Fuel Ethanol in Thailand: What s Next?

Transcription

1 Fuel Ethanol in Thailand: What s Next? 9 November 2016 Steigenberger Wiltcher's Hotel, Brussels, Belgium Pipat Suttiwisedsak Chief Operating Officer/ Managing Director Ekarat Pattana Company Limited pipat@epcethanol.com

2 Agenda 01 Thailand Biofuel Plan & Current Status 02 Update on Thailand Ethanol Market 03 Surviving in an era of cheap crude oil 04 KTIS More Than Sugar

3 Agenda 01 Thailand Biofuel Plan & Current Status 02 Update on Thailand Ethanol Market 03 Surviving in an era of cheap crude oil 04 KTIS More Than Sugar Statement by Prime Minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha at 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21) 30 November 2015, Paris, Republic of France On Thailand s part, we commit to decarbonize between percent by the year 2030

4 TIEB: Thailand Integrated Energy Blueprint Source: Ministry of Energy AEDP 2015: Alternative Energy Development Plan Share of RE Target (%) in 2036 Electricity 20% Heat 35% 30% Bio-fuels 25% Source: Ministry of Energy

5 AEDP 2015: Alternative Energy Development Plan Preparation of raw materials and renewable energy technologies The drivers of renewable development strategies Development of alternative raw materials and potential areas for renewable energy production Development of the high efficient renewable raw materials management and utilization model Promote the development of appropriate technology for generation and utilization of energy Improve infrastructure to support the production of renewable energy appropriately Increasing renewable energy production, utilization and market potential Support people and a community to participate in the production and utilization of renewable energy Support the investment on renewable energy to manufactures and consumers both domestic and international Promote the reducing of production costs and make renewable energy market more performance Develop the renewable energy law and rules to encourage the development of renewable energy appropriately Create awareness and access to knowledge and facts of renewable energy Develop renewable energy databases and information management systems Publicize information, knowledge and statistical data on renewable energy Capacity building both in the theory and practice to make more ability in utilization of renewable energy Development of renewable energy and its related networks and encourage the participation of the whole network both nationally and international level Source: Ministry of Energy AEDP 2015: Feedstock & Product Strategies Cassava mln MT mln MT Ethanol Consumption & Blending Target 32% Now 30 mln MT MLPD % 24% 2,700 4,125 55% Sugar Cane & Molasses mln MT 6 mln MT Now 90 mln MT 3.8 mln MT mln MT 8.55 mln MT % 1,300 25% 66% 45% 75% Now 2027f 2036f Ethanol from Cassava Ethanol from Molasses Source: Ministry of Energy

6 Current Status of Alternative Energy Alternative Energy Target in 2036 as of July 16 Progress % Electricity (MW) 19, , Solar Energy 6, , Wind Energy 3, Small Hydro Power Biomass 5, , Biogas 1, MSW Large Hydro Power 2, , Heat (ktoe) 25, , Solar Energy 1, Biomass 22, , Biogas 1, MSW Alternative Heat Energy n.a. Biofuels - Ethanol (MLPD) Biodiesel (MLPD) Pyrolysis Oil (MLPD) n.a. - CBG (ton/days) 4, n.a. - Alternative Fuels (ktoe) n.a % 16.35% 6.59% Source: Ministry of Energy Agenda 01 Thailand Biofuel Plan & Current Status 02 Update on Thailand Ethanol Market 03 Surviving in an era of cheap crude oil 04 KTIS More Than Sugar

7 Supply Side - Abundant feed-stocks Feedstock f 2017f Cane Molasses Ethanol Cane for Ethanol Cassava (Crop Survey) Ethanol unit: million ton Source: TSMC, TTTA, Custom Department of Thailand Supply Side - Install Capacity Ethanol Plants in Thailand Active Plants 2017 Newcomers Feedstock Plant Capacity Molasses & Cane juice 10 2,360,000 Molasses & Cassava 4 850,000 Sub-Total 64% 3,210,000 Cassava 7 1,830,000 Feedstock Plant Capacity Molasses & Cassava 1 200,000 Sub-Total 1 200,000 Cassava 2 420,000 Sub-Total 36% 1,830,000 Total 100% 21 5,040,000 Sub-Total 2 420,000 Total 3 620, Molasses & Cane 3,210,000 3,410,000 3,410,000 Cassava 1,830,000 2,250,000 2,970,000 Total 5,040,000 5,660,000 6,380,000 Unit: Liter per day Source: TEMA, DEDE

