CCU IN THE EU ETS: RISK OF CO 2 LAUNDERING PREVENTING A PERMANENT CO 2 SOLUTION

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1 CCU IN THE EU ETS: RISK OF CO 2 LAUNDERING PREVENTING A PERMANENT CO 2 SOLUTION KEITH WHIRISKEY, BELLONA EUROPA. KEITH@BELLONA.ORG /6/ ROUNDTABLE: POWER TO LIQUIDS - PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? 1

2 USING CO 2 WHAT S IN A NAME? CCS Carbon Capture & Storage CCUS Carbon Capture Use and Storage CCU(S) Carbon Capture Use and Something CCU Carbon Capture & Use 7/6/17 ROUNDTABLE: POWER TO LIQUIDS - PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? 2

3 WHAT S IN A CCU? Power to Gas, P2G, P2X, P2L, Synthetic fuels, Synthetic methane Electro-fuels CCUF (CCU Fuels) Renewable fuels of non biological origin (REFUNOBIO) Waste based fossil fuels (Steel off-gasses) CCU Plastics, CO 2 Polymers CO 2 mineralisation, CCU aggregates Carbon nanotubes CO 2 use in algae, bio, feed 7/6/17 ROUNDTABLE: POWER TO LIQUIDS - PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? 3

4 WHEN DID CCU BECOME THE THING? Wuppertal: Greenpeace UBA: availability Energy: of process materials The water and carbon dioxide In addition report shows to wind that gas if (power the Ruhr to region gas), (Germany) for example, were power to transition to heat, power to synthetic to methane liquid In the long (for in example, order to utilise term, a GHG-neutral conversion all COto energy 2 arising renewable system from cannot fuels) the obtain industrial or power the carbon sector chemicals (iron dioxide and (chemical needed steel for industry, base power-to-gas materials). chemical technology In industry, the case of refineries, renewable from fossil cement CO fuels 2 sources and chemicals, lime such industry, as power coking however, stations. plants), Carbon power the to dioxide electricity gas in would the generation form have of to required hydrogen be obtained to or produce methane from biogenic the is hydrogen often sources, the basis such would for as biogas further exceed plants, syntheses that and of from the entire processrelated CO 2 emissions, e.g. by a from factor the of state of North-Rhine-Westphalia six. cement industry. 7/6/17 ROUNDTABLE: POWER TO LIQUIDS - PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? 4

5 WHAT ABOUT THE CLIMATE? Its complicated: CO 2 CO 2 7/6/17 ROUNDTABLE: POWER TO LIQUIDS - PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? 5

6 CCU AND THE ETS CCU can link emissions from one sector to another CO 2 captured and use in one sector can then be emitted in another Different CO 2 reduction policies can become entangled or shortcircuited 7/6/17 ROUNDTABLE: POWER TO LIQUIDS - PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? 6

7 CARBON PRICING EFFECTS FOSSIL FUELS TO LESSER OR GREATER EXTENT 7/6/17 ROUNDTABLE: POWER TO LIQUIDS - PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? 7

8 DIFFERENT SECTORS HAVE MASSIVELY DIFFERENT IMPLICIT CARBON PRICES CCU Emissions Arbitrage 370 per ton of CO 2 In 2014, a report authored by the ICCT concluded that to reach a similar level of technology innovation in ICE transport as expected for the EU s 2020/21 CO 2 target of 95 grams per kilometre a price of about 370 per ton of CO 2 would be required (Mock and Tietge 2014) EU EUA Moving CO 2 from industrial sources to transportation would provide the automotive sector with greatly discounted CO 2 emissions. Audi, a large German car manufacturer, is already pursuing this strategy with the promotion of P 2 X derived ediesel. 7/6/17 ROUNDTABLE: POWER TO LIQUIDS - PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? 8

9 ETS RULES, EUROPEAN COURT, BERLIN COURT: WHEN IS CO 2 EMITTED COUNTED AS EMITTED? German Family owned calk manufacture PCC is used in the Paper industry, healthcare, plastics Precipitated Calcium Carbonate (PCC) CO 2 used for the production of PCC is chemically bound in that stable product In 2012 Schaefer asked the German authorities, as this CO2 is not emitted may they be subtracted from ETS monitoring plan? 7/6/17 ROUNDTABLE: POWER TO LIQUIDS - PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? 9

10 IN 2017 ECJ = CCU CO 2 NOT EMITTED (IN THIS CASE) Press: ECJ acknowledges that CCU is not subject to emissions trading. ; Bombshell in the ETS ; ECJ rewards innovation in the ETS ; SK s lawyers more cautious, refer only to the lime industry But: ECJ chose to invalidate provisions only for PCC; for all other examples CCU they stand despite the arguably transferable reasoning German emissions regulators will continue to apply rules in all other cases, for the time being Art. 49(1), 2 nd sentence and point 10(B) of Annex IV Monitoring Reg. are invalid in so far as they systematically include [ ] CO 2 transferred to another installation for the production of [PCC] in the emissions of the lime combustion installation, regardless of whether or not that CO 2 is released into the atmosphere. CO 2 CO 2 7/6/17 ROUNDTABLE: POWER TO LIQUIDS - PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? 10

11 METHODOLOGY TO ASSESS P 2 X (1) The potential for CO 2 reductions and decarbonisation effectiveness (2) Deployment potential and scale (3) Knock-on effects on other technology pathways and wider societal and environmental consequences 7/6/17 ROUNDTABLE: POWER TO LIQUIDS - PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? 11

