ERCOT in 2018: Challenges & Opportunities

Transcription

1 ERCOT in 2018: Challenges & Opportunities Bill Magness President & CEO ERCOT Texas-Germany Bilateral Dialogue on Challenges and Opportunities in the Electricity Market February 27, 2108

2 What is ERCOT? The Texas Legislature restructured the Texas electric market in 1999 and assigned ERCOT four primary responsibilities: System reliability Competitive wholesale market Open access to transmission Competitive retail market ERCOT is a nonprofit organization that is regulated by the Public Utility Commission of Texas, with oversight by the Texas Legislature. ERCOT is not a market participant and does not own generation or transmission/distribution wires. 2

3 Texas Consumes More Electricity Than Other U.S. States. Why? In 2016, retail sales to industrial customers in Texas (113.4 million MWh) were more than twice as high as in #2 California (50.9 million MWh). 3

4 Who is most responsible for the development of modern Texas? Willis Carrier ( ) Inventor of Air Conditioning Texas Population in 1902: 3.2 million Texas Population in 2018: 28.3 million Photo available from 4

5 Summer Weather Impacts on Load by Customer Type Thursday, Aug. 11, :00 p.m. ERCOT Load: 71,093 MW Temperature in Dallas: 106 Thursday, March 24, :00 p.m. ERCOT Load: 33,597 MW Temperature in Dallas: 62 >37,000 MW of weather-sensitive load -- 53% of peak Customer class breakdown is for competitive choice areas; percentages are extrapolated for municipals and co-ops to achieve region-wide estimate Large C&I are IDR Meter Required (>700kW) Hourly integrated demand values 5

6 Current Records Peak Demand Record: 71,110 megawatts (MW) Aug. 11, 2016, 4-5 p.m. Weekend Record: 68,368 MW Saturday, July 29, 2017, 4-5 p.m. Winter Peak Record: 65,750* MW Jan. 17, 2018, 7-8 a.m. Wind Generation Records (instantaneous) Output: 17,541 MW Feb. 19, 2018, 10:05 p.m. Penetration (load served): 54% Oct. 27, 2017, 4 a.m. Total Load = 28,416 MW* *New records are preliminary, subject to change in final settlement Monthly Peak Demand Records 2018 January: 65,750* MW (Jan. 17, 7-8 a.m.) 2017 April: 53,486 MW (April 28, 4-5 p.m.) May: 59,264 MW (May 26, 4-5 p.m.) June: 67,633 MW (June 23, 4-5 p.m.) July: 69,512 MW (July 28, 4-5 p.m.) October: 62,333 MW (Oct. 9, 4-5 p.m.) 2016 August: 71,110 MW (All-time record) September: 66,949 MW (Sept. 19, 4-5 p.m.) December: 57,932 MW (Dec. 19, 7-8 a.m.) 6

7 Energy Use Comparison Total energy consumed: 347,617,436 MWh Total energy consumed: 351,523,351 MWh *includes solar, hydro, petroleum coke, biomass, landfill gas, distillate fuel oil, net DC Tie and Block Load Transfer imports/exports, and an adjustment for Wholesale Storage Load 7

8 Wind Generation Capacity January 2018 Steady growth continues, with some spikes. Largest annual increase: 3,294 MW in 2015 (A close second: 3,220 MW in 2008) Incentives, uncertainty and other factors affect construction decisions and schedules. Not all planned projects will get built. Texas continues to lead U.S. in wind capacity. Future outcomes uncertain 8

9 Utility Scale Solar Generation Capacity January 2018 Future outcomes uncertain The data presented here is based upon the latest registration data provided to ERCOT by the resource owners and can change without notice. Any capacity changes will be reflected in current and subsequent years' totals. Scheduling delays will also be reflected in the planned projects as that information is received. This chart reflects planned units in the calendar year of submission rather than installations by peak of year shown. 9

