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1 Hydrologic Calibration: UPDATE OF EFFECTIVE HYDROLOGY FOR MARYS CREEK October 2010

2 Agenda Background Hydrologic model Calibrated rainfall Hydrologic calibration 100 year discharges, Existing Conditions 100 year discharges, Future Conditions

3 Background Largest contributor to the Clear Fork of Trinity River 55.2 mi 2 Drainage area of Clear Fork at the confluence is 8.5 mi 2

4 Aerial View Marys Creek Clear Fork Trinity River

5 100 year Floodplain Marys Creek Clear Fork Trinity River

6 DFIRM

7 Effective WSEL Profile Marys Creek Clear Fork of Trinity River

8 Effective Hydrology Used NuDallas 37 subbasins FIS 15 min time step Initial and constant loss Location Snyder s UH Marys Creek Clear Fork Drainage Area (mi2) 100 yr Discharge (cfs) At Confluence ,800 Upstream of Confluence Downstream of Confluence , ,400

9 Purpose of Study Update the flows on Marys Creek and the Clear Fork of the Trinity River. Phase I Create a new hydraulic model to analyze the confluence of Marys Creek with the Clear Fork. Phase II Remap the 100 year floodplain at the confluence

10 Hydrologic Model HEC HMS 49 basins Routing Modified Puls (main streams) Muskingum Cunge (smaller streams) Losses and Unit Hydrographs Initial and constant with Snyder s U.H. Curve Number and SCS U.H. 5 minutes time step

11 Subbasins

12 Historical Events, June 2000

13 Historical Events, June 2004

14 Historical Events, March 2007

15 Calibrated Rainfall Date Total Rainfall (in) June 3, :00 to June 4, : June 6, :00 to June 7, : March 30, :00 to March 31, :

16 USGS Gage, Rating Curve Based on field measurements up to a stage of 6 feet Extrapolated above 6 feet

17 USGS Gage, Rating Curve Adjusted Rating Curve: 1. Observed Stages at USGS gage 2. Built unsteady flow HEC RAS model for area around USGS gage 3. Routed storm hydrograph and obtained calculated stages 4. Gotnewrating curvefromras results 5. Using new rating curve and observed stages, got new hydrograph 6. Repeated # 3 until calculated stages match observed stages

18 USGS Gage, Rating Curve USGS , Rating Curve Stage (feet) ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 Discharge (cfs) Validated USGS Extrapolated USGS Adjusted FNI Adjusted FNI extended

19 Adjusted Discharges, June 2000 USGS , June , , , Discharge (cfs) 12, Rainfall (in) 8, , /3/00 21:00 6/4/00 0:00 6/4/00 3:00 6/4/00 6:00 Rainfall USGS Discharge FNI Discharge

20 Adjusted Discharges, June 2004 USGS , June , , , Discharge (cfs) 12, rainfall (in) 8, , /6/04 21:00 6/7/04 0:00 6/7/04 3:00 6/7/04 6:00 Rainfall USGS Discharge FNI Discharge

21 Adjusted Discharges, March 2007 USGS , March , , , Discharge (cfs) 12, Rainfall (in) 8, , /30/07 18:00 3/30/07 21:00 3/31/07 0:00 3/31/07 3:00 Rainfall USGS Discharge FNI Discharge

22 Storm Hydrographs Event Original Peak Adjusted Peak Original Adjusted Peak Stage Discharge Discharge Runoff Runoff (feet) (cfs) (cfs) Volume (in) Volume (in) June ,300 13, June ,900 16, March ,200 14,

23 Hydrologic Calibration Adjust hydrologic model to match the observed (adjusted) discharges Match basin response by adjusting Infiltration losses lag times Very time consuming

24 Calibration

25 Hydrologic Calibration, June 2000 USGS , June , , , , Discharge (cfs) 10,000 8, Rainfall (in) 6, , , /3/00 21:00 6/4/00 0:00 6/4/00 3:00 6/4/00 6: Rainfall FNI Discharge Discharge, Snyder's Discharge, SCS

