ANALYSIS OF WATER DEMAND AND CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR

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1 To: Emily Stahl Company: City of Guelph From: Sam Ziemann Our File: Cc: Wayne Galliher, Bill Gauley Date: 6 April 2016 Subject: The contents of this memorandum are intended only for the recipient. Any other use and/or reproduction without prior consent of C3 Water Inc. is strictly prohibited. ANALYSIS OF WATER DEMAND AND CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR C3 WATER INC. 6 April 2016 VERSION DATE DESCRIPTION OF REVISIONS REVISED BY REVIEWED BY 1 January 27, 2016 Draft Water Demand and Consumption by Sector Bill Gauley Sam Ziemann 2 March 11, 2016 Draft Water Demand and Consumption by Sector 3 April 6, 2016 Final Water Demand and Consumption by Sector Bill Gauley Andrea Williams Bill Gauley Andrea Williams Sam Ziemann Sam Ziemann Breslau ON N0B 1M0 i

2 Table of Contents Introduction Draft Water Supply Master Plan Projections and Targets...3 Historical Water Production and Demand Rates...6 Historical Customer Sector Demand Rates Residential Customers Low Density Residential Sector Spatial Trends in Low Density Residential Sector Consumption by Vintage of homes ( ) Multi-family Residential Sector Medium Density Residential Sector Spatial Trends in Medium Density Residential Consumption by Vintage of homes ( ) High Density Residential Sector Spatial Trends in High Density Residential Consumption by Vintage of homes ( ) Industrial, Commercial, Institutional Customers Consumption by Industry Top 100 Consumers Non-revenue Water Summary References Breslau ON N0B 1M0 ii

3 INTRODUCTION The City Guelph is a vibrant and growing community. Its current (2015) population of approximately 135,800 is expected to grow by 37 percent to 186,300 by Typically, municipal water demands rise in concert with a growing population, however, Guelph one of the largest communities in Canada reliant on a groundwater as a source of municipal water supply has been proactive in the field of water efficiency for almost 20 years and thus does not see the same rise in demand with population as other communities. In 2006, Guelph City Council approved a Water Supply Master Plan (Master Plan). This Master Plan identified a number of preferred options including: reclaiming water supply capacity and optimizing the use of the City s water supply infrastructure; employing enhanced water conservation and efficiency strategies; mitigating distribution-based water loss; and conducting education/policy/rate-based reviews. The 2006 Water Supply Master Plan, recognized that sustainable growth in the City was contingent upon the success of aggressive water conservation and efficiency programs, especially in the short term. The 2006 Water Supply Master Plan projected that the baseline (i.e., without water efficiency) average annual day production rate would increase from 53,000 cubic metres per day in 2006 to about 73,700 cubic metres per day in 2025 unless the City successfully implemented a number of water efficiency measures. The 2007 Water Supply Master Plan also identified the following time-based average annual day water production reduction targets: Reduction of 10 percent (5,300 cubic metres per day) in average day water use by 2010; Reduction of 15 percent (7,950 cubic metres per day) in average day water use by 2017; and Reduction of 20 percent (10,600 cubic metres per day) in average day water use by Figure 1 illustrates the 2007 Water Supply Master Plan projected baseline production rates (which includes no water conservation or efficiency) and target production rates (includes water conservation and efficiency) from 2006 to 2025, as well as the actual water production rates in the City between 2006 and As seen in Figure 1, actual production rates in Guelph were substantially lower than the target rates identified in the 2006 Water Supply Master Plan. The lower than expected production rates were the result of three main factors: the effectiveness of the City s water efficiency measures and programs, the recent natural shift in the plumbing fixture and appliance marketplace towards the development and sale of more efficient models, and a growing public awareness of the need to use our natural resources efficiently. Breslau ON N0B 1M0 1

4 Figure 1: 2006 Water Supply Master Plan Projections and Targets and Actual Production ( ) Breslau ON N0B 1M0 2

5 2014 DRAFT WATER SUPPLY MASTER PLAN PROJECTIONS AND TARGETS Baseline water production projections and demand reduction targets were revised in the 2014 Guelph City Council approved Draft Water Supply Master Plan to reflect the lower production rates being experienced by the City. The 2014 Water Supply Master Plan was initiated to build upon previous work completed and take into account more recent studies and work activities over the past six years. The 2014 Water Supply Master Plan projected that baseline production rates (i.e., without water efficiency or conservation) would increase from 48,253 cubic metres per day in 2013 to 69,872 cubic metres per day in The 2014 Water Supply Master Plan also set a target of reducing this projected 2038 rate by 9,147 cubic metres per day to only 60,725 cubic metres per day a reduction of about 13 percent in average day water use. The 2014 Water Supply Master Plan projections and targets were developed based on expected population growth in the City, residential water demands, Industrial/Commercial/Institutional water demands (based on equivalent population values), and non-revenue water volumes. Figure 2 and Table 1 present the 2014 Water Supply Master Plan baseline and target values based on achieving a 13 percent reduction in residential, employment, and non-revenue water demands between 2013 and Note that, because of the growing population, the overall average daily demand for the City, as well as demands for all sub-sectors, will continue to increase under both the baseline (no efficiency and conservation) and target savings scenarios. When demands are presented on a per capita basis it can be seen that the 2014 Water Supply Master Plan is targeting declining demands overall and for all sub-sectors (Figure 3 and Table 2). Note that for illustrative purposes a 13 percent reduction has been shown for all sub-sectors; in reality, more savings may be achieved in some sub-sectors and less savings in others. The key target is an overall reduction in production rates of 9,147 cubic metres per day or 13 percent in average day water use by Breslau ON N0B 1M0 3

