Shale Gas Global. New Zealand LPG
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1 Shale Gas Global New Zealand LPG
2 New Zealand LPG Where to from here? 2
3 LPG ('000 Tonnes) 300 LPG Production and Demand to 2018 (calendar year) Kapuni Kupe McKee/Mangahewa Maui Waihapa/Rimu Extra supply - expected Extra supply - maximum Total Demand
4 BACK TO THE FUTURE BUT NOT QUITE.. Production close to 2002 levels 2002 single producer exported 2013 multiple producers exporting Demand 2002 higher and rising 2013 lower but recovering Supply Contracts 2002 one or two fixed price contracts with variable volume 2012 multiple contracts with mostly variable pricing and fixed volumes Pricing 2002 almost totally fixed until 2007 and lower than import cost 2013 mostly variable pricing referenced to international prices. A substantial transfer of risk from producers to retailers and customers 4
5 WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL LPG VALUES HIGHLY VARIABLE PRICE Export Vs Import Parity Export Parity-PacificNZ$ Export Parity-Asia NZ$ Import Parity NZ$ 5
6 CHALLENGES Export infrastructure capacity Multiple producers & truck load in Larger cargos Multiple products - butane, propane, mix More port closures Small ship economics Australia USD per tonne Asia USD per tonne 6
7 RESPONSE Maximising use of current infrastructure assets Remove Taranaki bottlenecks Develop Auckland currently underutilised Developing markets closer to home New Zealand Pacific Islands Australia 7
8 Shale Gas Global Implications 8
9 SHALE GAS 1. Where? 2. How Big? 3. When? 4. What Impact? 9
10 Where? Almost everywhere 10
11 WHERE? Almost everywhere
12 WHERE? Still Checking
13 How Big? Global Game Changer 13
14 TECHNICALLY RECOVERABLE RESOURCES Crude Oil (Billion Barrels) Outside the USA Total 3,134 20,451 Shale 287 6,634 Shale as a % 9% 32% USA Total 223 2,431 Shale Shale as a % 26% 27% Total World Total 3,357 22,882 Shale 345 7,299 Shale as a % 10% 32% Wet Natural Gas (trillion cubic feet) 14
15 TOP 10 COUNTRIES WITH TECHNICALLY RECOVERABLE SHALE GAS RESOURCES 15
16 When? Nth America Now Rest of the World Post 2020? 16
17 WHEN CURRENT STATE 17
18 WHEN USA 20 Years in the making Technology development Government funded research Tax incentives Regulatory framework Then a supply shock in 2 years Up to 2009 USD100 billion invested in import facilities 4.5 tcf By % of this capacity was idle Shale accounted for 20% of production by
19 US GAS SUPPLY SHOCK (OIL IS GROWING EVEN FASTER) 19
20 EUROPE Slower, longer, costlier Likely to be much slower than the USA post 2020 Shale resources under densely populated areas Hydrocarbons owned by the state (not landowners) Environmental concerns Pipeline infrastructure less developed Drilling service industry much less advanced Regulatory regime undeveloped Geology less favourable Landowners/residents have no financial incentive to support development, a strong incentive to oppose it (NIMBY) and environmental concerns provide leverage. 20
21 CHINA Likely to be faster than Europe but: Shale resources a long way from economic centres in the east Non-existent infrastructure Environmental concerns Lack of water in resource areas Drilling service industry less advanced Low gas prices controlled by the state Geology may not suit existing technologies Chinese government has set very ambitious (impossible?) targets Actively working to attract international oil companies 21
22 REST OF THE WORLD Australia Shale resources a long way from economic centres in the east Non-existent infrastructure Environmental concerns Higher cost than CSG South America in the early stages Other countries further back Realistically any significant shale gas development in the rest of the world will not deliver results until after
23 ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS Key concerns Ground water contamination by gas or waste water Water scarcity Methane emissions Seismic effects The health, safety and environmental risks associated with hydraulic fracturing. can be managed effectively in the UK as long as operational best practises are implemented and enforced through regulation (Royal Society and Royal Academy of Engineering 2012) But If the public becomes convinced that shale gas is bad then no amount of scientific study or knowledge will counter this (IEA 2012) Therefore Full transparency, measuring and monitoring of environmental impacts and engagement with local communities are critical to addressing public concerns (IEA 2012) 23
