast Asia (Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan) Taiwan China South Korea Japan OECD Europe OECD Americas (Sources) IEA; China OGP; Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taiwan Demand in 2014: OECD Americas 930 bcm (up 32 bcm or 4% year on year) OECD Europe 447 bcm (down 52 bcm or 10%) Northeast Asia 360 bcm (up15 bcm or 2%) While demand in Europe increased from early 2015, the sovereign debt risk resurfaced. 1

3 IEEJ:Published in August 2015 All rights reserved Monthly LNG imports in Asia and Europe MT Asia MT Europe Malaysia Singapore Thailand India China Taiwan South Korea Japan Lithuania Netherlands UK Turkey Spain Portugal Italy Greece France Belgium (Sources) Customs statistics in each country, IEA, etc. LNG imports: MT in Asia (up 2.06 MT year on year), MT in Europe (down 1.49 MT) LNG imports in Europe increased since late

4 IEEJ:Published in August 2015 All rights reserved U.S. natural gas production Output and prices Major shale gas play Henry Hub price Bakken Marcellus Shale gas Haynesville Non-shale gas Eagle Ford Jan 2010 May 2010 Sep 2010 Jan 2011 May 2011 Sep 2011 Jan 2012 May 2012 Sep 2012 Jan 2013 May 2013 Sep 2013 Jan 2014 May 2014 Sep 2014 Jan 2015 (Source) EIA Shale gas production has been robust despite price falls as productivity is improving. In January 2015, shale gas output exceeded 50% of total natural gas output for the first time. 3

5 IEEJ:Published in August 2015 All rights reserved LNG export projects in North America Triton LNG (Idemitsu) Pacific Northwest LNG (JAPEX) Aurora LNG (INPEXJGC) LNG Canada (Mitsubishi) Mitsubishi, Chubu Electric, Tokyo Gas, Osaka Gas, JOGMEC Mitsui Sumitomo Mitsubishi Marubeni INPEX, JGC Itochu Freeport LNG Planned to launch operation in 2018 (Liquefaction tolling: Chubu Electric, Osaka Gas, Toshiba) Sumitomo Tokyo Gas INPEX, JGC Cameron LNG Planned to launch operation in 2018 Equity: Mitsui, JLI (NYK, Mitsubishi) Liquefaction tolling: Mitsubishi, Mitsui, GDF Suez Buyers: Tokyo Electric, Toho Gas, Kansai Electric, Tohoku Electric (Source) IEA and company websites JGC Mitsui Marubeni Osaka Gas JAPEX Cove Point LNG Planned to launch operation in 2017 Liquefaction tolling:sumitomo Buyers: Tokyo Gas, Kansai Electric Sumitomo Mitsui LNG export projects in which Japanese firms are involved Shale oil and gas (confirmed) Shale oil and gas Coalbed methane Coalbed methane U.S. 54 projects (350 MT) Four export projects have won approval for exports to non-fta countries and for the construction of natural gas liquefaction facilities, (52 MT/year) Sabine Pass will launch operation in late 2015 or early Canada 35 projects (390 MT) While 10 projects (about 120 MT/year) have won approval for exports, only LNG Canada has received approval for construction. 4

6 IEEJ:Published in August 2015 All rights reserved Russia s shift to Asia Domestic Natural Gas Supply and Exports Confrontation Domestic supply Exports Ukraine turmoil Shift to Asia (Source) JOGMEC Exports in 2014 totaled 193 Bcm, down 12% year on year. (Source) Russian Energy Monthly As supply to Europe is not likely to expand, Russia urgently needs to explore Asian markets. As well as pipeline gas supply to China, the expansion of LNG supply to other Asian countries including Japan is an issue. 5

7 IEEJ:Published in August 2015 All rights reserved Russian gas supply routes to Asia Power of Siberia (38bcm) Altai Pipeline (30bcm) (Source) Gazprom Russia signed a gas sales contract for 38 bcm/year (for Power of Siberia) in May 2014 and a memorandum of understanding for 30 bcm/year (for Altai Pipeline). The oil price plunge has cast a shadow on investment in Eastern Siberian gas fields development and in the Power of Siberia construction. Greater priority might be given to the Altai Pipeline project in which no upstream development is required. 6

