Climate Change: Ocean Impacts on Public Health

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1 Climate Change: Ocean Impacts on Public Health A Global Warming Pause? Climate Change Health Summit Washington, DC September 20, 2015 Donald F. Boesch 2015 Virtually Certain Temperature Record Ocean Heating Has Been Steady Most of the Heat Stored in Ocean How Much Will it Warm? It mainly depends on how much greenhouse gases we emit. Global average surface temperature 7.2 F Unrestrained growth in emissions RCP F Rapid emissions reductions RCP

2 Changes Will Vary Greatly A Warmer Chesapeake Bay RCP8.5 Scenario for Annual mean surface temperature [Chesapeake region warms more than global average, up to 8 F!] Average percent change in annual mean precipitation [~10% increase in Chesapeake region, mainly winter-spring] Extensive Effects of Ocean Warming Sea Level Had Been Stable 2000 Years Anomalously warm surface water in NE Pacific in 2015 Drought in California Heat waves in NW US Effects on salmon stocks Harmful algal blooms Pacific Decadal Oscillation El Niño meters Tide gauges Paleo-reconstruction Less than 1 foot in 2,000 years Kemp et al Proc. National Acad. Sci Recent Sea-Level Rise Factors That Influence Sea-Level Change Since 1992 sea level rising more than twice as fast as for the 20 th century as a whole. sealevel.colorado.edu 2

3 How Much Will the Seas Rise? Effects of Polar Ice Sheet Melting Expected change in sea level for a given loss of ice mass from Greenland and Antarctica. Greenland Unrestrained emissions Rapid reductions Horton et al Quaternary Science Reviews 84:1 West Antarctica Paradoxically, sea-level rise is greatest farthest from the source. Slowing of Gulf Stream Raises Sea Level Vertical Land Motion--Glaciation Tide gauge level trends Land surfaces that were depressed by thick ice masses are now rising. Land surfaces that bulged upward because of these ice masses are now sinking. Gulf Stream strength Late Interglacial Based on work of Tal Ezer and colleagues, Old Dominion University J. Geophysical Research 118:685 How Much Will Sea Level Rise in the Chesapeake Bay? Consequences of Sea-Level Rise Light blue: salt marshes Greens: < 2 m, susceptible to innundation Orange-yellow: 2-4 m, susceptible to storm surge climatechange.maryland.gov Greater Bay volume, MVN ocean RSM Program influence 3

4 Sea-level change (cm above 2000) 21 st century 9/19/2015 Sea-level Rise & Human Catastrophe Climate Change & Tropical Cyclones Hurricane Katrina intensified as a result of warm surface waters Tropical cyclones might actually become M less frequent, but more powerful. Sea-level Rise Will Not Stop in 2100 Harmful Algal Blooms RCP4.5 Stabilization without overshoot RCP3-PD Peak and decline 0 Historic (proxies & tide gauges) Year Adapted from Schaeffer et al Nature Climate Change 2: 867. Neurotoxic Paralytic Amnesic Diarrhetic Coastal Ocean & Infectious Disease Increase in Atmospheric CO 2 Warmer temperatures Enriched waters Altered ecosystems Open MVN to RSM invasions Program Starting point 280 ppm 4

5 Ocean Acidification Climate Change Education K-12 Education (integrated with Next-Generation Science Standards, and Environmental Literacy Requirements) Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment and Research Higher Education (sustainability literacy, teacher preparation, pipeline) Informal Education (museums, aquaria, outdoor centers, media) Questions or Comments? 5