National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Chattahooche-Flint River Basin. 14 August 2012

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1 National Integrated Drought Information System Southeast US Pilot for Apalachicola- Chattahooche-Flint River Basin 14 August 2012

2 Outline Welcome Keith Ingram, UF, Southeast Climate Consortium Current drought status and how we got here David Zierden, FSU, Florida Climate Center Recent rains Victor Murphy, NOAA Streamflows and groundwater Brian McCallum, USGS Reservoir status and outlook Bailey Crane, USACE Salinity levels in Apalachicola Bay Jenna Wanat, FL DEP Outdoor water variances, GA Bennett Weinstein, GA EPD Seasonal outlooks David Zierden Streamflow forecasts Jeff Dobur, SE River Forecast Center Summary and Discussion

3 Current drought status from Drought Monitor

4 14 Day Precipitation Totals

5 Cumulative Rainfall Deficits Past 30 days Since Oct. 1

6 Continuing Unsettled Pattern

7 Precipitation in last 2 weeks, 13 Aug

8 2-week Precipitation Anomaly, 13 Aug

9 Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Previous Brief: Current:

10 Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Previous brief: Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown Current:

11 Lake Lanier Inflows Chestatee near Dahlonega ( ) Chattahoochee near Cornelia ( )

12 Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at West Point ( ) Flint at Bainbridge ( )

13 Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee ( )

14 Groundwater Status Miller County, GA (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

15 USACE ACF Operations

16 Lake Lanier Elevation in FT NGVD Top of Conservation Zone Zone 3 Zone Zone Record Low Elevations Actual data thru August 13, Actual Elevation Forecast Elevation Historical Average Elevation Record Low Elevation (1960- Bottom of Conservation Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

17 West Point Elevation in FT MSL Top of Conservation Zone Zone Zone Zone Actual data thru August 13, Actual Elevation Forecast Elevation Historical Average Elevation Bottom of Conservation Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

18 W.F. George Elevation in FT MSL Top of Conservation Zone 1 Zone Zone Zone 4 Actual data thru August 13, Actual Elevation Forecast Elevation Historical Average Elevation Bottom of Conservation Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

19 Woodruff Elevation in FT NGVD Maximum Operating Level Actual data thru August 13, Actual Elevation Forecast Elevation Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

20 1,800, ACF Basin Composite Conservation & Flood Storage 1,800,000 Top of Conservation 1,600,000 1,600,000 Composite Conservation & Flood Storage, (ac-ft) 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , ,000 Drought Zone Composite Zone 4 Composite Zone 3 Composite Zone 1 Composite Zone 2 George Conservation West Point Conservation Lake Lanier Conservation 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 George Flood Storage West Point Flood Storage Lake Lanier Flood Storage 200,000-1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec 0 Actual data thru Add value of 1,856,000 acre-ft to include inactive storage.

21 DAY MOVING AVERAGE INFLOW VERSUS 1-DAY CHATTAHOOCHEE FLOW AVERAGE INFLOW /20/12 07/22/12 07/24/12 07/26/12 07/28/12 07/30/12 08/01/12 08/03/12 08/05/12 08/07/12 08/09/12 08/11/12 ENTIRE BASIN INFLOW CHATTAHOOCHEE FLOW

22 Apalachicola National Estuarine Research Reserve East Bay Cat Point Dry Bar

23 Daily Average Salinity at East Bay Bottom th percentile-highest 76-90th percentile 25-75th percentile 10-24th percentile lowest-10th percentile Salinity (ppt) /1 1/8 1/15 1/22 1/29 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 3/25 4/1 4/8 4/15 4/22 4/29 5/6 5/13 5/20 5/27 6/3 6/10 6/17 6/24 7/1 7/8 7/15 7/22 7/29 8/5 8/12 8/19 8/26 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 11/25 12/2 12/9 12/16 12/23 12/30 Day of the Year

