OME Context Present situation and prospects Recommendations

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1 RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE MEDITERRANEAN REGION: Situation and prospects Dr Houda BEN JANNET ALLAL, RE&SD OME Eng. Henri BOYE, MEDAD Workshop Data Gathering on Renewable Energies for the New Member States and Candidate Countries November 27, Istanbul,Turkey OME Context Present situation and prospects Recommendations

Demography in the Mediterranean Basin 4 millions inhabitants 35 3

2 Demography in the Mediterranean Basin 4 millions inhabitants SEMCs NMCs Source: Plan Bleu, OME

3 Economic Development in the Mediterranean GDP using exchange rates (billion $2) SEMCs NMCs Avg. growth per year Total MED. 2.9% NMCs 2.7%; SEMCs 3.7% 12% 88% 13% 87% 2-25 Avg. growth per year: Total MED. 2.1% NMCs 1.7%; SEMCs 3.8% 14% 86% 16% 84% Average growth per year: Total MED. 3.% NMCs 2.5%; SEMCs 4.9% 17% 83% 19% 81% 23% 77% Oil (Mt) & Gas (bcm) Reserves Total Oil Reserves = 6145 Mt Total Gas Reserves = 834 bcm Source: Reserves from BP & CEDIGAZ Oil Reserves Gas Reserves

4 High Renewable Energy Resources The SEMCs are located in the world s solar belt and have an excellent solar availability. The annual average global solar radiation over the region ranges from about 13 kwh/m²/year on the Mediterranean coast to a more than 32 kwh/m²/year in the South and desert areas. The direct normal solar radiation reaches (2-32) kwh/m²/year with low levels of cloudiness. The total sunshine hours ranges between 2,65 and 3,6 hr/year. High Renewable Energy Resources Wind velocities (m/s) Wind potential (MW) Source: OME Wind characteristics in the MEDREC region Algeria Egypt Libya Morocco Tunisia Turkey na 2, na 6, 2, 88 (technical) and 1 to 12 economic

5 High Renewable Energy Resources Biomass: Total waste resources potential is very high in the region. Some tentative estimation for their energy valorisation potential has been carried out in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey indicating significant results. The potential for waste resources in Egypt is estimated at 47 Mt per year. In Morocco, urban wastes are estimated at 3 Mt per year. Non-commercial biomass potential is also relatively important, especially in Morocco where one third of the country s total energy requirements are currently met with biomass. The region is thus losing many thousands of forest each year (3, hectares per year in Morocco). But in general, biomass data for the region are not always available and when available, they are of poor quality High Renewable Energy Resources Hydropower: The most important technical potential of hydropower in the region is available in Turkey (433 GW), Egypt (2.8 GW) and Morocco (2.5 GW). Existing generating power capacity in Turkey is 12.9 GW. In Egypt, however, potential for small hydro is rather small and does not exceed 25 MW. On contrary, the large potential in Morocco concerns small hydro and should be exploited in the near future. In Turkey, 4114 MW hydroelectric capacity are under construction Geothermal: Geothermal potential is still not explored in the region except in Turkey. According to the information gathered, important potential is available in Turkey and also in Algeria and Morocco. Some potentially exploitable sites have already been located in these countries

6 Mediterranean: Energy Demand by Primary Source (197 to 25) Mtoe in 25 Nuclear 14% Hydro 2% RE 4% Coal 12% 8 7 Nat gas 25% Oil 43% 6 (Mtoe) Share of RE in total primary energy consumption (North Africa) 25 Nat. Gas 36% TPES = 218 Mtep Other RE 4% RE 6% Crude Oil 44% Coal 14% Hydro 2%

7 SEMCs: Energy Consumption by Sector 18 SEMCs: Sectoral share in Residential 26% Others 11% Industries 36% Others 11% x 1 toe Transport 27% Residential 26% Transport 27% Industries 36% Mediterranean: Electricity Demand (197 to 25) TWh in Hydro 13% RE 4% Coal 19% Oil 1% Nuclear 28% Nat. Gas 26% (TWh)

