100% Renewable Ireland

Transcription

1 100% Renewable Ireland The long and short term changes required to eliminate fossil fuels David Connolly Associate Professor in Energy Planning Aalborg University Denmark The Institute of International and European Affairs 23 rd March 2016

2 Ireland s Energy System Today Resources Combustion Engines Conversion Exchange and Storage Demand Fuel Storage Power Exchange Mobility Electricity Electricity Storage Fossil Fuels Power Plants Cooling Boilers Heating 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 2

3 Ireland s Recent Changes Resources Combustion Engines Conversion Exchange and Storage Demand Fuel Storage Wind etc. Fluctuating Electricity Power Exchange Mobility Electricity Electricity Storage Fossil Fuels Power Plants Cooling Boilers Heating 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 3

4 Changes: Resources & Storage Resources Combustion Engines Conversion Exchange and Storage Demand Fuel Storage Wind etc. Fluctuating Electricity Power Exchange Mobility Electricity Stored Energy Electricity Storage Fossil Fuels Power Plants) Cooling Boilers Heating 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 4

5 Levelised Cost of Electricity Production ( /MWh) Wind Power is Cheap! 30% Capacity Factor Wind vs. ~8300 Hours/Year for Power Plants O&M Investment Fuel 10 0 Onshore Wind MW Coal Steam PP MW CCGT 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 5

6 Conclusion 1: Wind power is cheap if we can integrate it 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 6

7 Where is the new & cheap energy storage? 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 7

8 Energy Storage Electricity Thermal Decreasing Unit Cost ( /kwh) Gas Oil 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 8

9 Storage Cost and Resource Comparison Electricity = 170/kWh X ~100 Thermal = 0.5-3/kWh X ~100 Gas = 0.05/kWh Oil = 0.02/kWh 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 10

10 Storage Cost and Resource Comparison Danish Oil Storage ~50 TWh Electricity = 170/kWh X ~100 Thermal = 0.5-3/kWh X ~100 Gas = 0.05/kWh Annual Danish Electricity Demand ~35 TWh Oil = 0.02/kWh Thermal Storage ~65 GWh? Danish Gas Storage ~11 TWh 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 11

11 Conclusion 2: We need to maximise fuel and thermal storage 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 11

12 Smart Energy System Website/Software Books Videos Journals 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 12

13 Smart Energy System Resources Conversion Exchange and Storage Combustion Engines Demand Fuel Storage 2. Wind etc. Fluctuating Electricity Electrofuel Power Exchange Mobility (Vehicles) EVs Flexible Electricity Electricity Storage Fuels 1. CHP (or Quad) Heat Pump Cooling Thermal Storage Heating Solar etc. Fluctuating Heat 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 13

14 Green Plan Ireland Ensures move towards the final goal and not the corner flag! Quantify the impact of various steps: Energy CO2 Costs 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 14

15 Key Supply Technologies in Green Plan Ireland 1. Flexible power stations (gas plants) 2. District Heating in Urban Areas 3. Heat Pumps in Rural Areas 4. Smart Grids 5. Electric Vehicles 6. Electrofuels: Methanol/DME (Power-to-fuel) 7. Electrofuels: Methane (Power-to-gas) 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 15

16 Primary Energy Supply (TWh) Primary Energy Supply: Intermittent Renewables (IRES) Increase From 5% to 65% IRES Biomass Natural Gas Oil Coal Potential Stage of a Transition to 100% Renewable Energy 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 16

17 Conclusion 3: 100% Renewable Energy is Technically Possible 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 17

18 Annual Costs Based on 2050 Prices (M ) Approximately the same costs, but move from fuel-dependent to investmentdependent => More Jobs! 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 CO2 Fuel O&M Investments Stage of Transition to 100% Renewable Energy 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 18

19 Conclusion 4: 100% Renewable Energy has similar costs to a Business-As-Usual Fossil Fuel energy system But, Renewable energy will also create more Irish jobs 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 19

20 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 20

21 Proven Technologies for the Long-Term 2. District Heating in Urban Areas 3. Heat Pumps in Rural Areas 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 21

22 2. District Heating & 3. Heat Pumps Resources Conversion Exchange and Storage Combustion Engines Demand Fuel Storage 2. Wind etc. Fluctuating Electricity Electrofuel Power Exchange Mobility (Vehicles) EVs Flexible Electricity Electricity Storage Fuels 1. CHP (or Quad) Heat Pump Cooling Thermal Storage Heating Solar etc. Fluctuating Heat 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 22

23 Sweden s Heating Mix Source: S. Frederiksen, S. Werner, District heating and cooling, Studentlitteratur, Lund, March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 23

24 Three HRE Studies Complete: Study 1 (2012): will district heating play a role in the decarbonisation of the European energy system? Study 2 (2013): what is the balance between heat savings and heat supply at an EU level? Study 3 (2015, STRATEGO WP2): what is the balance between heat savings and heat supply for 5 member states? Another on the way ( ): Heating and cooling strategies for 14 countries 29 February 2016 Brussels, Belgium 24

25 The Potential for District Heating in Ireland 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 25

26 Pan-EU Thermal Atlas (Peta) Ireland = 30-40% of Heat Currently Feasible for DH 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 26

27 Dublin Heat Demand 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 27

28 Dublin District Heating Potential (From Codema) >150 TJ/km2 = DH, which is 75% of Dublin City Heat Demand 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 28 Source: Gartland, D. Dublin City Spatial Energy Demand Analysis: An analysis of the energy demand of Dublin city, resulting in a range of evidence-based energy demand maps for effective planning. Codema, Available from:

29 Supplying the District Heating Network Dublin City Heat Demand: ~4 TWh Max potential excess heat from power stations in Dublin Bay (if in CHP mode): ~5 TWh => Excess Heat Could Supply ALL of Dublin City s Heat Demands 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 29

30 1. Work informed the EU Commission during the creation of the first ever EU heating and cooling strategy 2.Includes balance between energy efficiency on the demand and supply side of the heat sector 3. District Heating is a key part of it

31 Conclusions 1. Wind power is cheap if we can integrate it 2. We need to maximise fuel and thermal storage % Renewable Energy is Technically Possible % Renewable Energy has similar costs to a Business-As-Usual Fossil Fuel energy system, but Renewable energy will also create more Irish jobs 5. District heating is a proven technology, which can capture excess heat in Ireland and use it to replace natural gas for heating our cities 6. District heating is a proven technology, which can connect wind power to cheap thermal storage 7. The European Commission has already initiated this transition will Ireland lead (like the UK) or follow? 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 31

32 Questions? Colleagues Here Today Mads Nerup Sune Schøning 23 March 2016 IIEA, Dublin 32