Climate Change Risks for the Canadian Energy Sector
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1 1 Climate Change Risks for the Canadian Energy Sector IEA 6 th Forum on the Climate-Energy Security Nexus June 7 th, 2016 Mary Preville, Director General Earth Science Sector
2 2 Observed Temperature Changes Amount of warming varies across Canada Warming trend of 1.5 C on average in Canada C / 61 yrs Annual mean temperature anomalies
3 3 Observed Precipitation Changes Precipitation changes vary across Canada Increasing Precipitation Annual total precipitation anomalies
4 4 Projected Changes Temperature Sea Level
5 5 Canada in a Changing Climate Science Assessments Canada in a Changing Climate - sectoral analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation Coastal Assessment and Transport Assessment (summer) Scientific Research Climate change related research and monitoring e.g. permafrost, forest fires, glaciers, aquifers, sea level and coastal erosion Development and application of remote sensing technologies.
6 6 Canada in a Changing Climate The Canadian Forestry Service s Research on Future Forest Fire Risk Assess vulnerability of timber supply to increasing risks of wild fires across Canada Mapping under different climate scenarios Future annual area burned Length of fire season Number of larger fires Future annual area burned
7 Climate Change Impacts on the Energy Sector 7 Extreme Weather Warmer Temperatures Water Availability DEMAND Increased peak electricity demand due to heat/cold waves Increased cooling demand; Decreased heating demand SUPPLY Damage to production facilities; Disruption in supply change Cooling issues in thermal plants; Development in arctic Hydropower production; Water for oil and gas production TRANSMISSION Infrastructure damage due ice storms, landslides, etc. Reduced efficiency electricity transmission; Infrastructure damaged by permafrost thaw
8 8 Why adapt? Reducing risks. Seizing Opportunities coastal erosion credit: François Morneau mining, water and waste forestry pests and fire
9 Climate Change Impacts Canada s Adaptation Platform Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program Adaptation Outcomes 9 Adaptation Platform Plenary Chair, CCIAD/NRCAN permafrost thawing Economics Coastal management Science assessment Northern Measuring progress flooding Mining Forestry Energy Infrastructure Water and Climate Information Agriculture resilience of energy systems Generating and sharing knowledge coastal erosion
10 10 Adaptation Platform s Energy Working Group Projects Risk Assessments Toronto Hydro-Electric System Limited Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (Clean Air Partnership) Assessment of climate change risks to electricity distribution infrastructure using Engineers Canada s PIEVC Protocol. Also Ontario s Transmission System Energy Demand Integrating Changing Temperatures Trends into National and Regional Energy Demand Forecasts Main objective: to inform supply management and planning. Current estimations of future energy demand are done without considerations for the changing climate. Climate Risk Assessment for the Oil & Gas Sector in Northeastern British Columbia (Fraser Basin Council) Comprehensive inventory of climate change risks and successful engagement with the oil and gas sector. National study with the ENERGY 2020 model (March 2016) Regional studies: Yukon, Quebec, British Colombia, Manitoba
11 11 Adaptation Platform s Energy Working Group Projects Tools Advanced Decision Making Protocol - From Climate Change Scenarios to Decisions on Hydropower (Ouranos) Helps translate risks into financial terms to assess adaptation options. Case studies with Manitoba-Hydro & Hydro-Quebec. Best Practices Adaptation Case Studies in the Energy Sector, Overcoming Barriers to Adaptation (Ouranos) Fully documented cases studies from Canada and abroad, which are relevant to challenges faced by the Canadian energy sector. Dissemination The Adaptation Platform Webinar Series Since Over 40 adaptation webinars. Video recordings available online. (webinars.cullbridge.com/adaptationplatform)
12 12 Federal Initiatives to Address Climate Change Risks North American Cooperation on Energy Information (NACEI) CCMEO s Mapping of Energy Infrastructure Developed maps for: Natural Gas Processing Plants Liquefied Natural Gas Import and Export Terminals Refineries and Upgraders Electric Power Plants Renewable Electric Power Plants Interactive maps are available via new trilateral information website (
13 13 Domestic Policy Context Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change Weather-related emergencies and natural disaster action plan Green infrastructure, incl. climate resilient infrastructure Investing in clean technology and supporting innovation Environmental assessment process review Modernizing the National Energy Board Sector/department-specific mandates and priorities
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