confidence estimates of reserves] using current market conditions and current technologies)
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1 Case 1: According to the British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy, 2013, global coal reserves declined in the decade ending Provide an explanation. Conclude with a forecast of coal market conditions over the subsequent 5 to 10 years. According the British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy, 2013 global coal reserves 1 have fallen 984,453 million tonnes in 2002 to 860,938 million tonnes in This represents a decrease in coal preserves of some 12.5% over that ten- year time period. New fuel supplies and superior technologies will continue to displace coal from the market place. While coal will never disappear from the global fuel scene, it s importance will diminish over the decades to come. This is largely a story about electrical generation, in that coal remains a significant player in the production of electricity in most countries around the world. Causes for Decrease of Coal Reserves Estimating the total world proven reserves (860,938mt), and knowing the total annual global consumption, (something in the order of 3,730mt in 2012,) simple arithmetic suggests that we have some 230 years worth of coal in the ground, given current consumption levels. (860,938/3700 = 230) Of course if we imagine a scenario where global coal consumption increases at a rate of 3% per year, then the reserves will be depleted quicker, unless more reserves are proven. Exploration for new coal seems unnecessary at this time, as such a large quantity exists for our needs. Of course without continued exploration for coal, the reserves will continue to fall. Another reason coal reserves have declined is the nature of competing products, especially in the generation of electricity. Large quantities of natural gas have come into the market, largely from horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing of tight gas (and oil) supplies found in oil shale. Natural gas production continues to grow year-over-year Despite lower prices and reduced drilling compared with a year ago, natural gas production in the United States is running nearly 7% higher in 2015 than it was for the same period in Total U.S. production growth continues to be driven by regional shale production, concentrated in the Marcellus area in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio. 1 Coal reserves defined as commercially extractable coal, from known [or high confidence estimates of reserves] using current market conditions and current technologies)
2 This natural gas, being cleaner to burn and price competitive, has found its way to gas- fired electrical generation plants all over the world, but especially in the US where conditions 2 have made it s extraction favorable. The oil shales are found in abundance in areas not typically associated with hydrocarbon production. Examples include the Bakken shales in North Dakota or the Antrim in Michigan. Countries like Mexico and Pakistan have technically recoverable oil shales, but are hampered by high base water stress 3 levels, which make them unlikely for resource extraction given current market and technology conditions. Natural gas reserves have been increasing globally over the same ten- year period from trillion cubic meters to trillion and increase of some 17.3%. If we look back to 1992, we see global gas reserves having risen from 119 trillion cubic meters to today s levels of trillion cubic meters something like a 55% increase. 2 Environmental Protection Agency and the Clean Air Act have been putting the coal- fired generation of electricity under ever grater regulation, as will be noted on page 2. 3 Base level water stress can be defined as any region where water is physically scarce or economically scarce or both. Physical scarcity is the result of a lack of available water to meet the needs of the local population. Economic scarcity is perhaps best defined as a poor water management and distribution program for any given region the water may be available, but at a price that makes it too dear for anything but subsistence use.
3 Natural Gas Pricing As can be seen in Figure 3 above, relative to coal, natural gas has had greater volatility since at least However, in January of 2012, the price of NG met or fell below the same $/MMBtu as coal, making it very price competitive 4 for electricity generation while providing a net decrease in the CO2 emissions that the US Clean Air Act has been tightening up on. Politics and Policies - Regulation and the US Clean Air Act (CAA) In the United States, The Clean Air Act or CAA and it s various amendments since 1970 have been putting regulations and restrictions in place on stationary CO2 emitters. As these emitters are identified (in this discussion we re talking about fossil fuel fired electrical generation plants) the Environmental Protection Agency (acting under the CAA) develops New Source Performance Standards or NSPSs. The long and short of it is that coal- fired electrical generation plants especially new ones being built or planned will be held to a higher standard for CO2 emissions than previously constructed plants and this means that the dirty coal will be displaced by cleaner natural gas. In the US, this means that there will be (or already is) a good and steady market demand for natural gas for these plants which will provide confidence for investors in natural gas resource exploration and extraction, especially tight gas, which the US seems to have in abundance. China At present, China is the largest single user of coal for electrical generation in the world consuming about 50% of global production and most projections suggest that this isn t going to stop any time soon. China s installed electrical generating capacity has increased from some 806gW in 2008 to 1,174gW in Most of that has been coal- fired plants. While coal consumption and coal- fired electricity generation are not exactly equivalent measure, they are close enough for the purposes of comparison. Below, we see that US coal consumption has leveled off and even begun to fall, while the Chinese 4 In 2010$
4 numbers continue to rise. This is increase is largely due to increasing numbers of coal- fired electricity plants being built in China. But even with this dramatic increase in Chinese coal consumption (largely for electrical generation) we saw a 2.9% decrease from 2013 to This is likely explained by a general economic slow- down of the region. But, we ve also seen a net increase in the percentage of electric generation via other methods especially wind and, of course, nuclear. As China looks ahead to the year 2030, their mix of electricity generation continues to favor coal, but we see an increase in both renewables and nuclear which result in a decrease of coal use from 79% in 2006 to 75% in Forecast and Conclusions Barring some major catastrophe around human health and population, it s pretty much a given that world population is going to increase from the current 7 billion to some 8 billion by , with most of that increase coming from developing countries. Each of those people will want and need access to affordable and reliable power for their home, businesses and personal electronics. As we have seen, a 230- year supply of coal reserves and historically, relatively stable prices, ensures that coal will remain an important component of the global electricity generation mix for years to come. Still, as competitive forms of energy come into the market, such as natural gas from horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, wind and solar power, global coal reserves will continue to decrease over the next five to ten years, while reserves of natural gas especially tight gas will continue to increase. 5 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division 1 World Population to 2300
5 Add to this, the concerns about green house gas emissions from coal- fired electric generation plants (and the as yet unproven technology of deep ground CO2 injection for carbon sequestering) 6 and we are left to conclude that coal reserves will continue to decline while reserves of natural gas and the use of renewables will continue to rise. 6 Carbon sequestration describes long- term storage of carbon dioxide or other forms of carbon to either mitigate or defer global warming and avoid dangerous climate change. It has been proposed as a way to slow the atmospheric and marine accumulation of greenhouse gases, which are released by burning fossil fuels Wickipedia. While a handful of carbon sequestration facilities exist notably Norway s Sleipner saline aquifer and North Dakota s Weyburn- Midale Carbon Dioxide Project there is no wide spread, commercially viable technologies presently being undertaken.
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