A Presentation of the 2012 Drainage Research Forum. November 20, 2012 Farmamerica, Waseca MN

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1 A Presentation of the 2012 Drainage Research Forum November 20, 2012 Farmamerica, Waseca MN 1

2 Evaluating water quality and quantity outcomes of switching from row crops to perennial biomass crops in a tile drained watershed. B tdl llph D Brent Dalzell, Ph.D Drainage Research Symposium

3 Evaluating water quality and quantity outcomes of switching from row crops to perennial biomass crops in a tile drained watershed. Brent Dalzell 1 D. Mulla 1, D. Pennington 2, S. Taff 2 and S. Polasky 2 UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA 1 Department of Soil, Water, and Climate 2 Department of Applied Economics

4 Evaluating water quality and quantity outcomes of switching from row crops to perennial biomass crops in a tile drained watershed. Funding: Minnesota Pollution Control Agency

5

6 Lake Pepin Watershed MINNESOTA NORTH DAKOTA Upper Mississippi River Basin St. Croix River Basin WISCONSIN SOUTH DAKOTA Minnesota River Basin Cannon River Basin Lake Pepin Lake Pepin Basins BASIN Cannon River Basin Minnesota River Basin St. Croix River Basin Upper Mississippi River Basin HUC Major Rivers Metro Area IOWA Feature Area ( Kilometers ) Lake Pepin Watershed 122,575 Minnesota 218,480 Lake Pepin Watershed 105,368 with in Minnesota 2 Minnesota Pollution Controal Agency

7 Sediment and phosphorus loading to Lake Pepin is occurring at an accelerated rate SCWRS Fact Sheet ; (Engstrom and Almendinger)

8

9 Lake Pepin TMDL: Kelley and Nater, What s the problem? Minnesota River has always been a disproportionate source of sediment to Lake Pepin but its role has increased: 87 to 90% of the current sediment load originates in the MN River Basin.

10 TMDL Goal The Lake Pepin TMDL is expected to require from 25 to 50% reductions of P and sediment from current levels MPCA is obligated (Minn. Stats. 114D.25) to expand the scope of its TMDL analyses: Examine the impacts of meeting TMDL goals on the area s water quality, carbon budget, habitat, and agricultural production Estimate economic benefits and costs associated with attainment of water quality standards resulting from changes in management in the Lake Pepin watershed

11 How To Meet TMDL Goals? There are many potential changes in land use and land management that could meet TMDL goals We are assessing alternative land use/management scenarios to achieve water quality improvements Developing a comprehensive assessment of the net economic benefits associated with alternative scenarios for achieving TMDL goals

12 Marine & Terrestrial Ecosystem Services natural capitol PROJECT Ecosystem services are the contributions of nature to the provision of goods and services that contribute to human well being Provisioning (food, fuel, fiber ) Regulating (carbon sequestration, water quality ) Cultural (aesthetics, recreation )

13 Marine & Terrestrial Ecosystem Services natural capitol PROJECT Recreation Aquaculture Fisheries Coastal Protection Wave Energy Aesthetic Quality Water Quality Habitat Quality Sediment retention Water purification Crop pollination Hydropower Agricultural prod n Irrigation water Commercial timber Flood control Carbon Sequestration

14 Schematic of ecosystem services research Policy decisions (1) Incentives Decisions by firms and individuals id (2) Actions Other considerations (6) Economic efficiency (4) Biophysical tradeoffs Ecosystems (3) Ecological production functions Benefits and costs (5) Valuation Ecosystem services Polasky & Segerson Annual Review of Resource Economics 1:

15 Evaluating Trade Offs Water quality improvements Biological habitat Carbon Agricultural sequestration production Alternative e scenarios/ /landscape s win win 500 m Native Veg Buffers BMP

16 Study Watershed Seven Mile Creek

17 Seven Mile Creek (spring 2008)

18 Important non field sources of sediment at the upland/ravine interface.

19 Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Plant Growth, Hydrology, Erosion, Sediment and Nutrients export

20 SWAT inputs SWAT model d l Subtitle Land Cover (NLCD) Soils SSURGO Digital Elevation Model Management Practices Weather Inputs Precipitation Temperature Wind Speed p Relative Humidity Solar Radiation

21 InVEST Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs

22 SWAT InVEST (biophysical model) (ecosystem service and valuation model) Crop Yield / Biomass Field Sources of: Sediment Phosphorus Water Market valuation SWAT model d Crops l valuation: Non Field Sources of: Sediment Phosphorus Non market valuation: Sediment Subtitle Phosphorus Carbon Sequestration

23 Alternative Scenarios and Landscape Options Conservation Tillage: Chisel and disk tillage practices are replaced with a conservation tillage practice that leaves 30% residue at time of planting. Field cultivators are still used before planting. Reduced P Fertilizer Application: Fall application of P fertilizer is reduced by 50% from current levels. Manure application is unchanged. Cropland Conversion to Grassland: Biomass is harvested. Previous tile drainage systems remain intact. Cropland Conversion to Switchgrass: Biomass is harvested. Previous tile drainage systems remain intact. Cropland Conversion to Forest: Previous tile drainage systems remain intact.