24 Impact A seismic shift in world markets 24
25 NOT YET FULLY UNDERSTOOD There are a large number of uncertainties such as: USA Will exports of locally produced gas be allowed? Is there a long term economic case for US export facilities? Or will price & technology driven developments increase domestic demand? China Will they be successful at accelerating shale production reducing imports, increasing the world surplus and driving prices down? Or will costs be too high so that increasing imports from Russia & the Middle East soak up the world s shale gas surplus? How will current suppliers react? Slow development or reduce production to maintain prices? 25
26 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS A faster initial reduction in CO 2 and black carbon emissions Coal substitution especially in electricity generation Diesel substitution in heavy transport etc There is a fear that lower prices will ultimately result in: Slower development of renewables or even; Substitution of renewables with lower cost gas resulting in higher CO 2 emissions for longer 26
27 THE WORLD MARKET Like LPG, gas is costly to transport so a worldwide market with a single price is unlikely to develop and regional markets will prevail. In three regional markets North America, Europe and Asia prices have diverged since 2005 Future development of LNG processing facilities and shipping will narrow the spreads But the costs of this infrastructure and transport will ensure that some level of price differential remains The USA will have relatively low priced energy for some time and possibly a long time if the shale revolution is slow to spread LNG prices may well break free from oil prices 27
28 28
29 PRICING AND COSTS Current delivered costs to Japan (oil linked contracts) USD16 per MMBTU (equates to NZD21 per GJ) It is estimated that US Shale gas could be delivered into Asia for USD7 12 per MMBTU Total transport costs including LNG liquefaction, shipping and regasification of USD4 8 Extraction costs USD4-6 Estimates of shale gas extraction costs by country (IEA): 29
30 SOME OBSERVATIONS North America will be self-sufficient and a possible exporter by 2020 or sooner Canada gets squeezed as its largest customer becomes a potential competitor and will have to export LNG Existing gas suppliers have over-built capacity and will need to find a home for their excess production Of the 70 million tons of LNG capacity built between 2009 and 2011, 26% was destined for North America (25 billion m 3 of gas) They will need reconsider their pricing assumptions and; Look to expand markets in Europe, Asia and elsewhere 30
31 TRADE FLOWS IN
32 FURTHER OBSERVATIONS Asia will have potential long term supply alternatives reducing their dependence on the Middle East and lowering prices from the current USD16+ per MMBTU Probably in 2 phases: Phase 1 benefiting from the excess supply caused by US shale gas possibly including US/Canadian gas USD7-12 per MMBTU Phase 2 Development of shale resources in Asia, mostly USD4-8 per MMBTU Europe will see reduced import costs but may be the biggest loser if their own shale development is very slow Increased competition from countries with lower energy prices Petrochemical industries will face competitors from USA and Middle East with much lower feedstock prices 32
33 FURTHER OBSERVATIONS Russia will face significant price competition from other suppliers and will look east to China and Asia Current political leverage over Europe reduced Australia will face increased price competition and will have to significantly reduce development costs if the next wave of new conventional and unconventional gas projects is to go ahead. South American supply balance may shift from Venezuela and Bolivia to Argentina, Brazil and Chile 33
34 .NEW ZEALAND SOME IMPORTANT QUESTIONS How will our energy prices be effected? 40% of New Zealand gas goes into methanol production which sets the effective marginal price If shale gas lowers the cost of methanol production in Asia and the Middle East what would be the impact on: Asian methanol prices and therefore New Zealand gas prices? New Zealand electricity prices? The value of New Zealand s renewable energy resources? On the other hand lower gas/oil prices will lower transport costs and bring us closer to the rest of the world so: What will be the net effect on New Zealand s overall competitiveness? 34
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