Section C: Carbon Cycle

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1 Section C: Carbon Cycle Outline C.1 Introduction C.2 The global carbon cycle C.3 Human perturbations to the carbon cycle C.4 Global carbon budget GEOG 313/513 Fall 2016 Global Climate Change 1 Prof J. Hicke

2 Section C: Carbon Cycle Learning outcomes explain the major stocks of the global carbon cycle understand the major sources and sinks of the carbon cycle and the time scales over which they operate describe the human perturbations to the carbon cycle and where the emitted carbon is going GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014 Global Climate Change 2 Prof J. Hicke

3 Section C: Carbon Cycle Outline C.1 Introduction C.2 The global carbon cycle C.3 Human perturbations to the carbon cycle C.4 Global carbon budget GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014 Global Climate Change 3 Prof J. Hicke

4 black arrows: preindustrial red arrows: from human activities Carbon stocks and fluxes stocks fluxes IPCC, AR5, WGI, 2013 Global Climate Change 4 Prof J. Hicke

5 stocks(plants and soil) Carbon stocks incarbon ecosystems Global Climate Change 5 Prof J. Hicke

6 Carbon stocks cdiac.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/global_carbon/carbon_documentation.html Global Climate Change 6 Prof J. Hicke

7 Carbon fluxes GPP or NPP (and R?) Global Climate Change 7 Prof J. Hicke

8 Forest disturbances and the C cycle carbon management Sink of C from atmosphere Source of C to atmosphere Cumulative impact: equivalent to 5 years of emissions from Canada s transportation sector Kurz et al. 2008, Nature Global Climate Change Kurz et al., Nature, Slide courtesy W. Prof Kurz, J. Hicke CFS

9 Sea-to-Air Carbon Flux to sea to air cdiac.ornl.gov/oceans/ldeo_underway_database/pco2_flux_rate_maps.html Global Climate Change 9 Prof J. Hicke

10 Long-term Carbon Cycle Global Climate Change 10 Prof J. Hicke

11 Section C: Carbon Cycle Outline C.1 Introduction C.2 The global carbon cycle C.3 Human perturbations to the carbon cycle C.4 Global carbon budget GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014 Global Climate Change 11 Prof J. Hicke

12 Global Climate Change 12 Prof J. Hicke

13 Animation of CO2 story.html Global Climate Change 13 Prof J. Hicke

14 Annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 Global Climate Change 14 Prof J. Hicke dougrobbins.blogspot.com/2012/04/modeling-global-co2-cycles.html

15 Fossil Fuel and Cement Emissions Global fossil fuel and cement emissions: 36.1 ± 1.8 GtCO 2 in 2013, 61% over 1990 Projection for 2014 : 37.0 ± 1.9 GtCO 2, 65% over 1990 Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC likely range) Estimates for 2011, 2012, and 2013 are preliminary Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

16 Observed Emissions and Emissions Scenarios Emissions are on track for ºC likely increase in temperature above pre-industrial Large and sustained mitigation is required to keep below 2ºC Data: CDIAC/GCP/IPCC/Fuss et al 2014 Over 1000 scenarios from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report are shown Source: Fuss et al 2014; CDIAC; Global Carbon Budget 2014

17 Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Absolute) The top four emitters in 2013 covered 58% of global emissions China (28%), United States (14%), EU28 (10%), India (7%) Bunkers fuel used for international transport is 3% of global emissions Statistical differences between the global estimates and sum of national totals is 3% of global emissions Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

18 Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Per Capita) China s per capita emissions have passed the EU28 and are 45% above the global average Per capita emissions in 2013 Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

19 Size of country proportional to total CO2 emissions in 2009 Global Climate Change 19 Prof J. Hicke

20 CO2e emissions by sector (source) US EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: , 2014 IPCC AR4, 2007 Global Global Climate Change 20 Prof J. Hicke

21 US emissions by consumers of fossil fuels EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: , 2014 State of the Carbon Cycle Report, 2007 Global Climate Change 21 Prof J. Hicke

22 Including all greenhouse gases in calculation of CO 2 e Global Climate Change 22 Prof J. Hicke

23 Tropical deforestation mazonian-deforestation-soars/ Global Climate Change 23 Prof J. Hicke

24 Deforestation patterns Global Climate upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b6/fires_and_deforestation_on_the_amazon_frontier%2c_rondonia%2c_brazil_-_august_12%2c_2007.jpg Change 24 Prof J. Hicke

25 Arc of deforestation (red) in Amazon Global Climate Change 25 Prof J. Hicke

26 Historical Emissions from Land Use Change Carbon Emissions from Tropical Deforestation Africa Latin America GtonC y -1 (16% total emissions) Pg C yr S. & SE Asia SUM R.A. Houghton, unpublished Global Climate Change 26 Prof J. Hicke

27 Land-Use Change Emissions Global land-use change emissions are estimated 3.3 ± 1.8 GtCO 2 during The data suggests a general decrease in emissions since 1990 Indonesian peat fires Three different estimation methods have been used, indicated here by different shades of grey Land-use change also emits CH 4 and N 2 O which are not shown here Source: Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

28 Total Global Emissions by Source Land-use change was the dominant source of annual CO 2 emissions until around 1950 Coal consumption continues to grow strongly Others: Emissions from cement production and gas flaring Source: CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

29 Section C: Carbon Cycle Outline C.1 Introduction C.2 The global carbon cycle C.3 Human perturbations to the carbon cycle C.4 Global carbon budget GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014

30 Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions ( average) 32.4±1.6 GtCO 2 /yr 91% 15.8±0.4 GtCO 2 /yr 44% 3.3±1.8 GtCO 2 /yr 9% ±2.9 GtCO 2 /yr 29% Calculated as the residual of all other flux components 26% 9.4±1.8 GtCO 2 /yr Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

31 Carbon uptake by land and ocean IPCC, AR5, WGI, 2013 Global Climate Change 31 Prof J. Hicke

32 Global carbon budget IPCC, AR5, WGI, 2013 Global Climate Change 32 Prof J. Hicke

33 Global Carbon Budget Emissions are partitioned between the atmosphere, land, and ocean Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

34 Global Carbon Budget The cumulative contributions to the Global Carbon Budget from 1870 Contributions are shown in parts per million (ppm) sources sinks Figure concept from Shrink That Footprint Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

35 North American carbon budget State of the Carbon Cycle Report, 2007 Global Climate Change 35 Prof J. Hicke

36 Large uncertainties in model results for uptake of carbon on land IPCC, AR5, WGI, 2013 Global Climate Change 36 Prof J. Hicke

37 Large uncertainties when modeling future vegetation type columns: different GCMs rows: different assumptions about vegetation (amount of CO2 and its effect on photosynthesis) Lapola et al., 2009 Global Climate Change 37 Prof J. Hicke

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