24 45 40 Daily Salinity at Cat Point 90th percentile-highest 76-90th percentile 25-75th percentile 10-24th percentile lowest-10th percentile Salinity (ppt) /1 1/8 1/15 1/22 1/29 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 3/25 4/1 4/8 4/15 4/22 4/29 5/6 5/13 5/20 5/27 6/3 6/10 6/17 6/24 7/1 7/8 7/15 7/22 7/29 8/5 8/12 8/19 8/26 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 11/25 12/2 12/9 12/16 12/23 12/30 Day of the Year

25 45 40 Daily Salinity at Dry Bar 90th percentile-highest 76-90th percentile 25-75th percentile 10-24th percentile lowest-10th percentile Salinity (ppt) /1 1/8 1/15 1/22 1/29 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 3/25 4/1 4/8 4/15 4/22 4/29 5/6 5/13 5/20 5/27 6/3 6/10 6/17 6/24 7/1 7/8 7/15 7/22 7/29 8/5 8/12 8/19 8/26 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 11/25 12/2 12/9 12/16 12/23 12/30 Day of the Year

26

27 5-Day Precipitation Forecast

28 7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies

29 Multivariate ENSO Index

30 ENSO Predictions

31 Near Surface Winds

32 1-3 Month Precipitation Outlook 3 Month 1 Month

33 U.S. Drought Outlook

34 Tropical Outlook

35 Seasonal Hurricane Forecast Colorado State University (Klotzbach and Gray): 10 Named Storms (12 is normal) 4 Hurricanes (6.5 is normal) 2 Major Hurricanes (2 is normal) Beryl NOAA (updated Aug. 9, 2012) 50% chance of above normal season named storms 5-8 Hurricanes 2-3 Major Hurricanes

36 Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg Lovejoy Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal West Point Columbus Carsonville WF George Albany Columbus Woodruff Blountstown

37 24% 28% 48% Lake Lanier Inflows 7% 7% Whitesburg Above Normal Near Normal 86% West Point Lovejoy 19% 55% 26% Carsonville Below Normal Columbus WF George 22% 5% 73% Albany Columbus Woodruff 7% 14% Blountstown 79%

38 Summary Most of the AL and GA parts of the basin are still classified as in severe to exceptional drought though recent rains have alleviated drought in the FL panhandle and Lake Lanier inflows have improved slightly, but streamflows and groundwater levels in the southern part of the basin are still critically low Levels continue to decline for Lake Lanier and West Point, but WF George has increased slightly

39 Summary Entire basin inflows have surpassed the Chattahoochee flow, which is a positive sign Salinity levels have declined to <5 ppt at East Bay and about 22 ppt at Cat Point, but have increased to about 34 ppt at Dry Bar Six GA communities have applied for and received water use variances for outdoor water use since Sept 2011 The 5-day rainfall forecast calls for less than 2 inches across the basin, which is barely sufficient to meet crop demands Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies indicate a good probability that El Niño will develop

40 Summary The 3-month outlook indicates that drought is likely to be alleviated We are approaching the time of highest likelihood for formation of tropical systems, which peak around Sept 10 The 1-month streamflow forecasts are for below normal levels The 3-month streamflow forecasts are mostly for below normal levels, but the probability of normal or above normal streamflows have increased slightly Drought conditions appear likely to continue throughout the summer in GA and AL, with relief likely in the fall

41 References Speakers David Zierden, FSU Brian McCallum, USGS Victor Murphy, NOAA Jenna Wanat, FL DEP Bennett Weinstein, GA EPD Bailey Crane, US ACE Todd Hamill, SERFC Moderator Keith Ingram, UF/SECC Additional information General drought information General climate and El Niño information Streamflow monitoring & forecasting Groundwater monitoring

42 Thank you! Next briefing 28 Aug 2012, 1:00 pm EST Slides from this briefing will be posted at Please send comments and suggestions to:

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