24 Alternative Scenarios and Landscape Options Conservation Tillage: Chisel and disk tillage practices are replaced with a conservation tillage practice that leaves 30% residue at time of planting. Field cultivators are still used before planting. Reduced P Fertilizer Application: Fall application of P fertilizer is reduced by 50% from current levels. Manure application is unchanged. Cropland Conversion to Grassland: Biomass is harvested. Previous tiledrainage systems remain intact. Cropland Conversion to Switchgrass: Biomass is harvested. Previous tile drainage systems remain intact. Cropland Conversion to Forest: Previous tile drainage systems remain intact.

25 Model calibration Getting the water balance right

26 Getting the water balance right 8 7 Illinois FermiLab ( ) South Dakota Brookings ( ) Grasslands 6 SWAT Minnesota ( ) 5 ET (mm/day) day of year //public.ornl.gov/ameriflux

27 Getting the water balance right 8 7 SiouxFalls ( ) FermiAg(2006,2008) Corn 6 SWAT ( ) 5 ET (mm/day) day of year //public.ornl.gov/ameriflux

28 Grasslands Corn ET comparison Data from SWAT output 6 5 per. Mov. Avg. (SWAT Grassland ( )) 5 5 per. Mov. Avg. (SWAT Corn ( )) 4 (mm/day) 3 ET day of year

29 Seven Mile Creek model outputs Site 1: 37 km 2 Site 2: 35 km 2 Water/wetlands Roads Residential/developed Forest Hay/Pasture Row Crops Site 3: 90 km 2 NLCD 2001

30 Flow watershed outlet preliminary Mean Monthly Flow (m3/sec) Monthly Precip. (mm) monthly precip Observed Flow site 3 Predicted Flow site Dec 01 Mar 02 Oct 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Apr 03 Aug 03 Nov 03 Feb 04 Jun 04 Sep 04 Dec 04 Mar 05 Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 May 06 Aug 06 Nov 06 Feb 07 Jun 07 Sep 07 Dec 07 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08

31 Sediment upland site Monthly Sediment Export (tons) ly Precip. (mm) monthly precip Observed Sediment site 1 Predicted dsediment site Month Dec 01 Jul 02 Mar 02 Oct 02 Jan 03 Apr 03 Aug 03 Nov 03 Feb 04 Jun 04 Sep 04 Dec 04 Mar 05 Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 May 06 Aug 06 Nov 06 Feb 07 Jun 07 Sep 07 Dec 07 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08

32 Sediment watershed outlet monthly precip Observed Sediment site 3 (tons) Monthly Precip. (mm) Predicted dsediment site Monthly Sed iment Export Dec 01 Mar 02 Jul 02 Oct 02 Jan 03 Apr 03 Aug 03 Nov 03 Feb 04 Jun 04 Sep 04 Dec 04 Mar 05 Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 May 06 Aug 06 Nov 06 Feb 07 Jun 07 Sep 07 Dec 07 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08

33 Important non field sources of sediment at the upland/ravine interface.

34 Phosphorus upland site monthly precip Observed TP site 1 Monthly Phosphorus Export (kg) Monthly Precip. (mm) Predicted dtp site Dec 01 Mar 02 Jul 02 Oct 02 Jan 03 Apr 03 Aug 03 Nov 03 Feb 04 Jun 04 Sep 04 Dec 04 Mar 05 Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 May 06 Aug 06 Nov 06 Feb 07 Jun 07 Sep 07 Dec 07 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08

35 Monthly Precip. (mm) 4500 Phosphorus watershed outlet monthly precip Observed TP site 3 Predicted dtp site Monthly Phosphorus Export (kg) Dec 01 Mar 02 Jul 02 Oct 02 Jan 03 Apr 03 Aug 03 Nov 03 Feb 04 Jun 04 Sep 04 Dec 04 Mar 05 Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 May 06 Aug 06 Nov 06 Feb 07 Jun 07 Sep 07 Dec 07 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08

36 Flow Sediment relationship at watershed outlet 8000 Watershed outlet 7000 monthly sed diment load ( tons) Watershed outlet Power (Watershed outlet) y = x R² = monthly mean flow (m3 sec 1)

37 8000 Comparison of observed and regression predicted monthly sediment loads. Testing the regression Regres ssion predicte ed sediment lo oad (tons) Testing the regression Linear (Testing the regression) y = x R² = Observed Monthly Sediment load (tons)

38 SWAT predicted sediment from field sources monthly precip Observed Sediment site Monthly Sediment Export (tons) Monthly Precip. (mm) 4000 Predicted Sediment site Dec 01 Mar 02 Jul 02 Oct 02 Jan 03 Apr 03 Aug 03 Nov 03 Feb 04 Jun 04 Sep 04 Dec 04 Mar 05 Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 May 06 Aug 06 Nov 06 Feb 07 Jun 07 Sep 07 Dec 07 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08

39

40 SWAT predicted phosphorus from field sources Monthly Phosphorus Export (kg) Monthly Precip. (mm) monthly precip Observed TP site 3 Predicted TP site Dec 01 Mar 02 Jul 02 Oct 02 Jan 03 Apr 03 Aug 03 Nov 03 Feb 04 Jun 04 Sep 04 Dec 04 Mar 05 Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 May 06 Aug 06 Nov 06 Feb 07 Jun 07 Sep 07 Dec 07 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08

41

42 Summary of sediment and phosphorus sources Non Field Sources (Regression predicted) Field Sources (SWAT predicted) Sediment Monthly Sediment Load (tons) Jan 02 Apr 02 Jul 02 Oct 02 Jan 03 Apr 03 Jul 03 Oct 03 Jan 04 Apr 04 Jul 04 Oct 04 Jan 05 Apr 05 Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr 06 Jul 06 Oct 06 Jan 07 Apr 07 Jul 07 Oct 07 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct Non Field Sources (Regression predicted) Phosphorus h Field Sources (SWAT predicted) Monthly P load (kg) Jan 02 Apr 02 Jul 02 Oct 02 Jan 03 Apr 03 Jul 03 Oct 03 Jan 04 Apr 04 Jul 04 Oct 04 Jan 05 Apr 05 Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr 06 Jul 06 Oct 06 Jan 07 Apr 07 Jul 07 Oct 07 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08

43 Average distribution of sediment and phosphorus sources Sediment Phosphorus field sources non field sources non field sources field sources

44 Data preparation schematic for optimization input Single model unit (HRU) SWAT predicted sediment loss Adjustment based on comparison of HRU and Reach outputs. (channel deposition) Flow sediment relationship field sediment HRU water yield non field sediment HRU data for optimization

45 Optimization Methods The quest for the Efficiency Frontier

46 SWAT InVEST (biophysical model) (ecosystem service and valuation model) Crop Yield / Biomass Field Sources of: Sediment Phosphorus Water Market valuation SWAT model d Crops l valuation: Non Field Sources of: Sediment Phosphorus Non market valuation: Sediment Subtitle Phosphorus Carbon Sequestration

47 Optimization Methods The goal of the analysis is to find land use patterns that maximize the watershed TMDL reductions for a given watershed economic return, and vice versa We combine results from the biophysical and economic models to search for these efficient land use patterns By finding the maximum TMDL reduction for a fixed economic score, and then varying the economic score over its entire potential range, we trace out the efficiency frontier

48 100% Sediment Frontier Seven Mile Creek Point A Maximum Environmental Benefit 90% Chan nge in % Sedim ment Reductio on 80% 70% Point B 50% reduction 60% 50% High Market + ES High Market Returns 40% Point C 25% reduction 30% 20% Point E Maximum Economic Benefit 10% 0% Change invalue 2011$ Millions

49 Water Budget Comparison Water Budget Baseline (row crop) Water Budget Switchgrass Surface Runoff Lateral Soil Flow Tile Flow Evapotranspiration Surface Runoff Lateral Soil Flow Tile Flow Evapotranspiration

50 Sediment Frontiers 100% 90% % Change in Sediment (rela ative to baseline) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% High Market Returns High Market + ES Low Market Returns Low Market Returns + ES 10% 0% Change in 2011$ High market returns = Avg price/cost i.e., current Low market returns = Avg price/cost i.e., historical ES = ecosystem services values best current estimates

51 Phosphorus Frontiers 100% 90% lative to base line) % Change in Ph hosphorus (re 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% High Market Returns High Market Value Low Market Returns Low Market Returns + ES 0% Change in 2011$ High market returns = Avg price/cost i.e., current Low market returns = Avg price/cost i.e., historical ES = ecosystem services values best current estimates

52 Data preparation schematic for optimization input Single model unit (HRU) SWAT predicted sediment loss Adjustment based on comparison of HRU and Reach outputs. (channel deposition) Flow sediment relationship field sediment HRU water yield non field sediment HRU data for optimization

53 Changes in streamflow climate Wang and Hejazi, WRR, 2011

54 Changes in streamflow humans Wang and Hejazi, WRR, 2011

55 Changes in streamflow total Wang and Hejazi, WRR, 2011

56 Conclusions Thank You! Market prices for crops are, by far, the strongest influence on frontier development. Under current crop prices, it is roughly five times more expensive to make land use changes to achieve water quality goals* than just 5 years ago. (*50% reduction in sediment and phosphorus) In these landscapes, it is important to account for both direct and non direct sources of pollutants in order to accurately assess the value of alternative land cover scenarios. Changing to biomass crops such as switchgrass can achieve water quality benefits through hdirect influence on surface runoff but, more importantly, by changing watershed scale water yield. Important to include value of ecosystem services in land use planning and incentives to landowners

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