Update: Global status of CCS. CSLF Policy Group
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1 Update: Global status of CCS CSLF Policy Group Alex Zapantis, General Manager-Asia Pacific, Global CCS Institute October 2016
2 Large-scale CCS projects by region or country Early planning Advanced planning Construction Operation Total North America China Europe Gulf Cooperation Council Rest of World* Total * Includes projects in Algeria, Australia, Brazil and Korea. North America dominates projects in operation and under construction, China has the most projects in planning
3 By the end of 2017, CCS Projects will Store 40Mt CO 2 pa Early planning Advanced planning Construction Operation Total North America These 22 projects have the capacity to store 40Mt of CO2 each year. This is approximately China equivalent 4to the emissions 4 abatement - from: GW of solar PV (if displacing coal) Europe total installed solar PV capacity of France, the United Kingdom and Spain in Gulf Cooperation Council Rest of World* Total * Includes projects in Algeria, Australia, Brazil and Korea. CCS is making a real contribution to emissions abatement now. Assumptions: PV 21% capacity factor, coal emissions intensity 1000kg/MWh. Installed PV Capacity from Solar Power Europe Global Solar Market Outlook
4 Large Scale CCS Projects in Operation Power Generation Boundary Dam White Rose Coal-to-liquids Chemical Iron and steel Synthetic natural gas Fertiliser Oil refining Natural gas processing Enid Fertilizer Great Plains Shute Creek Century Plant Coffeyville Lost Cabin Lula Uthmaniyah Spectra EOR Dedicated Geological Hydrogen Val Verde Sleipner Snøhvit Quest In Salah* Air Products Operating = 1Mtpa of CO 2 (areas of circle are proportional to capacity) * Injection currently suspended ** Storage options under evaluation 15 Large Scale CCS Projects in Operation: ~28Mtpa CO 2
5 Large Scale CCS Projects in Operation + projects under construction Power Generation Boundary Dam Petra Nova Coal-to-liquids Chemical Kemper Illinois Industrial Medicine Bow Iron and steel Synthetic natural gas Fertiliser Oil refining Natural gas processing Enid Fertilizer Great Plains Shute Creek Century Plant Coffeyville Lost Cabin Lula Uthmaniyah Abu Dhabi ACTL Agrium ACTL Sturgeon Gorgon EOR Dedicated Geological Hydrogen Val Verde Sleipner Snøhvit Quest In Salah* Air Products Operating = 1Mtpa of CO 2 (areas of circle are proportional to capacity) * Injection currently suspended ** Storage options under evaluation 7 more projects expected to commence operation in 2016/17: ~40Mtpa CO 2
6 Large Scale CCS Projects in Operation + projects under construction and in planning FutureGen 2.0 Sinopec Shengli Power Generation Boundary Dam Petra Nova Sargas Texas ROAD TCEP Don Valley White Rose Coal-to-liquids Chemical Kemper Illinois Industrial Yanchang Medicine Bow HECA** Peterhead Iron and steel Sinopec Qilu Synthetic natural gas Fertiliser Oil refining Natural gas processing Enid Fertilizer Great Plains Shute Creek Century Plant Coffeyville Lost Cabin Lula Uthmaniyah Abu Dhabi ACTL Agrium ACTL Sturgeon Gorgon Petro China Jilin EOR Dedicated Geological Hydrogen Val Verde Sleipner Snøhvit Quest In Salah* Air Products Operating = 1Mtpa of CO 2 (areas of circle are proportional to capacity) * Injection currently suspended ** Storage options under evaluation Looking forwards, more power projects are in the pipeline than industrial projects.
7 CoP21 The need for CCS will become more visible CoP21 was a significant step forwards: 195 countries agreed a higher level of ambition; limiting global warming to1.5-2 degrees Celcius Established bottom-up architecture for emission reduction targets allowing nations to determine their national contributions Established a process of regular (5 yearly) reviews of national emission reduction targets and an expectation that targets will become more stringent 6DS Gt CO 2 emissions 2DS CCS
8 Mitigation costs more than double in scenarios with limited availability of CCS 150 No CCS + 138% Percentage* Nuclear phase out Limited solar/wind Limited bioenergy + 64% Cost increase under limited technology availability scenarios + 7% + 6% Baseline cost with all mitigation options utilized *Percentage increase in total discounted mitigation costs ( ) relative to default technology assumptions median estimate Source: IPCC Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers, November 2014.
9 A significant task within one generation Global Status of CCS ~4,000 Mtpa of CO 2 captured by CCS by 2040 (IEA 450 Scenario)** 40 large-scale CCS projects - combined capture capacity of approximately 71 Mtpa*: 22 projects in operation or construction (40 Mtpa) 6 projects in advanced planning (6 Mtpa) 12 projects in earlier stages of planning (25 Mtpa) 40 Mtpa *Mtpa = million tonnes per annum Non-OECD OECD **Source: IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives (2016).
10 Renewables a fantastic success story! What can we learn? Electricity Generation from Renewable Energy Rapid increase in renewable electricity generation Data source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2015
11 Renewables a fantastic success story driven by policy Annual Subsidy provided to Renewable Energy (US$ Billion) Significant and sustained policy support has incentivised massive private sector investment, resulting in rapid deployment and cost reductions arising from competition between suppliers and economies of scale. Data source:iea, World Energy Outlook 2014
12 Renewables a fantastic success story! Policy parity is required for CCS to play its part in emission reductions. Annual Subsidy provided to Renewable Energy (US$ Billion In the period 2007 to 2016, value of global policy support for renewable energy deployment was around US$800B. Total value of policy support for deployment of CCS over all time is around $20B Data source:iea, World Energy Outlook 2014, Global CCS Institute
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2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 1972 1986 1989 1996 2000 2008 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Val Verde Natural Gas Plant Shute Creek Gas Processing Facility Enid Fertilazer CO2-EOR Project Sleipner CO2 Storage Project
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