Global Emission Reduction Potentials. and End-use Sectors

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1 2 nd International Workshop on Sectoral Emission Reduction Potential OECD, Paris, France, 22 nd October, 28 Global Emission Reduction Potentials and Scenarios in Energy Supply and End-use Sectors Keigo Akimoto and Fuminori Sano Systems Analysis Group Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)

2 Contents 2 Overview of the assessment framework: DNE21+ (some model assumptions were modified from the report on May 8th, in order to harmonize the model results with the statistics ti ti in 25.) CO2 emission outlook for Technology-frozen Case and Negative-Cost-Achieved (NCA) Case Regional emission reduction potentials in 22 - by cost - by cost and by sector Case studies considering differentiated responsibilities and capabilities for developed countries, major developing countries and other developing countries Conclusion Caveats

3 Assessment Framework: DNE21+ Model 3 Linear programming model (minimizing world energy system cost) Evaluation time period: 2-25 Representative ti time points: 2, 25, 21, 215, 22, 225, 23, 24, 25 World divided into 54 regions Large area countries are further divided into 3-8 regions, and the world is divided into 77 regions. Bottom-up modeling for technologies both in energy supply and demand sides (Technology improvements and innovative technologies are also considered.) Primary energy: coal, oil, natural gas, hydro&geothermal, wind, photovoltaics, biomass and nuclear power Electricity demand and supply are formulated for 4 time periods: instantaneous peak, peak, intermediate and off-peak periods Interregional trade: coal, crude oil, natural gas, syn. oil, ethanol, hydrogen, electricity and CO2 Existing facility vintages are explicitly modeled. -The model has high resolutions in regions and technologies to analyze sectoral approach. - Consistent analyses among regions and sectors can be conducted.

4 Scenario Definition 4 Case Definition Emissions Scenario where all the emission reduction measures below $/tco2 are achieved. Negative-Cost- Achieved (NCA) Case Technologyfrozen Case CO 2 intensity (CO 2 per GDP): Fixed at the level of 25 Regional GDP growth rate: Set based on the prospects by World Bank Industrial structure: Constant after 25 This case is a hypothetical scenario to understand emission reduction potential from current technology level.

5 CO2 Emissions in Baseline and Tech.-frozen Case (1/2) The global CO2 emission in 22 would increase by 86% (22.6 Gt: 8.3 Gt in developed countries; 9. Gt in major developing countries; 5.4 Gt in other developing countries) above the current level if intensity levels els were fixed at the current level el even en in the future - Large efforts are required even for achieving the emissions in NCA Case (There are large opportunities for emission reductions of negative costs.). - High emission growth in Non-annex I countries are estimated for the future.

6 CO2 Emissions in Baseline and Tech.-frozen Case (2/2) 6 BAU (Business as Usual) Scenario is uncertain and would be b/w Tech frozen Case and - BAU (Business as Usual) Scenario is uncertain and would be b/w Tech.-frozen Case and NCA Case. - Emission reduction potential from BAU depends on the definition of BAU.

7 /tco 2 ] emission re eduction [$ Marginal cost of CO Marginal costs for Annex 1 countries in 22 Unite ed States Canada EU-27 Norway y, Iceland Other Western Eu urope Japan Australia New Zealand Russia Other Annex I of FU SSR 7 Emission i reduction levels from 25 EU27: -3% from % from 25 EU27: -2% from % from 25-4% -3% -25% -2% -15% -1% -5% Note: CO 2 from fuel combustion only. GHGs reduction of -2% from 199 corresponds to -14% from The marginal cost of CO2 emission reduction of 2% and 3% from the 199 emission level in EU27 ( 17.5% and 27.8% from the 25 emission level) corresponds to around 5 and 75 US$/tCO2.

8 /yr] CO 2 emissio on reduction po otential [MtCO 2 / Regional Emission Reduction Potentials in Reduction Potentials from Sectoral Technology-frozen Case Marginal costs Emission reduction levels ted States Unit EU-27 Japan Russia China India I & OECD Annex eveloping untries Major d cou eveloping untries Other d cou 8 5-1$/tCO2 25-5$/tCO2-25$/tCO2 <$/tco2 Note: emission reduction potentials t of CCS excluded - There are large potentials for emission reductions of negative costs and relatively low- costs (<25$/tCO2) in the world regions. - Reduction potentials of United States below 25$/tCO2 have large share (43%) in those of Annex I & OECD. - Reduction potentials of China and India below 25$/tCO2 have large share (9%) in those of Major developing countries. - Countries which made continuous energy saving efforts, such as Japan, have relatively small reduction potentials of negative costs.