6 Figure 2: 2014 Draft Water Supply Master Plan Projections and Targets Table 1: 2014 Draft Water Supply Master Plan Production Projections and Targets, Cubic Metres per Day Year Residential Employment Non-revenue Water Total Baseline Target Baseline Target Baseline Target Baseline Target ,536 23,536 19,059 19,059 5,658 5,658 48,253 48, ,843 24,842 21,100 20,283 6,175 5,936 53,118 51, ,150 26,152 23,140 21,497 6,691 6,216 57,981 53, ,293 27,246 25,803 23,207 7,208 6,483 63,304 56, ,144 28,272 27,690 24,354 7,628 6,709 67,462 59, ,555 29,162 28,413 24,693 7,903 6,868 69,871 60,724 Breslau ON N0B 1M0 4

7 Figure 3: 2014 Water Supply Master Plan Per Capita Projections and Targets Table 2: 2014 Draft Water Supply Master Plan Water Production Projections and Targets, Litres per Capita Year Residential Employment Non-revenue Water Total Baseline Target Baseline Target Baseline Target Baseline Target Breslau ON N0B 1M0 5

8 HISTORICAL WATER PRODUCTION AND DEMAND RATES The City s average annual day water production targets are sought from both customer demands and water that is produced but not utilized by customers (e.g., water lost through leakage). Since 2006, customer water demands (employment and residential) have accounted for about 85 percent of total water production volumes. Therefore, only about 15 percent of all water produced by the City is not used by its customers (Table 3). Water that is produced but not billed to customers is referred to as non-revenue water. Non-revenue water includes physical losses such as water used for firefighting, mains flushing, system leakage, un-metered municipal uses, such as commission of new infrastructure, as well as, apparent losses resulting from metering or accounting inaccuracies. Table 3: Actual Production versus Actual Demand, Year Actual Production, Cubic Metres per Day Actual Demand, Cubic Metres per Day Percent Demands, Percent ,387 43, ,005 43, ,492 40, ,607 39, ,442 38, ,578 39, ,244 38, ,379 38, ,463 37, If we breakdown the production and consumption values, between 2006 and 2014 approximately 51 percent of the water produced was used by residential customers, 34 percent by industrial, commercial and institutional customers, and about 15 percent was attributed to non-revenue water (Figure 4 and Table 4). Breslau ON N0B 1M0 6

9 Table 4: Historical Water Production, 2006 to 2014 Year Production, Cubic Metres per Day Figure 4: Historical Water Production, Residential Demand, Cubic Metres per Day Industrial/Commercial /Institutional Demand, Cubic Metres per Day Non-revenue Water, Cubic Metres per Day ,387 25,752 17,873 7, ,005 26,053 17,134 7, ,492 25,013 15,486 7, ,607 23,138 15,982 7, ,442 22,635 16,079 5, ,578 22,243 17,217 6, ,244 23,233 14,946 7, ,379 22,714 15,612 6, ,463 22,373 15,374 7,716 Water production rates in Guelph have declined since 2006 despite the growing population. Between 2006 and 2014 the City s production rates declined by approximately 852 cubic metres per day per year (based on linear trend) and water demand (consumption) rates have declined by only slightly less at 725 cubic metres per day per year (Figure 5 and Table 5). Note that when linear trend lines are included in Figures in this report, the equation and R 2 value for the trend line is displayed. The R 2 value is a statistical measure of how close the data are to the fitted regression line - the higher the R 2 value the better the fit with a value of 1.0 indicating a perfect fit. Breslau ON N0B 1M0 7

10 Figure 5: Historical Water Production and Water Demand Rates Breslau ON N0B 1M0 8

11 Table 5: Historical Water Production Values, Cubic Metres per Day Year Population Average Annual Day Demand Production Average Annual Day Demand Consumption Peak Day ,040 51,387 43,626 61, ,766 51,005 43,188 63, ,491 48,492 40,499 58, ,491 46,607 39,120 55, ,093 44,442 38,714 53, ,000 45,578 39,460 64, ,250 45,244 38,179 58, ,250 44,379 38,326 52, ,726 45,463 37,748 52,614 While peak day demands also declined by an average of 983 cubic metres per day per year during this time, peak demands are highly variable from year to year based on local weather conditions making them difficult to accurately predict in the future based on past results. Peak day demands generally occur after an extended period of hot and dry weather and are largely due to an increase in irrigation demands. While an unusually hot or dry summer season would be expected to produce a high peak day demand, a summer with typical weather conditions (or even an overall cool and wet summer) can also produce high peak day demands if there is a twoor three-week period of drought over the entire May to September irrigation season. For example, Table 6 presents the peak day water demand for the years 2006 to 2014, along with the mean May to September temperature and total May to September precipitation in millimetres 1. Note that there is little difference in mean summer temperatures for these years (from a low of 15.3 degrees Celsius in 2009 to a high of 17.3 degrees Celsius in 2012) and the variation in mean temperature values does not appear to have a strong correlation to peak day demands. Table 6: Historical Peak Day Demand, Mean Temperature and Total Precipitation from May to September Year Peak Day Demand, Million Litres per Day Mean Temperature, degrees Celsius Total Precipitation, Millimetres Weather data from Region of Waterloo International Airport. Breslau ON N0B 1M0 9