8 Supply Side - Actual Ethanol Production by Feedstock Molasses Sugarcane Juice Cassava 1, , Total Ethanol Production (Unit: ML) % % % % % % 37 80% % 49 89% % 73% % 72% % 43 71% 72% As of Jul 16 Source: DEDE Supply Side - Gas Stations Service There are total 25,000 gas stations with about 18,500 small-non-brand stations E10 stations are well-spread in Thailand 3,038 3,171 2,665 2,045 E20 Stations 1,311 E85 Stations As of Sep 16 Source: DOEB

9 Supply Side - Gas Stations Gas Stations E E20 3,171 as of Sept 2016 Source: DOEB Demand Side - Domestic Mogas Development Energy Policy REDP 15 year AEDP 10 year AEDP Jan 08 Started E20 Flooding E E20 GSH95 E Jan'06 Jul'06 Jan'07 Jul'07 Jan'08 Jul'08 Jan'09 Jul'09 Jan'10 Jul'10 Jan'11 Jul'11 Jan'12 Jul'12 Jan'13 Jul'13 Jan'14 Jul'14 Jan'15 Jul'15 Jan'16 Jul'16 MLPD Sep 08 Started E85 GSH91 E10 ULG91 ULG95 Jan 13 Terminated ULG91 GSH95 E10 ULG95 Source: DOEB

10 Demand Side - Ethanol Consumption Development 4.00 Sep 16 *EtOH cons. = 3.54 MLPD MLPD Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec *Note: Ethanol consumption is calculated from minimum blending ratio Source: DOEB Demand Side - Ethanol Consumption Development 4.50 Sep 16 *EtOH cons. = 3.90 MLPD MLPD Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec *Note: Ethanol consumption is calculated from maximum blending ratio Source: DOEB

11 Demand Side MOGAS & Ethanol Consumption Blending Ratio % 13.3% 13.3% 13.5% 13.5% 13.3% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% Mogas (MLPD) Ethanol (MLPD) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 3.50 ULG E10 95 E10 91 E20 E85 Total Ethanol Source: DOEB Demand Side - 5-year MOGAS & Ethanol Consumption Blending Ratio Mogas (MLPD) % % 11.5% % % Ethanol Ethanol (MLPD) As of Sep 16 ULG E10 95 E10 91 E20 E85 Total Ethanol Source: DOEB

12 Demand Side - Ethanol Export Statistic China Japan 27, Korea R 10, Philippines 47,828 14,506 17,826 11,084 Singapore 9, Taiwan 10,431 2, Others 4,168 1,095 2,286 1,793 Total 101,001 18,454 20,208 12,877 unit: CBM As of Aug 16 Source: Custom Department of Thailand Agenda 01 Thailand Biofuel Plan & Current Status 02 Update on Thailand Ethanol Market 03 Surviving in an era of cheap crude oil 04 KTIS More Than Sugar

13 Source: oil-price.net Price Structure Of Petroleum Product in THAILAND As of 20 Oct 2016 UNIT (BAHT/LITRE) EX-REFIN. (AVG) TAX Fund VAT Marketing Margin VAT RETAIL ULG GASOHOL95 E GASOHOL GASOHOL95 E GASOHOL95 E H-DIESEL Source: EPPO Decarbonize Energy Security Why Biofuels? Feedstock Balance Economy: Investment, Jobs Create

14 Agenda 01 Thailand Biofuel Plan & Current Status 02 Update on Thailand Ethanol Market 03 Surviving in an era of cheap crude oil 04 KTIS More Than Sugar KTIS More Than Sugar Sugar Mill Kaset Thai Sugar, 7MMT Thai Identity Sugar, 2MMT Ruampol Sugar, 1.8MMT Bio Energy Kaset Thai Bio Power, 60MW Ekaluk Bio Power, 60MW Ruampol Bio Power, 60MW EPC Ethanol, 75,000 CBM Bio Product EPPCO Bagasse Pulp, 100,000 MT Kaset Thai Bio Fertilizer, 90,000 MT KTIS GROUP

15 KTIS More Than Sugar Domestic consumption is growing by E10 No surplus ethanol due to limit feedstock Conclusions Plants are running at full actual capacity Next year feedstock is expected to decrease Still needs support when crude oil is cheap Do not forget Climate change problem

16 Q & A Mr. Pipat Suttiwisedsak Chief Operating Officer / Managing Director Ekarat Pattana Company Limited pipat@epcethanol.com Factory: 9 Moo 14, Nongpho sub-district, Takli district, Nakhon Sawan THAILAND Tel: Office: 10 th Floor, SINOBRIT building, 133 Vibhavadi-Rangsit Road, Samsennai, Phayathai, Bangkok THAILAND Tel: