Monitoring Drought Across Many Scales
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1 Purdue University Purdue e-pubs 2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts Drought Research Initiative Network Monitoring Drought Across Many Scales Chris Funk USGS, Follow this and additional works at: Part of the Climate Commons, and the Earth Sciences Commons Funk, Chris, "Monitoring Drought Across Many Scales" (2011) Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts. Paper This document has been made available through Purdue e-pubs, a service of the Purdue University Libraries. Please contact epubs@purdue.edu for additional information.
2 UCSB Climate Hazard Group Monitoring drought across many scales U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Chris Funk 6/21/2011
3 USGS EROS Climate Hazard Group FEWS NET
4 Famine Early Warning System Network The Famine killed 1 million+ Ethiopians
5 Drought water deficits at many scales Days Months Years Decades Weakened ecosystems Vulnerable households Increasing poverty Decreasing health hunger reduced income Livestock mortality Crop failure Frailed states Population growth Malnutrition Crop deficits Higher commodity prices Weak global governance Commodity price increase Local Regional Global
6 Monitoring across scales Days Months Years Decades Integrated Climate Services? climate High Resolution? Satellite data? weather Global Drought Monitoring? Local Regional Global
7 Drought function of demand Days Months Years Decades Increasing temperatures Population growth Farming practices Crop efficiency Adaptation? Conflict? New demands (biofuels ) Increasing demand on surface water supplies Less political freedom Higher prices Local Regional Global
8 Mapping water demand is important
9 Prices communicate risk around the world
10 Wildfire: from Russia to Cairo 50% of Russian wheat comes from Egypt
11 Population growing faster than yields ftp://chg.geog.ucsb.edu/pub/pubs/foodsecurity_2009.pdf
12 Drought function of supply Days Months Years Decades Climate trends Climate patterns Warming Planet Repetitive droughts Hydrologic drought Agricultural drought Meteorological drought Local Regional Global
13 FEWS NET Monitoring Schema ftp://chg.geog.ucsb.edu/pub/pubs/realtimedss_for_fews_net_final.pdf
14 Upscaling/Downscaling Climate Trends ftp://chg.geog.ucsb.edu/pub/pubs/royalsociety_2005.pdf
15 Warming Indian East African Drought ftp://chg.geog.ucsb.edu/pub/pubs/pnas_2008.pdf
16 Westward Extension of the Warm Pool ftp://chg.geog.ucsb.edu/pub/pubs/climatedynamics_2010.pdf
17 Evaporation windows & the Indian Monsoon?
18 Monitoring Decadal Trends ftp://chg.geog.ucsb.edu/pub/pubs/mapping_decadal_variations.pdf
19 Shrinking rains caused by a warming Indian Ocean Areas receiving more than 500 mm during the Long rains
20 August 2010 La Nina-based Alert The prospects for the 2011 March to May rains are likely to be impacted by La Niña conditions, depending on the intensity and duration of the event. It is significant to note that four of the last six October November December La Niña events in East Africa resulted in poor March to May rains the following year.
21 Early Warning Explorer: OND
22 Early Warning Explorer: MAM
23 Historic Context: June 2011 Photo: May 2011, Kenya
24 Happy Thoughts Satellites, computers and software advances provide a tremendous opportunity The networked world allows rapid communication Climate, hydrologic and crop models allow for integration and understanding
25 Concerns Demands for water are increasing Per capita food supplies decreasing Market system exposes billions of urban poor to hydrologic risks Enhanced hydrologic cycle may bring drought to some
26 Conclusions Need better integration across time-scales Are short term responses mal-adaptive? Need better integration across data sources Convergence of evidence critical Satellites tremendous resource Early-mid season rainfall/lst Late season NDVI/AET Weather/climate divide divisive Need better integration across social networks Policy makers are not using drought information effectively
27 Monitoring across scales Days Months Years Decades Integrated Climate Services? climate High Resolution? Satellite data? weather Global Drought Monitoring? Local Regional Global
Monitoring and modeling agricultural drought for famine early warning
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