8 IEEJ:Published in August 2015 All rights reserved Natural gas supply and demand in China Gas infrastructure development Domestic production and imports 30 Bcm 38 Bcm Domestic output Pipeline gas imports LNG imports (Source) JOGMEC Demand in 2014 totaled 183 Bcm (up 7% year on year). Pipeline gas imports posted remarkable growth (up 15% year on year). (Source) China OGP Lower LNG prices have not impacted on import increase to a significant extent. LNG import terminals operating rates remain low. 7

9 IEEJ:Published in August 2015 All rights reserved Spot and short-term LNG trade MT Spot and Short-term LNG Trade Volume Middle East Latin America North America Europe Other Asian countries China India Taiwan South Korea Japan Share for spot and short-term contracts Share for spot and shortterm contracts Spot LNG Imports/Exports (2014) Other African countries: 30 Exported cargoes Asia & Unknown: 16 Oceania: 35 Other Middle East countries:16 Americas (including reload): 6 Other European countries (including reload): 71 Norway: 26 Qatar: 48 Imported cargoes Trinidad and Tobago: 72 Argentina: 68 Nigeria: 87 Middle East: 3 Unknown: 67 (Source) GIIGNL MT (of which Japan accounted for 37%) traded via spot and short-term contracts in 2014 Japan s spot procurement in 2014 estimated at 87 cargoes (about 5.2 MT accounting for 6% of total LNG imports) Other Asian countries: 39 Other American countries:15 Europe: 13 Taiwan:13 Thailand: 11 Mexico: 7 South Korea: 26 (Source) ICIS Heren Japan: 87 Brazil: 58 8

10 IEEJ:Published in August 2015 All rights reserved LNG supply and demand outlook MT Demand Supply Demand Supply Demand Supply outlook 2016 outlook Japan Asia and Oceania Europe Americas Middle East (Source) IEEJ Africa As new supply sources have launched operation one after another, supply-pushed growth in demand will be increasingly clear. Emerging markets especially in Asia will continue to expand imports. 9

11 IEEJ:Published in August 2015 All rights reserved Natural gas prices Jan 2011 Mar 2011 May 2011 Jul 2011 Sep 2011 Nov 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2012 May 2012 Jul 2012 Sep 2012 Nov 2012 Jan 2013 Mar 2013 May 2013 Jul 2013 Sep 2013 Nov 2013 Jan 2014 Mar 2013 May 2014 Jul 2014 Sep 2014 Nov 2014 Jan 2015 Mar 2015 May 2015 Jul 2015 Sep 2015 Nov 2015 Jan 2016 Mar 2016 May 2016 Jul 2016 Sep 2016 Nov 2016 JCC JLC (IEEJ assumption) NBP futures forward curve JCC (IEEJ assumption) JKM U.S. JLC UK Henry Hub futures forward curve (Sources) Energy Intelligence, EIA, Platts, CME, IEEJ Japan s average LNG import price (JLC) has fallen since early 2015 due to the crude oil price decline. While Asian premium has substantially shrank, the rationality of oil-indexation remains an issue. Japan s average LNG import price in the second half of 2015 and 2016 is projected at $ /MMBtu. 10

12 IEEJ:Published in August 2015 All rights reserved Conclusions Natural gas supply and demand in major markets Demand has been firm in the Americas and Asia. Future demand in Europe is uncertain with sovereign debt risks. U.S. shale gas has remained competitive despite price falls. Demand growth has been decelerating in the Chinese market. The oil price decline is affecting Russian pipeline gas export projects to China. LNG markets Demand growth has decelerated in Asia while turning upward in Europe recently. Market liquidity has been enhanced with growing spot trade. While the Asian premium has shrunk, the rationality of oil-indexation remains an issue. Substantial supply growth will accelerate buyers market situation. Please direct inquiries to: 11