Gas and energy security in the wider Mediterranean region

Transcription

1 Gas and energy security in the wider Mediterranean region Conference Perspectives for Canadian Natural Gas Export to Europe Roma, Embassy of Canada Nicolò Sartori, Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) n.sartori@iai.it

2 Gas balance in the Med

3 Gas Balance in the Med region Definition of the Mediterranean region: Northern Mediterranean countries: (EU) Croatia, Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain + Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia and Serbia MED-11: (NA) Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia + (ME ) Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine and Syria + Turkey Significant heterogeneity, particularly among the MED-11 Key gas consumers/importers Italy, France, Spain, Portugal and Greece (150 Bcm) Turkey (46 Bcm) Key gas producers/exporters Algeria, Egypt and Lybia (139 Bcm)

4 Gas Balance in the Med region TOTAL RESERVES/PRODUCTION Reserves: 8 Tcm, 4.5% of total World reserves Concentrated in MED-11, North Africa Production: 150 Bcm/y MED-11 Algeria R: 4,5 Tcm (2.4%); P: 81.5 Bcm Egypt R: 2 Tcm (1.1%); P: 61 Bcm Libya R: 1.5 Tcm (0.8%); P: 12 Bcm Northern shore Italy R: 0.1 Tcm; P: 7.8 Bcm/y

5 Gas Balance in the Med region CONSUMPTION Northern Med countries Total: 150Bcm/y Italy: 68.7 Bcm France: 42.5 Bcm Spain: 31.4 Bcm Portugal: 4.7 Bcm Greece: 4.2 Bcm MED-11 Total: 150Bcm/y Turkey: 46 Bcm Others: 100 Bcm (Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia, Israel, Lybia, Jordan)

6 Gas Balance in the Med region GAS REGIONAL TRADE Amounts to Bcm/y The majority of the regional gas trade ensured via pipeline, around 50 Bcm (77%) Algeria to Italy and Spain Libya to Italy Algeria to Tunisia Egypt to Jordan, Israel, Syria and Lebanon

7 LNG in the Med INTRA-REGIONAL LNG TRADE (MED COUNTRY TO MED COUNTRY) Algeria key exporter: 14.5 Bcm (2012) France 4.8 Bcm Turkey 4.1 Bcm Spain 3.6 Bcm Italy 1 Bcm Egypt: 2.5 Bcm (2012) France, Spain, Turkey LNG Trade (Bcm/y) 20,

8 LNG in the Med TOTAL LNG TRADE IN THE REGION (IN THE MED) Other LNG suppliers: 30 Bcm (2012) Qatar: 13 Bcm LNG Trade Nigeria: 10 Bcm Norway: 2.5 Trinidad & Tobago: 2.5 Perù:

9 LNG in the Med LNG IMPORT CAPACITY IN THE MED Total capacity: 115 Bcm France: 23 Bcm (3) Spain: 53 Bcm (6) Italy: 15 Bcm (3) Portugal: 8.5 Bcm (1) Greece: 4.5 Bcm (1) Turkey: 11 Bcm (2)

10 New regional energy trends

11 Changing patters in MED-11 Socio-economic changes in the region Population growth +100million people Today ratio MED-11 - northern countries is 55-45%, in 2030 expected 60-40% GDP growth Energy CAGR MED-11 4% to 2030 vs. northern countries 2% Primary energy consumption growth From 335 Mtoe to 660 Mtoe: +100% in the period

12 Changing patters in North Africa Electricity generation Electricity consumption growth From 570 TWh to 1565 TWh: +170% in the period Despite increases in renewables Largely based on fossil fuels North Africa will account to 83% Levant + Turkey: 67% RISK: DECREASES THE EXPORT CAPACITY OF KEY SUPPLIERS?

13 Focus on Turkey Major driver for Mediteranean energy demand growth Tops the list of IEA members for total energy consumption Over the last decade, second country in the world in term of increase in natural gas and electricity demand (after China) Strong dependance from external sources 75 percent of the country s total energy demand Almost 100 percent of gas consumption Key link with Russia (25 Bcm, second non-fsu market after Germany) Strengthening partnership with Azerbaijan (TANAP) Growing dependence on Med gas?

14 East-Med production Resources in place Discovered: 1.5 Tcm Yet-to find: 6.5 Tcm Geopolitical issues Status of Cyprus Disputes Lebanon vs. Israel Export options? LNG plant in Cyprus (Vasilikos) East-Med gas pipeline Via Turkey Silver bullet for European consumption?

15 Way Ahead

16 How to meet Med demand? MAIN CONCERNS FOR EUROPEAN IMPORTERS Risks for North African countries to reduce export capacity Improve energy efficiency and renewables New developments (i.e. shale in Algeria) Geopolitical instability and security concerns Greenstream halted in 2011 and 2013 In Amenas attack

17 How to meet Med demand? GAS IMPORTS WILL RISE DESPITE WEAK DEMAND Further diversify sources of supply Expansion of Southern gas corridor Development East-Med Attract LNG trade LNG Towards a global gas market, expanding Import capacity available Price differential with Asia

18 Thanks for your attention