Albany, NY December 1, Natural Gas Outlook. Presentation to: Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) General Meeting

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1 Albany, NY December 1, 2010 Natural Gas Outlook Presentation to: Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) General Meeting Stephen Leahy Northeast Gas Association

3 Topics Gas Market Conditions Gas Supply Task Force & Electric Coordination Supply & Infrastructure Developments

4 NGA Members Non-profit trade association Local gas utilities (LDCs) serving New England, New York, and New Jersey Several interstate pipeline companies LNG importers (Distrigas; Repsol) and LNG trucking companies Over 250 associate member companies, from industry suppliers and contractors to electric grid operators NY VT NH MA RI CT NJ ME

storage capacity at LNG facility in New Brunswick (Canaport) Pipeline system upgrades Commodity price higher

5 Winter Outlook Storage levels in positive position U.S. gas production up ~2.5% this year Impact of shale gas output Regional supply & delivery additions since last year Additional storage capacity at LNG facility in New Brunswick (Canaport) Pipeline system upgrades Commodity price higher than last year but still in $4/Mcf range L ki h d th l i th bi t i bl i Looking ahead, weather, as always, is the biggest variable in supply/price dynamic

Storage & Production Up U.S. natural gas storage levels as of November 12 were 3.843 Tcf, 9% above the 5-year average U.S. gas production levels up about 2.

6 Storage & Production Up U.S. natural gas storage levels as of November 12 were Tcf, 9% above the 5-year average U.S. gas production levels up about 2.5% in 2010 Source: U.S. EIA, data released Source: U.S. EIA, data released , through Aug. 2010

7 Price: Recent History, EIA Short-Term Forecast Natural Gas Prices Henry Hub spot price Composite wellhead price Forecast Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Source: U.S. EIA,

8 Natural Gas to Oil Price Trend Source: U.S. EIA, data released

9 Recently-Added Supply / Delivery Points Canaport LNG, June 2009 Rockies Express East Pipeline, Nov Millennium Pipeline, Dec Northeast Gateway LNG, May 2008 Marcellus Shale Devl t, Neptune LNG, Summer 2010

FERC: Northeast Basis Improving Thanks to New Infrastructure So

FERC In May, staff of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) released the Summer 2010

One of the charts in the presentation is shown here, demonstrating the year-to-year change in

10 FERC: Northeast Basis Improving Thanks to New Infrastructure Source: U.S. FERC In May, staff of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) released the Summer 2010 Energy Market and Reliability Assessment. One of the charts in the presentation is shown here, demonstrating the year-to-year change in natural gas basis among U.S. regions, relative to the Henry Hub. As can be seen, the Northeast has seen a positive change in its price differential. The FERC cites this improving position to the arrival of Rockies Express East and the rising production from the Marcellus Shale in Appalachia.

11 Gas & Power Generation Source: U.S. FERC

12 Industry Coordination: NGA with ISOs

13 NGA Gas Supply Task Force Members: LDCs in region, interstate pipelines (including TransCanada), LNG transporters Purpose: to help deal with meeting winter supply needs and deliverability within the Northeast region Tasks: Monitor regional deliverability of its members gas supplies during periods of peak demand or supply curtailment; Advise region s energy, regulatory and policy officials; also Updatep ISOs in region of meetings, outcomes

14 NGA Interface with ISOs Electric & Gas Operations Committee (EGOC), NGA and ISO- NE/NY ISO/PJM Meets periodically, provides updates on system issues (only publicly available information discussed transparency requirements) Next discussion scheduled for ISOs invited to participate p at NGA winter supply ppy outlook briefing for state government officials in region, Several committee calls this summer to monitor conditions on both electric and gas side NGA on behalf of its NE Gas Supply Task Force will notify ISO- NE, NY ISO, PJM when Task Force meets, summary of any actions or status

15 Infrastructure Enhancements: Completed Since Last Winter

16 Canaport LNG Photos: Repsol In-service, June Can deliver 1 Bcf/d into market. 3 rd storage tank completed this spring. Approx. 10 Bcf of storage in 3 tanks. Developers: Repsol and Irving Oil.

Value of LNG This Past Winter in New England LNG sendout into the New

from Repsol s Canaport LNG in New Brunswick (gold) and Excelerate

17 Value of LNG This Past Winter in New England LNG sendout into the New England market increased this recent winter with the input of supplies from Repsol s Canaport LNG in New Brunswick (gold) and Excelerate Energy s Northeast Gateway offshore Gloucester, MA (red), in addition to Distrigas in Everett, MA (aqua). A major increase over previous winter (Source: U.S. FERC) Source: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, 2-10

18 Neptune Deepwater Port Completed This Summer Source: GDF SUEZ

19 Other System Upgrades Spectra: East to West Project Provides customers with access to East end LNG supply; MMcf/d Source: Spectra Energy

Efficiency Investments Continue In 2009, almost $1 billion was invested in natural gas efficiency programs nationwide, according to a March 2010 report by the Consortium for Energy Efficiency (CEE).