12 For example, as presented in Figure 6, one of the lowest peak day demands during this period occurred in 2010 at 53.7 million litres per day with a mean summer temperature of 16.9 degrees Celsius. While the highest peak day demand during this period occurred in 2011 at 64.4 million litres per day, the mean summer temperature in this year was also 16.9 degrees Celsius. In 2012 the peak day demand fell to 58.8 million litres per day but the mean summer temperature actually increased to 17.3 degree Celsius. Figure 6: Historical Peak Day Demand versus Mean Summer Temperature While there is a significant variation in total summer season precipitation between 2006 and 2014 (from a low of 292 millimetres in 2012 to a high of 568 millimetres in 2013), the correlation between total summer precipitation and peak day demands is not immediately apparent. For example, as presented in Figure 7, the peak day demand in both 2007 and 2011 was about 64 million litres per day, but 2007 only received 297 millimetres of rain between May and September while 2011 received 467 millimetres. Similarly, 2013 and 2014 had almost identical peak day demands but 2013 received 568 millimetres of rain while 2014 only received 339 millimetres. Breslau ON N0B 1M0 10

13 Figure 7: Historical Peak Day Demand versus Total Summer Precipitation The real impact of improved water and conservation efficiency in the City is best illustrated by considering per capita demands. As presented in Figure 8 and Table 7, per capita rates declined for all aspects of water production between 2006 and 2014 average annual day, average winter day, average summer day, and peak day. Average annual day production rates declined by an average of 12.3 litres per capita per day per year (based on linear trend), winter day rates (reflecting indoor use) declined by 12.0 litres per capita per day per year, summer day rates declined by 12.6 litres per capita per day per year, and peak day rates declined by 14.4 litres per capita per day per year. Breslau ON N0B 1M0 11

14 Figure 8: Historical per Capita Water Production Rates Table 7: Historical Water Production Rates, Litres per Capita per Day Year Winter Day Summer Day Average Annual Day Peak Day Breslau ON N0B 1M0 12

15 While average annual day water production rates declined by an average of 12.3 litres per capita per day per year (based on linear trend) between 2006 and 2014, average annual day demand rates declined by only 10.4 litres per capita per day during the same period (Figure 9) with the highest rate of demand decline occurring between 2006 and When only the years 2009 to 2014 are considered the decline in per capita production rates was 6.3 litres per capita per year and the decline in per capita demand rates was very similar at 6.6 litres per capita per year (Figure 10), i.e., the rate of annual decline of production and demand is lower now than it was a decade ago. The following sections outline water demands in the various customer sectors. Figure 9: Guelph Historical Values; Population, Gross per Capita Production, Capita Demand ( ) and Gross per Breslau ON N0B 1M0 13

16 Figure 10: Guelph Historical Values; Population, Gross per Capita Production, Capita Demand ( ) and Gross per Breslau ON N0B 1M0 14

17 HISTORICAL CUSTOMER SECTOR DEMAND RATES As presented in Section 3, overall water production, demand, and per capita demand values have declined in the City since By evaluating the demands for each customer sector individually it was possible to identify the demand trend for low density residential customers, medium and high density residential customers, and industrial, commercial, and institutional customers. Residential Customers Residential customer billing data was available for the years 2006 through 2014 (inclusive). Figure 11 and Table 8 present historical average annual day residential water demands in the City between 2006 and As presented, water demands in the low-density residential customer sector declined by about 6.07 litres per capita per day per year during this period (based on the linear trend), while demands in the combined mediumand high-density residential customer sector declined by 7.37 litres per capita per day per year. The accuracy of the linear trend is very high for both residential customer sectors (R 2 values of 0.96 and 0.97). Figure 11: Historical Residential Water Demands ( ) Breslau ON N0B 1M0 15

18 Table 8: Historical Residential Water Demands, Litres per Capita per Day Year Combined Low Density Medium and High Density The reduction in Guelph s residential water demands has been the result of the effectiveness of the City s water efficiency measures (direct savings) combined with changes to the Ontario Building Code and the impact of the recent marketplace shift towards more efficient plumbing fixtures and appliances (natural savings), and a growing public awareness of the need to use our natural resources wisely (indirect savings). Since the introduction of the United States Environmental Protection Agency s WaterSense program in 2006, the focus of most plumbing fixture manufacturers has been on developing water-efficient products. As such, most toilets, showerheads, and faucets available in the marketplace are efficient models. The United States Environmental Protection Agency s ENERGY STAR program has had a similar impact regarding the efficiency of clothes washers and dishwashers available in the marketplace. Largely because of the improved efficiency of plumbing fixtures and appliances available in the marketplace there has been a decline in per capita residential water demands across North America. In fact it is estimated that the current rate of natural indoor residential savings is about 2.7 litres per capita per day per year. 2 Of course, such a significant rate of decline cannot go on indefinitely 3. The current rate of demand decline is expected to slow down as average residential demands move closer to approximately 150 litres per capita per day and there are fewer inefficient customers available in the City to convert to efficient customers (WaterSense, 2008). With a current combined residential demand of only 174 litres per capita per day, the City anticipates it will reach its 2038 single-family water demand target ahead of schedule. 2 Based on detailed in-home monitoring completed in 737 representative homes in nine different cities in the USA and Canada as part of the 1999 Residential End Use Study (AWWRF) and the 2014 Residential End Use Study Update (National Research Centre Inc.) over the 15-year period between 1999 and 2014 average per capita indoor demands have declined by from litres per capita per day to litres per capita per day, a reduction of 40.5 litres per capita per day in 15 years for an average of 2.7 litres per capita per day per year. This reduction was found to be statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level. 3 With the growing impact of WaterSense and ENERGY STAR on the efficiency of fixtures and appliances in the marketplace, achieving an average City-wide indoor residential water demand of about 150 litres per capita per day should be achievable. Breslau ON N0B 1M0 16

