Strategies for building the nextgeneration

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1 Strategies for building the nextgeneration biofuel supply chain Tom Maze Transportation Seminar Mark Mba Wright Assistant Professor Mechanical Engineering Iowa State University 3/27/15

2 The US Biofuel Context Biofuel Manufacturing Advanced Biofuel Supply Chains Modern Strategies for Biofuel Supply Chain Design 2

3 The success of the U.S. bioindustry depends, to a large degree, on the quantity and quality of biomass available, and on the industry's ability to cost-effectively utilize biomass for energy production. - U.S. Department of Energy Feedstock Production Feedstock Logistics Biofuels Production Biofuels Distribution Biofuels End Use 3

4 US Environmental Emissions 4

5 US Environmental Emissions Energy Independence and Security Act (2007) 5

6 RFS2 Advanced Cellulosic Biofuel Mandate Revisions US RFS2 Challenges US Transportation Trends 6

7 US RFS2 Opportunities Carbon emission mitigation requires lowcarbon fuels Vehicle technologies support drop-in fuels with enhanced standards Energy independence remains a national priority Domestic fuels promote social benefits 7

8 BIOFUEL MANUFACTURING 8

9 Biofuel Manufacturing US grain ethanol production capacity is 14,340 million gallons per year RFA.org 9

10 Advanced Biofuel Manufacturing Conventional biofuel Corn ethanol Advanced biofuels Fermentation to hydrocarbons Biomass-to-Liquids Alternative biofuels Gas-to-Liquids Hybrid Gas-, Biomass-to-Liquids *Introduction of natural gas carbon Department molecules of Mechanical in Engineering the generated fuels 10

11 Advanced Biofuel Manufacturing Yue, Dajun et al

12 Advanced Biofuel Manufacturing Advanced biofuel costs are greater than fossil fuels alternatives. - Biomass is expensive - Limited biomass market supply - Contract structures are still emerging - Delivery networks are scarce or non-existent - Capital costs are high - Biorefineries are small by fossil fuel standards - Biorefineries use customequipment - Financing biorefineries is expensive Anex et al

13 Limited Biomass Market Supply Forrest Thinnings 13

14 Contract Structures are Emerging 14

15 Delivery networks are scarce or non-existent Hettinga et al

16 Advanced Biofuel Manufacturing Capital costs contribute up to ½ of biofuel costs Biomass contributes 1/3 to >1/2 biofuel costs. Wright & Brown

17 Biorefineries are small by fossil fuel standards MMGPY Gasoline Equivalent Wright and Brown (2008) 17

18 Biorefineries use custom equipment Hettinga et al. (2009); Daugaard et al

19 Financing Biorefineries is Expensive Biorefinery enterprises could have the lowest loan rating and highest loan interest rates Brown & Wright

20 Lessons Learned Feedstock conclusions More than 1 billion tons (> 30 billion gallons of biofuel) of biomass are available in the US Reliable biomass supply markets need to be demonstrated Research & demonstration efforts are needed to improve the supply chain Biorefinery conclusions Biorefineries should leverage new scaling curves Biorefineries need to innovate and learn rapidly Biorefineries should demonstrate robust portfolios 20

21 ADVANCED BIOFUEL SUPPLY CHAINS 21

22 Biomass Supply Network Elements Shah

23 Biofuel Supply Cost Uncertainties Shah

24 Biomass Supply Chain Discrete Event Simulation Understand Discrete Events Extreme Weather Market Volatility Infrastructure Changes Incorporate Data-rich Models Detailed Process Models Feedstock Availability Policy Impacts 24

25 Supply Chain Network Design Yue, Dajun et al

26 Supply Chain Network Design Yue, Dajun et al

27 Biofuel Supply Chain Product Selection Zhang and Wright

28 Biofuel Supply Chain Location Optimization Fast pyrolysis facilities can convert biomass into biofuel and bioproducts. - Feedstock - Forest residues - Products - Gasoline & Diesel - Hydrogen - Chemicals Zhang and Wright

29 MODERN STRATEGIES FOR ADVANCED BIOFUEL SUPPLY CHAIN DESIGN 29

30 30

31 Biorefinery Scale Up vs. Scale Down Advanced Manufacturing Traditional Manufacturing 31

32 Impact of Advanced Manufacturing 32

33 Case study: Gasification and Fast Pyrolysis Lower predicted costs than with economies of scale alone Source: Daugaard T., Mutti L., Wright M., Brown R. C., Componation P. Learning Rates and Their Impacts on the Optimal Capacities of Biorefineries (In Press 2014) Biofuels, Bioproducts & Biorefining. 33

34 Distributed Processing Applied to Pyrolysis Fuel Markets Feedstock Production Feedstock Production Feedstock Production Feedstock Production Distributed Pyrolysis Bio-Oil Central Upgrading Bio-Oil Distributed Pyrolysis Feedstock Production Feedstock Production Feedstock Production Feedstock Production 34

35 Transportation Network Management Dong et al

36 Modern Strategies for Advanced Biofuel Supply Chain Design 36

37 Low-cost, sustainable biofuels are a national priority Modern biofuel manufacturing and supply chains require novel designs, technologies, and management strategies A combination of life cycle economic and environmental management, network design, and robust optimization can help meet national biofuel targets 37

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