Prudent Development. Realizing the Potential of North America s Abundant Natural Gas and Oil Resources

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1 Prudent Development Realizing the Potential of North America s Abundant Natural Gas and Oil Resources A Comprehensive Assessment to 2035 with Views through 2050 September 15,

2 Today s Discussion Study Approach What We Learned Integrated Findings Recommended Strategies for the U.S. 2

3 Study Objectives Assess the N. American resource base natural gas and oil Conventional Unconventional Describe the role of technology Environmental Operational Assess N. American supply and demand Through 2035 With a view to 2050 Identify the potential role of natural gas to lower emissions Meet national objectives: economic, environmental, security 3

4 Study Structure Resource and Supply Demand Operations and Environment End-Use Emissions and Carbon Regulation Macroeconomics 4

5 Diverse Study Participation ACADEMIA AND PROFESSIONAL SOCIETIES 6% Study Committee, CSC, Task Groups, Subgroups Over 400 Participants End Users 13% Academia 7% Consultant/ Financial/ Legal 14% NGO 7% END USERS 7% NGO 12% GOV'T FEDERAL Gov t Fed & State AND 17% STATE 14% CONSULTANT/ FINANCIAL/ LEGAL 14% Oil & Gas Industry 41% OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY 47% 400+ PARTICIPANTS; 50+% PARTICIPANTS FROM OUTSIDE 5

6 Study Characteristics Multi-Study Approach Analyzed hundreds of public studies Developed appropriately aggregated and masked proprietary survey Diversity of Expertise and Viewpoints Over 400 participants Broad range of expertise in energy, environmental, and policy 6

7 Deep Assessment of Environmental and Emissions Issues Operations and the Environment Onshore Conventional Natural Gas and Oil Resources Offshore Conventional Natural Gas and Oil Resources Unconventional Natural Gas and Oil Resources History of Innovation in Environmental Stewardship History of Natural Gas and Oil Environmental Laws Environmental Regulation Refinement Sustainable Strategies and Systems Lifecycle Assessments and Footprint Analyses Environmental Management Systems (EMS) Public-Private Partnerships Data Management Systems Center for Offshore Safety Outer Continental Shelf Safety Oversight Board Regulatory Framework on the Outer Continental Shelf Lease Sale Planning Process Coastal Marine Spatial Planning Consideration of Studies on the Deepwater Horizon Incident Offshore Operations and Environmental Management Findings Carbon and Other End-Use Emissions Emissions Baseline and Projections Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxides, and Mercury Lifecycle Emissions of Natural Gas and Coal in Power Generation Lifecycle Analysis of Natural Gas and Coal in Power Generation Methane Reduction Programs and Technologies 7

8 Core Findings and Recommendations 8

9 N.A. Natural Gas Resource Estimates Transform Supply Outlook 4,000 Recent Estimates of Natural Gas Resources TRILLION CUBIC FEET 3,000 2,000 NATIONAL PETROLEUM COUNCIL (NPC) POTENTIAL GAS COMMITTEE ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION/ DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY/MINERALS MANAGEMENT SERVICE INTERSTATE NATURAL GAS ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC. MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY AMERICA S NATURAL GAS ALLIANCE NPC SURVEY LOW NPC SURVEY MID NPC SURVEY HIGH 1, YEAR Notes: Minerals Management Service (MMS) no longer exists; its functions are now administered by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE). Estimates: 10 Years Ago Current Estimates Resource/Supply 9

10 N.A. Gas Resources Have Potential to Supply the Market for Decades High demand, advanced technology, moderate development cost WELLHEAD DEVELOPMENT COST (2007 DOLLARS PER MILLION CUBIC FEET) RANGE OF CUMULATIVE DEMAND LOW DEMAND HIGH DEMAND MIT MEAN RESOURCE CASE MIT ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY CASE MIT HIGH RESOURCE TECHNOLOGY CASE 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 TRILLION CUBIC FEET Resource/Supply 10

11 N.A. Oil Supply Has Upside Potential But Risk of Decline High production opportunities enabled by access frameworks MILLION BARRELS PER DAY NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS OIL SHALE TIGHT OIL } OIL SANDS ARCTIC OFFSHORE ONSHORE CONVENTIONAL (INC. EOR) UNCONVENTIONAL OIL { LIMITED 2035 HIGH POTENTIAL Resource/Supply 11

12 Natural Gas and Oil Have a Portfolio of Available Domestic Supply Options In the near-term, currently commercial developments: Gulf of Mexico, Oil Sands, EOR, tight oil, onshore unconventional gas In the medium-term, recognised high-potential areas with currently restricted access: Arctic, new offshore regions, plus all the above In the long-term, resources which need new technologies and/or new access and regulatory regimes: Methane hydrates, shale oil (kerogen), U.S. oil sands, plus all the above Resource/Supply 12