19 Low Density Residential Sector As stated previously, Guelph s single-family residential sector had a daily demand of 165 litres per capita in To put these values into context, the following table outlines per capita residential demands for comparable municipalities and also leading countries in water efficiency. Table 9: Single-family Per Capita Demands City/Country Litres per Capita per Day Region of Waterloo (2014) Region of Peel (2015) Toronto (2014) Calgary (2015) Region of York (2014) Markham (2014) United Kingdom (2014) Austria (2014) Germany (2014) Guelph (2014) Spatial Trends in Low Density Residential Sector Figure 12 illustrates water demands for Guelph s low density single-family residential sector in 2013 divided into the following water demand ranges: Top 5 percent: greater than 358 cubic metres per year, Top 5 to 20 percent: 248 to 358 cubic metres per year, Bottom 80 percent: 0 to 248 cubic metres per year. In 2013, 13.5 percent of the total low density residential water demand was consumed by the top 5 percent of single-family homes, 23.5 percent of demand was consumed by the top 5 to 20 percent, and 63 percent of demand was consumed by the bottom 80 percent of accounts. As illustrated in Figure 13, hot spots for high annual use are shown to occur in the centre-north, centre-south, west and southeast side suburban areas of the City. These observations agree with those outlined in previous water demand reports (Fortin, 2013), which noted high annual use in the centre-west and southwest areas of the City. 4 Value extrapolated from single-family demands identified in May 13 Water Efficiency Master Plan Update Technical Memo #1(Figure 22). 5 Value proved by Peel Region. 6 Value provided by City of Toronto Staff 7 Value from 2016 Water Efficiency Plan Update 8 Value from 2016 Long Term Water Conservation and Efficiency Strategy 9 Markham website ( Breslau ON N0B 1M0 17

20 Several attributes were reviewed to identify any key relationships between the different high water use hot spots. Table 10 lists the attributes and associated averages for the 3 ranges in water use. The average age of homes in the two top ranges are the same at 34 years, but the average home size in the top 5 percent customers is 124 percent larger than that of the 5 to 20 percent customers. The top 5 percent customers also have an average of 122 percent more bathrooms than the top 5 to 20 percent customers. That said, even these differences don t fully explain why the top 5 percent customers tend to use 175 percent more water than the top 5 to 20 percent customers. The bottom 80 percent of customers tend to live in older, smaller homes with fewer bathrooms, however, people do not tend to base how often they use the washroom, wash their clothes, or shower based on the size of their home or the number of bathrooms they have. The average summer and winter demands are similar for all three ranges indicating that the difference in demands between the ranges is not due to differential summer irrigation use. While the magnitude of the difference in water demands in the three ranges cannot be fully explained by the age or size of home, or even number of bathrooms, it may be that larger homes fitted with more bathrooms have higher occupancy rates, i.e., the difference in the per capita demand for these three ranges is not as pronounced as the difference in household demand. Table 10: Low Density Residential Statistics, 2013 Averages Monthly Water Demand, Selected Attributes Cubic Metres per Month Ranges Average Age of Home, Structural Area, Number of Summer Winter Annual Years Square Feet Bathrooms Top 5 percent , Top 5 to 20 percent , Bottom 80 percent , Breslau ON N0B 1M0 18

21 Figure 12: Low Density Residential Water Consumption by Parcel, All Ranges (2013) Breslau ON N0B 1M0 19

22 Figure 13: Low Density Residential Water Consumption by Parcel, Top 20 percent (2013) Breslau ON N0B 1M0 20

23 4.2.2 Consumption by Vintage of homes ( ) In 1996, the Ontario Building Code mandated the use of 6-litre toilets in new construction, therefore an analysis was conducted to compare demands for homes built pre- and post Data was analyzed yearly with the top and bottom 1 percent removed to reduce/eliminate errors and outliers. Average monthly demand rates from 2006 to 2014 were reviewed. Average annual monthly demands, average summer demands, and average winter demands were compared (Figures 14, 15 and 16). The results show that homes built pre-1996 consistently have lower average annual and winter day demands compared to post-1996 homes. The reason for this result is not known but could be a result of lower per capita occupancy rates in the older homes or perhaps many of the older homes have already replaced their existing plumbing fixtures and appliances with water efficient models. The difference in average summer day demands is mixed with older homes having higher demands between 2006 to 2009 and newer homes having higher demands between 2011 and 2014., The reason for this result may be related to the increasing differential between winter (indoor) demands between pre- and post-1996 homes (i.e., summer demands reflect both indoor and outdoor water use). Figure 14: Low Density Residential Average Annual Demand ( ), Constructed Pre- and Post-1996, Cubic Metres per Month Homes Breslau ON N0B 1M0 21

