Future Transportation Activity and Modal Split in a Higher Oil Price Economy. Werner Rothengatter. Universität Karlsruhe (TH)

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1 Future Transportation Activity and Modal Split in a Higher Oil Price Economy 1 Werner Rothengatter Universität Karlsruhe (TH)

2 Future Transportation Activity and Modal Split in a Higher Oil Price Economy 2 1 Transport and economic growth 2 Rapid development in tiger countries 3 Influence of oil prices on transport demand 4 Influence of technology development and of government decisions 5 Conclusions

3 1 Transport and Economic Growth Development in the past 1.2 Causality 1.3 Mobility of passengers and goods 1.4 Forecasts

4 1.1 4

5 1.1 5

6 1.2 Causality: Elasticities 6 High-density regions Low-density regions Endogeneous variable Explaining variables Elasticity p-value Elasticity p-value Level of Education 1 0,24 0,00 0,33 0,00 Centrality 0,10 0,01 0,02 0,21 Transport infrastructure endowment Telecommunication networks Recreation and leisure areas GRP per capita 0,07 0,05 0,06 0,09 µ 0,47 0,00 0,19 0,00 0,08 0,03 0,02 0,30 Total 0,96 0,62 1 Education indicator differs for both regions (see equations 3.9a and 3.9b)

7 1.3 Decreasing Population 7 Changing Age Structure Germany West Germany East Source: Mannheimer Forschungsinstitut Ökonomie und demoskopischer Wandel, 2003 Read: Stochastic Forecast Pink: Deterministic Forecast.

8 1.3 Change of population 8 Modelling the needs of the aging society

9 1.4 Development of Mobility 9

10 1.4 Development of Mobility 10

11 1.4 Forecasts of Motorization 11 Development of Motorization China Other CSAm Brazil Eastern EU Mexico S. Korea Un. Kingdom Italy Australasia United States vehicles per 1000 persons

12 2 Rapid Development in Tiger Countries Focus on China 2.2 Population and economic perspectives 2.3 Motorization 2.4 Transport development 2.5 Transportation Fuels Consumption

13 2.2 Growth of the economy in China 13 GDP in 100 mill. yuan GDP

14 2.3 GDP and Motorization Cars and personal light trucks - SUVs/ 1000 people $1,000 $10,000 $100,000 GDP Capita, 1990 USD (PPP) United States China Korea Japan w. Germany

15 2.4 Transport Development 15

16 2.4 Modal shares in Chinese Cites 16

17 2.5 Development of Fuel Consumtion in China 17

18 2.5 Fuel Consumption Scenarios for China 18 Total Primary Energy, PJ Total Primary Energy, MTOE Road Ahead Year 0 Oil Saved Integrated Transport

19 2.5 Word-wide Energy Consumption and the Role of the Transport Sector 19

20 3 Influence of Oil Prices on Transport Demand Transport demand price-inelastic? 3.2 Multi-dimenional reactions 3.3 Example: Passenger transport demand in Germany 3.4 Example: Fuel price variance in the EU

21 3.3 Development of transport demand 21 in mature economies is less dynamic person-kilometer in Billions until 1990 only former West German states from 1991 including Eastern German states year (author s illustration, sources: MOP, Verkehr in Zahlen 02/03)

22 22 4 Influence of technology development, behaviour change, and of government decisions 4.1 EST project of the OECD 4.2 BAU and EST scenarios 4.3 Main drivers and the relationship to higher oil prices 4.4 Kyoto mechanisms 4.5 IPCC challenge

23 4.1 Operationalising EST: Derived Targets for 2030 H & E objectives Action targets EU by 2010 Noise WHO Guidelines met Air quality (NO 2, PM) WHO Guidelines met Critical ozone levels attained Acidification / Eutrophication Critical Loads met Climate protection Stabilising CO2 concentrations Noise sources -50% to -70% (---) Air emissions: -50% NOx;-99% PM; (- 51% NOx) -90% NOx,VOC (- 54% VOC) SO x,no x emissions -75% to -90%, (- 77% SOx) -50% NH 3 (- 14% NH3) GHG / CO 2 emissions OECD:-80%, global:-50% (- 8% CO 2 ) 23

24 Modal Split for BAU and EST Scenarios Passenger Freight Passenger km BAU EST tonne km BAU EST Aircraft Passenger cars Public transport + non-motorised Waterways Rail freight Heavy trucks Light duty vehicles

25 EST in 2030: Individual Mobility New forms of flexible use and integarted mobility services: e.g. Bremen card, rail link and MobilityCarsharing in Switzerland.

mobility services for short distance travel, new

26 EST in 2030: Public Transport Greater use of soft modes, combined with public transport and new mobility services for short distance travel, new infrastructure developed: e.g. railtram/bus links in Karlsruhe.

27 EST in 2030: Passenger Railways Rail is all electric, with increases in high speed modes, efficiency and capacity, system interconnections are greatly developed (e.g. rail-air link).

28 EST in 2030: Freight and Combined Transport Hydrogen used directly and in fuel cells for freight vehicles. Improved logistics, and longer-distance freight travel replaced by rail.

29 EST in 2030: Aviation Aircraft are much more fuelefficient, conventional types. ICT largely used instead of long-distance business travel. Short-distance air travel is greatly replaced by rail.

30 4.3 Transport Activity in 2030 Percentage more environmentally friendly mode less environmentally friendly mode BAU 2030 EST %

31 4.4 Evaluation of Measures to Reach the Targets Demand Management 59% Occupancy Mode shifts 7% 15% Technology 41% Demand Management 54% Mode shifts 24% Loadfactor 11% 31 Technology 46% Transport avoidance 26% 11% Downsizing Transport avoidance 19% 0% PASSENGER FREIGHT

32 5 Conclusions Heterogeneity of transport development 5.2 Main drive in tiger economies 5.3 Industrialization in fast motion with growing awareness of risks 5.4 Oil prices have not reached the threshold to change consumer s behaviour substantially 5.5 Energy saving strategies will yield higher effects in the next years compared with radical technological innovations

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