13 Policy Choices Can Enable Prudent Development of Supply Options Develop appropriate leasing and royalty frameworks Establish long-term technology partnerships Maintain energy data and analysis capabilities serving government and industry Conduct resource assessments covering all prospective areas Maintain effective infrastructure permitting Resource/Supply 13

14 Power Sector Most Influences the Outlook for Natural Gas Demand BILLION CUBIC FEET PER DAY VEHICLE TRANSMISSION RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL POWER AEO 2010 AEO 2011 MAX. MED. MIN. AEO 2010 AEO 2011 MAX. MED. MIN. REFERENCE CASE PROPRIETARY REFERENCE CASE PROPRIETARY Demand 14

15 North American Natural Gas Can Meet Even the Highest Potential Demand BILLION CUBIC FEET PER DAY LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS EXPORTS VEHICLE DEMAND EXPORTS TO MEXICO CANADIAN DEMAND U.S. DEMAND SUPPLY (HIGH POTENTIAL) SUPPLY (LIMITED POTENTIAL) 0 DEMAND SUPPLY LOW DEMAND SUPPLY HIGH DEMAND Demand 15

16 Demand Related Recommendations Better Reflect Environmental Impacts in Markets and Fuel/ Technology Choices - Develop and Adopt Methodologies for Full Fuel Cycle Analysis Enhance the Efficient Use of Energy - Support Energy Efficiency Measures for Buildings and Appliances - Remove Disincentives for Utilities to Deploy Energy Efficiency Measures - Remove Barriers to Combined Heat and Power Enhance the Regulation of Markets - Allow Utilities to Effectively Manage Natural Gas Price Risk - Harmonize Interaction between Natural Gas and Power Markets Demand 16

17 Natural Gas Has Lower GHG Emissions POUNDS OF CO2 EQUIVALENT PER MEGAWATT HOUR 3,000 2,000 1,000 GAS-FIRED COMBINED CYCLE GHG emissions per MWh COAL PLANT (LESS EFFICIENT) COAL PLANT (MORE EFFICIENT) 0 7,000 BTU/KWH HEAT RATE 11,377 BTU/KWH 9,000 BTU/KWH Emissions 17

18 GHG Emissions Are Rising But Natural Gas Can Be Part of the Solution to Help to Lower GHG Emissions MILLION METRIC TONS OF CO2 EQUIVALENT 9,500 8,500 7,500 REFERENCE CASE REFERENCE CASE (AEO2011) 2005 BASELINE Reduction Pathways Coal displacement Natural gas end-use technologies EPA non-ghg regulations Price on carbon 6, YEAR Emissions 18

19 Major Recommendations Provide regulatory certainty to the power sector on the EPA non- GHG rules Use industry-government partnerships to promote technologies, protocols, and practices to measure, estimate, report, and reduce emissions of methane in all cycles of production and delivery As policymakers consider energy and environmental policies, they should consider effective and efficient methods to internalize the cost of carbon impacts Policies should be national, economy-wide, market-based, and part of an effective global framework Keep option for deep reductions of GHG emissions through lower emitting technologies or Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) R&D that is fuel neutral Emissions 19

20 Economic Benefits Also Flow From More Domestic Gas & Oil Development Direct jobs in the oil & gas industry: 2+ million Total direct/indirect jobs from oil & gas industry activity: 9+ million These are high-paying jobs: Average U.S. job Average U.S. wage Gasoline station Petroleum/product - wholesale Petroleum/product - manufacturing NG distribution Pipeline transportation Oil & gas extraction Macroeconomics 20

21 Other Benefits: Industry Payments of Federal Corporate Income Taxes 2008 Federal income taxes paid by corporations (IRS) ($Billions) MANUFACTURING EXCL. PETROLEUM PRODUCTS MANUFACTURING $61 FINANCE AND INSURANCE $36 OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY $30 RETAIL TRADE EXCL. GASOLINE STATIONS $20 MANAGEMENT OF COMPANIES (HOLDING COMPANIES) $18 WHOLESALE TRADE EXCL. PETROLEUM AND PETROLEUM PRODUCTS $17 Other Industries INFORMATION $17 MINING EXCL. OIL AND GAS EXTRACTION $5 PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC, AND TECHNICAL SERVICES TRANSPORTATION AND WAREHOUSING EXCL. PIPELINE TRANSPORTATION $6 $5 UTILITIES EXCL. NATURAL GAS DISTRIBUTION CONSTRUCTION HEALTH CARE AND SOCIAL ASSISTANCE $4 $4 $3 Macroeconomics 21

