Gas and Crude Oil Production Outlook

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1 Gas and Crude Oil Production Outlook COQA/CCQTA Joint meeting October 3-31, 214 San Francisco, California By John Powell Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels Analysis U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

2 EIA mission: independent statistics and analysis EIA was created by the U.S. Congress in 1977 EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment EIA is the Nation's premier source of energy information and, by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. Government EIA does not propose or advocate any policy positions Francisco 2

3 EIA produces data series, analyses, and energy projections Weekly, monthly, and annual data Displays U.S. and regional production, stocks, blender inputs, imports, and exports Real-time analyses Digests important developments in Today in Energy, This Week in Petroleum, Issues & Trends, Country Analysis Briefs Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Forecasts U.S. supplies, demands, imports, stocks, and prices of energy with a horizon of 12 to 24 months Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) Presents 25- to 3-year projection and analysis of U.S. energy supply, demand, and prices International Energy Outlook (IEO) Assesses international energy production and consumption Francisco 3

4 EIA Drilling Productivity Report: Seven key plays account for nearly all recent growth in oil and natural gas production Source: EIA, Drilling Productivity Report, Francisco 4

5 Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) represents a step change in analyzing production metrics Prior to the shale revolution Drillers targeted either oil or natural gas formations Production was relatively stable over a long period from each well Simple rig count was sufficient to monitor and forecast production Drilling in tight formations, the shale revolution New applications of technology: Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing Pad drilling: Multiple wells per rig from one surface location High initial production rates driven by better technology Steep production declines Formations yielding both oil and natural gas Regional differences contrast rig and well productivity John Powell, COQA/CCQTA Joint Meeting, October 3-31, San Francisco 5

6 U.S. shale gas production was 36.4 Bcf/d in August 214, approximately 52% of total U.S. dry production Shale gas production (dry) Billion cubic feet per day Rest of US gas production Marcellus (PA & WV) Haynesville (LA & TX) Eagle Ford (TX) Fayetteville (AR) Barnett (TX) Woodford (OK) Bakken (ND) Antrim (MI, IN, & OH) Utica (OH, PA & WV) Other US 'shale' Shale gas % of total Dry shale gas production as a percent of total dry natural gas production Sources: EIA Natural Gas Monthly data through November, STEO through July 214 and Drilling Info. 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Francisco 6

7 U.S. tight oil production from selected plays has increased to nearly 5% of total U.S. oil production Tight oil production million barrels of oil per day Rest of U.S. Oil Production Eagle Ford (TX) Bakken (MT & ND) Spraberry (TX & NM Permian) Bonespring (TX & NM Permian) Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian) Delaware (TX & NM Permian) Yeso-Glorieta (TX & NM Permian) Niobrara-Codell (CO, WY) Haynesville Utica (OH, PA & WV) Marcellus Woodford (OK) Granite Wash (OK & TX) Austin Chalk (LA & TX) Monterey (CA) Tight oil % of total Tight oil production as a percent of total oil production Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through July 214 and represent EIA s official tight oil estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s). 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Francisco 7

8 EIA forecast that U.S. crude oil production will grow from an average of 7.4 million b/d in 213 to 9.5 million b/d in 215 U.S. crude oil production million barrels of oil per day 1 forecast Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Alaska Gulf of Mexico N. Great Plains West Coast Rocky Mountains Southwest Midcontinent Gulf Coast Northeast Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 214 Francisco 8

9 Roughly 96% of the growth in production between 211 and 213 consisted of sweet grades with API gravity of 4 or above U.S. crude oil production by type million barrels of oil per day 1 forecast API 5+ API 45-5 API 4-45 API 4-5 sweet API 35-4 sweet API 35-4 sour API med-sour API sour California API <27 sweet API <27 sour Source: EIA, DrillingInfo, Colorado DNR, Texas RRC. Francisco 9

10 More than 6% of EIA s production growth forecast for 214 and 215 consists of sweet grades with API gravity of 4+ Annual change in U.S. crude oil production by type million barrels of oil per day 1.2 forecast API 5+ API 45-5 API 4-45 API 4-5 sweet API 35-4 sweet API 35-4 sour API med-sour API sour California API <27 sweet API <27 sour Source: EIA, DrillingInfo, Colorado DNR, Texas RRC. Francisco 1

11 Eagle Ford is driving growth of Gulf Coast API 4-5 production Gulf Coast crude oil production by crude type million barrels of oil per day 2.5 forecast API 5+ Annual distribution of Eagle Ford production percent forecast 1% 2. API 45-5 API % 1.5 API 35-4 sweet 6% API 35-4 sour 1. API med-sour 4%.5 API sour API <27 sweet 2% API <27 sour % Source: EIA, DrillingInfo, Texas RRC. The Eagle Ford formation becomes deeper moving from northwest to southeast, creating an oil window, a wet gas window, and a dry gas window Since 21, producers in the Eagle Ford have moved steadily towards areas with more liquids, as prices have continued to favor oil over natural gas Francisco 11

