Polyamide & Intermediates
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1 Polyamide & Intermediates Synthetic Fibre Raw Materials Committee Meeting at APIC 214 Pattaya, 16 May 214 (Emma) Liu Xiang
2 AGENDA A. World PA6 Industry Changes B. China is Leading the Change C. Opportunities and Challenges D. PA66 Industry Status and Prospects
3 WORLD CAPROLACTAM CAPABILITY vs. DEMAND 1, Metric Tons 7,5 7, 6,5 6, 5,5 Including Confirmed New Plants Effect of Unscheduled Plant Downtime Oversupply 5, 4,5 4, Capability to Produce Forecast Growth 3.% p.a. 3,5 Growth 2.7% p.a. 3, Growth 3.4% p.a. Growth 3% p.a. Caprolactam Consumption 2,
4 WORLD POLYAMIDE 6 CONSUMPTION BY END-USE 1, Metric Tons 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Growth CAGR 4.% -.5% -3.4% 4.3% PA6 Resin Staple High Ten Yarn Bulked Carpet Textile Fibre
5 CAPROLACTAM PRODUCTION COST IN ASIA vs. CRUDE OIL PRICE $/ton Caprolactam 3,5 3, 2,5 Cats & Chemicals Fixed Costs of Supplying Plants Energy Related Costs (Steam, Ammonia, etc.) Delivery Cost of Production in Asia Fixed costs of caprolactam plant 2, 1,5 Packing, Loading Energy Dependant Costs 1, Cyclohexane Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl
6 CAPROLACTAM PRODUCTION COST IN ASIA vs. CRUDE OIL PRICE $/ton Caprolactam 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Cats & Chemicals Packing, Loading Shipping Fixed Costs of Supplying Plants Profit zone Delivery Crude Oil Price $/bbl Energy Related Costs (Steam, Ammonia, etc.) Cyclohexane Cost of Production in Asia Fixed Costs of Caprolactam Plant Energy Dependant Costs
7 AGENDA A. World PA6 Industry Changes B. China is Leading the Change C. Opportunities and Challenges D. PA66 Industry Status and Prospects
8 CAPROLACTAM CAPACITY BY REGION 1, Metric Tons 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, South America S&SE Asia East Europe NE Asia North America West Europe China
9 CHINA CAPROLACTAM SUPPLY/DEMAND & NET TRADE 1, Metric Tons 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 Capacity Production Net Import 2, 1,5 1, Caprolactam Net Import CPL Domestic Production Domestic Production Production
10 CHINA CAPROLACTAM SUPPLY/DEMAND & NET TRADE Highest competitive intensity is predicted in China by 216 where operating rates could fall below 7%, with caprolactam margins fluctuating closely to cost Overseas caprolactam surplus faces limited demand in China, with some capacity closure possibly Recovery in operating rate after 216 is largely influenced by lower rates of capacity addition after 217 as projects are not yet conclusive. But new capacities are needed from 22, if capacity addition stops from 217.