9 Sectoral Emission Reduction Potentials in 22 United States $/tco2 Elec.: Fuel switching among fossil fuels Elec.: Nuclear 9 EU-27 Japan Russia China India Annex I & OECD Major developing countries Other developing countries Elec.: Renewables Elec.: Energy saving Other energy conversion sectors Iron & steel Cement Paper & pulp Chemical Aluminum Other industries Transport Res. & com. sectors CO 2 emission reduction potential (MtCO 2 /yr) Note: emission reduction potentials ti of CCS excluded d

10 Key Emission Reduction Measures in 22 1 $/tco2 Power sector of Major developing countries: - Efficiency improvement of coal power plants Iron & Steel sector of all regions - Diffusion of energy saving equipment (CDQ; Coke Dry Quenching, TRT: Top pressure Recovery Turbine) - Diffusions of high-efficiency BF-BOF including next generation coke oven Residential & Commercial sector of all regions - Efficiency improvement of various appliances (space heating, lighting, etc)

11 Sectoral Emission Reduction Potentials in 22 United States EU-27 25$/tCO2 Elec.: Fuel switching among fossil fuels Elec.: Nuclear Elec.: Renewables 11 Japan Russia China India Annex I & OECD Major developing countries Other developing countries Elec.: Energy saving Other energy conversion sectors Iron & steel Cement Paper & pulp Chemical Aluminum Other industries Transport Res. & com. sectors CO 2 emission reduction potential (MtCO 2 /yr) Note: emission reduction potentials of CCS excluded d

12 Key Emission Reduction Measures in $/tCO2 Power sector of Major developing countries: - More introduction of high-efficiency gas power plants (Energy savings and fuel switching among fossil fuels) - Nuclear power expansion Power sector of Annex I & OECD Power sector of Annex I & OECD - Nuclear power expansion - Diffusion of wind power generation

13 Sectoral Emission Reduction Potentials in 22 United States 25 5$/tCO25$/tCO2 Elec.: Fuel switching among fossil fuels Elec.: Nuclear 13 EU-27 Japan Russia China India Annex I & OECD Major developing countries Other developing countries Elec.: Renewables Elec.: Energy saving Other energy conversion sectors Iron & steel Cement Paper & pulp Chemical Aluminum Other industries Transport Res. & com. sectors CO 2 emission reduction potential (MtCO 2 /yr) Note: emission reduction potentials ti of CCS excluded d - Reduction potentials at 25-5$/tCO2 are much smaller, compared to those below 25$/tCO2 - There are some potentials of nuclear and renewables (wind power) in power sector.

14 Case Studies (for year 22) 14 Case NCA Case Developed countries Major developing Other developing (Annex I & OECD) countries (MEM) countries $/tco2 $/tco $/tco2 $/tco2 5-5 $/tco2 $/tco a 25a 25 $/tco2 Macro CO2 intensity target corresponding to 25 $/tco2 $/tco b 25 $/tco2 CO2/energy intensity target for selected sectors corresponding to 25 $/tco2 Major developing countries (MEM): Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and South Africa Selected sectors: power, iron&steel, cement, aluminum and transportation sectors

15 ials [MtCO2/yr] CO2 red duction potenti Expected CO2 Emission Reduction Global l Reduction Potentials ti from Sectoral Technology-frozen Case ] Reduction potential ( 25$/tCO 2 ) in developed countries: 4.1GtCO 2 Ba aseline gative ost ieved A) Case Neg Co Ach (NCA Reduction potential (25 5$/tCO 2 ) in developed Countries: 1.GtCO 2 Cas se 25- Reduction potential ( 25$/tCO 2 ) in Major developing countries: 4.5GtCO 2 Cas se 5- Ca ase 25-25a Ca ase 25-25b Major developing countries (-25$/tCO2) Developed countries (25-5$/tCO2) Developed countries (-25$/tCO2) Other developing countries ( $/tco2) Major developing countries ( $/tco2) Developed countries ( $/tco2) Note: emission reduction potentials of CCS excluded - The reduction potential at 25 $/tco2 in developed countries is about 4.1 GtCO2, but that at $/tco2 is about 1. GtCO2. - The reduction potential at 25 $/tco2 in major developing countries is about 4.5 GtCO2. - Large-scale emission reductions of 3.8 GtCO2 could be achieved even if CO2 intensity targets for major sectors are assumed in major developing countries. 15

16 Conclusion (1/2) By introducing the two Cases, Negative-Cost-Achieved Case and Tech.-Frozen Case, the emission reduction potentials of negative costs were estimated besides those of positive costs. The global CO2 emission in 22 would increase by 86% (22.6 Gt: 8.3 Gt in developed d countries; 9Gt 9. in major developing countries; 54Gt 5.4 in other developing countries) above the current level if intensity levels were fixed at the current level even in the future. Reduction Potential below $/tco2 is large. Global potential in 22 is 11.1 GtCO2, 4.6Gt in developed countries, 4.Gt in major developing countries, and 2.5Gt in other developing countries. Potentials are mainly in the Power Sector, Transportation Sector and Iron & Steel Sector. Countries which made continuous energy saving efforts, such as Japan, have relatively small reduction potentials of negative costs.

17 Conclusion (2/2) The cooperative measures between developed and developing countries are key to large emission reductions at low cost. The emission reduction potential at the cost of 25 $/tco2 in developed countries is about 4.1 GtCO2, but that at the cost of 25 5 $/tco2 is about 1. GtCO2. On the other hand, the emission reduction potential at the cost of 25 $/tco2 in major developing countries is about 4.5 GtCO2. Large-scale emission reductions of 38GtCO2could 3.8 be achieved even if CO2 intensity targets for major sectors are assumed in major developing countries. This result is one example of the projections of emission path ways. The effort levels, e.g. marginal cost of $ 25/tCO2 etc., should be considered in further discussions. i

18 Caveats 18 Models are much simpler than real societies. There are large uncertainties ti of several assumptions, e.g., population, GDP, technology perspectives, in the model. The emission reduction potentials of CCS were excluded in this analysis a s due to large uncertainties. t es However, e the potential at the cost below 5 $/tco2 in the world is about 4.3 GtCO2 in 22 Marginal cost of emission reductions is NOT the sole indicator to fair and reasonable emission i reduction targets. t

19 Appendix 19

20 Region Divisions of DNE21+ 2 World divided into 54 regions

21 Technology Descriptions in DNE21+ (1/2) 21 Fossil fuels Coal Oil (conventional, unconv.) Gas (conventional, unconv.) Unit production cost Cumulative production Renewable energies Hydro power & geothermal Wind power Photovoltaics Biomass Unit supply cost Annual production Nuclear power Energy conv. processes (oil refinery, coal gasification, bioethanol, gas reforming, water electrolysis etc.) Electric Power generation CCS Industry Iron & steel Cement Paper & pulp Chemical (ethylene, propylene, ammonia) Aluminum Solid, liquid and gaseous fuels, and electricity <Top-down modeling> Transport vehicle Solid, liquid and gaseous fuels, and electricity <Top-down modeling> Residential & commercial Refrigerator, TV, air conditioner etc. Solid, liquid and gaseous fuels, and electricity <Top-down modeling>

22 Technology Descriptions in DNE21+ (2/2) An Example for High Energy Efficiency Process in Iron & Steel Sector 22 Coal for steel sector 24.1 GJ 23.8 GJ 22.5 GJ Type III: Current coke oven Recycling of waste plastics and tires.25 GJ Waste plastics and tires.25 GJ Type IV: Next-generation coke oven Blast furnace, sintering furnace, BF, BOF, casting, and hot rolling Type III and IV: High-eff. Intersection (Sophisticated steelmaking process with many energy saving facilities including CDQ, TRT, COG and LDG recovery) (Larger scale capacity plant) Electricity 455 kwh 91 kwh Electricity (grid) Carbon capture from BFG Utility 4.1 GJ 111 kwh Power generation facility 98GJ.98 Process gases recovery 8.6 GJ Steel product derived from BOF steel 1 ton of crude steel equivalent for each type Compressed CO 2.6 tco 2 Heavy oil BF: blast furnace, BOF: basic oxygen furnace, CDQ: Coke dry quenching, TRT: top-pressure recovery turbine, COG: coke oven gas, LDG: oxygen furnace gas

23 Comparisons of Energy Efficiency (1/2) 23 production of cs) ption per unit p teel (toe/ton-c rgy consump crude s Ene US BF-BOF Iron & steel (2) scrap-eaf Canad da UK Franc ce ny Germa Japa an Austra alia Kore ea Note: Electricity is converted by using 1MWh=.86/.33toe. Source: Estimates by RITE from IEA (26), IISI (25) etc. Chin na Note: Electricity is converted by using 1MWh=.86/.33toe. Waste biomass use is excluded in the energy efficiency. Source: Estimates by RITE from Humphreys and Mahasenan (22), IEA (26) etc. duction n per unit pro Energy consumptio Ind dia Russ sia US toe/ton-clinker toe/ton-cement Canada UK Cement (2) France Germany Japan Australia Korea China India Russia

