Why Copenhagen Still Matters:
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- Piers Roberts
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1 Why Copenhagen Still Matters: International Aspects of Domestic GHG Compliance EPRI Board of Directors Meeting November 16, 29
2 Why Copenhagen Matters to U.S. Firms Proposed climate legislation assumes abundant and cheap U.S. and international offsets as a way to contain compliance costs But Although there is significant potential for offsets from forestry and agriculture, it won t be available immediately and globally Energy-related CO 2 abatement in non-oecd is abundant and cheap, but many institutional barriers exist near-term If developing countries participate in a global agreement, they will be less willing to export their cheap abatement options International actions will help shape the U.S. climate landscape 2
3 Implications of Offset Policy for Electric Company Strategy Delavane Diaz Project Manager 3
4 Generous Offset Provisions Could Loosen Proposed Cap Emission Reductions Under an "8% by 25" Cap-and-Trade Program Allowed emissions with full offsets BAU for capped sectors 6 Emissions (MtCO2e) 4 Path with full offset banking Waxman-Markey Cap
5 Lowest Cost Emission Reductions Come From Offsets and the Electric Sector Compliance Sources in EIA Analysis of Waxman-Markey EIA Basic Policy Case EIA No International Offsets Case 6 Emissions (MtCO2e) 4 2 Electric sector reductions Non-electric reductions Offsets, international Offsets, domestic forestry & ag Source: EIA NEMS runs, HR2454 Cap, HR2454 No Int Offsets
6 Two Possible CO 2 Price Paths Represent Alternative Offset Assumptions EIA Allowance Price Estimates for Waxman-Markey $2 No Int'l Offsets & Limited Alternatives Case Allowance Price (27$/MtCO2) $15 $1 $5 $- Plentiful Offset Scenarios $2 + 5%/yr Basic Policy Case High Offsets Case Limited Offset Scenarios $5 + 5%/yr No International Offsets Case Source: EIA NEMS runs, HR2454 Cap, No IntOffsets, No IntOffsets/Lim, High Cost, High Offsets 6
7 Given a Portfolio of Technologies, CO 2 Policy Guides Electric System Choices Midwest Region Electricity Supply by Source 6 $2 CO 2 Case $5 CO 2 Case +5%/yr +5%/yr 3 Energy Efficiency Price Response Renewables MWh (millions) Regional Emissions (MtCO2) New Nuclear New CCSCoal Gas Coal Existing Nuclear Hydro Regional Emissions Source: EPRI Regional Stack Model, Midwest ISO results 7
8 Companies Can Comply With Modest Abatement and Allowances at $2/tCO 2 Policy takes effect 212 Emissions (MtCO2) BAU no policy emissions reference Emissions covered with allowances or offsets % biomass co-firing 2% heat rate improvements Avoided emissions from dispatch lost under $2/ton policy Actual emissions after abatement Biomass co-fire reductions Heat rate improvements Lost dispatch (reduced operation) Allowance market & offset credit purchase Actual emissions Source: Midwest ISO and illustrative electric company results 8
9 $5 CO 2 Adder Transforms the Generation System Existing Coal is No Longer Competitive 2 Emissions (MtCO2) Native load met by purchasing power or adding capacity Biomass co-fire reductions Heat rate improvements Lost dispatch (reduced operation) Allowance market & offset credit purchase Actual emissions Source: Midwest ISO and illustrative electric company results 9
10 Conclusions CO 2 price expectations guide strategic investments $2 and $5/tCO 2 paths could present dramatically different futures for power companies Current offset provisions in Congress make international policy a domestic compliance issue 1
11 Forestry and Agricultural Offsets: Reassessing Potential Supply Steven Rose Senior Project Manager 11
12 Early Offsets Assumed To Contain Overall Costs I ll focus on the role of forest and agriculture in the near-term Source: EPA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 29 H.R in the 111th Congress (6/23/29) 12
13 Forestry & Agricultural Offsets 35% Of Near-term Abatement Mostly Forests Agriculture Cropland soil tillage changes Cropland fertilizer management Paddy rice water, amendment, and cultivar changes Livestock manure and enteric emissions management Forestry Afforestation: growing trees on non-forest land Forest management: changes in harvest timing, management intensity, and species mix Reduced deforestation of unmanaged forests Cumulative GtCO 2 eq % US EPA HR2454 Scenario 2 IGEM abatement Capped Intl other Intl energy CO2 Intl agriculture 35% Intl forests US forests (some ag) Bioenergy feedstocks & fossil fuel combustion also from these sectors (but capped) * Decomposition of international offsets by S Rose based on HR2454 Data Annex 13
14 Significant Implementation Challenges & Risks Program rules and timing? Mechanisms/institutions for delivering? International climate policy? Financial viability market interpretation of programs & mechanisms? Raises questions about availability and viability Immediate, comprehensive & global availability likely infeasible 14