8 Share of RE in electricity generation (North Africa) large hydro MW PV system,1% Small hydro Wind farm Geotherma,3% 2,% l,2% Biomass,5% 12 MW 1 8 Total power generation = 55 TWh Large hydro 97,% Small hydro 145 MW PV system 12 MW Wind farm 239 MW Biomass 136 MW Geothermal 15 MW Large hydro Small hydro PV system Wind farm Biomass Geothermal Access to Energy: important efforts for Rural Electrification in the SEMCs 12% % Rural Electrification (%). 8% 6% 4% 2% % Tunisia Moroccco Lebanon Jordan Israel Syria Libya Egypt Algeria Middle East Developing Asia Latin A. World Source: OME, IEA Outlook 26

9 Mediterranean: Primary Energy Demand 25 (953 Mtoe) Nuclear 13% Gas 26% Hydro&RE 4% Coal 11% Oil 46% Electricity Production 25 (178 TWh) 28% gas & 16% RE 22 (136 Mtoe) Electricity Production 22 (275 TWh) 41% gas & 19% RE Nuclear 11% Gas 31% Hydro&RE 6% Coal 12% Oil 4% Source: OME, 27 Mediterranean: Electricity Demand 3 25 SEMCs NMCs 2-25 Avg. growth per year: Total MED. 3.3% NMCs 2.6%; SEMCs 5.5% Average growth per year: Total MED. 2.9% NMCs 1.6%; SEMCs 5.9% 39% 2 (TWh) Avg. growth per year Total MED. 4.5% NMCs 3.9%; SEMCs 8.3% 23% 25% 3% 1 5 8% 92% 11% 89% 16% 84% 77% 75% 7% 61%

Electricity accounts for 4% of additional TPES 35 Mtoe 3 25 2 15 1 5 N.

10 Electricity accounts for 4% of additional TPES 35 Mtoe N.Gas Oil Coal Mediterranean : Power Production (by source) TWh TWh (412 GW) Gas 28% RE 16% 275TWh (612 GW) Gas 41% RE 19% RE + 33 TWh Gas +52 TWh 5 Oil Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro &RE

11 RE Electricity Production NMCs SEMCs RE Electricity Production 2-25 Total additional capacity : 61 MW RE additional capacity : 133 MW Wind : 76 MW (mostly Spain) TWh TWh 27.2% per year Mtoe SEMCs & NMCs : RE share in the Energy Balance 2% SEMCs 18% 17% RE 16% Hydro 13% % share of RE (incl. Hydro) 14% 14 12% 11 1% 8% 7% 1 8% 6% 6% 6% % 1 5% 4% % % Share (% Mtoe ,% NMCS 6,1% RE Hydro % share of RE (incl. Hydro) 5,6% 2 6,1% 6,% ,6% 34 6,8% 6,9% 39 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Share (% % %

Energy dependency is increasing 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 1% 9% Global Energy Dependency (%) NMC Importers SEMC Importers 1971 198 199 1995 2 25 21 22 Oil Dependency (%) 1% 8% Natural Gas

12 Energy dependency is increasing 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 1% 9% Global Energy Dependency (%) NMC Importers SEMC Importers Oil Dependency (%) 1% 8% Natural Gas Dependency (%) 8% NMC Importers 6% NMC Importers 7% 6% SEMC Importers 4% SEMC Importers 5% 2% 4% % The region is also facing climate change problems Source : UNF, Sigma XI, 27

Mediterranean 3 SEMCs NMCs 25 CO2 Emissions (in Mt CO2) 2 15 16% 26%

13 which are expected to be more challenging in the future Source : IPCCC, 27 WGI CO 2 Emissions from Energy Consumption in the Mediterranean 3 SEMCs NMCs 25 CO2 Emissions (in Mt CO2) % 26% 32% 33% 38% 45% % 89% 84% 74% 68% 67% 62% 55% Source: OME

14 On current trends, we are on course for an unstable, dirty & expensive energy future quote from IEA Executive Director A more sustainable future is needed A more sustainable future is possible High potential for energy efficiency The electricity interconnection may help Renewable energy have also an important role to play OME is working on these issues through its RESDC

