Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Wetlands Impacts

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1 Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Wetlands Impacts James Mois Diecto, Belle W Bauch Institute fo Maine & Coastal Sciences Univesity of South Caolina

2 Sep 2007 Souce: National Snow and Ice Data Cente

3 The Aea of Geenland Expeiencing Summe Melting Has Been Inceasing Significantly The melt aea in 2007 was about 10% lage than in 2005!

4 Models poject shap eductions in Actic sea icebut the sea ice is eteating even moe apidly 2007 * ~ -40% Regional models of sea ice extent ae pojecting that summe sea ice could be completely gone in a decade o less-- fa soone than pojected by the global models Souce: Sotebeg, cited by J. Eystein--2005

5 Glacies ae Deceasing in Most Regions of the Wold, Adding to Inceases in Sea Level Data fom NOAA, gaphic ceated by

6 ca. 1.5 cm/y ca cm/y

7 Tide gauge and satellite data on sea level Aveage ate of sea level ise: : 1.8 mm /y : 3.1 mm /y Late flash: Late flash: The satellite-measued ate of ise duing 2007 was nea 4 mm/y, about double the aveage ate fo the 20th centuy

8 Paleoclimate infomation suppots the intepetation that the wamth of the last half centuy is unusual in at least the pevious 1300 yeas. The last time the pola egions wee significantly wame than pesent fo an extended peiod (about 125,000 yeas ago), eductions in pola ice volume led to 4 to 6 m of sea level ise. What is the ange in possible futue ates of sea-level ise? What should we plan fo? 1. Consevative IPCC ates * (excluding Geenland and Antactic): cm/y 2. Rhamstof (2007) including ice melt: cm/y * A2 scenaio (800 ppm CO 2 by 2100)

9 The complete disappeaance of the 2-mile-thick (3-kilomete-thick) Geenland Ice Sheet would cause an estimated 23-foot (7-mete) ise in global sea levels Antactica holds 90 pecent of the wold's ice, and the disappeaance of even its smalle West Antactic ice sheet could aise woldwide sea levels by an estimated 20 feet. Melting of both Antactic ice sheets would aise sea level nealy 70 metes.

10 The Texas coast, with land flooded by a 1 m incease in mean sea level coded in ed.

11 The Texas coast, with land flooded by a 2 m incease in mean sea level coded in ed.

12 Coastal wetlands in Texas declined fom 1.7M ha in the 1950s to <1.3M by the ealy 1990s. 59% of the loss occued in the Galveston Bay system. A Galveston aea salt mash Photo cedit: Texas A&M Univesity Galveston

13 0.6 Galveston tide gage data Monthly Mean High Wate (m) Slope=0.8 cm/y Date

14 Two altenative esponses to sea level ise ae possible If the wetlands keep pace with SLR, expect this. Potection of land magins fom eosion Maintaining ecosystem sevices

15 O if the wetlands do not keep pace with SLR, expect this. Geate eosion of land magins Loss of ecosystem sevices Geate eosion of land magins Loss of ecosystem sevices

16 Sediment-Elevation Tables (SETs) ae being used to monito the elevation of the mash suface in contol and fetilized plots.

17 MSL changed diection in 1999/2000 Sediment accetion is a function of biomass density on the mash suface and flood fequency & duation. Note that the mash was not able to keep up with the apid ate of SLR pio to cm/y is pobably about the limit in this aea.

18 A natual example of Poductivity=f(elevation) B=aD+bD 2 +c Gowth South Caolina Biomass (g/m 2 ) Rel. Elevation Spatina altenifloa Noth Inlet PKS 2006 Best fit MSL 2 = 0.88 B s = D -0.17D 2 MHHW max. monthly Elevation (cm el. to NAVD88)

19 Salt mash pimay poduction is highly vaiable (vaying with anomalies in mean sea level and tidal amplitude) and at Noth Inlet has been tending up, leading us to think that mashes hee have not kept pace with SLR. Annual Poduction (g m -2 ) Noth Inlet High Mash Sites Goat Island Oyste Landing slope=31 g m -2 y Yea

20 Sea level anomalies contibute to the inteannual vaiability in mash biogeochemical function. Shown hee is the annual NPP of Spatina alteifloa in the low mash as a function of mean high wate level at Plum Island (left) and Noth Inlet, SC (ight). Net Abovegound Pimay Poduction (g m -2 y -2 ) Plum Island 2 =0.47 p<.07 slope=124 g/cm Mean High Wate Level (cm) Net Abovegound Pimay Poduction (g m -2 y -2 ) =0.24 p<0.001 slope=24 g/cm Noth Inlet Mean High Wate Level (cm)

21 The peceding inteactions ae summaized by the following system of equations (MEM2): inoganic S = (q + ksbs )D k t + B oganic 2 Bs = ad + bd + c B D Root:shoot atio m D + d ; B = B B Sedimentation ate Abovegound biomass (m D = B s + s = α (q + k βk s B s B )D + k B d ) Bulk density Root:Shoot Quotient (g/g) B/Bs = md + d Depth Below MHW (cm) Z S 1 = t t B D Change in suface elevation In equilibium, Z = t ( = ate of SLR) o: = D( αq + a{ D[ αk s 2 (c[ d k + D(k s + k m )] + D{ bd(d k + Dks + Dk m ) + a[ d k + D(k s + k m )] + q }) + k m ( α β )] + d k ( α β )} + bd{ D[ αk + k m ( α β )] + d k ( α β )}) + c{ D[ αk + k m ( α β )] + d k ( α β )} s s In wods: the depth of the mash suface inceases as the ate of SLR inceases.

22 Thee is a tipping point Equilibium Depth (cm) biological contol physical contol tipping point Equilibium Depth (cm) optimum depth Rate of Sea-Level Rise (cm/y) Biomass (g/m 2 )

23 Thee is a tipping point, and it is sensitive to tidal amplitude (biomass gowth cuve). 80 Equilibium Depth (cm) Tide Range 20 cm 0 Tide Range 140 cm Rate of Sea-Level Rise (cm/y)

24

25 Pamlico mashes in touble? Biomass (g/m 2 ) PKS Spatina altenifloa maximum monthly wate level B s = D -0.15D 2 Cuent Platfom MSL Relative Depth (cm) Note, depth below high wate is positive Equilibium Depth (cm) without plants with plants Rate of Sea-Level Rise (cm/y)

26 Coutesy of Angela Sunley, Texas Geneal Land Office

27 Coutesy of Angela Sunley, Texas Geneal Land Office

28 Coutesy of Angela Sunley, Texas Geneal Land Office

29 Conclusions 1. The ate of sea-level ise including loss of ice fom Geenland and Antactica is likely to add cm/y (Rhamstof 2007) to global sea-level ise. Consequently, MSL on the Texas coast could ise by 1 to 2 m in the next centuy. 2. Salt mashes will tansgess (migate) inland as sea level ises. Thei aeial extent and, thus, thei ecosystem sevices will depend on thei ability to maintain an equilibium with MSL. 3. It can be shown theoetically that the tipping point fo mash disintegation occus at a lowe ate of sea-level ise in micotidal than in macotidal estuaies. Hence, Gulf Coast wetlands ae paticulaly vulneable to sea-level ise and subsidence. Funding Souces:

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