26 Hydrologic Calibration, June 2004 USGS , June , , , , Discharge (cfs) 10,000 8, rainfall (in) 6, , , /6/04 21:00 6/7/04 0:00 6/7/04 3:00 6/7/04 6: Rainfall Discharge, Snyder's Discharge, SCS FNI Discharge

27 Hydrologic Calibration, March 07 USGS , March , , , , Discharge (cfs) 10,000 8, Rainfall (in) 6, , , /30/07 18:00 3/30/07 21:00 3/31/07 0:00 3/31/07 3: Rainfall FNI Discharge Discharge, Snyder's Discharge, SCS

28 Frequency Events Snyder s SCS Average lag times Average constant losses Initial loss: 2 inches Same % Impervious Average lag times CN (II) Initial loss: default (0.2S) Same % Impervious Frequency Rainfall ISWMM (USGS)

29 100 year, Existing Conditions 100 year Event, Existing Conditions at Confluence with Clear Fork 36, , , Discharge (cfs) 24,000 20,000 16,000 12, Rainfall (in) 8, , /1/10 0:00 1/1/10 6:00 1/1/10 12:00 1/1/10 18:00 1/2/10 0:00 1/2/10 6:00 31,700 cfs Snyder's 31,200 cfs SCS Rainfall 100 year, existing, Snyder's 100 year, existing, SCS

30 FIS Drainage Peak Discharges (cfs) Location HMS element Area (mi 2 ) Q2 Q5 Q10 Q25 Q50 Q100 Q500 Approximately 1,200 feet upstream of U.S. Route 80 Junction ,900 26,300 30,000 37,700 Approximately 047miles 0.47 downstream of U.S. Route 80 Junction ,400 26,900 30,700 38,400 Approximately 3,000 feet upstream of Chapin School Junction ,600 35,300 40,400 50,800 Approximately 0.76 miles downstream of Loop 820 Junction ,900 32,900 37,900 47,900 Approximately 0.95 miles downstream of Loop 820 Junction ,900 33,000 38,100 42,200 Approximately 1,100 feet upstream of Old Benbrook Junction ,300 32,200 37,500 47,900 At old Benbrook Road (USGS gage) Junction ,700 36,900 43,400 56,300 At confluence with the Clear Fork of Trinity River Junction ,600 36,600 42,800 55,000

31 Existing Conditions Location Approximately 1,200 feet upstream of U.S. Route 80 Approximately 047miles 0.47 downstream of U.S. Route 80 Approximately 3,000 feet upstream of Chapin School Approximately 0.76 miles downstream of Loop 820 Approximately 0.95 miles downstream of Loop 820 Approximately 1,100 feet upstream of Old Benbrook At old Benbrook Road (USGS gage) At confluence with the Clear Fork of Trinity River Drainage Peak Discharges (cfs) HMS element Area (mi 2 ) Q2 Q5 Q10 Q25 Q50 Q100 Q500 Junction ,036 7,199 10,508 15,320 19,278 23,416 32,602 Junction ,036 7,207 10,527 14,893 19,325 23,468 32,846 Junction ,859 9,289 13,571 19,548 24,395 29,844 41,770 Junction ,770 9,184 13,409 19,347 23,864 28,956 41,883 Junction ,838 9,320 13,581 19,574 24,125 29,260 42,465 Junction ,823 9,185 13,482 19,230 23,759 28,681 42,134 Junction ,682 10,693 15,638 21,858 26,932 31,862 48,529 Junction ,712 10,637 15,592 21,730 26,710 31,712 47,878

32 Existing Land Use

33 Future Land Use

34 100 year, Future Conditions Used future land use Same infiltration rates, higher % impervious Reduced Lag time based on increase in Percent Impervious 4 scenarios were evaluated Percent Impervious Increase Percent Lag time reduction Future A Future B Future C Future D % increase in impervious, Scenario C: 19.3% reduction in Lag time 62% incresase in impervious, Scenario D: 50 % reduction in Lag time

35 100 yr Future Discharges Scenario Discharge (cfs) Time of Peak Discharge Percent Increase Existing 31,712 14:55 - Future A 35,037 15: % Future B 35,996 15: % Future C 36,664 14: % Future D 38,298 14: %

36 FIRM

37 FIRM

38 Questions

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