15 No single solution. a portfolio of technologies is required Efficiency in buildings, Industry and End- Use products Energy efficiency in the transport sector Advanced power generation and grid Solutions depend on Countries, Resources, Needs, Choices, Market, Timing, Infrastructure Renewable energy technologies Biomass, CHP CO2 Capture and Storage RE in SEMCs: high potential but relatively modest present situation Characteristics of wind resources in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries Algeria Egypt Libya Morocco Tunisia Turkey Wind speed (m/s) 1.5 Wind potential (MW) Na 2 Na (technical) and 1 to 12 economic RE installed capacity 26 in the SEMCs (excluding large hydro) MW Algeria Egypt Libye Morocco Tunisia Turkey Small hydro ( MW) Wind (41 MW) * 2 5 PV systems ( MW) Geothermal 2.4 Biomass 36.1 Source: OME * 27 data (6 MW have been inaugurated on April 27) Source: OME

16 Relative Cost of Electricity Generation from Wind and Solar CCGT Coal Steam Wind Concentrated Solar Power Solar PV on good sites US cents per kwh Wind power generation can already compete in certain locations, Concentrated solar power is not far away in the sunbelt. Solar photovoltaics has costs decreasing by up to 18% with every doubling of cumulative production, but as yet remains economic only in remote locations. Source: World Energy Outlook 26 and IEA databases RE added value to the energy mix enhancing security of supply - both for geopoliticalconcentrated in few countries - and infrastructure- power plants, pipeline, sea straits allowing energy sources diversification & reducing imports for consumers/ deferring production for exporters mitigating risks in current energy portfolio and trends, due to volatility and instability of fossil prices; creating framework for investment, enhancing industrial competitiveness and opportunities for export, creating new jobs, favouring economic development advancing environmental targets; providing unique access to energy services;

17 Barriers need to be removed, particularly Institutional and legal barriers: in most of the countries, there is no institutional and regulatory framework specific to RE Competing resources: RE are competing with conventional energies relatively abundant, widely deployed and subsidised in several countries of the region. But, RE are most often already competitive in isolated rural areas Regional and international context is favourable Regional: EC, EIB, MEDREP, MEDENER, MEDITEP, OME Kyoto Protocol: the Clean Development Mechanism, an opportunity not yet fully exploited The Mediterranean Strategy for Sustainable Development: a framework in favour to RE and EE RE perspectives are encouraging

18 RE perspectives are encouraging in the SEMCs RE specific law Targets (not mandatory) Orientations for RE in the SEMCs Algeria Egypt Libya Morocco Tunisia Turkey Yes Ongoing No Ongoing Yes Yes 5% of power generation based on solar energy by 21 2% RE share in electricity demand by 22 6% of RE share in electricity demand by 22 RE: 1% share in TPES and 2% in electricity generation by 212 Yes, by technology (wind, SWH, ) : MW RE : MW Feed in tariffs Yes Yes No No No Yes RE funds Yes Foreseen RE subsidies Yes (SWH) R&D law Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Public awareness programmes Yes Yes (strong) Source: OME Conclusions A sustainable energy future is possible with a portfolio of clean and efficient technologies, RE definitely among them. The task will take substantial time and it will require significant investments costs. But Business As Usual would cost more!! The task is urgent: it must be carried out before a new generation of inefficient and high-carbon energy infrastructure is locked into place. Delaying action by 1 years would reduce the impact on emissions in 23 by three-quarters Implementing sustainable scenarios will require a transformation in: the way power is generated, the way homes, offices and factories are built and use energy, the technologies used for transport. It will also require a strong co-operation between the North and the South countries to achieve the results implied

19 Recommendations -1- Realistic regional targets for EE, RE and access to electricity Adapted institutional and legislative frameworks involving all stakeholders Regional programme of implementation and measures strengthening in the fields of CC, RE and EE Techno-economic studies for integrated euromediterranean projects for solar and wind development in the SEMCS Recommendations -2- Strengthened regional cooperation Regional carbon fund Regional programme for awareness and dissemination of information Supervisory Board The OME RESDC is working in this direction by initiating regional projects on several issues related to RE development in the region in cooperation with euro-mediterranean partners and with support of the EC

Renewable energy perspectives in the mediterranean countries - the Mediterranean Solar Plan. Dr Houda Ben Jannet Allal

Renewable energy perspectives in the mediterranean countries - the Mediterranean Solar Plan Dr Houda Ben Jannet Allal As of January 2012 OME Membership CROSS-ROADS FOR GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS AND SEVERAL