10 Retail Market Activity Switching Retailers Enrollment Requests Processed Per Year 1,200,000 1,098,964 1,000, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Since the market opened in 2002, 93% of residential customers have selected a REP. 10

11 $/MWh Wholesale Energy Prices at Record Lows $90.00 Load-Weighted Average Energy Prices in ERCOT $80.00 $ $ $ $ $30.00 $ $10.00 $

12 2018 Summer Reserve Margin Changes 2018 Summer Reserve Margin Changes Since May 2017 Report +2.0% -1.3% -6.1% Load Forecast -1.2% -1.7% 18.9% -1.4% +0.1% Resources 9.3% Summer 2018 Reserve Margin (May CDR 2017) 2018 Load Forecast Adjustment (1,175 MW) ERS Update (764 MW) Generation Unit Retirements (4,334 MW) Delayed Renewable Projects (881 MW Peak Contribution) Delayed Gas Projects (1,193 MW) Extended Outages and Mothballs (1,025 MW) Other Factors Summer 2018 Reserve Margin (Dec CDR 2017) 12

13 ERCOT Challenges & Opportunities Adapting to the changing resource mix Continue to operate reliably with increasing penetrations of inverter-based technologies. Improved comprehensive real-time stability assessments to enable flexible responses to system conditions. Distributed Energy Resources & Demand Response Establish visibility, integrate and respond to new resources that are not currently visible on the transmission system. Foster increased opportunities for participation by price-responsive demand. Cybersecurity Recognize and mitigate increased risks. Leverage industry and government collaboration. 13

14 Integrating and Managing Renewables New Desk: Added Reliability Risk Desk in the control room in January 2017 Inertia: Tracking system inertia against Critical Inertia levels and monitoring sufficiency of Responsive Reserves in Real-Time & Day-Ahead markets Net Load: Assessing available generation capacity and Non-Spin reserves to serve expected variability in net load Ancillary Services: Procurement of enough Non-Spin to operate reliably during hours with high risk of net load ramp; for the first time, 2017 procurement included solar. Peak Average Wind and Solar Capacity Percentages Season Coastal Wind Non-Coastal Wind Solar Winter 35% 20% 5% Spring 68% 29% 47% Summer 58% 14% 77% Fall 44% 35% 63% 14

15 Resource Forecasting: Wind Generation ERCOT continues to refine renewable resource output forecasting. Day Ahead Wind Forecast Performance 9.00% 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% YEARLY AVG MEAN ABSOLUTE %ERROR 5.80% 5.63% 6.24% 8.29% 8.32% 8.51% Hour Ahead Wind Forecast Performance 6.0% YEARLY AVG MEAN ABSOLUTE %ERROR 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.6% 5.3% 5.3% 4.0% 3.7% 3.8% 0.0%

16 MAPE % Load Forecast Performance 1.4 Short-Term Load Forecast Accuracy Forecast horizon - minutes Previous Model New Model Neural network models adopted in 2014 improved forecast accuracy. 16

17 ERCOT Challenges & Opportunities Adapting to the changing resource mix Continue to operate reliably with increasing penetrations of inverter-based technologies. Improved comprehensive real-time stability assessments to enable flexible responses to system conditions. Distributed Energy Resources & Demand Response Establish visibility, integrate and respond to new resources that are not currently visible on the transmission system. Foster increased opportunities for participation by price-responsive demand. Cybersecurity Recognize and mitigate increased risks. Leverage industry and government collaboration. 17

18 ERCOT Challenges & Opportunities Promoting Resilience Be prepared to operate if our existing grid or market systems become unavailable. Develop systems with adverse conditions in mind (A recent examples in Texas: Hurricane Harvey). Resist fragile environments. Managing amidst increasing complexity Facilitate development and testing of increasingly complex and inter-related IT systems. Train operators for a more unpredictable system. Develop modern, useful interfaces for sharing information with those we serve. 18