24 Figure 15: Low Density Residential Average Summer Demand ( ), Constructed Pre- and Post-1996, Cubic Metres per Month Homes Figures 16: Low Density Residential Average Winter Demand ( ), Constructed Pre- and Post-1996, Cubic Metres per Month Homes Breslau ON N0B 1M0 22

25 Multi-family Residential Sector Multi-family residences in Guelph are either directly metered (each unit has its own water meter) or bulk metered where a single meter services more than one unit or an entire building. Water demand data from 2006 to 2014 were analysed. Figure 17 depicts the monthly average consumption of bulk and directly metered accounts by average annual, summer and winter months on a per unit basis. As presented, directly metered accounts have lower average annual demands than bulk metered accounts. The total average annual monthly consumption between 2006 and 2014 is 13.5 and 10.8 cubic metres for bulk and directly metered accounts respectively. This differential may be the result of higher occupancy rates, less efficient fixtures, or less efficient occupants (because they don t pay water bill) in bulk metered buildings. Higher winter versus summer water demands in directly metered units may be the result of higher occupancy rates during the winter months due to student housing. Figure 17: Bulk versus Directly Metered Multi-family Residential Customers ( ) Breslau ON N0B 1M0 23

26 Medium Density Residential Sector Spatial Trends in Medium Density Residential Figure 18 shows water demand for Guelph s medium density multi-family residential sector in 2013 divided into the following water demand ranges: Top 5 percent: greater than 412 cubic metres per year, Top 5 to 20 percent: 245 to 412 cubic metres per year, Bottom 80 percent: 0 to 245 cubic metres per year. Hot spots are shown to occur in the suburban areas (Figure 19), especially in the Western and Southern areas of the City. In 2013, 25 percent of the total medium density residential water demand was consumed by the top 5 percent of accounts. The top 5 to 20 percent of medium density residential accounts consumed 22 percent of the water demand, while the lower 80 percent of accounts consumed 53 percent of the demand. Table 11 lists the attributes and associated averages for the ranges. The results show that older homes use more water, that larger homes use more water, and that homes with more bathrooms use more water. While it is expected that larger homes with more bathrooms are likely to have higher occupancy rates, the top 5 percent of homes use an average of eight times more water than the bottom 80 percent of homes. It is likely that this significant differential is the result of a combination of higher occupancy rates in the top 5 percent of homes combined with a lower level of fixture and appliance efficiency. Table 11: Medium Density Residential Statistics, 2013 Averages Monthly Water Demand, Selected Attributes Cubic Metres per Month Ranges Average Age of Home, Structural Area, Number of Summer Winter Annual Years Square Feet Bathrooms Top 5 percent , Top 5 to 20 percent , Bottom 80 percent , Breslau ON N0B 1M0 24

27 Figure 18: Medium Density Residential Water Consumption by Parcel, All Ranges (2013) Breslau ON N0B 1M0 25

28 Figure 19: Medium Density Residential Water Consumption by Parcel, Top 20 Percent (2013) Breslau ON N0B 1M0 26

29 4.4.2 Consumption by Vintage of homes ( ) Medium density data was analyzed yearly with the top and bottom 1 percent removed to reduce/eliminate errors and outliers. Average annual, summer and winter monthly water demands were recorded for each year (2006 to 2014). Figures 20, 21 and 22 show that medium density residential home constructed post-1996 have significantly lower monthly average demands in all three metrics compared to pre-1996 homes. Figure 20: Medium Density Residential Average Annual Demand ( ), Constructed Pre- and Post-1996, Cubic Metres per Month Homes Figure 21: Medium Density Residential Average Summer Demand ( ), Constructed Pre- and Post-1996, Cubic Metres per Month Homes Breslau ON N0B 1M0 27

30 Figure 22: Medium Density Residential Average Winter Demand ( ), Constructed Pre- and Post-1996, Cubic Metres per Month Homes Breslau ON N0B 1M0 28

