The Future of Oil. It s a Fossil-Fueled World

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1 The Future of Oil Roland N. Horne Energy Resources Engineering Stanford University 1 It s a Fossil-Fueled World 6% 6% 29% 35% Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydroelectric 24% BP Statistical Review

2 140 Crude Oil Price $ money of the day $ 2007 US$/bbl BP Statistical Review The Future? 1. Production and reserves. How much oil is there, and how long will it last? 2. Technology. How can we produce more of the oil in place? 3. Manpower. Who will work on these problems? 4 2

3 1. Production and Reserves How much do we have? How long will it last? Peak oil Business as usual 5 Peak Oil Lahererre, 2003 [ 6 3

4 Peak Oil World, outside of swing producers - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, UAE Lahererre, 2003 [ 7 World, excluding extra-heavy oil Peak Oil Lahererre, 2006 [ 8 4

5 Billion bbl World Proven Oil Reserves Oil and Oil Sands Alberta oil sands added OPEC restates reserves BP Statistical Review Technical vs. Political Reserves Lahererre, 2007 [ 10 5

6 World Oil (+NGL) Production 120, , ,000 90,000 kb/d (EIA, June 2008) IEA WEO 2006 kb/d 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40, Energy Information Administration, July 2008, International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, $ World Oil (+NGL) Production 2007$ (BP, 2008) kb/d (EIA, June 2008) ,000 95,000 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 EIA and BP Statistical Review 2008 kb/d 12 6

7 World Oil (+NGL) Production How Good Are Forecasts? Mb/d US domestic oil production AEO 1985 AEO 1991 AEO 1995 AEO 2000 AEO 2002 AEO 2004 AEO 2006 AEO 2008 Actual EIA: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook,

8 The Second Trillion USGS (2000) World Oil OPEC BP O&GJ International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook USGS, U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000, Gb The third trillion : 2. Technology (a) Discovering the undiscovered. (b) Producing the unproductive. (c) Unconventional sources. New discoveries. Enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Oil sands and oil shale. 16 8

9 (a) World Oil Reserves and Resources International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves 2005 OECD/IEA, 2005: Figure ES1, page 17, used with permission. 17 World Oil Production by Source International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves 2005 OECD/IEA, 2005: Figure 2.1, page 41, used with permission. 18 9

10 Top World Oil Producers, 2006 (thousand barrels per day) 1 Saudi Arabia 10,665 2 Russia 9,677 3 United States 8,330 4 Iran 4,148 5 China 3,845 6 Mexico 3,707 7 Canada 3,288 8 United Arab Emirates 2,945 9 Venezuela 2, Norway 2, Kuwait 2, Nigeria 2, Brazil 2, Algeria 2, Iraq 2,008 Source: EIA

11 12,000 Saudi Arabia Oil Production 10,000 8,000 kb/d 6,000 4,000 2, Source: EIA June 2008 International Petroleum Monthly Working Harder to Find Oil Stuart Staniford, March 2,

12 Effectiveness of Wildcat Drilling International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook Effectiveness of Wildcat Drilling 24 12

13 Total Upstream Costs per Barrel 25 (b) Enhanced Oil Recovery Increasing recovery factor by recovering left-behind oil. 10% of US oil production for more than 10 years. Thermal methods. CO 2 methods. Chemical methods

14 Recovery Factor 27 Thermal Enhanced Oil Recovery kb/d Dr. Abdul Muin, BPMIGAS The 4th Workshop of Indonesia PPM Case Study June 13-17, 2006, Jakarta

15 CO 2 Enhanced Oil Recovery US since projects. > 230,000 b/d Sequestration too ASP Enhanced Oil Recovery Alkaline Surfactant Polymer (ASP) Additional 20% of STOOIP SPE (2006) Wang Yupu, and Liu He, Daqing Oilfield Co. Ltd 30 15

16 (c) Oil Sands Oil Sands

17 Oil Sands 33 Oil Sands - SAGD

18 Oil Sands - SAGD 35 Oil Sands Gas Consumption 2004 consumption 0.7 Bcf/d (Canada 7.7 Bcf/d). Producing 142 Gb of oil would need 200 Tcf of gas (Canada total reserves = 58 Tcf) carbon emissions = 45 Mt/year. Water and environmental concerns. Söderbergh et al. (2007) US imports 8.2 Bcf/d 2006 (14% of US consumption) 30 Bcm/y = 2.9 Bcf/d = ~1 Tcf/y) IEA World Energy Outlook

19 Oil Shale 37 Oil Shale geoscientist/features/page874.html

20 Oil Shale Manpower and Womanpower Who will do the work? 40 20

21 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% SPE Membership by Age 2007 SPE Membership, Excluding Student Members Average Age of Members is Age Distribution SPE ( SPE Talent & Technology

22 There are Sufficient People But Not Distributed Schlumberger: Surviving the Skills Shortage (2006) The More Distant Future Peak oil Peak gas Peak coal Peak uranium Ultimately, the fossil-fuel era will end, and the world must operate on renewable energy sources

23 Futures for Graduates Develop skills in fundamentals. Foreign language skills allow mobility. Flexibility to address new problems. Petroleum engineers today will be energy engineers in the future. 45 Conclusions Easy oil has been consumed. Plenty of difficult oil still, but demand will soon surpass supply. Technologies to improve recovery require advanced skills. Shortages of professionals in many places. Excellent opportunities for young people to enter professional careers with large challenges, great responsibility and substantial rewards

24 47 24

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