NCHRP PROJECT : ESTIMATING THE LIFE-CYCLE COST OF INTERSECTION DESIGNS. Kittelson & Associates, Inc.

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "NCHRP PROJECT : ESTIMATING THE LIFE-CYCLE COST OF INTERSECTION DESIGNS. Kittelson & Associates, Inc."

Blaze Willis
6 years ago
Views:

1 NCHRP PROJECT : ESTIMATING THE LIFE-CYCLE COST OF INTERSECTION DESIGNS Kittelson & Associates, Inc.

2 NCHRP Project Project Objective and Overview Principles of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Overview of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Tool Demonstration of Tool and Case Studies Conclusions

3 Life-Cycle Costs in Practice 3 Current intersection evaluation practices vary widely by jurisdiction. Nearly all agencies consider the upfront initial capital improvement costs. Operation and maintenance costs are difficult for agencies to quantify. Some agencies consider the societal costs of crashes in evaluating alternatives, though these costs are typically used as informative values. Overall a desire to better compare life-cycle costs but no clear direction or established procedure.

4 NCHRP Project : Project 4 Objective Develop a spreadsheet-based tool for comparing life-cycle costs of alternative designs for new and existing intersections Demonstrate the application of the tool to range of options: Stop-controlled Traffic signal Roundabout Innovative designs

5 Project Team 5 Kittelson & Associates, Inc. Lee Rodegerdts, P.E., Principal Investigator Team: Wayne Kittelson, David Reinke, Joe Bessman, Matt Kittelson & Julia Knudsen ECONorthwest Carl Batten and Mike Wilkerson Write Rhetoric Technical Editing Danica Rhoades

6 NCHRP Project Panel and Staff 6 Rick Collins Panel Chair Gilbert Chlewicki Matthew Enders Jason Firman William Lambert John Powell Edward James Smaglik Jin Wang Richard Cunard, TRB Hilary Isebrands, FHWA Ray Derr, NCHRP staff

7 Products Available Online 7 TRB website Contents Final Report Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Tool Six Case Studies Overview presentation (similar to this webinar)

8 NCHRP Project Project Objective and Overview Principles of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Overview of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Tool Demonstration of Tool and Case Studies Conclusions

9 Why B-C Analysis? 9 Consistent framework for comparing outcomes Assign dollar values to monetizable outcomes Values of outcomes based on market values Estimate present value of project costs over entire project lifetime Compare outcomes over time by discounting future costs Results are understandable Decision-makers General public

10 How to Do B-C Analysis 10 Select a base case For base case and alternatives: Calculate cost streams by year over life of alternative Convert costs to present value using discount rate Compute results Net present value Benefit-cost ratio Rate of return (seldom used)

11 Benefit-Cost Analysis 11 All alternatives are referenced to base case Benefits = reduction in user & nonuser costs compared to base case; e.g.: Travel time savings Crash reductions Emission reductions

12 Computing Outcomes 12 Net present value (NPV) = PV Benefits PV Costs + PV Salvage Benefit-cost ratio = PV Benefits PV Costs - PV Salvage

13 Computing Net Present Value 13 Future year costs converted to equivalent present year costs using a discount rate Discount rate reflects tradeoffs between current and future costs and benefits Discount rate = marginal productivity of capital + risk factor Typical discount rate for long-term public projects: ~4%

14 Compare Different Alternatives 14 Compare Types of transportation alternatives Scale Lifetime Types of policies Examples Supply-side vs demand side Capacity expansion vs operations management Single intersection vs corridor Short-term quick-fix vs intersection redesign Transportation vs other societal investments

15 Costing Outcomes: Costs 15 Outcome Planning & construction Operations & Maintenance Examples Planning cost Engineering cost Right of way Equipment Lighting Repaving Utility costs

16 Costs 16 Agency costs Agency costs should be familiar and relatively easy for agencies to estimate Unit costs may vary considerably between regions. We supply defaults based on national averages, but agencies likely may want to override. Guidance is focused on definitions and what to include/exclude

17 Costing Outcomes: Benefits 17 Outcome Examples Travel time Cost per hour by user type Reliability Safety Emissions Cost per standard deviation in travel time (σσ TT ); options pricing Cost/crash by type Cost/ton of pollutant by type Criteria pollutants Greenhouse gases