31 High Density Residential Sector Spatial Trends in High Density Residential The following graphic (Figure 23) illustrates geospatial trends in water demand for the high density residential sector. The following water demand ranges were used to determine geospatial trends for high density residences: Top 5 percent: greater than 19,827 cubic metres per year, Top 5 to 20 percent: 9,632 to 19,827 cubic metres per year, Bottom 80 percent: 0 to 9,632 cubic metres per year. Hot spots are evident in the southern and eastern areas of the City (Figure 24). In 2013, the top 5 percent of high density accounts used 23 percent of the water demand. The top 5 to 20 percent of accounts used 37 of the water, and the lower 80 percent of accounts used only 40 percent of the demand. Table 12 lists the attributes and associated monthly average water demands for the 3 metrics. As expected, as the size of the building increases and the number of washrooms increases, the overall water demand increases (larger buildings are likely to have more units). The difference in water demand per square foot of area for these three ranges is not as pronounced with the average annual water use for the top 5 percent customers equal to 0.16 cubic metres per square foot, for customers in the 5 to 20 percent bracket the average demand is 0.13 cubic metres per square foot, and for the bottom 80 percent the average demand is 0.12 cubic metres per square foot. High water users also tend to use more water per bathroom than low water users, possibly because of higher occupancy rates or less efficient fixtures. The age of the building does not seem to be a critical factor. Table 12: High Density Residential Statistics, 2013 Averages Monthly Water Demand, Selected Attributes Cubic Metres per Month Ranges Average Age of Home, Structural Area, Number of Summer Winter Annual Years Square Feet Bathrooms Top 5 percent 2,152 1,794 2, , Top 5 to 20 percent 1,124 1,062 1, , Bottom 80 percent , Breslau ON N0B 1M0 29

32 Figure 23: High Density Residential Water Consumption by Parcel, All Ranges (2013) Breslau ON N0B 1M0 30

33 Figure 24: High Density Residential Water Consumption by Parcel, Top 20 Percent (2013) Breslau ON N0B 1M0 31

34 4.5.2 Consumption by Vintage of homes ( ) High density data was analyzed yearly with the top and bottom 1 percent removed to reduce/eliminate errors and outliers. Average annual monthly demands, average summer monthly demands, and average winter monthly demands were analyzed for the period 2006 to High density pre-1996 residential buildings have significantly lower demands in all three metrics compared to post-1996 buildings (Figures 25, 26 and 27), likely indicating that they are smaller buildings with fewer units. Figure 25: High Density Residential Average Annual Demand ( ), Constructed Pre- and Post-1996, Cubic Metres per Month Buildings Figure 26: High Density Residential Average Summer Demand ( ), Constructed Pre- and Post-1996, Cubic Metres per Month Buildings Breslau ON N0B 1M0 32

35 Figure 27: High Density Residential Average Winter Demand ( ), Constructed Pre- and Post-1996, Cubic Metres per Month Buildings Breslau ON N0B 1M0 33

36 Industrial, Commercial, Institutional Customers Industrial, commercial and institutional customer billing data was available for the years 2006 through 2014 (inclusive). Figure 28 illustrates historical average annual day industrial, commercial and institutional water demands in the City in this time period (note that because the Municipal Property Assessment Corporation codes were changed in 2012, miscellaneous customers with property codes of 000s, 100s, and 200s are included as industrial/commercial/institutional customers, specifically as institutional customers when the three components are broken out) (table 13). Figure 28: Historical Industrial, Commercial and Institutional Customer Sector Demands Breslau ON N0B 1M0 34

37 Table 13: Historical Industrial/Commercial/Institutional Average Annual Demands, Cubic Metres per Day Year Industrial Commercial Institutional & Other ,223 3,570 5, ,955 3,540 4, ,375 3,526 4, ,023 3,320 4, ,533 3,374 4, ,010 3,312 4, ,261 2,956 4, ,633 3,114 4, ,944 3,209 3,921 Between 2006 and 2014 the overall average annual day demand of the City s industrial/commercial/ institutional customer sector declined by an average of 214 cubic metres per day while the average per capita demand (based on the city population) declined by an average of 3.7 litres per capita per day per year (Figure 29). The 2038 target for industrial/commercial/institutional customers identified in the 2014 Water Supply Master Plan (based on achieving a 13 percent reduction) is approximately 133 litres per capita per day (based on city population) exactly what the demand rate was in 2014 (Figure 29). As such, the City is well ahead of schedule to reach its 2038 industrial/commercial/institutional target. Breslau ON N0B 1M0 35

38 Figure 29: Historical Industrial, Commercial and Institutional Water Demands ( ) Consumption by Industry All accounts for industrial, commercial and institutional customers were grouped by their North American Industry Classification System codes and were analysed based on their average annual, summer and winter monthly consumption. Figure 30 highlights the findings per sector with the number of accounts per sector found above each column. Breslau ON N0B 1M0 36

39 Figure 30: Average Consumption by Industry ( ), Cubic Metres per Month The following table gives the data points for the graph as well as the demand per account for each industry (Table 14). From the table, the Food and Beverage industry has the highest water demand per account per month, followed by Nursing Homes and Wholesalers. Breslau ON N0B 1M0 37

40 Table 14: Monthly Average Consumption by Nature of Industry ( ), Cubic Metres per Month Industry Average Annual Summer Winter Number of Accounts Demand per Account Wholesalers 82,718 80,010 84, ,216 Food and Beverage 57,656 62,985 53, ,118 Manufacturing 39,803 41,967 38, Services 35,307 38,788 33, Restaurants/Catering 27,631 29,358 26, Retailers 19,413 21,043 18, Health Care 17,216 19,167 15, Nursing Home 13,196 13,556 12, ,650 Schools and Universities 7,368 7,236 7, Hotels and Motels 6,321 7,326 5, Organizations/Associations 5,957 6,089 5, Car Washes 5,159 4,480 5, Construction 4,000 4,529 4, Automotive 4,126 4,579 3, Barber Shops/Beauty Salons 1,617 1,699 1, Laundromats 1,092 1,083 1, Transport Natural Resources Breslau ON N0B 1M0 38