12 Crude quality varies widely within counties and across the Eagle Ford region Wells drilled API gravity 1,5 1, Well Count 9th Pctl Median 1th Pctl Source: DrillingInfo Inc, Texas RRC, EIA Francisco 12

13 Bakken crude dominates the Northern Great Plains crude quality Crude oil production by well start date Annual distribution of N. Great Plains production million barrels of oil per day percent forecast 1.5 1% forecast API 5+ API 4-45 API 35-4 sweet API 35-4 sour API med-sour API sour API <27 sweet 8% 6% 4% 2%. API <27 sour % Source: EIA, DrillingInfo Although additional API gravity data were not available for the Bakken, industry reports indicate that most Bakken wells produce relatively uniform quality crude oil between 38 and 44 degrees API gravity, and narrowly centered on 41 degrees API gravity Francisco 13

14 Changes in resource assumptions between the reference and high resource case lead to a 76% increase in oil production rates Reference case million barrels per day History Projections High resource/improved technology case million barrels per day History Projections STEO August 214 U.S. crude oil projection 1 8 Tight oil 6 Tight oil 4 Other lower 48 states onshore 4 Other lower 48 states onshore 2 Alaska Lower 48 states offshore Lower 48 states offshore Alaska Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 214 and August 214 Short-Term Energy Outlook Francisco 14

15 U.S. dependence on imported liquids is declining, particularly in the near term U.S. liquid fuels million barrels per day 25 History Projections Consumption Net imports 6% 4% 25% 32% 1 Domestic supply Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 214 Francisco 15

16 U.S. import share of liquid fuels declines sharply because of increased production of tight oil and greater fuel efficiency U.S. liquid fuels supply million barrels per day 25 History Projections Net petroleum and biofuel imports Crude oil production (excluding tight) Natural gas plant liquids Other 12% 12% 12% Note: Other includes refinery gain, biofuels production, all stock withdrawals, and other domestic sources of liquid fuels Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook % 4% 23% 13% 25% 24% Tight oil production 25% 14% 32% 17% 23% 16% Francisco 16

17 U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet per year History 212 Projections 4 3 Consumption 2 Domestic supply 1 Net exports Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 214 Francisco 17

18 Shale gas leads U.S. production growth U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet History Projections Shale gas 15 1 Non-associated onshore Tight gas 5 Non-associated offshore Associated with oil Alaska Coalbed methane Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 214 Francisco 18

19 Results from EIA s International Energy Outlook 214 (IEO214) Reference case World petroleum and other liquid fuels use increases by 38% between 21 and 24, all in the non-oecd Developing Asia (including China and India) and the Middle East account for 85% of the increase Increased demand requires 33 million b/d of additional liquid fuels supplies to reach 11 million b/d by 24 OPEC crude and lease condensate increases by 14 MMbbl/d Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate increases by 1 MMbbl/d Other liquid supplies (from NGPL, biofuels, CTL, GTL, and refinery gain) grow in importance, supplying 17% of total liquids production by 24 Francisco 19

20 China s use of liquid fuels exceeds the United States by 235 liquid fuels consumption in China and the United States, Reference case million barrels per day history 21 projections 25 2 United States 15 China Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 214 Francisco 2

21 Supply composition changes more than demand across cases liquids consumption and production in three price cases, 24 million barrels per day 125 Other Liquids Non-OECD OECD Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate OPEC crude and lease condensate Demand Supply Demand Supply Demand Supply Low Oil Price case (low non-oecd demand) Reference case High Oil Price case (high non-oecd demand) Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 214 Francisco 21

22 The shale revolution, starting in North America, is changing where crude oil and natural gas are produced Source: United States basins from EIA and U.S. Geological Survey, other basins from ARI based on data from various published studies Francisco 22

23 North America leads the world in tight oil production in 212 tight oil production million barrels per day tight oil other oil United States 29% Canada 1% Russia 1% Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, LCI Energy Insight, Canada National Energy Board, and Thane Gustafson s Wheel of Fortune: The Battle for Oil and Power in Russia Francisco 23

24 North America leads the world in shale gas production in 212 shale gas production billion cubic feet per day shale gas other gas United States 39% Canada 15% China < 1% Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration; LCI Energy Insight; Canada National Energy Board; Facts Global Energy Francisco 24

25 Tight oil production will spread to nations outside of the United States and Canada over the projection tight oil production, Reference case million barrels per day MMbbl/d in United States Canada Mexico Russia Argentina China Rest of world Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 214 Francisco 25

26 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook Monthly Energy Review State Energy Portal Today in Energy Francisco 26

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