20 Efficiency Investments Continue In 2009, almost $1 billion was invested in natural gas efficiency programs nationwide, according to a March 2010 report by the Consortium for Energy Efficiency (CEE). Of that, $192 million or one-fifth of the national total - was slated to be invested in several Northeast states (CT, MA, NH, NJ, NY, RI and VT). Budgets for U.S. natural gas efficiency investments have nearly quadrupled since Source: Consortium for Energy Efficiency

21 Shale Gas Developments

MIT Study: Gas is the Bridge Natural gas truly is a bridge to a low-carbon future The Future of Natural Gas report released by MIT on June 25, 2010.

Much of this is from unconventional sources, including gas shales.

22 MIT Study: Gas is the Bridge Natural gas truly is a bridge to a low-carbon future The Future of Natural Gas report released by MIT on June 25, The United States has a significant natural gas resource base, enough to equal about 92 years worth at present domestic consumption rates. Much of this is from unconventional sources, including gas shales. While there is substantial uncertainty surrounding the producibility of this gas, there is a significant amount of shale gas that can be affordably produced. Environmental issues associated with producing unconventional gas resources are manageable but challenging. Source: MIT Energy Initiative, June 2010

23 The Game-Changer : North American Shale Gas Basins Map: National Energy Board 25.

24 Changing Supply Sources U.S. Supply Source Volumes in Bcf/d upply Su 61% 75% 84% Source: Tennessee Gas Pipeline, El Paso June 2010 Macro Forecast

25 Marcellus Receipts on Tennessee Gas Pipeline Average Monthly Prod duction (M Dth/day) 800 Peak day reached 857 MDth on 8/19 and 8/ Jul 08 Sep 08 Nov 08 Jan 09 Mar 09May 09 Jul 09 Sep 09 Nov 09 Jan 10 Mar 10May 10 Jul 10 Source: Tennessee Gas Pipeline/El Paso, 9-10

26 Proposed Northeast Pipeline Projects: Focusing on Appalachian Connections Prepared by NGA, based on publicly available information. Project locations approximate. Iroquois, NYMarc Iroquois, WTC Project NiSource & Empire, Tioga UGI Project Expansion VERMONT National Fuel Gas, Northern Access Project Tennessee, Northeast Upgrade Tennessee, 300 Line Expansion Tennessee, Northeast Supply Diversification Spectra, NJ / NY Expansion Spectra/Texas Eastern, TEMAX and TIME III Williams, Northeast Supply Project Dominion, Ellisburg to Craigs Dominion, Appalachian Gateway Spectra/Texas Eastern, TEAM

$fracking$ Binghamton

27 Drilling and Environmental Review U.S. EPA review of fracking Source: Binghamton Press Current review in New York State of horizontal drilling process

Public comment period closed in late 2009 on Draft Generic Environmental Impact Statement (GEIS) NY

28 NY State t Review Gov. Paterson called for review of potential Marcellus shale drilling in July 2008, initiating moratorium Public comment period closed in late 2009 on Draft Generic Environmental Impact Statement (GEIS) NY DEC reviewing comments and preparing GEIS now April 09: DEC announces exclusions from horizontal drilling for Syracuse and NYC watersheds Source: NY Dept. of Environmental Conservation

$High volume hydraulic fracturing Water consumption &$ transportation Chemical additives Fluid handling,

Horizontal drilling from multi-well ll pads Duration of

29 NY DEC: Environmental Issues Associated with Marcellus High volume hydraulic fracturing Water consumption & transportation Chemical additives Fluid handling, disposal, treatment Local impacts to infrastructure Horizontal drilling from multi-well ll pads Duration of impacts Source: NY Dept. of Environmental Conservation presentation, 6-10

30 Potential Northeast Output t bcfd Source: Wood Mackenzie presentation to NGA, Northeast Gulf Coast Rockies/MidCon LNG Canada Alaska

31 New Flow Dynamics from Appalachia

75 Second Avenue, Suite 510 Needham, MA 02494-2824 Tel.

32 75 Second Avenue, Suite 510 Needham, MA Tel Waterview Boulevard, 4 th Floor Parsippany, NJ Tel

Natural Gas Pipeline Developments

October 12, 2012 Framingham, MA Natural Gas Pipeline Developments Presentation to: A&WMA-NES Fall 2012 Conference Stephen Leahy Northeast Gas Association Topics Pipeline trends in response to supply push