15 How Might A Domestic Forest/Agriculture Offset Program Unfold? Comprehensive eligibility immediately (21) Comprehensive = soil carbon, soil nitrous oxide, livestock (manure, enteric), paddy rice, afforestation, forest management Restricted eligibility immediately (21) Restricted = livestock manure management and afforestation Comprehensive eligibility delayed (to 22) Infeasible Restricted eligibility delayed (to 22) 15
16 Comprehensive Immediate Policy Delivers Maximum Offsets With $15/tCO 2 eq (in 21) + 5%/yr Mitigation Cumulative billion tonnes CO 2 eq Offset eligible Capped Offset Capped ineligible(primarily Offset net bioelectricity) Offset eligible 21-2 = 1.3 billion tonnes CO = 19 billion tonnes CO Infeasible Comprehensive immediate Restricted immediate Comprehensive delayed to 22 Restricted delayed to 22 16
17 Restrictions and/or Delay Reduces Availability, Creates Potential for Unintended Consequences Mitigation Cumulative billion tonnes CO 2 eq Offset eligible Offset ineligible Capped Offset net Net loses from ineligible activities Large long-run potential 4 1% reduction in near-term offset supply Loss reduced by not including existing carbon Comprehensive immediate Restricted immediate Comprehensive delayed to 22 Restricted delayed to 22 17
18 How Might An International Forest Carbon Program Unfold? Comprehensive eligibility immediately (21) Comprehensive = afforestation, forest management, reduced deforestation Afforestation only immediately (21) Afforestation to 225, comprehensive after Nothing to 225, comprehensive after Infeasible 18
19 Comprehensive Immediate Policy Delivers Maximum Offsets 5 With $15/tCO 2 eq (in 21) + 5%/yr Mitigation Cumulative billion tonnes CO Eligible Ineligible Net Offset eligible = 128 billion tonnes CO = 36 billion tonnes CO 2 Infeasible Comprehensive immediate Afforestation only immediate Afforestation to 225, comprehensive after Nothing to 225, comprehensive after 19
20 Restrictions and/or Delay Reduces Availability, Creates Potential for Unintended Consequences 5 Huge long-run potential Mitigation Cumulative billion tonnes CO Eligible Ineligible Net 7 1% reduction in near-term supply, although afforestation remains sizable But accelerated deforestation and early harvesting Comprehensive immediate Afforestation only immediate Afforestation to 225, comprehensive after Nothing to 225, comprehensive after 2
21 Conclusions Forestry & agriculture mitigation potential won t be available immediately, comprehensively, and globally In the near-term, Less mitigation potential than estimated possibly none Near-term carbon loses seem inevitable but there are management options Significant long-run potential that could moderate overall compliance costs Forest/ag policy design will affect offset supply (cost and availability) and net climate benefits 21
22 International Offsets: The Potential Role of the Energy Sector Geoff Blanford Senior Project Manager 22
23 Context Under Waxman-Markey bill, energy-related offsets are admissible through a sectoral mechanism Energy-related CO 2 abatement in non-oecd is abundant and cheap, but many institutional barriers exist near-term In long-term, as support for global stabilization efforts broadens, non-oecd countries will become less willing to export cheap abatement options Is there a window of opportunity for offsets? 23
24 Sources of International Compliance Trading with other OECD Non-CO 2 offsets (e.g. CDM) Energy sector CO 2 offsets Afforestation / REDD offsets MERGE 24
25 Non-OECD Abatement Opportunities in $/ton CO2-e Total non- CO 2 GHGs Total energy-related CO 2 Huge Theoretical Potential billion tons CO2-e reduction from BAU 25 MERGE model results
26 Energy-Related CO 2 Abatement By Region Year = $/ton CO Russia China India Mid-income Low-income billion tons CO2 reduction from BAU 26 MERGE model results
27 7% Of Abatement Occurs In Electric Sector electric sector other Year = 23 $/ton CO Russia Single Largest Source China India Mid-income Low-income billion tons CO2 reduction from BAU 27 MERGE model results
28 What Are The Institutional Barriers? Energy-related offsets must come from a capped sector in a participating country under a qualifying agreement Cap must be below BAU; only reductions beyond the cap can be sold as offsets, market mechanisms are unclear Electric sector is by far the largest sector (in terms of lowcost abatement), with China by far the largest country Would China accept an electric-sector cap linked to the US trading system? Or would it undertake its own policy? 28
29 China s Electric Sector Emissions Baseline 1 Billion tons CO2 8 6 Suppose an agreement is reached with China s electric sector. $18 Cap $28 $48 $86 $161 $/ton CO 2 in 23 29
