Shale Gas as an Alternative Petrochemical Feedstock

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1 Shale Gas as an Alternative Petrochemical Feedstock Tecnon OrbiChem Seminar at KICHEM 2012 Seoul - 2 November, 2012 Roger Lee

2 SHALE GAS WHERE DOES IT COME FROM? Source: EIA

3 SHALE GAS EXPLOITATION Commercial Shale Gas Exploitation Requires: Advanced seismic & modelling techniques Accurate directional and horizontal drilling methods Safe & effective hydraulic fracturing procedures US Shale Gas Timeline: 1950s Fracturing started as oilfield technique 1970s Main developments s Exploitation of Barnett shale in North Texas 2005 Barnett shale output 0.5 trillion ft 3 /year 2010 US shale gas output 4.8 trillion ft 3 /year (23% of total) 2035 Shale gas 46% of US total output Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

4 SHALE GAS EXTRACTION FRACKING Watch this video:

5 WORLD SHALE GAS RESOURCES Source: EIA

6 ESTIMATED SHALE GAS* vs. PROVEN NATURAL GAS Trillion Cubic Feet (TCF) 2,000 1,500 1, World Gas Reserves TCF Proven Natural Gas Reserves 6,609 Technically Recoverable Natural Gas 16,000 Technically Recoverable Shale Gas* 6,622 Technically Recoverable Total Gas 22,622 Shale Gas Share of Total Gas 30% Technically Recoverable Shale Gas* Proven Natural Gas *Shale Gas estimates exclude: Middle East Russia Southeast Asia Central America China Source: EIA USA Argentina Mexico South Africa Australia Canada Libya Algeria Brazil Poland France

7 SLOW SHALE GAS EXPLOITATION OUTSIDE THE US In the US, mineral rights fall to the land owner, elsewhere they are state-owned, introducing political and regulatory blocks 14,000 wells have been drilled in the Barnett Shale. In 2009, 1,121 wells were drilled in the Marcellus Shale Exploration in Poland started in 2010, with aim of production by As of March 2011 only 5 exploratory shale gas wells had been drilled with a total of 15 planned for the whole year 2011 In France, President Hollande has recently upheld a ban on fracking and ordered rejection of 7 exploration permits The UK government has yet to respond to a report on fracking commissioned after small earthquakes near Blackpool In September 2012, South Africa lifted a ban on shale gas exploration - but not fracking Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

8 NATURAL GAS, CRUDE OIL & COAL PRICES $/mmbtu 30 US Nat Gas $/mmbtu 20 Oil $/mmbtu equivalent 10 Coal $/mmbtu equivalent WE Nat Gas $/mmbtu equivalent Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

9 SHALE GAS IN THE UNITED STATES Source: EIA

10 US NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION BY SOURCE Trillion Cubic Feet Shale Gas Output Reverses Downwards Production Trend Shale Gas Tight Gas Non-Associated Offshore Alaska Coalbed Methane Associated With Oil Non-Associated Onshore Source: EIA

11 HENRY HUB SPOT NATURAL GAS PRICE 2010 $/mmbtu 10 Reference Case 8 High Economic Growth 6 Low Economic Growth Shale Gas Output Reverses Upwards Pricing Trend Forecast Price $4-6/mmBtu High Well Productivity Low Well Productivity Source: EIA

12 SHALE GAS ECONOMICS Shale Gas Economics Dependant Upon: Cost of extraction Ease of distribution Gas composition Shale Gas a Victim of Its Own Success? Most shale gas fields yield acceptable return at $5-6/mmBtu NGL Uplift adds $ /mmBtu Oversupply and low prices are slowing dry gas development Focus is turning to wet gas and shale oil US oil rig count now exceeds gas rig count Focus on wet gas improves ethane availability Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

13 SHALE GAS WHAT S IN IT? Natural Gas (Methane) Dry Gas Heating Fuel Power Generation Liquefied for Export (LNG) Natural Gas Liquids (Ethane & Propane) Wet Gas Petrochemical Feedstock NGLs Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

14 SHALE GAS COMPOSITION Component Marcellus Shale Barnett Shale (Volume %) (New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia) (Texas) Well 1 Well 2 Well 3 Well 4 Well 5 Well 1 Well 2 Well 3 Well 4 Methane Ethane Propane Carbon Dioxide Nitrogen Source: Oil & Gas Journal

15 SHALE GAS WHAT S IN IT FOR PETROCHEMICALS? Increased supply of Dry Gas (methane): Lower energy prices (heating and power generation). Benefit energy or power intensive industries such as Chlor-Alkali Feedstock availability for C 1 products e.g. Methanol etc. In 2006 there were 60 plans for US LNG import terminals Now terminals applying and being approved to export Japan to import US LNG by 2015 Increased supply of Wet Gas (ethane & propane): Lower ethylene feedstock costs and increased competitivity Investment in E/P vs naphtha crackers or closures 16 million tpa ethylene expansions in North America announced US ethane surplus and exports INEOS to import US ethane to Europe from 2015 Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

16 NORTH AMERICAN METHANOL REVIVAL Methanex, Medicine Hat, Alberta Restarted 470 ktpa unit in 2011 (shut for 10 years) Adding 100 ktpa in 2013 OCI North America, Beaumont, Texas Restarted 850 ktpa unit in 2012 (shut 2004) LyondellBasell, Channelview, Texas Restarting 780 ktpa unit end 2012 (shut 2003) Methanex, Geismar, Louisiana Relocating 1 million tpa unit from Chile for 2014 restart Decision on moving a second plant expected 2013 Celanese, Clearlake, Texas New build 1.3 million tpa unit on-stream 2015 More to Come? Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

17 US OLEFINS BACK TO THE FUTURE? Pre 2000 US ethylene crackers mainly ethane and E/P feedstock Competitively priced ethylene and derivatives Ethylene derivatives enjoy export support prices Major importer of propylene and butadiene US ethylene crackers switch to naphtha feedstock or close US ethylene derivatives less competitive plant closures Post 2010 US crackers switching to ethane feedstock New ethane crackers planned Competitively priced ethylene and derivatives More US ethylene, polyethylene and MEG? Reduced availability and higher prices for C 3, C 4 etc. Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

18 SHALE GAS EXTRACTION - FRACKING

19 FRACKING - OBJECTIONS Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

20 CONCLUSIONS Certainties There s a lot of Shale Gas around Technology allows for economic exploitation High oil price environment helps Higher natural gas availability & lower prices boost NGL markets Higher ethane availability & lower prices boost C 3 and C 4 markets Uncertainties Recoverable reserves Extraction rates Pricing Government regulatory policy Environmental concerns Source: Tecnon OrbiChem

21 ..your source of expert chemical industry knowledge

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