Shell Scenarios and Strategic Decision Making. Jeremy Bentham, VP Global Business Environment, Strategy and Planning Royal Dutch Shell
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1 Shell Scenarios and Strategic Decision Making Jeremy Bentham, VP Global Business Environment, Strategy and Planning Royal Dutch Shell 1
2 Warning Uncertainties ahead! This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as anticipate, believe, could, estimate, expect, intend, may, plan, objectives, outlook, probably, project, will, seek, target, risks, goals, should and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentations, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for the Group s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserve estimates; (f) loss of market and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory effects arising from recategorisation of reserves; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell s 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2011 (available at and ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forwardlooking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. Copyright of Shell International BV 20 th of September
3 Uncertainty is just part of Reality As we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns - the ones we don't needs know we exploration don't know. as well as analysis Copyright of Shell International BV 20 th of September
4 Discontinuities are often not obvious Well informed people know it is impossible to transmit voice over waves and that were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value. Editorial in The Boston Post c.1865 I think there is a market for about 5 computers. Thomas J. Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943 There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home. Ken Olsen, President of DEC, 1977 $10 per barrel [oil] might actually be too optimistic. We may be heading for $5. Economist magazine, 1999
5 Uncertainty & Discontinuities are inevitable; Scenarios help us wrestle with possible futures The Present The Path The Future FORECAST Current Realities (mental models) Multiple Paths Alternative Future Images SCENARIOS by opening a process of exploration and shaping
6 We have all been trained in deterministic approaches, e.g. in formulating assumptions 1 why? why? why? why? etc. why? 1 2 why? why? why? Connections, Interpretations, Storyline..? etc.... but this can only ever take us part of the way... 6
7 Why we use scenarios To improve decisions & test strategies To recognise threats and opportunities more quickly To prepare leaders to anticipate and manage uncertainty? To provide balance between long term and short term considerations Success in the future depends not on the success of future decisions but on the future success of decisions taken today
8 Example: Shell energy scenarios National supply focus and reactive change Emerging coalitions and accelerated change
9 People are at the heart of different outcomes individually and collectively... Scramble Blueprints Complexity is too difficult People choose the easiest option for them Fear is not enough to change behaviours Adapt rather than change Delegating action to the state despite known limitations Shared interest, not altruism Trial, error, collaboration and copying success Adoption through mainstreaming Success is emergent, not centrally driven initially Coalitions shape state policy
10 Comparing the scenarios: energy mix exajoule per year (energy source) Scramble Blueprints Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar Wind Other Renewables Business as Usual Source: Shell Copyright International of Shell BV International and Energy BV Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Countries OECD/IEA th of September
11 Detailed & consistent quantification EJ / year (Energy source) Total Primary Energy USA China Crude oil Natural gas Coal Nuclear fission Solar Biomass Other Renewable Wind Source: Shell International BV and Energy Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Countries OECD/IEA 2006 Copyright of Shell International BV 20 th of September
12 Also at sector level e.g. what this means for Transport Fuel Liquid-based fuels Electric vehicles 200 EJ per year 200 EJ per year Liquid fuels fossil- derived Gaseous hydrocarbon fuels Biofuels Electricity # Source: Shell Copyright International of Shell BV International and Energy BV Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Countries OECD/IEA 2006 # includes 20 th of hydrogen September 2010 vehicles12
13 Scenario signals some past examples " 1970s oil price spikes, stagflation " 1980s socio-political developments & questioning longevity of Soviet Union, possibility of oil-price collapse " 1990s environmental issues, globalisation & technology, fertile ground for terror backlash " 2000s: " Re-emergence of State prominence " Energy demand, supply & environmental hard truths " Fundamental uncertainty on pace of socio-political response " Significance of natural gas potential " Recession and Recovery dynamics Danger Focus on a supposed most likely outlook 13
14 Recent decisions with Scenario fingerprints " Gas developments - Pearl GTL, Unconventional Gas outside North America, Floating LNG, LNG in Transport " Iraq entry, Raizen Biofuels Joint Venture, Enhanced Oil Recovery investments " Refining and marketing divestments " Carbon capture & storage project in Canada " Gulf of Mexico front foot response " Water-Energy-Food nexus raised into strategic foreground " Improved terms for project costs " Responses to Recession & Recovery dynamics 14
15 Scenarios set a context for specific decisions Specific Reviews/Outlooks Regular Signals/Signposts Strategic Planning Portfolio choices Portfolio & Project Evaluation Assumptions Shell Scenarios Competitive Intelligence Primary data sources & Subject-Matter-Expert networks
16 Copyright of Shell International BV 20 th of September
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