Energy as a Global Issue

Transcription

1 Energy as a Global Issue Summer School «Giacomo Ciamician» Sesto-Sexten (BZ), Italy June 22 rd 26 th, 2015 Vanni Lughi Department of Engineering and Architecture, University of Trieste, Italy vlughi@units.it

2 The key strategic framework

3 Energy as a Global Issue

4 Energy: A global issue - complexity Health Water Environment Security Energy Economy Food Population

5 Energy and Health

6 Energy and Population

7 Energy and Population DeLong JP et al, PLoS ONE 5, e13206 (2010) Installed power per capita [W] Energy might not be sufficient to sustain stabilization of the population

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12 Energy, stability and security

13 Energy, stability and security Center for preventive action, US Council on Foreign Relations

14 Energy and the environment Emissions and climate change Mauna Loa observatory, Hawaii

15 Energy and the environment Emissions and climate change Carbon concentration always changes over time but never at the rate and to the levels that we have seen over the past 50 years

16 Energy and the environment Emissions and climate change Carbon emissions are antropogenic

17 Energy and the environment Emissions and climate change Moberg et al., Nature 433 (2005) Carbon concentration and temperature are correlated

18 Energy and the environment Emissions and climate change Temperature seems to be raising

19 Energy and the environment Emissions and climate change

20 Energy and the environment Emissions and climate change

21 The true evidence for global warming

22 Energy, Environment, and Economy

23 Energy and Economy

24 Energy and Food Food vs Energy dilemma (food cropland substituted by energy crops) Link between prices of food and prices of energy

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26 Energy: A global issue - complexity Health Water Environment Security Energy Economy Food Population

27 Energy and complexity - a different standpoint - Complexity arising from large number of players and strong interconnectedness E.g.: Integration of different energy sources Smart grid

28 Energy Supply Chain

29 Energy Supply Chain Electricity

30 Energy Supply Chain Energy for transportation

31 Energy Supply Chain Thermal energy

32 Energy Supply Chain «Production» (Transformation) Storage Distribution End use Losses

33 Complexity of the Energy Supply Chain

34 Complexity of the Energy Supply Chain MASTER IN COMPLEX ACTIONS NEXT GENERATION LEADERS SISSA TRIESTE

35 Complexity of the Energy Supply Chain MASTER IN COMPLEX ACTIONS NEXT GENERATION LEADERS SISSA TRIESTE

36 Complexity of the Energy Supply Chain

37 Complexity of the Energy Supply Chain - global

38 Energy Supply Chain - Definitions

39 Losses in the energy supply chain

40 Efficiency in transformation and distribution (activate animation)

41 End-of-chain energy efficiency and saving The value more than doubles! (activate animation)

42 Energy: towards a carbon-free system

43 Global Energy Data

44 Long-term energy demand growth

45 Energy Transitions

46 Energy: Orders of Magnitude

47 Energy: Common units

48 Primary energy world consumption Million tonnes oil equivalent BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 BP p.l.c. 2015

49 Mtoe Global Energy Consumption World OECD BRICS Enerdata Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2014

50 Primary energy regional consumption pattern 2014 Percentage BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 BP p.l.c. 2015

51 Energy demand: Global imbalance

52 Primary energy sources: price dynamics

53 Price dynamics: the effect of shale gas

54 Price of energy from new sources

55 Price and Grid Parity Lessons learned from the photovoltaic technology Breyer C, Gerlach A. Global overview on grid parity Progress in photovoltaic: research and applications John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. DOI /pip.1254

56 Price and consumption Consumption per capita (toe), 2014 statista.com; BP energy statistics review 2015

57 Price and Subsidies Global subsidies for fossil fuels : 523 B$ in 2011 (+ 27% from 2010) Global subsidies for renewables: 88 B$ in 2011 (+ 24% from 2010) International Energy Agency Renewable Energy Status Report 2013

58 Energy Trading Dynamics

59 Energy Trading Dynamics

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63 Future Trends

64 Scenarios (GEA)

65 Scenario Shell (source-focused)

66 Scenario IEA (2013)

67 Scenario WWF (EcoFYS)

68 Scenarios by Enerdata Global Energy Scenarios, Enerdata, 2015

69 Scenarios by Enerdata Global Energy Scenarios, Enerdata, 2015

70 Energy: towards a carbon-free system Global Energy Scenarios, Enerdata, 2015

71 Energy: what happened in 2014 Stabilization of energy consumption and of CO2 emissions, despite economic growth Interesting cases: EU28, India, China Global Energy Trends, Enerdata, 2015

72 Energy: what happened in 2014 Decrease of coal demand Gas demand was stable Global Energy Trends, Enerdata, 2015

73 A possible game changer: shale gas Projected shale gas extraction in EU-27 Estimates from: Macroeconomic impacts of shale gas extraction in the EU, 2014

74 Fossil fuel reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios at end 2014 Years BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 BP p.l.c. 2015

75 Oil is in fact going to end

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77 Alternative resources Hydropower - Nuclear power - Geothermal enrgy - Tidal energy (non-solar alternative resources) Wind power Photovoltaics Biomass Waves

78 Alternative resources Estimated Renewable Energy Share of Global Final Energy Consumption, 2013 REN21, 2015, Renewables 2015 Global Status Report

79 Alternative resources Average Annual Growth Rates of Renewable Energy Capacity and Biofuels Production, End REN21, 2015, Renewables 2015 Global Status Report

80 Alternative resources Estimated Renewable Energy Share of Global Electricity Production, End REN21, 2015, Renewables 2015 Global Status Report

81 Alternative resources

82 Energy Supply Chain «Production» (Transformation) Storage Distribution End use Losses

83 Imagine Future Scenarios Production Photovoltaics Electric grid Use Energy Storage Water electrolysis Solar thermodynamic Storage, Transportation, and Distribution (electricity) Fuel Cells Storage, Transportation, Reconversion (Hydrogen) Solar thermal Transportation (heat) short distance Biofuels Transportation (fuel)

84 Concluding remarks

85 Trends Diversification of the energy sources (mostly alternative/renewable) Mini- and microgeneration «Democratization» of energy Principle of locality of the source Integration of energy sources Higher complexity Storage Large scale to compensate unpredictability of renewable resources Small scale to enable reliability of local (integrated) systems Key role of social aspects! (see for example the case of photovoltaics in Italy)