Small Modular Reactors In A UK Low Carbon Energy System

Transcription

1 Small Modular Reactors In A UK Low Carbon Energy System The International SMR and Advanced Reactor Summit USA - 14 th to 15 th April 2016 Mike Middleton Energy Technologies Institute 2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP. This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Energy Technologies Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies.

2 Presentation Structure Introduction to the ETI The Energy Technologies Institute - what do we do? Nuclear in a UK low carbon 2050 energy system Large Nuclear deployment constraints Finding a UK niche for small nuclear ETI s recent projects and analysis Nuclear Insights October 2015 Power Plant Siting Study Alternative Nuclear Technologies Study ESME Sensitivity Analysis For Nuclear Current work on preparing to deploy a first SMR in the UK Siting options for the first SMRs Engineering and cost estimation studies related to CHP and different cooling systems Enabling activities in the first 5 years of a programme to deploy the first SMR in the UK

3 Introduction to the ETI organisation The Energy Technologies Institute (ETI) is a public-private partnership between global industries and UK Government ETI members Delivering... Targeted development, demonstration and de-risking of new technologies for affordable and secure energy Shared risk ETI programme associate

4 What does the ETI do? System level strategic planning Technology development & demonstration Delivering knowledge & innovation

5 Typical ESME Outputs Energy System Modelling Environment

6 Net UK CO 2 Emissions Typical ETI Transition Scenario Mt CO 2 /year (Historic) DB v3.4 / Optimiser v International Aviation & Shipping Transport Sector Buildings Sector Power Sector Industry Sector Biocredits Process & other CO2 Notes: Usual sequence in the least-cost system design is for the power sector to decarbonise first, followed by heat and then transport sectors Biocredits includes some pure accounting measures, as well as genuine negative emissions from biomass CCS.

7 Installed Electrical Generation Capacity GW Typical Scenario Without CCS Delay (Historic) DB v3.4 / Optimiser v3.4 Geothermal Plant Wave Power Tidal Stream Hydro Power Micro Solar PV Large Scale Ground Mounted Solar PV Onshore Wind Offshore Wind H2 Turbine Anaerobic Digestion CHP Plant Energy from Waste IGCC Biomass with CCS Biomass Fired Generation Nuclear CCGT with CCS CCGT IGCC Coal with CCS PC Coal Gas Macro CHP Oil Fired Generation Interconnectors Notes: Nuclear a key base load power technology. Almost always deployed to maximum (40GW) Big increase in 2040s is partly due to increased demand (for heating and transport), and partly because the additional renewables need backup

8 Competition For Sites? Potential For Competition For Sites Between Nuclear and New Thermal Plants With CCS Aspirational Capacity 16 GW Site Capacity CO 2 disposal sites in Irish and North Seas CO 2 storage and transport infrastructure expected to be located on the coast nearer the disposal sites New thermal plant requires CCS connection and access to suitable and sufficient cooling water 40 GW? 75 GW? Note: the policy of the Scottish Government is not to support the deployment of new nuclear within Scotland but to focus on renewables instead Potential coastal locations to access CCS transport and disposal infrastructure

9 Can Small Nuclear Build A Niche Within The UK Energy System? For SMRs to be deployed in UK: technology development to be completed range of approvals and consents to be secured sufficient public acceptance of technology deployment at expected locations against either knowledge or ignorance of alternatives deployment economically attractive to o reactor vendors o utilities and investors o consumers & taxpayers Small Nuclear Large Nuclear Realistic objective for SMRs to be economically attractive to all stakeholders FID Final Investment Decision

10 Niche For Small Nuclear In The UK? Single Revenue Stream Containment structure 1. Baseload Electricity Multiple Revenue Streams Containment structure 1. Baseload Electricity 2. Variable Electricity To Aid Grid Balancing Control rods Steam Generator Generator Control rods Steam Generator Generator Turbine Turbine Reactor vessel Condenser Waste Heat Rejected To The Environment Reactor vessel Condenser 3. Heat Recovery To Energise District Heating Systems

11 Decarbonising Heat Is Important Net UK CO 2 Emissions Mt CO 2 /year (Historic) DB v3.4 / Optimiser v3.4 International Aviation & Shipping Transport Sector Buildings Sector Power Sector Industry Sector Biocredits Process & other CO2 Notes: Usual sequence in the least-cost system design is for the power sector to decarbonise first, followed by heat and then transport sectors Biocredits includes some pure accounting measures, as well as genuine negative emissions from biomass CCS.

12 Decarbonising Heat Is Challenging Heat demand variability in 2010 Unattractive to electrify it all Heat Electricity Design point for a GB heat delivery system Heat / Electricity (GW) Heat demand Electricity demand Design point for a GB electricity delivery system 0 Jan 10 Apr 10 July 10 Oct 10 GB 2010 heat and electricity hourly demand variability - commercial & domestic buildings R. Sansom, Imperial College

13 ETI Projects Delivered Power Plant Siting Study Explore UK capacity for new nuclear based on siting constraints Consider competition for development sites between nuclear and thermal with CCS Undertake a range of related sensitivity studies Identify potential capacity for small nuclear based on existing constraints and using sites unsuitable for large nuclear Project schedule June 2014 to Aug 2015 Delivered by Atkins for ETI following competitive open procurement process System Requirements For Alternative Nuclear Technologies Develop a high level functional requirement specification for a black box power plant for baseload electricity heat to energise district heating systems, and further flexible electricity to aid grid balancing Develop high level business case with development costs, unit costs and unit revenues necessary for deployment to be attractive to utilities and investors Project schedule August 2014 to Aug 2015 Delivered by Mott MacDonald for ETI following competitive open procurement process Outputs to be used in ETI scenario analysis to determine attractiveness of such a black box power plant to the UK low carbon energy system