30 Offset Transfers From Non-OECD To OECD International policy environment: 8% below 199 caps in OECD (USA + EU + Japan + CANZ) OECD import limit W-M scale offset provisions in all OECD countries Expanding CDM for non-co 2 offsets from non-oecd Billion tons CO 2 -e CO 2 from China s electric $6 Energy offsets from capped Chinese electric sector If institutional barriers are overcome, supply could become substantial. 1.5 Current CDM volume Non-CO $
31 OECD Compliance After Offset Transfers 8 USA 8 Other OECD BAU 7 6 CAP Reductions BAU 7 6 CAP Reductions Billion tons CO 2 -e Domestic Non-CO 2 offsets Imported credits Domestic Non-CO 2 offsets Imported credits
32 Baseline Emissions for Non-OECD Billion tons CO 2 -e G8 Leaders Goal for 25: 5% global reduction below 2 levels + 8% below for OECD = 2% below for non-oecd Low-income Mid-income India China Russia
33 Significant Non-OECD Emissions Cuts Required To Meet 5% Global Reduction Target Billion tons CO 2 -e G8 Leaders Goal for 25: 5% global reduction below 2 levels + 8% below for OECD = 2% below for non-oecd Low-income Mid-income India China Russia
34 For G8 Goal, Permit Trade Flows Other Direction 8 USA 8 Other OECD BAU Billion tons CO2-e CAP Domestic Non-CO 2 offsets Imported credits Reductions BAU CAP Domestic Non-CO 2 offsets Imported credits Reductions
35 Conclusions Deals on sectoral policies may be important, particularly if there are loose caps on electric sectors in large countries Political economy behind such agreements is complex, could take several years to negotiate Even with a successful negotiation, mechanism for selling excess reductions to US compliance parties is not clear Ultimately, sectoral caps may be abandoned in favor of national targets as countries join stabilization effort 35
36 International Climate Policy: A Second Best Solution for a Second Best World? Richard Richels Senior Technical Executive 36
37 Why is Copenhagen (and Beyond) Important Will be important in establishing what counts as emission reductions and who gets the credit for them - Forestry and agriculture offsets - Energy sector agreements Proposed global GHG reduction targets can lead to much higher prices for CO 2 than previous estimates - May be extremely difficult to achieve 37
38 Key Determinants Of Climate Policy Costs 1. Limits imposed on global emissions 2. When countries agree to join coalition 3. Developing country behavior prior to joining coalition 38
39 What Are The Limits on Global Emissions? Current proposals could place severe pressure on most countries OECD 18% 35 3 CO 2 emissions path corresponding to 2.5 o C limit Billion tons CO non-oecd 82% Population in 25 OECD non- OECD Industrial CO 2 Emissions 39
40 When Do Countries Join Coalition? OECD countries form coalition now Non-OECD countries 23: Brazil, Russia, India, China (BRIC) join 25: Rest of World (ROW) joins
41 How Do Acceding Countries Behave? Before joining coalition, non-oecd countries can: (1) Ignore Accession No advance planning, business-as-usual until commitments are adopted (2) Anticipate Accession Expectations of future commitments lead to advance planning 41
42 Effect of Anticipation on ROW Countries 25 Billion tons CO historical emissions MERGE projections baseline no anticipation with anticipation Ignore Accession: no departure from baseline before 25 With Anticipation: energy investments plan for future targets, reducing overall costs and emissions ROW
43 Effect of Anticipation on BRIC Countries 25 Billion tons CO historical emissions MERGE projections baseline no anticipation with anticipation Ignore Accession: no departure from baseline before 23 5 BRIC With Anticipation: energy investments plan for future targets, reducing overall costs and emissions
44 Effect of Anticipation by Developing Countries on OECD 25 Billion tons CO historical emissions MERGE projections baseline no anticipation (by non-oecd countries) with anticipation (by non-oecd countries) 5 OECD With Anticipation: OECD gains headroom 44
45 Non-OECD Anticipation Significantly Reduces Global CO 2 Price A $1, $ per ton CO 2 $8 $6 $4 $2 no anticipation with anticipation Reduction in Policy Costs due to Anticipation $18 Trillion $
46 Conclusions Actions outside of US can have a major impact on domestic mitigation costs A commitment on the part of the BRICs and ROW now to reduce emissions at some date in the future can be a win-win proposition 46
47 Why Copenhagen Matters to U.S. Firms Proposed climate legislation assumes abundant and cheap U.S. and international offsets as a way to contain compliance costs But Although there is significant potential for offsets from forestry and agriculture, it won t be available immediately and globally Energy-related CO 2 abatement in non-oecd is abundant and cheap, but many institutional barriers exist near-term If developing countries participate in a global agreement, they will be less willing to export their cheap abatement options International actions will help shape the U.S. climate landscape 47
48 Together Shaping the Future of Electricity 48
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