18 NCHRP Project Project Objective and Overview Principles of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Overview of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Tool Demonstration of Tool and Case Studies Conclusions

19 LCCET Overview 19 Travel demand model Link volumes Vehicles Passengers Operations analysis Travel time/delay Post processing Reliability Emissions Crashes LCCET Calculations User inputs Calculate benefits & costs Outputs NPV, B/C PV by category Costs & lifetime Capital O&M Lifetime of each alt. Analysis parameters Value of time Emissions costs Unit crash costs Discount rate

20 Addressing Different Lifespans - 20 Overview The LCCET treats life cycle as a variable to provide flexibility to adapt to the intersection and analysis context and analysis needs. Common analysis life cycle is likely to range between 20 and 40 years. Consider terminal and salvage values, when analysis period is shorter than the useful intersection life.

21 Addressing Varying Spatial Scopes 21 Identify the spatial and geometric layout of each alternative. Identify influence limits for each of the concepts. Back of queue Start of deceleration Overlay these influence limits, and establish a cordon line based on the most distant influence limit of the alternatives being considered. Record performance metrics for all vehicles from the time they enter to the time they exit this cordon limit for each of the concepts.

22 Addressing Varying Spatial Scopes 22 Unsaturated Conditions

23 Addressing Varying Spatial Scopes 23 Unsaturated Conditions

24 Addressing Varying Spatial Scopes 24 Unsaturated Conditions Cordon line

25 Addressing Varying Spatial Scopes 25 Oversaturated Conditions Cordon line must encompass network area where queuing exists or traffic volume/pattern changes occur. Microsimulation may be required. Separate consideration of Cordon Area and Modeling Area. System and Context Considerations Consider the area beyond the study intersection (e.g. land use, signal coordination, nearby failing intersections, etc.)

26 Addressing New Intersection Types 26 Use of the cordon methodology allows the LCCET to address new intersection types Assumes that all significant differences among alternatives are captured within the cordon and can be estimated within the cordon Life-cycle costs for new intersection types may be constrained by available capital and maintenance cost estimates or crash predictions

27 NCHRP Project Project Objective and Overview Principles of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Overview of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Tool Demonstration of Tool and Case Studies Conclusions

28 Case Study Overview 28 Case Study Location/Agency Base Case Alternatives Eagle Road/State Street Ada County Highway District Eagle, Idaho Powell Butte Hwy/Neff Road Deschutes County Bend, Oregon Jackson School Road/Scotch Church Road/Meek Road Washington County Hillsboro, Oregon SR-123 (San Pablo Ave)/Bancroft Way Caltrans Alameda County, California US 40/MD 213 Maryland State Highway Administration Cecil County, Maryland Existing Signalized Intersection Existing Two-Way Stop Controlled Existing Offset Sidestreet Stop Controlled Existing Two-Way Stop Controlled Existing Signalized Intersection 6 Hypothetical Example All-Way Stop Controlled Multilane Roundabout Enhanced Signal Two Offset Intersections Single-lane Roundabout Single-lane Roundabout Signalized Intersection Signalized Intersection Median U-Turn Intersection Signalized Intersection Single-lane Roundabout

29 29 Example Case Study #1 Intersection Alternatives Evaluation Eagle Road/State Street intersection Ada County Highway District (ACHD) Eagle, Idaho Purpose: Develop a prioritized implementation plan identifying a preferred configuration and concept design for the Eagle Road/State Street intersection. Intersection alternatives considered Alternative 0: Base case (existing signalized intersection) Alternative 1: Roundabout (construction of a multilane roundabout) Alternative 2: Enhanced signalized intersection (expansion of the intersection as a signalized intersection)

30 Example Case Study #1 30 Alternative 1: Multilane Roundabout Alternative 2: Enhanced signalized intersection

31 Example Case Study #1 31 Alternative: Base Case Roundabout Enhanced Signal Base Analysis Year 2014 Future Analysis Year 2035 Average Annual Base 38,000 Daily Traffic (veh/d) Future 67,000 Total Entering Volume (Base) (veh/h) Total Entering Volume (Future) (veh/h) Annual Trucks Transit/Bicycles/Pedestrians Delay (Base) (s/veh) Delay (Future) (s/veh) Base Year Safety Performance AM 1,553 PM 2,117 Midday 2,164 AM 2,671 PM 3,535 Midday 3,484 Base 2% Future 4% Not considered AM PM Midday AM PM Midday PDO Crashes Injury Crashes Fatal Crashes PDO Crashes Future Year Safety Injury Crashes Performance Fatal Crashes Planning/Engineering Costs $0 $622,819 $687,714 Right-of-Way Costs $0 $811,000 $474,554 Construction Costs $0 $3,111,000 $3,438,572 Net Present Value $131,724,932 $76,412,191 $131,099,984 Benefits/Costs n/a

32 Example Case Study #1 32 Roundabout alternative results in the least cost. Enhanced signalized intersection alternative results in relatively small savings. An increased likelihood of crashes Modest savings in delay.