11 CHINA / TAIWAN PA6 INDUSTRY Heilongjian g Xinjiang Gansu Qinhai Inner Mongolia Ningxia Shanxi Beijing Hebei Tianjin Jilin Liaoning Shandong Tibet Yunnan Sichuan Guizhou Shaanxi Henan Jiangsu Anhui Hubei Shanghai Zhejiang Jiangxi Hunan Fujian Guangxi Guangdong Taiwan China Top 3 Bases Hainan
12 CHINA PA6 POLYMER CAPACITY CHANGE Capacity in China boomed in the past 5 years, with the trend continuing, 27 total:112 ktpa, 213 total: 2295 ktpa, 218 total: 376 ktpa Large spinning chip polymer producers are emerging in Fujian province ( LiHeng, JinJiang), driven by need of upward integration. Fujiang Province will be the biggest PA6 polymer production base. 1, Metric Tons 1,2 1, JiangSu ZheJiang FuJian ShanDong GuangDong HuNan HeBei TianJin LiaoNing ShangHai
13 CHINA / TAIWAN PA6 POLYMER CAPACITY CHANGE Taiwan is an important contributor to China PA6 spinning industry, with half of its PA6 polymer output dedicated to China Taiwan PA6 Polymer has quality competitiveness in high speed spinning applications, however facing increasing competition from China peers 1, Metric Tons 1,2 1, Taiwan JiangSu ZheJiang FuJian ShanDong GuangDong HuNan HeBei TianJin LiaoNing ShangHai
14 CHINA / TAIWAN PA6 POLYMER CAPACITY DISTRIBUTION 213 PA6 Polymer Capacity (ktpa) Number of Regional Producers Taiwan JiangSu ZheJiang FuJian ShanDong GuangDong HuNan HeBei TianJin LiaoNing ShangHai Taiwan JiangSu ZheJiang FuJian ShanDong GuangDong HuNan HeBei TianJin LiaoNing ShangHai There are dispersed capacities in traditional production bases like Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shandong, with increasing competition pressure New polymer producers, such as Fujian producers, have scale economy advantage and integrated downstream spinning capacity, and try to further upward-integrate
15 CHINA PA6 POLYMER SUPPLY & DEMAND 1, Metric Tons 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Caprolactam Net Import Polymer Net Import Over Capacity Domestic Caprolactam Production PA6 Polymer Capacity Polymer Production Polymer Net Import Caprolactam Net Import Caprolactam Production
16 CHINA PA6 POLYMER SUPPLY & DEMAND Polymer capacity doubled during /218 capacity will be triple the 27 capacity. Oversupplied polymer is obvious in middle and low-grade markets and high quality polymer imports are needed for a certain period But polymer import decreases gradually, with domestic capacity addition of efficient facilities, quality improvements, and duty barriers (import duty, anti-dumping duty) Highest competition is expected in , with average operating rate around 65%, which may recover to 8-9% from 22 if capacity addition slows down
17 CHINA POLYAMIDE 6 CONSUMPTION BY END-USE 1, Metric Tons 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 Growth CAGR 7.3% 3% PA6 Resin Staple High Ten Yarn Bulked Carpet Textile Fibre 1, 3.5% 5 8.2%
18 213 CHINA PA6 CONSUMPTION BY END-USE Bulked Carpet 1.4% Textile Filament 56.% High Tenacity Yarn 17.7% Staple 3.% Automotive 11.9% E&E 31.8% PA-6 Resins 21.8% Film 22.% Injection Extrusion Injection Other extrusion 8.4% Injection Other injection applications 24.8%
19 CHINA PA6 SPINNING CAPACITY 213 Capacity (ktpa) 2,4 2, 1,6 1, Staple & BCF High Tenacity Filament Textile Filament Total ZheJiang FuJian JiangSu ShanDongGuangDong HuNan Others
20 CHINA / TAIWAN PA6 SPINNING CAPACITY CHANGE Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Fujian are top three production bases in China, where capacity continue to increase in five years. Big spinning producers are emerging in Fujian province, which has inspired local polymer and caprolactam investments Taiwan spinning capacity has rationalized to a stable level, focusing on differentiation now. 1, Metric Tons 1,4 217/218 1,2 1, Taiwan ZheJiang JiangSu FuJian ShanDong GuangDong HuNan Others
21 CHINA POLYAMIDE 6 FIBRE SUPPLY & DEMAND 1, Metric Tons 4,5 4, Operating Rate % 1 9 Staple 3,5 8 High Ten Yarn 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 Spinning Capacity 1.7% Bulked Carpet Textile Fibre 1, 6.7% 2 5 Growth CAGR
22 CHINA POLYAMIDE 6 FIBRE SUPPLY & DEMAND Spinning capacity in China has boomed in the past 5 years, with most new capacities for textile fiber applications and tyrecord capacity remaining stable Spinning capacity almost doubled during , new additions continue in the next few years. (27 total:1216 ktpa, 213 total:222 ktpa, 218 total:2894 ktpa) Highest competitive intensity is predicted in China during , and operating rate will recover to above 8% from 22 if capacity increase slows down.