12 (1) THE POTENTIAL FOR CO 2 REDUCTIONS AND DECARBONISATION EFFECTIVENESS DO WE COUNT THE CO 2? 90% + CO 2 reduction OR Max 50%n CO 2 reduction Source: Benedikt Stefansson Director of Business Development, CO 2 recycling 7/6/17 ROUNDTABLE: POWER TO LIQUIDS - PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? 12

13 POTENTIAL FOR CO 2 REDUCTIONS, COUNTING THE CO 2 EXAMPLE From 1 January 2018 that greenhouse gas emission saving shall be at least 60 % for biofuels and bioliquids produced in installations in which production started on or after 1 January CO 2 reduction of 40% P 2 X - Counting the CO 2 in and CO 2 out, P 2 X with industrial CO 2 source does not come close to the 60% minimum target for biofuels CO 2 reduction of 25% Source: Nils Rettenmaier & Thomas Fröhlich, IFEU, "LCA in science and policy - its power and potential pitfalls" 7/6/17 ROUNDTABLE: POWER TO LIQUIDS - PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? 13

14 (2) DEPLOYMENT POTENTIAL AND SCALE What are the resource inputs for P 2 X Renewable Electricity (lot s) A simple assessment shows using P 2 X to reach 3% fuel mixing of EU road transport would require 164 TWh. This is equivalent to consuming all current German renewable electricity generation from Wind (77.8 TWh), Solar (37.5 TWh) and Biomass (77.8TWh). 3% fuel switching is consistent with the renewable energy transport fuel goal of the REDII, overall 6.8% goal. EU road transport 3305 TWh x 3% = 99 TWh of Power to liquid 60% conversion efficiency input electricity requirement = 164 TWh 7/6/17 ROUNDTABLE: POWER TO LIQUIDS - PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? 14

15 REVIEWING THE CCU (P 2 X) LOBBIES NUMBERS Putting 2.1 billion tonnes of CO 2 into fuels would require all of the electricity generated on the planet today Source: Issam Dairanieh, CO 2 Sciences, "Market potential and environmental impact of CO2 conversion technologies" 7/6/17 ROUNDTABLE: POWER TO LIQUIDS - PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? 15

16 DO WE HAVE BETTER WAYS TO USE RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY FOR THE SAME SERVICE? Electric vehicles (EVs) greatly outperform Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) cars using synthetic fossil fuels in the conversion of renewable electricity to kilometres. Synthetic fossil fuel manufacture with captured industrial CO 2 is ~60% efficient. (Stefansson 2015) ICE cars have an efficiency of 30%, but generally lower. Driving style and idling can reduce efficiency further. (EPA 2014) Electric power transmission and distribution losses in EU-28 (% of output) is 6.5% in (Worldbank 2017) EVs have an efficiency of 81%. (Samferdselsdepartementet 2017) 7/6/17 ROUNDTABLE: POWER TO LIQUIDS - PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? 16

17 DOES P 2 X HELP SHAVE OUR RENEWABLE PEAKS? P 2 X adds baseload electricity demand reducing the flexibility of the electricity system and consuming fossil electricity generation in times of low renewable generation Much better flexibility options exist for managing increasing renewables in the system. i.e Smart Grids Increase in the flexibility on the demand side and develop electricity applications that can capitalize on low electricity prices and respond to short-term price variations. Power to Heat is one example that meets these requirements and is a cost and socially effective way of using the surplus renewable electricity generation (CE Delft, 2015). Smart charging of electric vehicles can also contribute to the balance of a low-carbon power grid by ensuring flexible consumption patterns on the demand side (E- Mobility Platform, 2015) Consultant reports on the commercial viability of P 2 X rely on periods of oversupply and low wholesale prices in the electricity market. In addition, commercial operations of P 2 X are expected to have high utilisation to recover sunk investment costs, estimates 5,000 to 6,000 operating hours a year are required for positive business case. P 2 X is linked to the CO 2 producers operation 7/6/17 ROUNDTABLE: POWER TO LIQUIDS - PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? 17

18 DOES P 2 X REACH ANY OF THE CRITERIA? (1) The potential for CO 2 reductions and decarbonisation effectiveness Not sufficient CO 2 avoidance to be compatible with 1.5 o C or 2 o C climate goals (2) Deployment potential and scale The scale of deployment for P 2 X is limited by huge energy input requirement. Their production and use is highly inefficient and consumes vast amounts of energy in the form of electricity. Energy which could be put to better use, both socially, economically and climactically (3) Knock-on effects on other technology pathways and wider societal and environmental consequences P 2 X fuels requires the continuation of internal combustion engines in vehicles. P 2 X promotion would thus retard available solutions for the timely development of a low- and zero-emission transport sector. P 2 X will remain uncommercial unless preferentially treated by tax, subsidies, or mandated. At the expense of investing in emerging advanced export technologies and low carbon infrastructure, such as electro mobility, increased electricity grid flexibility, deep decarbonisation of industry 7/6/17 ROUNDTABLE: POWER TO LIQUIDS - PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? 18

19 CCU IS MUCH MORE THEN SYNTHETIC FUELS 7/6/17 ROUNDTABLE: POWER TO LIQUIDS - PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? 19

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