Global Wind Turbine Markets and Strategies:
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1 Cambridge Tel: Barcelona Tel: Singapore Tel: Global Wind Turbine Markets and Strategies: August 2011 Market Study Excerpt The attached excerpt represents sample pages from IHS EER s market study released in August The complete 177-page study is available for purchase and immediate download at or by filling out the order form on the last page of this excerpt EMERGING ENERGY RESEARCH, LLC. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is strictly forbidden. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it.
2 Market Study Excerpt Global Wind Turbine Markets and Strategies: In 2010, the global wind industry managed to deliver a record amount of capacity: 39 GW. However, despite this impressive installation level, the industry continues to restructure as it seeks to adjust to a sustained demand slump in some regions. Particularly in the US and parts of Europe, order drops and capacity spillover have challenged turbine vendors to match manufacturing capacity with real demand. Simultaneously, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are diversifying their geographical and, in many cases, also their technological footprints. Growing demand has occurred alongside drops in orders, challenging strategic positioning and product development plans of turbine vendors. A surge of new entrants in the offshore sector is expected, with prototype installations already underway both onshore and offshore since June Meanwhile, a host of manufacturers are rolling-out turbine models to improve yields at low- to medium-wind-speed sites, with competition intensifying substantially over the last 12 months. As growing track records, cost and service-based differentiation, and partnerships continue to shape competitive advantages, key trends that will shape the market as a whole include: The global wind industry continues to be well-positioned for sustained growth through 2025 despite a sustained slowdown in orders. Turbine and component supply capacity and manufacturing investments will expand to match growing demand. Because OEMs can no longer compete on product availability alone, product and service differentiation will continue to intensify. Reverberations from the financial crisis continue to heavily weigh on wind turbine prices in the near term. The battle for market share will become more disputed in 2011 as competition increases in the US, Europe, and offshore based on ambitious manufacturing capacity investments and new players still looking to enter these markets. Exhibit 1-1: Global Turbine Manufacturing Trends Overview by Region North America Rate of capacity build-up challenged due to drop in orders; Asian entrants eyeing potential manufacturing sites Canada Enercon Samsung UK GE Mitsubishi Europe Eyeing future supply capacity primarily in offshore, but also in Eastern Europe Russia/Turkey* Asia Pacific Domestic players increasing multi- MW assembly capacity in China; several vendors tapping existing regional production bases to broaden Asian footprint China US Nordex Alstom Goldwind A-Power Latin America Enercon, IMPSA with Brazil integrated production Brazil Alstom Suzlon India Vietnam GE IMPSA Initial Build-Up Expansion/Investment in Capacity Relocation in Companies with Planned/New Local Presence Note: * has currently only announced the possibility of setting up manufacturing capacity in Turkey Source: Manufacturers, IHS Emerging Energy Research 1-1
3 1.1 Global Demand Forecasts, : Steady Growth Path In 2010, despite experiencing the first year-on-year drop in global wind power installations since , the global wind power industry still installed an impressive 32.6 GW of capacity, reaching GW installed worldwide. IHS EER anticipates this figure will rise steadily to over 940 GW installed by IHS EER anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.6% between 2010 and Intense Global Market Share Battle, with Chinese Players Reshuffling the Top Five Despite the economic downturn, the global turbine market saw an 11% growth in capacity delivered last year, rising from 35.2 GW in 2009 to 39 GW in From a global perspective, 2010 was another record year for turbine suppliers, driven by further growth in Asia. However, in spite of continued overall global growth, vendors were forced to continue trimming their production capacity in Europe and the US, with ongoing drops in orders and stocked capacity. Exhibit 1-3: Global Wind Turbine Market Share, MW Delivered: ,000 Other Alstom Wind 40,000 Mitsubishi Clipper Dongfang 35,000 Nordex Goldwind MW Delivered 30,000 25,000 Acciona Windpower Enercon GE Energy Sinovel Suzlon 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Note: Data is based on wind turbine deliveries on an annual basis, and not on wind turbine activations Source: IHS Emerging Energy Research 1-2
4 1.3 Turbine Size Forecast: 1.5 MW to 2.5 MW Products are Key to Competitiveness The global wind turbine market s scaling up in turbine size will likely continue as underscored by new product launches in the segment of lower-wind-speed machines from leading turbine manufacturers, as well as new Asian competitors entering the space targeting multi-megawatt segments. As a result, IHS EER anticipates tight competition among products in the 1.50 MW to 2.49 MW range, which accounted for 76% of the market in While the 1.5 MW to 2.49 MW turbine size will dominate the market through 2017, 3 MW and larger turbines will account for over 40% of the market in 2018 and nearly 55% in 2025, pushing the market to a new scale once again. Annual Installed Market Share by Rated Capacity (MW) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Exhibit 1-4: Global Annual Wind Installed by Rated Turbine Capacity: <1.00 MW MW MW MW MW 3.00 MW Source: IHS Emerging Energy Research 1.4 Turbine Prices Bottoming Before Slow, Long-Term Recovery Pricing in the global wind turbine market has undergone rapid shifts in the last two-and-a-half years. Since a capacity shortage began in 2006, turbine prices rose dramatically, from just over US$1,000/kW in 2005 to nearly US$1,400/kW in The recession hitting the market in 2009 resulted in an inflection point in turbine pricing and a return to cost declines of nearly 25%, down to US$1,050/kW and lower for turbine plus tower. Ongoing globalization of turbine manufacturing, increasing competition from Asian suppliers, and an abrupt drop in demand created a challenging pricing environment for manufacturers as the industry moved from a seller s to a buyer s market. As a result, pressure on prices has not released in 2011, pushing average prices below US$910/kW for turbine plus tower. 1-3
5 Global Wind Turbine Markets and Strategies: Additional market studies available from IHS Emerging Energy Research: Wind Turbine Supply Chain Strategies: (Released July 2011) US Wind Power Markets and Strategies: (Released May 2011) Asia Wind Turbine Strategies in the Global Market: (Released February 2011) Global Offshore Wind Energy Markets ad Strategies: (Released November 2010) Latin America Wind Power Markets and Strategies: (Released April 2010) For more information visit energy.com or contact ORDER FORM: Global Wind Turbine Markets and Strategies: Fill in the order form below and e mail to eersales@ihs.com Study Now Available: Order today and receive immediate online access Name Title Company Address City Postal Code Phone E mail VAT # 1 5 User License PDF: Corporate License PDF: State/Prov Country Fax US$ Euro $4, $7, HOW TO ORDER 1. Fill in the order form at left and e mail this page to eersales@ihs.com 2. Purchase online at energy.com For questions please contact eersales@ihs.com IHS Emerging Energy Research is a leading research and advisory firm analyzing clean and renewable energy markets on a global basis. In addition to market studies, IHS Emerging Energy Research offers research advisory services, which provide a continuous stream of business intelligence, competitive analysis, and strategic advice. Clients receive detailed Market Forecasts, Strategy Papers, On Point Briefings and Analyst Access to help them meet a variety of needs within their organization. Payment Options: Please Bill Me: Purchase Order # Please Charge My Credit Card: VISA MasterCard AMEX Account Number: If you are interested in learning more about how our Advisory Services can benefit your organization, please contact eersales@ihs.com. For more information on IHS EER, please visit our website at energy.com. Expiration Date: Security Code: Cardholder Name Date Signature AMERICAS OFFICE: CAMBRIDGE, MA, USA TEL: EUROPE/MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA OFFICE: BARCELONA, SPAIN TEL: ASIA PACIFIC OFFICE: SINGAPORE TEL: WEBSITE: ENERGY.COM
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