41 4.6.2 Top 100 Consumers The top 100 industrial, commercial, institutional accounts were grouped by industry and the water demand per industry from 2006 to Because there is such a range in water demand, the yearly consumption per industry is shown in two separate graphs for clarity. Figures 31 and 32 present the average annual monthly water demand per year for the top consumers. Figures 33 and 34 illustrates the monthly summer averages, while figures 35 and 36 show the winter monthly averages per year. To better recognize the trend for each industry for each monthly average examined, the following table (Table 15) was prepared to summarize the percentage increase or decrease in average annual, summer and winter monthly consumption from 2006 to The industries with reduced water consumption have been highlighted and could be a result of water efficiency technology implementation, recessionary effects on the industry, or closure of some businesses during the timeframe examined. Many of the areas that had an increase in water demand can be related to Guelph s 15 percent growth in population since The automotive and construction industries have increased at a greater rate and could be an area for the Water Smart Business Program (formally Industrial/Commercial/Institutional Capacity Buyback Program) to focus its marketing. Table 15: Average Annual Percentage Increase/Decrease in Water Demand for Top 100 water users from Industry Average Annual, Percent Summer, Percent Winter, Percent Food and Beverage Manufacturing Retailers Services Schools and Universities Health Care Hotels and Motels Restaurants Construction Wholesalers Automotive Nursing Home Car Washes Organizations/Associations Breslau ON N0B 1M0 39

42 Figure 31: High Range of Top 100 Water Users for the Industrial/Commercial/Institutional Consumers Average Annual Water Demand, Cubic Metres per Month Figure 32: Low Range of Top 100 Water Users for Industrial/Commercial/Institutional Consumers Average Annual Water Demand, Cubic Metres per Month Breslau ON N0B 1M0 40

43 Figure 33: High Range of Top 100 Water Users for Industrial/Commercial/Institutional Consumers Summer Water Demand, Cubic Metres per Month Figure 34: Low Range of Top 100 Water Users for Industrial/Commercial/Institutional Consumers Summer Water Demand, Cubic Metres per Month Breslau ON N0B 1M0 41

44 Figure 35: High Range of Top 100 Water Users for Industrial/Commercial/Institutional Consumers Winter Water Demand, Cubic Metres per Month Figure 36: Low Range of Top 100 Water Users for Industrial/Commercial/Institutional Consumers Winter Water Demand, Cubic Metres per Month Breslau ON N0B 1M0 42

45 Non-revenue Water Non-revenue water is the term used for water that is produced by the City but not sold to customers. Nonrevenue water includes physical losses such as water used for firefighting, mains flushing, system leakage, unmetered municipal uses, etcetera, as well as apparent losses resulting from metering or accounting inaccuracies. If the City spends too little to reduce system leakage, the volume and value of water lost each year will increase; if the City spends too much, the cost of the program will outweigh the savings. Between these two extremes is an economic level of leakage where program costs and program savings are optimized. The City s goal is to reduce and maintain leakage levels at the economic level of leakage for their system 10. The City of Guelph has adopted the International Water Association/American Water and Wastewater Association Water Audit Method broadly accepted as the industry Best Practice of water loss accounting - to manage the level of non-revenue water. The Water Audit Method allows water utilities to assess non-revenue water levels in their system compared to established benchmarks. One of the most important elements of the Water Audit Method is the calculation of the system s Infrastructure Leakage Index a ratio of the Current Annual Real Losses in the system to the Unavoidable Annual Real Losses. A system with an Infrastructure Leakage Index value of 1.0 would have no unavoidable leakage; a system with an Infrastructure Leakage Index value of 2.0 would theoretically be able to reduce their leakage level by half. Guelph s current (2014) Infrastructure Leakage Index value is 1.59, much lower than the 3.01 value calculated in A declining Infrastructure Leakage Index value indicates that the City is reducing the level of avoidable leakage in their system. Table 16 presents historical Infrastructure Leakage Index values in Guelph between 2006 and Note that because as existing leaks are discovered and repaired, new leaks are forming, Infrastructure Leakage Index values will fluctuate from year to year. Table 17 presents the banding/rating system introduced in 2005 by the World Bank Institute into their non-revenue water training manuals to help assess system performance. While Guelph would have been classed in Band B from 2006 to 2011 with Infrastructure Leakage Index values between 2 and 4, since 2012 the City has moved up to Band A with Infrastructure Leakage Index values of less than 2.0. Table 16: Infrastructure Leakage Index Values Criteria Infrastructure Leakage Index Value It is not possible to eliminate all leakage in a water supply system. The Economic Level of Leakage is the term used for the level of leakage below which it costs the municipality more to eliminate than it would recover in cost savings. Breslau ON N0B 1M0 43