14 So What Have We Learned? Power Plant Siting Study System Requirements For Alternative Nuclear Technologies ETI ESME Scenario and Sensitivity Studies For Nuclear

15 Siting Data Applied In ESME Capacity constraints applied in ESME

16 Future Heat Networks Almost 50 GB urban conurbations with sufficient heat load to support SMR energised heat networks Would theoretically require 22 GWe CHP SMR capacity

17 Distribution Of SMR Site Capacity Site capacity for SMRs (not suitable for Giga watt reactors) from the Power Plant Siting Study - Further potential locations likely to be found; the limit has not been explored SMR Capacity (GWe) By Cooling Water Source SMR Capacity (GWe) By Regional Location To Meet Demand SMR Capacity (GWe) By Distance From Potential District Heating Network

18 Assumptions: Prices

19 Updated ESME Baseline Capacity with 35 GWe Large Gen III+ and without SMRs

20 Updated ESME Baseline Capacity with 35 GWe Large Gen III+ with SMRs available SMR deployment capacity at 2050 influenced by: Speed to first UK SMR operations Capital cost ( /kwe) 2050 Nuclear Capacity 1 GWe legacy (SZB) 35 GWe Gen III+ 16 GWe CHP SMRs

21 Requirement For SMR Flexible Power Delivery Reduction in SMR summer overnight power generation in this model run Flexibility is likely to be important to be able to modulate power to help balance the grid The flexibility here is diurnal, within a seasonal pattern Remember also the impact from intermittent renewables and associated peak generation

22 ESME Analysis Results For Nuclear In UK Large reactors optimal here Baseload Flexible Extra-flex Electricity only SMR power plant Baseload power (continuous full power operation between outages) Operated with daily shaped power profile when required to help balance the grid (Slightly) reduced baseload power with extra storage & surge capacity Combined Heat & Power (CHP) plant As above but with heat As above but with heat As above but with heat SMRs optimal here

23 Conclusions from published ETI insights

24 Less than 10 years to prepare to deploy a UK Small Modular Reactor

25 UK capability to support SMR deployment Launch of SMR competition by UK Government: Expressions of interest until 6 th May Phase 1 dialogue late May until autumn 2016

26 Further ETI Projects Relevant To UK SMRs What is the range of locations suitable for early SMR deployment and is there an obvious front runner for a First Of A Kind (FOAK) SMR site? Power Plant Siting Study Phase 3 What are the design, cost and operational implications of committing to a plant which is CHP ready when built? What are the potential cooling system choices and economic impacts if unconstrained access to cooling water becomes more difficult? System Requirements For Alternative Nuclear Technologies Phase 3 What are the necessary enabling activities in the first five years of an SMR programme to support a UK SMR operating date of 2030? SMR Deployment Enablers Project

27 Power Plant Siting Study Phase 3 Work In Progress (1) Some important UK issues for SMR siting: Importance of preserving stock of sites suitable for Giga watt reactors Necessity of strong, consistent local stakeholder support to make early progress Relevance of siting within UK Government s SMR competition Wide range of potential site ranking criteria in 2 groups: The physical characteristics of the location Socio economic factors near the location, which may change with time

28 Alternative Nuclear Technologies Phase 3 Work In Progress (2) Scope: Technical viability of extracting heat for District Heating (DH) from SMR steam cycle Steam system design to enable flexible heat extraction alongside flexible power generation Cost estimation necessary to check earlier assumptions and revisit SMR economics assessed in ANT Phases 1 and 2 Assess whether vendor choices influence suitability of designs for CHP deployment Assess performance, cost and economic impacts from adopting different cooling solutions other than evaporative cooling towers Identify precedents of nuclear energised CHP and experience of existing DH networks energised by a range of sources

29 Exploiting The Economies Of Multiples UK GDA and Coping With Variants Standardise To Exploit Economies of Multiples Direct Cooling Reactor Balance of Plant Ultimate Heat Sink Turbine Hall Cooling System Options Evaporative Cooling Air Cooled Condensers Heat Offtake Options Fin Fan Cooling Process Heat Desalination District Heating Options to Support Local Market and Deployment Scope of Design To Be Assessed Through Generic Design Assessment

30 SMR Deployment Enablers Work In Progress (3) Scope: Development of scope for first 5 years of a UK SMR programme Integrated schedule for first 5 years, which could support ops by 2030 Identify necessary capability development of SMR developer/operator Key Assumptions: Vendor and developer/operator have already been identified at start Developer/operator is new to the UK; UK capability generation required The UK First Of A Kind SMR site is not currently included in National Policy Statement EN6 SMR Context compared with the UK Giga watt reactor new build programme: Faster programme to deployment compared with Giga watt reactors UK Government policy for SMRs still being developed Proposition not yet commercially proven to potential investors

31 Approach To Delivering The SMR Deployment Enablers Project Work Breakdown Structure One Page Scope Description Per Element Integrated Schedule Focus On First 5 Years

32 Conclusions from published ETI insights (1) More in summer 2016 preparing to deploy

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