Canadian Oil, Gas and LNG Market Review
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1 Canadian Energy Research Institute Canadian Oil, Gas and LNG Market Review Allan Fogwill Strait of Canso Superport Days 16 Dundee, Nova Scotia July
2 Mission Statement Founded in 1975, the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) is an independent, non-profit research Institute specializing in the analysis of energy economics and related environmental policy issues in the energy production, transportation, and consumption sectors. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, and objective economic research of energy and environmental issues to benefit business, government, academia and the public. 2 2
3 Current Sponsors Core supporters include: In-kind support is also provided: 3 3
4 Agenda Oil Market Natural Gas Market LNG Conclusion 4 4
5 Evolution of Energy Markets The supply availability of oil and natural gas has fundamentally changed over the last 5 years. Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have opened up vast additional reserves creating a downward pressure on prices. 5 5
6 OIL 6 6
7 World Oil Reserves Source: EIA Reserves have increased over 27% in the last 10 years with the 2013 reserves to production ratio of 53 years 7 7
8 Canadian Conventional Oil Production (Aug 2015) Crude Oil Production (excl Oil Sands) bbls/day 1,600,000 1,500,000 1,400,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000, , , , , , , , , ,000 0 Eastern Canada Pentanes Plus MB Oil Forecast BC Oil Forecast NWT Oil Forecast SK Oil Forecast AB Oil Forecast (Conv) Oil from Gas Wells Source: CERI, CAPP 8 8
9 Oil Sands Growth (Aug 2015) Oil Sands Growth CERI s Projections (August 2015) (Production, High Case Scenario) (Production, Low Case Scenario) (Production, Reference Case Scenario) (MMbpd) Source: CanOils, CERI * Growth dependent on market access TMX, Gateway or Energy East 9 9
10 Factors Affecting Oil Market Demand Economic Growth Europe US China Strategic Oil Reserves (short term) Supply High levels of inventories (short term) Delayed investments Geopolitical Issues - Iran - Venezuela - Iraq - Yemen - Nigeria - Russia 10 10
11 Natural Gas 11 11
12 Natural Gas Reserves Source: BP Reserves have increased over 19% in the last 10 years with the 2013 reserves to production ratio of 55 years 12 12
13 Canadian NG Demand Outlook By Province BCFD Source: NEB, CERI AB BC SK MB YK NW ON QC NB NS PE NF NU * Primary demand includes steam and electricity generation demand 13 13
14 US Natural Gas Production Forecast Source: EIA 14 14
15 US Natural Gas Demand Outlook by Sector Bcf/d Source: EIA Residential Commercial Industrial Electric Power Transportation Pipeline Fuel Lease and Plant Fuel Total Natural Gas Consumption 15 15
16 Export Potential from Western Canada Source: CERI * Demand excludes steam and electricity requirements (approx. 3 bcf/d) 16 16
17 Factors Affecting Natural Gas Market Supply Pipeline access from US into Canada Storage inventories Demand Weather Liquefied Natural Gas Facilities Power Generation Industrial Demand (Petrochemical Feedstock, oil sands) 17 17
18 LNG 18 18
19 LNG Supply and Demand Asian Markets Two Russian pipelines, Altai and Power of Siberia can supply China with natural gas volumes in excess of 6 bcfd Source: CERI, IEA 19 19
20 The Pipeline Challenge to LNG - Asia Source: Singapore Straits Times 20 20
21 The Pipeline Challenge to LNG - Europe Source: Rethink Institute 21 21
22 Factors Affecting LNG Market Supply Pipeline access (china and Europe) Russia Caspian Sea States Geopolitics Europe/Russia Oil Price Merchant Plants Demand European Carbon Management Policies Industrial Demand 22 22
23 Conclusions Markets for conventional oil and oil sands will grow, albeit slowly. Eastern Canada access to Western Canadian Oil dependent on pipeline access. Western Canadian sourced gas evolving into a regional market. Eastern Canadian markets likely to be sourced almost completely by US shale gas. LNG markets highly uncertain due to risk valuation of supply availability 23 23
24 Canadian Energy Research Institute Thank you for your time Please visit us at 24 24
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