22 Recommendation: Support Intellectual Capital and Skilled Workforce The solution will require a greater degree of engagement by the federal government and natural gas and oil companies at the undergraduate and post-graduate level to encourage interest in the industry All levels of government need to invest in K-12 science and math education to improve the pipeline of future technical professionals 12 U.S. Petroleum Engineer Enrollment ( ) STUDENTS (THOUSANDS) ACADEMIC YEAR Macroeconomics 22

23 Prudent Development The only way that the U.S. can realize these opportunities is if the resources are developed prudently. Prudent Development is essential It is the lynchpin for continued, if not expanded access to resources It is necessary for public trust and protection Ops/Environment 23

24 The Geographic Reach of Oil & Gas Development in N. American Wells is Large Total: 4.3 Million Wells Wells per 100 square miles > 1000 Source: IHS / HPDI Ops/Environment 24

25 Game-Changing Technology Ops/Environment 25

26 Oil and Gas Development is Regulated From Start to Finish Leasing Land Seismic Assessments Site Preparation Drilling Well Completion Production Restoration Ops/Environment 26

27 Technology Improves Understanding of Fracking Impacts Top of fractures Thousands of feet of separation Bottom of deepest aquifers Fracture Height Determination Microseismic Ops/Environment 27

28 Comparing Different Estimates of Environment Footprints of Energy Sources TENS OF MILLIONS OF GALLONS PER 11,000 MWH WATER USE ESTIMATES 6 BONNEVILLE POWER ADMINISTRATION ENVIRONMENTAL COST OF ENERGY NATURAL GAS COAL WIND Water Consumed to Provide Electricity to 1,000 Average U.S. Households Annually ACRES PER 11,000 MWH BONNEVILLE POWER ADMINISTRATION ENVIRONMENTAL COST OF ENERGY 0.3 LAND DISTURBANCES NATURAL GAS COAL WIND Area Disturbed to Provide Electricity to 1,000 Average U.S. Households Annually Ops/Environment 28

29 Recommendations for Industry and Government Support Prudent Natural Gas and Oil Resource Development and Regulation Establish Regional Councils of Excellence Adopt Policies for More Effective Regulation Commit to Community Engagement Develop Consistent Methodologies for Environmental Footprint Analysis Ops/Environment 29

30 Integrated Findings: Putting it Together Findings 30

31 1. Natural Gas is an Abundant Resource N. America s natural gas resource base is enormous with potential benefits to the economy, environment and security The benefits depend upon access and responsible development Findings 31

32 2. Surprisingly, Oil Resources are Also Abundant North America has world-class oil resource basins Future access depends upon responsible development practices Findings 32

33 3. America Needs Gas and Oil Natural gas and oil are indispensable to our economy and standard of living for the foreseeable future. Oil/gas industry: economic benefits to the nation Gas can provide significant emissions reductions Even so, we must still use these efficiently. Findings 33

34 4. These Benefits Depend Upon Prudent Development Development in different areas require different approaches. Everywhere, responsible practices are needed. Regulators must evolve their own regulatory requirements. These steps are necessary for public trust, protection of health, safety and the environment, and access to resources. Findings 34

35 Key Recommendations: What is Needed Recommendations 35

36 1. Support Prudent Development Establish Regional Councils of Excellence to share effective environmental, health, and safety practices Adopt policies for more effective regulation of natural gas and oil production and operations Commit to and carry out community engagement Measure and reduce methane emissions By supporting prudent development, provide access to resources Recommendations 36

37 2. Better Reflect Environmental Impacts in Markets & Choices Develop and use tools to better analyze and compare the full environmental impacts of fuels and technologies Consider options for internalizing the cost of carbon impacts into fuel prices Keep open technology options for reducing GHG emissions from gas in the long run Recommendations 37

38 3. Enhance the Efficient Use of Energy Encourage mechanisms to support greater adoption of energy efficiency in buildings and appliances Remove barriers to utilities promotion of efficiency and combined heat and power CLAY Recommendations 38

39 4. Enhance the Regulation of Markets Allow utilities to effectively manage their natural gas price risk Harmonize interactions between natural gas and power markets Provide greater certainty in environmental regulations affecting the power sector Recommendations 39

40 5. Support Needed Talent and Know-How Support intellectual capital and a skilled workforce: - Increase the Number of Qualified Natural Gas and Oil Professionals CLAY Recommendations 40

41 Summary We have enormous oil and gas resources of potential value and importance to the nation There s enough supply to support national objectives including our economic, environmental and security interests The lynchpin to realizing these benefits is prudent development We have to do this right. And our recommendations help us move toward these outcomes. Summary 41

42 Prudent Development Realizing the Potential of North America s Abundant Natural Gas and Oil Resources A Comprehensive Assessment to 2035 with Views through 2050 September 15,

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