23 AGENDA A. World PA6 Industry Changes B. China is Leading the Change C. Opportunities and Challenges D. PA66 Industry Status and Prospects
24 CHINA DOMESTIC CAPROLACTAM PRICES Price Rmb/Metric Ton 3, 25, 2, Price Gap Rmb/Metric Ton 1, 8, 6, China Domestic Contract Price China Domestic Spot Price Contract Spot 15, 1, Widened Price Gap 4, 2, 5, ,
25 CHINA PA6 POLYMER PRICES - HIGH-SPEED vs. GENERAL-SPEED SPINNING Price Rmb/Metric Ton 35, 3, 25, 2, Price Gap Rmb/Metric Ton 7, 6, 5, 4, High-Speed Chip General-Speed Chip High-Speed General-Speed 15, 3, 1, 2, 5, 1,
26 CHINA CAPROLACTAM PRICES - DOMESTIC vs. IMPORT Price Rmb/Metric Ton 3, 25, 2, 15, Price Gap Rmb/Metric Ton 8, 6, 4, 2, China Import Contract China Domestic Contract Import Domestic 1, 5, -2, ,
27 CHINA PA6 POLYMER PRICES - DOMESTIC vs. IMPORT Price Rmb/Metric Ton 35, Price Gap Rmb/Metric Ton 1, 3, 25, 2, 8, 6, 4, China Import China Domestic Import Domestic 15, 2, 1, 5, -2, -4,
28 CHINA POLYAMIDE 6 INDUSTRY OVERVIEW World caprolactam demand continues to grow at rates close to 3% per year and most of the growth will take place in China. Massive new caprolactam capacities in China lead to a competitive market, especially for the middle and low end applications. There have been two tiers of prices in the local caprolactam market due to the quality difference. A large price gap between import and domestic caprolactam prices this year led more Chinese polymer producers to increase their proportion of local sourcing. Benefitting from more competitive local caprolactam costs, local polymer producers gradually increased the market share for import material. In 213, the growth for local polymer was already faster than import polymers and the trend is expected to gain speed in the coming years. Tough times are expected for caprolactam and polymer producers reliant on exports to China, and dire consequences for caprolactam industry profitablility over the next few years.
29 AGENDA A. World PA6 Industry Changes B. China is Leading the Change C. Opportunities and Challenges D. PA66 Industry Status and Prospects
30 WORLD ADIPIC ACID CAPABILITY vs DEMAND 1, Metric Tons 4,5 4, 3,5 Capability to Produce Forecast Growth 2.7% 3, 2,5 2, Growth 4.% Invista closes 45 ktpa at Wilton & Maitland, rebuilds Orange Adipic Acid Consumption 1,
31 WORLD ADIPONITRILE CAPABILITY vs. DEMAND 1, Metric Tons 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 Capability to Produce BASF closes 116 ktpa at Wilton, UK 1,3 1,2 Forecast Growth 2.8% 1,1 1, 9 Growth 3.1% Invista s 254 ktpa unit at Orange, USA out of action Adiponitrile Consumption Capability =.95 x Nameplate Capacity
32 CHINA PA6 vs. PA66 POLYMER PRICES Rmb/Metric Ton 35, 3, 25, PA66 Polymer PA6 Polymer PA66 PA6 2, 15, 1, 5,
33 CHINA POLYAMIDE 66 INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Invista s project in Shanghai Chemical Industry Park includes 215 ktpa HMDA (planned to start up in 215), 15 ktpa Nylon 6,6 Polymer (planned to start up in 215), and 3 ktpa adiponitrile (planned to start up in 218). Shandong Runxing s 1 ktpa adiponitrile project is scheduled to start up in late 214. Polyamide 66 compounding capacity increased rapidly in China driven by healthy demand from automobile and high-speed railway industry. In comparison, polyamide 66 polymer capacity inside China is stable from last year. Polyamide 6 polymer prices and polyamide 66 polymer prices have followed divergent tracks this year. Insufficient local supply is the main factor contributing to a firm polyamide 66 polymer market. Chinese polyamide 66 polymer producers have plans to expand their capacity in order to meet growing downstream demand. These new capacities include Shenma s 5 ktpa unit, Huafon s 4 ktpa unit and Guorui s 2 ktpa unit. Lack of adiponitrile production is still the main factor limiting China s polyamide 66 polymer developments.
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