24 Comparisons of Energy Efficiency (2/2) 24 Coal Oil and Gas Average Efficiency Power sectors (25) Including CHP Source: IEA, 27 Efficiency of power generat tion (% LHV) US Canada UK France Germany Japan Australia Korea China Rus India sia 35 3 Fossil average Total Average CO2 intensity output CO22 emissions per electricity (gco2/kwh) 5 US Canada UK France Germany Japan Australia Korea China India Russia

25 Assumptions of DNE21+ (1/3) 25 Population: UN26 Medium Scenario 1 lation (millio on people) Popu Latin America Africa Middle East Other developing Asia India China Transition economies OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD N. America Year

26 Assumptions of DNE21+ (2/3) 26 GDP Y23: Based on the prospects by World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 27 Managing the Next Wave of Globalization (26) 14 Y23 25: Based on IPCC SRES B2 (2) GDP (tril llion US$ at 2 prices and ex. rate s) Latin America Africa Middle East Other developing Asia India China Transition economies OECD Pacific OECD Europe 9 OECD N. America 8 OECD N. America Year GDP per capita (Y2 5=1) OECD Europe OECD Pacific Transition economies China India Other developing Asia Middle East Africa 1 Latin America Year

27 Assumptions of DNE21+ (3/3) 27 )_ ) Crude st teel production (1 粗鋼生 2 millio on 産量 ton ( 億トン per year) / 年 ) Statistics 統計値 China India US Japan Korea Russia Germany UK Spain Iron & Steel (Crude steel production) 1 Brazil Year Indonesia Cement (Cement production) 統計値 Statistics China India Cement pro oduction (1 セメント生産量 2 million to on per ( 億トン year) / 年 ) Year US Japan Korea Russia Germany UK Spain Brazil Indonesia

28 Comparisons of Emission Reduction Potentials between DNE21+ and IPCC AR4 28 Y22 Y23 Note: emission reduction potentials of CCS excluded 2 $/tco2 5 $/tco2 1 $/tco2 CO2 emissions (Y2= =1) Y2 Fixed CO2 intensity in 25 Baseline ($/tco2) 25$/tCO2 in 22; 1$/tCO2 in 23 5$/tCO2 in 22; 2$/tCO2 in 23 1$/tCO2 in 22; 3$/tCO2 in 23 Y2 A1B: $/tco2 B2: $/tco2 A1B: 2$/tCO2 B2: 2$/tCO2 A1B: 5$/tCO2 B2: 5$/tCO2 A1B: 1$/tCO2 B2: 1$/tCO2 RITE DNE21+ IPCC AR4 Bottom-up (Table TS.15)

29 Comparisons of MAC in 25 between DNE21+ and IEA ETP 29 IEA ETP28 IEA ETP Baseline: 62 GtCO2 RITE DNE21+ (Oct. 28) The definition iti of Baseline by RITE RITE DNE21+ Baseline: Marginal cost = $/tco2 46 GtCO2 Marginal cost [$/tco 2 ] ppm (31GtCO2; Reduction of 15 GtCO2 from Baseline) 86 45ppm (23GtCO2; Reduction of 23 GtCO2 from Baseline) by 5 (13 GtCO2; Reduction of 33 GtCO2 from Baseline)

30 Expected CO2 Emission Reduction (2/3) 3 Reduction Potentials by sector from Sectoral Technology-frozen Case Annex 1 & OECD potentials [M MtCO 2 /yr] CO 2 reduction Others Automobile Aluminium Cement Iron & steel Elec.: Energy saving 2 Elec.: Renewables Elec.: Nuclear Base eline Case 25- Case 5- Case a Case b Elec. Fuel switching among fossil fuels Note: emission reduction potentials of CCS excluded

31 Expected CO2 Emission Reduction (3/3) 31 Reduction Potentials by sector from Sectoral Technology-frozen Case Major developing countries CO 2 reduction potentials [M tco 2 /yr] Others Automobile Aluminium Cement Iron & steel Elec.: Energy saving Elec.: Renewables Elec.: Nuclear Base eline Case 25- Case 5- Case a Case b Elec. Fuel switching among fossil fuels Note: emission reduction potentials of CCS excluded

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