46 Table 17: World Bank Institute Target Matrix for Infrastructure Leakage Index Infrastructure Leakage Index Range Band General Description of Real Loss Management Performance Categories for Developed and Developing Countries 1-2 A Further loss reduction may be uneconomic unless there are shortages; careful analysis needed to identify cost effective improvement. 2-4 B Potential for marked improvements; consider pressure management, better active leakage control practices, and better network management. 4-8 C Poor leakage record, tolerable only if water is plentiful and cheap; even then, analyse level and nature of leakage and intensify leakage reduction efforts. >8 D Very inefficient use of resources; leakage reduction programs imperative and high priority. While the current (2014) estimated non-revenue water rate of 6,197 cubic metres per day is slightly below the 2014 Water Supply Master Plan 2038 target of 6,868 cubic metres per day, average daily production values are expected to increase by about 35 percent from 2014 to 2038 and, as such, the volume of non-revenue water expressed as a percentage of production will need to decline from about 14 percent in 2014 to only 11 percent in Breslau ON N0B 1M0 44

47 SUMMARY The City of Guelph is a growing community. Under the planning horizon of the City s 2014 Water Supply Master Plan, the City s population is expected to grow from 130,670 to 186,299 an increase of almost 43 percent. The Water Supply Master Plan has set an average annual day water savings target of 9,147 cubic metres per day by To achieve this target the City will need to reduce gross per capita demands from 375 litres per capita per day in 2038 (2014 Water Supply Master Plan projected baseline demand rate) to only 326 litres per capita per day a reduction of 13 percent. The 2014 Water Supply Master Plan water savings target is based on average annual day water production values. At this time it is assumed that water savings in the City will be distributed across the different customer sectors with demands in each sector (residential, industrial/commercial/institutional, and non-revenue water) declining on a per capita basis by about 13 percent between 2013 and The actual savings achieved in each of these sectors is not critical, as long as the total reduction in production rates meets the 2014 Water Supply Master Plan target. The City s water production targets include both customer demands and non-revenue water. Between 2006 and 2014 approximately 51 percent of the water produced by the City was used by residential customers, 34 percent by industrial/commercial/institutional customers, and about 15 percent was attributed to non-revenue water. Between 2006 and 2014 gross average annual day per capita production rates in Guelph have declined from 447 litres per capita per day in 2006 to only 353 litres per capita per day in Based on the linear trend of production values this equates to an average reduction of 12.3 litres per capita per day per year during these eight years. Between 2009 and 2014 gross average annual day per capita production rates in Guelph have declined from 387 litres per capita per day in 2009 to only 353 litres per capita per day in Based on the linear trend of production values this equates to an average reduction of approximately 6.3 litres per capita per day per year during these five years. Given that an average day production rate of 353 litres per capita per day was not projected until 2019, the City is currently approximately nine years ahead of its target schedule and only 19 litres per capita per day away from meeting its target 2038 production rate of 326 litres per capita per day. Between 2006 and 2014 gross average annual day per capita demand rates in Guelph have declined from 379 litres per capita per day in 2006 to only 293 litres per capita per day in Based on the linear trend of production values this equates to an average reduction of 10.4 litres per capita per day per year during these eight years. Between 2009 and 2014 gross average annual day per capita demand rates in Guelph have declined from 325 litres per capita per day in 2009 to only 293 litres per capita per day in Based on the linear trend of Breslau ON N0B 1M0 45

48 production values this equates to an average reduction of approximately 6.6 litres per capita per day per year during these five years. Average annual day demands in the low-density residential customer sector declined by 6 litres per capita per day between 2006 and 2014; demands in the combined medium- and high-density residential customer sector declined by 7 litres per capita per day per year. The overall average residential demand in 2014 was 174 litres per capita per day only 17 litres per capita per day higher than the 2038 residential target of 157 litres per capita per day identified in the 2014 Water Supply Master Plan. The significant reduction in residential demands has been the result of the effectiveness of the City s water efficiency measures combined with changes to the Ontario Building Code and the impact of the recent marketplace shift towards more efficient plumbing fixtures and appliances. While the rate of decline in residential demands is expected to slow down as the number of inefficient customers diminishes, the City is expected to meet, and likely exceed, its residential demand target a result that would provide a buffer should demand reductions in the industrial/commercial/institutional customer sector or non-revenue water savings prove more difficult to achieve than expected. Demands in the industrial sector have almost rebounded back to 2006 levels with only a slight decrease from 10,223 cubic metres per day in 2006 to 9,944 cubic metres per day in Demands in the commercial sector also decreased from 3,570 cubic metres per day in 2006 to 3,209 cubic metres per day in Demands in the institutional sector (including miscellaneous accounts) decreased from 5,414 cubic metres per day in 2006 to 3,921 cubic metres per day. The total demand in the industrial/commercial/institutional customer sector (including miscellaneous accounts) remained relatively constant during this period despite the growing population 17,480 cubic metres per day in 2006 and 17,052 cubic metres per day in With a current (2014) industrial/commercial/institutional customer sector demand (based on equivalent population) of 250 litres per capita per day and a 2038 target of 248 litres per capita per day, the City is currently ahead of schedule to reach its industrial/commercial/institutional target. The City s current (2014) non-revenue water rate is below the 2038 target identified in the 2014 Draft Water Supply Master Plan. However, because of the significant growth expected in the City by 2038, the volume of non-revenue water expressed as a percentage of production will need to decline from the 2014 level of almost 14 percent to only 11 percent in If this level of non-revenue water savings is not achieved by 2038, additional savings will need to be achieved in the residential and/or industrial/commercial/institutional customer sectors to meet the City s overall 2038 water production target as identified in the 2014 Draft Water Supply Master Plan. Breslau ON N0B 1M0 46