33 Example Case Study #5 33 Conceptual Design and Analysis US 40/MD 213 Maryland State Highway Administration (SHA) Elkton, Maryland Purpose Relieve congestion and improve intersection safety Candidate Safety Improvement Location Substantial number of crashes

34 Example Case Study #5 34 Intersection Alternatives Alternative 0: Base case (existing offset T-intersections) Alternative 1: Median U-turn intersection

35 Example Case Study #5 35 Determining the Delay at a Traditional Intersection

36 Example Case Study #5 36 Determining the Delay at a MUT Intersection

37 Example Case Study #5 37 Three components make up a vehicle s travel time within the cordon line. Running time Geometric delay Control delay Vehicles must be tracked between the same entry and exit points on the cordon line. TTTTTTTTTTTT tttttttt = rrrrrrrrrrrrrr tttttttt + gggggggggggggggggg dddddddddd + cccccccccccccc dddddddddd

38 Example Case Study #5 38 Comparison of Travel Time Movement PM Volume (vph) Running Time (s) Existing Median U-turn Geometric Delay (s) Existing Median U-turn Control Delay (s) Existing Median U-turn Travel Time (s) Existing Median U-turn EBL EBT EBR WBL WBT WBR NBL NBT NBR SBL SBT SBR Weighted Average

39 Example Case Study #5 39 Alternative: Base Case Median U-Turn Base Analysis Year 2008 Future Analysis Year 2035 Average Annual Base 40,045 Daily Traffic (veh/d) Future 48,054 Total Entering AM 3,304 Vehicles (Base) PM 4,130 (veh/h) Midday n/a Total Entering AM n/a Vehicles (Future) PM 4,956 (veh/h) Midday n/a Annual Trucks Base 5% Future 5% Transit/Bicycles/Pedestrians Delay (Base) (s/veh) Delay (Future) (s/veh) Base Year Safety Performance Future Year Safety Performance n/a AM n/a n/a PM Midday n/a n/a AM n/a n/a PM Midday n/a n/a PDO Crashes n/a n/a Injury Crashes n/a n/a Fatal Crashes n/a n/a PDO Crashes n/a n/a Injury Crashes n/a n/a Fatal Crashes n/a n/a Planning/Engineering Costs n/a n/a Right-of-way Costs n/a n/a Construction Costs n/a n/a Net Present Value $5,560,511 $4,527,909 Benefits/Costs Estimated capital costs not included in analysis

40 Example Case Study #5 40 Median U-turn intersection alternative would cost nearly $1 million less than the existing base alternative over the life of the intersection. Auto passenger time cost parameter

41 NCHRP Project Project Objective and Overview Principles of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Overview of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Tool Demonstration of Tool and Case Studies Conclusions

42 Conclusions 42 Converts units of various metrics into Net Present Value Provide the user with national average values for various costs while allowing calibration Uses cordon concept Allows maximum flexibility to analyze a range of conditions: Single intersection Complex intersection or interchange Series of intersections Subarea or area Assumes that all significant differences among alternatives are captured within the cordon and can be estimated within the cordon

43 Conclusions (cont.) 43 LCCET Potential Applications Analysis of alternative designs for a single intersection/interchange or set of intersections/interchanges Programming/prioritizing/funding decisions across a large area Alternatives evaluations for corridors and subareas Signal retiming study along corridor Intersection maintenance/replacement/upgrade

44 NCHRP Project Questions?

The New Highway Capacity Manual 6 th Edition It s Not Your Father s HCM

The New Highway Capacity Manual 6 th Edition It s Not Your Father s HCM Tom Creasey, PE, PhD Principal, Stantec Consulting Services Inc. Chair, TRB Highway Capacity and Quality of Service Committee Presented